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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,641
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:08pm Aug 1, 2008 12:08pm
David,

no need to worry dun allow worry to cloud ur judgement coz if it does, better get out quick, if your skew is manageable u should be fine, mindset dude, baby sit it till the market closes if you have to, then cut the loss if not recovered. Some times you have to bite the bullet, you can use next week to even out the book.

The trend is with you so keep dancing. I also apologise if i had offended you in my previous post. my bad.

aux and my usd bear mates,

its hard enough to be vaguely lucky in speculating trend change in the hourly, never trade against the trend. By looking at the 1hr and daily, all of you can see that the market is already in gear 5 going south, so essentially you are all usd bears, why are you even considering a long usd position? Dont be the pig. you cant catch every swing. Screw the news, there is no such thing as PA in news, just favorable prices...

Eur's been choppy i agree, the technicals suggests to many that it may have formed some sort of base, but there is no impulse up yet, none significant, so your mindset still has to be bear till proven wrong.
  • #4,642
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:17pm Aug 1, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting fti
Hi auxesis,
I think you are not in line.
Note your comment in bold,
you are predicting with your technical crystal ball.


The market gaped away on a 1st wave push after the NFP.
I pushed for run, it failed and swang up for a search fur a top.
found it and came down for a congestion for a second test , which failed.
all the time I allowed the initial position to bleed , while on 2nd retest mild attcck sequense was initiated, the pattern is a zig zag and we are still on the 1st wave.

If you guys do not lose your crystal balls and indicators , I think you do not qualify to tell me about my technique.
It becomes ROJAK.

The impulse for EURUSD is down and the up take although is strong is ABC retracement. NO technicals would deem market bullish EUR. Show me something?

Some indicator are blinding you.
Just look at the naked chart . We have a three top test at the 80/85 zone. If any read it is a possible 3 tops. only thing is we have no chart confirmation. When you get the confirmation , I am takig profits. you watch.

Actually how can you feel anything with all the prediction in your head?

I always asked for you to feel market not feel your predictions.
Your suport and resistance thingy is goona confuse you, absolutely,

Why do you think I have no positions above 50 except for the failed attack at 67


regards
Okay, I know I am viotating my self-imposed exile from posting here, but I have been reading along since earlier this week to keep up on how you all are doing, and this post created in my mind a "must ask" question of fti, whom I greatly respect for his skills, his willingness to share and put up with all this reading and typing, and his trading courage.

You have read the charts and see the three tops in the 85 range as an indicator that you are in good shape with this trade. I read the charts and saw the 5685 area as the place to trade once it was broken, and saw the 5633 area in a similar way. I think your analysis is correct, but also think my analysis is correct, too. Are we both quilty of relying on technical analysis? Maybe our perspective is just opposite of each other: you look to charts to make your trades strong, I look to charts to pick my place to enter the battle. I do not mean to take this thread off your intended path, but am trying to take your expertise and make sense of it in my small brain. Whether we are trying to dance the dance or flow with the river, I am still trying to figure out how you see the dance floor and know where the banks of the river are, and when it is important.

Please take care of your trades before answering this, because I do not want this to take away from your focus on what is really important now.
  • #4,643
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:18pm Aug 1, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting fti
attack L2 now
Hi, fti:

DJIA is picking up now but also seems frozen. NY lunch not finished yet? Or off already to date girlfriends?

The price is moving like a turtle and snail!

Honestly, I don't have any indicators on my chart, execept a pair of EMA for reference only. Any one who talks to me about indicators, I just walk away.

@jest:

Hi, friend! No offence at all.

I felt maybe I talked to much myself, ha ha. You are right. No signs especially confirmed signs of daily trend has changed. 5520 could be a support and develop a bottom, but by now, not confirmed. This week, 5520 could be support, but next week, who knows?

@rapuduski1:

May I answer your question?

FTI saw a triple tops, it just happenned, and it is an immediate fact. You wish it be broken, it has not happened, not a fact, assumption only. That is the difference. So, what is flow with market?

