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Trading Aussie Jacko Style

  • #321
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:28am Aug 1, 2008 2:28am
My sentiments exactly. I like to use 200EMA on H1 as a rule of thumb.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #322
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:06pm Aug 1, 2008 8:06pm
Quoting razldazl
As long as we are making lower lows and lower highs on 4hr+ timeframes Im not touching it...hope this helps, Raz
Hi Raz,

Why have you not gone short on this pair with apparent USD strength? There would've been a lot of pips to be had from .98 downward to now.
Expected the unexpected
  • #323
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:14pm Aug 1, 2008 10:14pm
Quoting scyang
Hi Raz,

Why have you not gone short on this pair with apparent USD strength? There would've been a lot of pips to be had from .98 downward to now.
I'm no Raz but I think I'll answer this one for her if she's still busy shopping for those Jimmy Choo's?

See, she loves to sail. She has this beautiful yacht Aussie. When there is wind, she points the boat into the wind. Then she hoists the mainsail and raises the jib. She turns the boat left and right to adjust the angle, until finally the wind is at her back, then she just runs with the wind. When the wind starts to die out, she anchors and goes tanning. When the weather gets bad, she docks and goes shopping. She doesn't sail when it's bad out there, it's very dangerous!

Darn, Raz, when are you going to finally get those sassy jeans!

Have a good weekend!
Take a report.
  • #324
  • Edited Aug 4, 2008 1:07pm Aug 2, 2008 12:09am | Edited Aug 4, 2008 1:07pm
Posted this on another thread. Take a look....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aug2montlychartke6.jpg Size: 249 KB
There is only one Certainty in Trading --- There is no Certainty
  • #325
  • Edited Aug 4, 2008 1:07pm Aug 2, 2008 12:13am | Edited Aug 4, 2008 1:07pm
another
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audweeklyaug2va2.jpg Size: 151 KB
There is only one Certainty in Trading --- There is no Certainty
  • #326
  • Aug 2, 2008 7:06am Aug 2, 2008 7:06am
Quoting scyang
Hi Raz,

Why have you not gone short on this pair with apparent USD strength? There would've been a lot of pips to be had from .98 downward to now.
Hey Scyang,
Yes there were a lot of pips on a short trade fro 0.98. But, Im a trend trader, and aussie has been in a long trend for quite some time now. When I see we are correcting I stay out of the market, like now. Until I have a real indication that either the correction is over or the trend is reversing, I sit on my hands. Counter trend trading is dangerous, and Ive worked too hard to hang on to what I have in my account, to give it all back. Im not convinced that the USD can maintain this strength there is absolutely no fundamental reason for strengthening...so I wait, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #327
  • Aug 2, 2008 5:26pm Aug 2, 2008 5:26pm
Quoting razldazl
Hey Scyang,
Yes there were a lot of pips on a short trade fro 0.98. But, Im a trend trader, and aussie has been in a long trend for quite some time now. When I see we are correcting I stay out of the market, like now. Until I have a real indication that either the correction is over or the trend is reversing, I sit on my hands. Counter trend trading is dangerous, and Ive worked too hard to hang on to what I have in my account, to give it all back. Im not convinced that the USD can maintain this strength there is absolutely no fundamental reason for strengthening...so I wait, take care, Raz
aussie had a nice run to attempt parity but alas it fell short


we should be hitting 8500 soon enough. That is where wave 1 of the ending D began


I expect the retrace to happen very soon perhaps as early as Monday morning. This means some weakness in the dollar at least for the beginning of the week. Oil should rise in the meantime and then.......

global economics will dictate where we are headed and like it or not for the world economies to recover........ that requires a strong dollar, its a simple fact you can deny for only so long. It has nothing to do with a good dollar or a bad dollar, strong or weak economy but global economics. We have seen the capitulation we needed and now its time.

Feds will raise rates and the ECB will end up having to take back the hike they took and will lower rates before it ever raises them again, time schedule for this to happen I have no clue but its coming and I have no problem saying it here.

some will slam me for it, go for it ya'll cant hurt my feelings. My bank account tells all the story I need.

remember in my room Raz I said to start to buy the dollar and you would have a nice christmas. I have many shorts in from the high 9700's and LOTS of short euro's from the 1.60's and 5900's that I intend to see pay me thousands of pips before Christmas.

Remember what I said we needed before a recovery? well we got every last one of those things.

you had a nice idea but this pair is headed down, parity might come next year but not this year.
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #328
  • Edited 8:19pm Aug 2, 2008 8:06pm | Edited 8:19pm
Quoting Tmac
aussie had a nice run to attempt parity but alas it fell short


we should be hitting 8500 soon enough. That is where wave 1 of the ending D began


I expect the retrace to happen very soon perhaps as early as Monday morning. This means some weakness in the dollar at least for the beginning of the week. Oil should rise in the meantime and then.......

global economics will dictate where we are headed and like it or not for the world economies to recover........ that requires a strong dollar, its a simple fact you can deny for only so long. It has nothing to do with a good dollar or a bad dollar, strong or weak economy but global economics. We have seen the capitulation we needed and now its time.

