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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,721
  • Aug 3, 2008 12:27am Aug 3, 2008 12:27am
Quote
Base on from longer time frame either daily or 8 hours e.g to shorter time frame let say 5 minutes or 15 minutes!!Either you gonna go with longer time direction or seeing,guessing opposite retracement will take place and you 'd like to take advantage on that! even maybe for the short time period!!
May I add my 2 pips to this:

1. The strategy for trading with the direction of the higher time frame and trading the retracement of the higher time frame is not the same. Trading retracement, it has to be quick and be very alert to the "possible" end of retracement, as what come after this end is another impulsive push that may go beyond where the retracement started. In other words: don't overstay.

2. Trading retracement may be opposing the the initial direction of the scout, if I already have one. This look to me like I am contradicting myself.

3. No matter trading with the direction of higher time frame or retracement, if the PA dose not show corresponding characteristics, better adjust the trading plan (attacking/unwinding skew) accordingly. Square and reaccess if necessary.
  • #4,722
  • Aug 3, 2008 12:27am Aug 3, 2008 12:27am
After reading this WHOLE Thread and seeing a big joke of all time!! I'm not sure..I could spin yarns about a duck crossing a road..that won't make you a better trader...and does TA work...no..but your own mind works to find your own trading style..that fits YOU!! not this mindless dribble...if fti is what he is...let's see the charts the account and what you do......there is a old saying in america...not even old..the prove is in the pudding!!..and don't talk the talk walk the walk!!
  • #4,723
  • Aug 3, 2008 3:06am Aug 3, 2008 3:06am
hi fti !
Can you please explain more about that topic!!!
that you're talking in these paragraph
""Can you under stand life and its mystries, You cannot as long as you try to grasp it,
just as you cannot walk off with a river in a bucket.
If you try to capture a river in a bucket, it is clear that you go not understand it
and you will always be disappointed for in the bucket is not the river.
To have the river, you must let go and let it run."

"Music is a delight because of its rhythm and flow.
Yet the moment you arrest the flow
and prolong a note or chord beyond its time the rhythm is destroyed."

Not so unlike rivers and music , the markets flows.
It is not the market that you have to content with it is 'YOU'.""
thanks again!!
  • #4,724
  • Edited 6:51am Aug 3, 2008 4:10am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting luSan
Look at this chart...It looks like a downtrend...LL and LH, Right?...Note yesterday, a white bar with a huge upper shadows...Bearish, right? So I would think that this a safer trading direction than Euro long next Monday.

Regards,
I believe fti also looks at the hourly trend, which would be more applicable to the 5 min chart.
  • #4,725
  • Edited 9:22am Aug 3, 2008 8:39am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting Zoran
I believe fti also looks at the hourly trend, which would be more applicable to the 5 min chart.
Probably...I am inspecting the thread seeking for this information...Last night I matched the recent 1D and 1H; I include these charts here for you enjoyment...

Clearly all retracements are shown in the 1H...So if I had been a dollar bull and found myself in trouble, THEN I only had to wait -and rescue) and the trend would have saved my skin...

Likewise, if I have been a dollar bear during this period..the bus would have run over me...unless I rescued fast or bailed out...we have to choose...I think the going with 1D would have been safer...

No prediction here, but standard candle analysis...for me the long legged doji at the top and next bearish bar with LL and LH would make me think of a top...which was confirmed with on the 4th bearish bar: Minor LH and LL...or as some people would say "double top, Eva and Adam"...Gosh...

Disclaimer: I am not a trend tutor or teacher...I post this analysis with the hope of getting feedback from others and improving my skills. If this help anyone else, I would be happy. Ok?
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,726
  • Aug 3, 2008 8:48am Aug 3, 2008 8:48am
Quoting luSan
Probably...I am inspecting the thread seeking for this information...Last night I matched the recent 1D and 1H; I include these charts here for you enjoyment...

Clearly all retracements are shown in the 1H...So if I had been a dollar bull and found myself in trouble, THEN I only had to wait -and rescue) and the trend would have saved my skin...

Likewise, if I have been a dollar bear during this period..the bus would have run over me...unless I rescued fast or bailed out...we have to choose...I think the going with 1D would have been safer...

No prediction here, but standard candle analysis...for me the long legged doji at the top and next bearish bar with LL and LH would make me think of a top...