Am I right, FTI?
  • #4,644
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:20pm Aug 1, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting rapaduski1
Okay, I know I am viotating my self-imposed exile from posting here, but I have been reading along since earlier this week to keep up on how you all are doing, and this post created in my mind a "must ask" question of fti, whom I greatly respect for his skills, his willingness to share and put up with all this reading and typing, and his trading courage.

You have read the charts and see the three tops in the 85 range as an indicator that you are in good shape with this trade. I read the charts and saw the 5685 area as the place to trade once it was broken, and saw the 5633 area in a similar way. I think your analysis is correct, but also think my analysis is correct, too. Are we both quilty of relying on technical analysis? Maybe our perspective is just opposite of each other: you look to charts to make your trades strong, I look to charts to pick my place to enter the battle. I do not mean to take this thread off your intended path, but am trying to take your expertise and make sense of it in my small brain. Whether we are trying to dance the dance or flow with the river, I am still trying to figure out how you see the dance floor and know where the banks of the river are, and when it is important.

Please take care of your trades before answering this, because I do not want this to take away from your focus on what is really important now.
rap,

allow me to take a dip into the hot soup. Analysis is hindsight, its a mumbo jumbo, it creates a bias, what fti explained is just some patterns why all technicians use to justify their analysis. Someone else can say, hey i see a higher low forming on the 5 mins too...it doesnt change the fact that the trend is still going down. period.

And beware of trading breakouts and SR, fti has explained the order synthetics on why these things happen. you dont want to be caught in a web.

When trading theres no analysis... just watching the flows and managing you skews in and out.
  • #4,645
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:31pm Aug 1, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting jest1081
....dont want to be caught in a web.....
Quoting jest1081
When trading theres no analysis... just watching the flows and managing you skews in and out.
And that is darn hard for US...after reading so many books about S/R, indicators, and other theories.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,646
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:32pm Aug 1, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting Green_David
@jest:

Hi, friend! No offence at all.

I felt maybe I talked to much myself, ha ha. You are right. No signs especially confirmed signs of daily trend has changed. 5520 could be a support and develop a bottom, but by now, not confirmed. This week, 5520 could be support, but next week, who knows?
bro i should address this before you get more stick from fti. Never anticipate those levels, there is no such thing as a support level in prices, it will just keep moving from one point to another, its constantly vibrating...oh the kybalion remember.
  • #4,647
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:36pm Aug 1, 2008 12:36pm
Quoting luSan
And that is darn hard for US...after reading so many books about S/R, indicators, and other theories.
i realy think if we are more or less adept at manging our skews, seamlessly scaling in and out as the market vibrates in their desired direction, it can be so much easier.
  • #4,648
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:41pm Aug 1, 2008 12:41pm
To jest and David,
Sorry, but what you say does not make sense. First, I agree that most technical analysis is just crap, and that is proven by my charts. I guess another way to put the question, using the dance metaphor, is this: if you are dancing, you must feel the market action, but must also know where the dance floor is. You can't just imaging a bunch of crap when trading and jump into price action. Fti has a trained mind and sees much more on the charts than most. Too many people are making up stuff on this thread and they are going to get killed by guessing.
  • #4,649
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:44pm Aug 1, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting jest1081
i realy think if we are more or less adept at manging our skews, seamlessly scaling in and out as the market vibrates in their desired direction, it can be so much easier.
That is what I have seen him doing the last 2 days...tango dancing...like that video about the long legs...

hey...I just dropped my Ema(12)...he uses it to feel the speed...I do not...so OUT OUT OUT...

S/R: They are great to talk about but it does not look like we could dance with them...rigid as fti would say...but good and loving decoration.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,650
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:47pm Aug 1, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting rapaduski1
To jest and David,
Sorry, but what you say does not make sense. First, I agree that most technical analysis is just crap, and that is proven by my charts. I guess another way to put the question, using the dance metaphor, is this: if you are dancing, you must feel the market action, but must also know where the dance floor is. You can't just imaging a bunch of crap when trading and jump into price action. Fti has a trained mind and sees much more on the charts than most. Too many people are making up stuff on this thread and they are going to get killed by guessing.
if that is so then i'll have to just continue doing it till i get it...

point is i do get caught in bad swings. I dont have a deep book like fti so i do take losses from time to time, but as long as i am trading the right direction im never worried abt my positions. if she decides to turn, then too bad i'll have to wind down to protect my book. Nad they are times when i am agreesively attacking and collecting plenty of foreign capital when price ssuddenly turns, no choice, book protection comes first, so i'll have to aggresively scale down.