Feds will raise rates and the ECB will end up having to take back the hike they took and will lower rates before it ever raises them again, time schedule for this to happen I have no clue but its coming and I have no problem saying it here.

some will slam me for it, go for it ya'll cant hurt my feelings. My bank account tells all the story I need.

remember in my room Raz I said to start to buy the dollar and you would have a nice christmas. I have many shorts in from the high 9700's and LOTS of short euro's from the 1.60's and 5900's that I intend to see pay me thousands of pips before Christmas.

Remember what I said we needed before a recovery? well we got every last one of those things.

you had a nice idea but this pair is headed down, parity might come next year but not this year.
1.61 is not out of the question for EU, you said. But seriously, you should know better to not try and predict the market. AU could go from (.93 to 1.0 or from .93 to .95 range for next 5 weeks, or down to .50,) and you know it. It doesn't matter if you right or wrong, everyone just want make money. Better focus on the trading day, and not year, IMO, and I'm not slamming you, or trying to hurt your feelings, but I don't think you need to mention your bank account on here, just sounds insecure statement. You've nothing to prove to anyone, and we can't all be great traders like you.
  • #329
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:41pm Aug 2, 2008 9:41pm
trading day to day is fine when the trend is in play - more importantly at the start of the trend. But it times like these when the trend is changing you need to look out over several months to a year and really understand the bigger cycles at play.

It is imperative to watch the data. Parity is out of the question on this cycle. AU is almost into a recession. Pressure will be downward on interest rates and I tried to mention before in a previous post: people have to pull their carry trades fast or risk big losses. Many used borrowed money to place a carry trade so it can be dangerous. The trader makes on the interest rate differential but only if the FX rate is appreciating - if it drops and in this case less than 4-5% then the trade is worthless, if it drops more than 4-5% the trade is dangerous and you loose a lot of money.

This can create a a lot of selling of the Australian dollar and more money flowing back out than in.

It will take some amazing and I mean amazing stellar data out of AU next week to get it up again and I highly doubt it. If there are any surprises many economists will see them as blips on the road to a big picture which is a massive slow down.
  • #330
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:54pm Aug 2, 2008 9:54pm
Quoting mchael
trading day to day is fine when the trend is in play - more importantly at the start of the trend. But it times like these when the trend is changing you need to look out over several months to a year and really understand the bigger cycles at play.

It is imperative to watch the data. Parity is out of the question on this cycle. AU is almost into a recession. Pressure will be downward on interest rates and I tried to mention before in a previous post: people have to pull their carry trades fast or risk big losses. Many used borrowed money to place a carry trade so it can be dangerous. The trader makes on the interest rate differential but only if the FX rate is appreciating - if it drops and in this case less than 4-5% then the trade is worthless, if it drops more than 4-5% the trade is dangerous and you loose a lot of money.

This can create a a lot of selling of the Australian dollar and more money flowing back out than in.

It will take some amazing and I mean amazing stellar data out of AU next week to get it up again and I highly doubt it. If there are any surprises many economists will see them as blips on the road to a big picture which is a massive slow down.
AU up trend is just starting , EU trend is just starting, expect AU 2.0 and EU 3.0 in next 2 years. Most all pairs are carry trades, are you saying now that all pairs are down trends? Ok!
  • #331
  • Aug 2, 2008 10:08pm Aug 2, 2008 10:08pm
Quoting Clouds
AU up trend is just starting , EU trend is just starting, expect AU 2.0 and EU 3.0 in next 2 years. Most all pairs are carry trades, are you saying now that all pairs are down trends? Ok!
LOLOL

you just get done telling me how I should know better than to predict the market and you come back at another trader doing the same thing, this is why I come here now and then, to get a laugh like this

ok enough of that

I consider it my job to predict the market and take great pride in those prrdictions. Long term predictions are exactly what a day trader needs IMHO.

the person my post was intended for will understand, as for the mention of the bank account, Christmas is coming and its those predictions that will take care of the rest and have been for every dollar pair for months, everytime a dollar pair has hit a bottom or close to a bottom I have been buying the dollar. no insecurities there, its simply the facts.
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #332
  • Aug 2, 2008 10:11pm Aug 2, 2008 10:11pm
Quoting Tmac
LOLOL

you just get done telling me how I should know better than to predict the market and you come back at another trader doing the same thing, this is why I come here now and then, to get a laugh like this

the person my post was intended for will understand, others like yourself will find the wrong in it as you have and thats fine and expected from here, I understand.
Was being half-way sarcastic.
  • #333
  • Aug 2, 2008 10:12pm Aug 2, 2008 10:12pm
Quoting mchael
trading day to day is fine when the trend is in play - more importantly at the start of the trend. But it times like these when the trend is changing you need to look out over several months to a year and really understand the bigger cycles at play.