Disclaimer: I am not a trend tutor or teacher...I post this analysis with the hope of getting feedback from others and improving my skills. Ok?
hi lusan,

your explanation makes alot of sense but lets get our creative juices working. Looking at the hourly you posted, at which point of the chart do we decide that we should be a dollar bull, considering the previous candles were hugely bearish on the dollar?
  • #4,727
  • Edited 6:07pm Aug 3, 2008 9:20am | Edited 6:07pm
Quoting jest1081
hi lusan,

your explanation makes alot of sense but lets get our creative juices working. Looking at the hourly you posted, at which point of the chart do we decide that we should be a dollar bull, considering the previous candles were hugely bearish on the dollar?
Sorry jest, I do not read 1H candles...1H shows all consolidations and news impacts...difficult to read...Still 1H does look like a E+A double top...I marked the 1D where I would say that we have a bullish dollar...a bearish engulfing...

Edit: I just got back from a nice walk with my wife...thoughts...if 1D is not clear, then the 1H might be very usefull...b/c I think that early trend actions start ALWAYS from the short frame to the long frame..-see post #1420-....still we have to choose either (1) stay out and wait for the 1D trend or (2) take the 1H trend we the awareness that things could go either way...you know, bears and bulls fighting things out...
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,728
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:50am Aug 3, 2008 10:50am
Quoting jest1081
hi lusan,

your explanation makes alot of sense but lets get our creative juices working. Looking at the hourly you posted, at which point of the chart do we decide that we should be a dollar bull, considering the previous candles were hugely bearish on the dollar?
Creative juices flowing: if we are looking at the 1H chart, the best place to enter is at a .50 or .618 fib after a retracement. There is a post by Northstar (I think) on like page 72 or 73 that describes the process. It is the post that got me hooked on this thread, because I am a ".618 to .618" trader and Northstart's post sounded a lot like my trading strategy.
  • #4,729
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:56am Aug 3, 2008 10:56am
It might not be so relevant as its a diffrent time frame but I see similar formations on this chart.

post 2862 2862
  • #4,730
  • Edited 1:24pm Aug 3, 2008 12:03pm | Edited 1:24pm
Dear [email protected],
Thank you for you flattary,
I do not know where you get your information from, it is wrong.

Let me make this very clear to you.

1. I am SingaporeanPR.

2. The answer is no. I am not "Top Cat" neither was I ever on his team. In reference to the link you gave. http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs...2007/index.htm
Please have the decency to recognise that I cannot be "Top Cat" as I am of chinese decent. (if you had been reading this thread carefully)
In all fairness I tamed this cat. And my surname is neither Soh or Ling.

3. To your question, the answer is yes I was engaged with your government in the financial sector. My engagement was in assist your MOF thru their commercial bank by contract between 1995 to 1998. I was on special projects troubleshooting and I am not obliged to explain my capacity to you. If you would be so kind to be informed that I was never engaged with your bank negara malaysia. Although I am aware of forex problems that occured from 1992 to 1994.Please be so kind to realise the timeline differential. I have no information of the event other than what was reported in the media.

4. If you wish to lurk on my thread to learn trading skills, by all means. I give the knowledge freely,for whosoever that can benefit from it. However I do not appreciate your mail and therefore do not wish to communicate with you directly. Any thing you want to say to me in future , please say it here.

5. As I have mentioned in the thread, I do not wish to disclose my name and that is final.

regards
  • #4,731
  • Aug 3, 2008 12:27pm Aug 3, 2008 12:27pm
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=EQz_s8...eature=related
  • #4,732
  • Edited 1:22pm Aug 3, 2008 12:56pm | Edited 1:22pm
Quoting midwestguy94
After reading this WHOLE Thread and seeing a big joke of all time!! I'm not sure..I could spin yarns about a duck crossing a road..that won't make you a better trader...and does TA work...no..but your own mind works to find your own trading style..that fits YOU!! not this mindless dribble...if fti is what he is...let's see the charts the account and what you do......there is a old saying in america...not even old..the prove is in the pudding!!..and don't talk the talk walk the walk!!
It certainly does sound like " mindless dribble".
When luSan started his own journal about this method he explained the whole system in his opening thread. Fti took his readers on a long and boring trip to make his point. ( as if he is explaining rocket science to a bunch of pre-school children) I am referring to the war stories etc.

Your system is one of adding to negative positions ( martingale/ and or a variation thereof) . I personally have nothing against your method. I do something similar and it works!

It is your way of explaining , creating perceptions that only you can dance the perfect dance and only you can really read the market. You remind me of a certain member here on FF by the name of Twoblink and his secret sauce thread. Newbies flocked together in his thread expecting him to release the grail. It never happened ( as expected) and he dissapeared from the scene.


Again: Straight to the point opinions and teachings is what traders want.
Your method is easy and you do not have to go into lengthy lectures and funny stories resulting your readers in writing essays back to you wherein they try to interpret your teachings. Mindgames!

Now for those who want to flame me for this....the floor is yours!
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #4,733
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:10pm Aug 3, 2008 1:10pm
Quoting Zoran
I believe fti also looks at the hourly trend, which would be more applicable to the 5 min chart.
I find it. post # 555 ...surprise! it is an answer to your question.