The MO teaches to follow the trend, but more importantly, its how you protect your book and this is why i found out that using a skew worksheet degrading, it does not allow you to be flexible with the price movement, the maths should more or less be in ur head reacting and strategising as prices flow.

and i dont guess, i just pull the trade, if it fails, measure 1: rescue, measure 2: protect. When all else fails, run. fight another day on more favorable conditions
  • #4,651
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:30pm Aug 1, 2008 1:30pm
Hello
I don't really see what the problem is here. Fti has laid out a very simple technique that is easily applied and followed.
1) MM (look it up) if you are under capitalized move the decimal point over a notch or two(lot size) so you can perform rescues appropriatly.

2)get rid of all your indicators and watch price action. Look for compound chart formations.You won't see the moves your suppose to make right away but after a year or so you will get the idea.(people are to impatient)

3)trade the five minute chart and scale out as needed for rescue and the search for the over all trend

4)don't trade news releases. Be aware of them but don't trade them.

5)stick with the trend (and you hopefully won't have to change busses)

6) don't confuse fib s/r levels with your spiraling in and out sizes.

7)for new traders stick to 1,1,1, attack and 1,5 rescue

8)don't show the enemy you stop loss levels or take profit

9)get in and out of your trades quickly 7 bars max average three

10)set up the proper mind set to do the job.

I'm am not a supper trader or even a good trader. But I have read the thread multiple times and am seriously interested in implementing this technique of trading. I do see Fti frustration with people and their reluctance to stick to the thought process of the AOW and continuosly watering down the thread with basterdized ideas or rogue trading. I do appretiate people posting positions and thoughts but lets try to stick to the true concept.

Fti doesn't look to make a thread of clones but does look to build a stable fondation on which to build on.

If I'm of base I'm here to scold but please all lets get back to the basics.
  • #4,652
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:32pm Aug 1, 2008 1:32pm
Attack is off, no more clock space.

Taking profit as best I can into CME closing range.

I am out.

Quite flat , I think I lost some small change.
  • #4,653
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:44pm Aug 1, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting jest1081
if that is so then i'll have to just continue doing it till i get it...

point is i do get caught in bad swings. I dont have a deep book like fti so i do take losses from time to time, but as long as i am trading the right direction im never worried abt my positions. if she decides to turn, then too bad i'll have to wind down to protect my book. Nad they are times when i am agreesively attacking and collecting plenty of foreign capital when price ssuddenly turns, no choice, book protection comes first, so i'll have to aggresively scale down.

The MO teaches to follow the trend, but more importantly, its how you protect your book and this is why i found out that using a skew worksheet degrading, it does not allow you to be flexible with the price movement, the maths should more or less be in ur head reacting and strategising as prices flow.

and i dont guess, i just pull the trade, if it fails, measure 1: rescue, measure 2: protect. When all else fails, run. fight another day on more favorable conditions
Hi Jest,
Thank God , there are people who can understand.

The more you practise , the less mistakes, and the more polished you become.

regards
  • #4,654
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:45pm Aug 1, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting fti
Attack is off, no more clock space.

Taking profit as best I can into CME closing range.

I am out.

Quite flat , I think I lost some small change.
There are about 2 hours before forex closed. You closed all?

I follow you.
  • #4,655
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:49pm Aug 1, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting musgrove
Hello
I don't really see what the problem is here. Fti has laid out a very simple technique that is easily applied and followed.
1) MM (look it up) if you are under capitalized move the decimal point over a notch or two(lot size) so you can perform rescues appropriatly.