It is imperative to watch the data. Parity is out of the question on this cycle. AU is almost into a recession. Pressure will be downward on interest rates and I tried to mention before in a previous post: people have to pull their carry trades fast or risk big losses. Many used borrowed money to place a carry trade so it can be dangerous. The trader makes on the interest rate differential but only if the FX rate is appreciating - if it drops and in this case less than 4-5% then the trade is worthless, if it drops more than 4-5% the trade is dangerous and you loose a lot of money.

This can create a a lot of selling of the Australian dollar and more money flowing back out than in.

It will take some amazing and I mean amazing stellar data out of AU next week to get it up again and I highly doubt it. If there are any surprises many economists will see them as blips on the road to a big picture which is a massive slow down.
Don't forget US economy is no any better than Aussie's. The US economy in some parts already in recession.
  • #334
  • Aug 2, 2008 10:19pm Aug 2, 2008 10:19pm
Quoting Clouds
If below this line, I'm going throw in my hat and go long dollar. If it stays above this line, I'll remain somewhat bearish dollar.
Attachment
AU is way too over-sold now. I expect it to bounce somewhat. Market is already priced in 25 bps cut but last week move, seems like market has priced in even more maybe 50 bps cut already. This week RBA rate is likely to stay same according to analysts.
If we don't see a cut, this pair would likely to fly high. Even with a 25 bps cut, it would still fly high as it has been over-priced in .. imo. We would likely not seeing US raises rate until next year.
  • #335
  • Aug 3, 2008 3:32am Aug 3, 2008 3:32am
Hey guys,

Wow look what happens when Im not watching whats going on in here...I can see we have every opinion available direction-wise, time will tell who is right or wrong, Im not convinced either way for now. Im looking at my charts and they say down, it doesnt make a lot of sense (US economy = bucket of shit) but thats what they say...so Im standing aside for now. Tom youre a clever guy you said a lot of things (often right) in a short period of time, so I respect your opinion. Still, among other things its August, and we saw an all-time high in aussie and eur less than three weeks ago do you think this (long term) uptrend is able to turn around completely in such a short time? Im not convinced yet. Frankly I dont really care one way or other, but I will not be buying aussie again unless I have a confirmation on 4hr+ tf that things are moving up again. For me that means we must be making higher highs and higher lows.
And for gods sake LIGHTEN UP out there, man you guys need a holiday ....take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #336
  • Aug 3, 2008 5:24pm Aug 3, 2008 5:24pm
I think this move is helped down by general Aussie weakness across the board from the last couple of weeks as well as the dollar strength (i've seen dollar strength many times in the face of bad fundies and prophets of doom, and to be honest i don't get it either ), but I'm also not yet convinced that this is spelling the end of the longer term uptrend.

The uptrend is still very much intact in the big time frames, so right now I think waiting for a buy will reward me more than chasing the short at this point in time. It was a nice trade, but i missed it and it's too cheap for me to sell now.

So I'm staying on the sideline too, but also keeping an eye out for the possible bullish (hidden) divergence that looks like its drawing on the weekly stochastic. If we get that then it's time for me to look for my buy.

Quoting razldazl
Im looking at my charts and they say down, it doesnt make a lot of sense (US economy = bucket of shit) but thats what they say...so Im standing aside for now.
  • #337
  • Aug 3, 2008 6:16pm Aug 3, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting pipprincess
....So I'm staying on the sideline too....
Exactly. Everyone should try to trade like this http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1217805288
Attached Image
Take a report.
  • #338
  • Aug 4, 2008 1:37am Aug 4, 2008 1:37am
I prefer to do this:

When the market turns, then: http://www.jonrb.com/emoticons/type.gif

Looks like E/U is trying to turn at the moment; this tends to drag A/U up. Then again, it could be the pullback for another fall. Or it could trade in a tight range of 50 pips for the next 5 days. Time will tell! *points at his signature*
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #339
  • Aug 4, 2008 2:27am Aug 4, 2008 2:27am
Quoting pipprincess
I think this move is helped down by general Aussie weakness across the board from the last couple of weeks as well as the dollar strength (i've seen dollar strength many times in the face of bad fundies and prophets of doom, and to be honest i don't get it either ), but I'm also not yet convinced that this is spelling the end of the longer term uptrend.

The uptrend is still very much intact in the big time frames, so right now I think waiting for a buy will reward me more than chasing the short at this point in time. It was a nice trade, but i missed it and it's too cheap for me to sell now.

So I'm staying on the sideline too, but also keeping an eye out for the possible bullish (hidden) divergence that looks like its drawing on the weekly stochastic. If we get that then it's time for me to look for my buy.
Hey PP,I would be interested to see an example of hidden divergence, can you post a chart please? Thanks, Raz
Never say never.
  • #340
  • Aug 4, 2008 2:31am Aug 4, 2008 2:31am
My chart, AU may go up to the pink line at .97/.96
Attached Image
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