Quoting Originally Posted by Zoran
Just some questions before you leave. I understand you mainly trade on the 5 min. What do you do to determine the trend direction? Can you also summarise what influences your decision to enter and exit a trade? What do you look for? Do you ever have targets or just ride it for as long as you can?

Quoting fti on post 555
No Zoran, I don't trade mainly on 5 min, I start there. If reading smooth I stay otherwise I change partners.
I analyst daily charts then go in at 5 min and I will dance for as long as she dance well, by the time I dance to daily chart, I leave small boy to dance with her.
So (1) check daily then (2) 5M...then he keeps going up the charts as the trading days evolves...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,734
  • Edited 1:15pm Aug 3, 2008 1:12pm | Edited 1:15pm
deleated by me
  • #4,735
  • Edited 3:39pm Aug 3, 2008 1:19pm | Edited 3:39pm
adding to negative positions is risky buisiness and can lead to very devistating results if your not prepared. I think you hit the nail on the head when you said "newbie", because there are a lot of them in the forex world who have lost their shirts do to following holy grail systems. An old instructor once told me to write my essay as if the person reading nows nothing at all about what your talking about.

A Little Knowledge is a dangerous thing and we should be happy that someone has enough decency to think about the people that have no concept.

Here is a nother good saying "If you have nothing good to say don't say any thing at all"
  • #4,736
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:21pm Aug 3, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting Cobra
It certainly does sound like " mindless dribble".
When luSan started his own journal about this method he explained the whole system in his opening thread. Fti took his readers on a long and boring trip to make his point. ( as if he is explaining rocket science to a bunch of pre-school children) I am referring to the war stories etc.

Your system is one of adding to negative positions ( martingale/ and or a variation thereof) . I personally have nothing against your method. I do something similar and it works!

It is your way of explaining , creating perceptions that only you can dance the perfect dance and only you can really read the market. You remind me of a certain member here on FF by the name of Twoblink and his secret sauce thread. Newbies flocked together in his thread expecting him to release the grail. It never happened ( as expected) and he dissapeared from the scene.


Again: Straight to the point opinions and teachings is what traders want.
Your method is easy and you do not have to go into lengthy lectures and funny stories in order to make your readers writing essays back to you wherein they try to interpret your teachings. Mindgames!

Now for those who want to flame me for this....the floor is yours!
Oh my...my friend...but AOW is everything, everything...and the stories and the philosophy...without it...I do not believes we could be sucessful...I am sorry you do not see it...the mindset...the trading psychology...Ouch!

Regarding me: please understand that I like to think...so I think all the time about fti's teachings...my own writings is my way of honoring his teachings...I have nothing to contribute but the shallowness of my understanding of his strategy...I just feel that I might have to consider closing my journal and write my notes to myself someplace else...this hurts.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,737
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:25pm Aug 3, 2008 1:25pm
Inserted Video
  • #4,738
  • Aug 3, 2008 2:05pm Aug 3, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFt76gELtS8&fmt=6
OMG it's 李克勤!

My ex-gf loved him
Take a report.
  • #4,739
  • Aug 3, 2008 2:42pm Aug 3, 2008 2:42pm
[quote=fti;1729266]Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.
....

It does not matter who is right in this issue .
The point is : who is getting result and profit by his trading method .
Whatever he wants to be, a technical analyzer - fundamental trader , . . .
As long as you win and make money it does not matter.
  • #4,740
  • Aug 3, 2008 4:17pm Aug 3, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting Cobra
It certainly does sound like " mindless dribble".
When luSan started his own journal about this method he explained the whole system in his opening thread. Fti took his readers on a long and boring trip to make his point. ( as if he is explaining rocket science to a bunch of pre-school children) I am referring to the war stories etc.

Your system is one of adding to negative positions ( martingale/ and or a variation thereof) . I personally have nothing against your method. I do something similar and it works!

It is your way of explaining , creating perceptions that only you can dance the perfect dance and only you can really read the market. You remind me of a certain member here on FF by the name of Twoblink and his secret sauce thread. Newbies flocked together in his thread expecting him to release the grail. It never happened ( as expected) and he dissapeared from the scene.


Again: Straight to the point opinions and teachings is what traders want.
Your method is easy and you do not have to go into lengthy lectures and funny stories resulting your readers in writing essays back to you wherein they try to interpret your teachings. Mindgames!

Now for those who want to flame me for this....the floor is yours!
Just reviewing weekend notes and come upon yours.
Since some are mentioning old sayings, and before I go any further I have one to.
Don't cast your pearls before swine.
There will be no flaming from me.

I hope you can have a better day.
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