2)get rid of all your indicators and watch price action. Look for compound chart formations.You won't see the moves your suppose to make right away but after a year or so you will get the idea.(people are to impatient)

3)trade the five minute chart and scale out as needed for rescue and the search for the over all trend

4)don't trade news releases. Be aware of them but don't trade them.

5)stick with the trend (and you hopefully won't have to change busses)

6) don't confuse fib s/r levels with your spiraling in and out sizes.

7)for new traders stick to 1,1,1, attack and 1,5 rescue

8)don't show the enemy you stop loss levels or take profit

9)get in and out of your trades quickly 7 bars max average three

10)set up the proper mind set to do the job.

I'm am not a supper trader or even a good trader. But I have read the thread multiple times and am seriously interested in implementing this technique of trading. I do see Fti frustration with people and their reluctance to stick to the thought process of the AOW and continuosly watering down the thread with basterdized ideas or rogue trading. I do appretiate people posting positions and thoughts but lets try to stick to the true concept.

Fti doesn't look to make a thread of clones but does look to build a stable fondation on which to build on.

If I'm of base I'm here to scold but please all lets get back to the basics.
Hi musgrove,

Another one.

Oh I give thanks.
Thank You, At least My weekend will be EASY.

And for those of you that cannot see the light.
Your not gonna have nice weekend.
Read this thread , all 300 pages of it.
That's your homework

regards
  • #4,656
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:52pm Aug 1, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting luSan
That is what I have seen him doing the last 2 days...tango dancing...like that video about the long legs...

hey...I just dropped my Ema(12)...he uses it to feel the speed...I do not...so OUT OUT OUT...

S/R: They are great to talk about but it does not look like we could dance with them...rigid as fti would say...but good and loving decoration.

Regards,
Regarding the S/R comment: if this were true, then the 5585 area does not exist and should not go into the decision making process. There is no triple top...but there is and it does. These observations give us confidence in our trades once we are in them, as they did for fti today. I know he is flat on his trades now, but if this were not Friday, he might still be in them as long as the market were operating properly.

Once again, I agree with the basic premise of this thread regarding TA. However, some TA plays a role in trading and I think fti will agree with this. In fact, I detect some frustration in his comments to some traders because they do not perform, or remember, or seem concerned about some basic stuff like what the trend is, or which direction the pulse is moving in, etc. I my mind, knowing the trend is TA, knowing the price action is TA, and knowing how the market has reacted to certain price levels is TA.

I what to say here that if I did not care about the people on this thread I would not be participating. Something wierd happens when you spend weeks reading the posts of people on Internet sites like this...I guess we become a virtual community of sorts. So when I see my virtual friends entering a trade at a price level that, at least statistically, will reverse on them, then I get concerned.

I am rambling...
  • #4,657
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:52pm Aug 1, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting Green_David
There are about 2 hours before forex closed. You closed all?

I follow you.
Hi David,
OMG, where do you get all this dis information.
By the way , WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING???

regards
  • #4,658
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:01pm Aug 1, 2008 2:01pm
Quoting fti
Hi David,
OMG, where do you get all this dis information.
By the way , WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING???

regards
My platform Fxsol says it will close 4:30 PM(NY time).

I think I made a bad following. Now it is 46. But anyay, I made 40% this month(July). Should be satisfied.

I am smoking Red Marlbolo.
  • #4,659
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:05pm Aug 1, 2008 2:05pm
All the pairs, G/U, U/C, U/J, A/U, N/U is within 15 pips from the top or bottom of today except E/U!!!

What is wrong with E/U? Some body's stolp loss triggered @5525?
  • #4,660
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:06pm Aug 1, 2008 2:06pm
I have been trading all week with not much sleep each night. I will leave you for today with one thing to consider regarding the dollar, at least for the next few weeks. Unlike Europe, New York traders do not take most of the month of August off for holiday. Instead, they will take Fridays and sometime Mondays off to spent an extended weekend in The Hamptons. So, if you are planning to trade on Fridays, you might anticipate a lack of follow through in the NY market action. The big boys are at the beach on Friday when you are trading and waiting.
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