Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 228 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,541
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:44pm Jul 31, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting lilpip
Sorry, the post wasn't intended for the charts that I see up now.
I look forward to the day when I have the time and find a book that gives a simple, direct and wellrounded overview on waves.
Also, it is a goal to know enough to position myself correctly once I understand them.

For now Its just understanding the terrain of the market during each session while focusing tic by tic as we get the 7 bar movement trying to have a feel for what its trying to do.
Then its the same all over again.
As I look at that statement, believe it or not, it sounds funny but even though its grueling, and been knocked around pretty hard, those 2 sentences has developed into a passion and it brings me happiness.
If you want to read and study for the knowledge, but try not to incorporate too much into your trading, keep to the v. simple basics and don't be rigid on the rules as Fti says. The markets are highly leveraged and manipulated to a degree , wave counts, levels can be run causing those that adhere strickly to them alot of grief, confusion and pain. Just think impulse and consolidation and stick to the lessons here.

regards,

a
  • #4,542
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:57pm Jul 31, 2008 1:57pm
Lilpip,

Many moons ago, I was a sales manager (automotive field), I'd hire a new sales person, teach them how the company I worked for wanted the customers handled and the basics of selling and demonstrating a car. Knowing only that the new sales person would go out and preform great, until they got around the old sales people who started teaching them how to self manage their customers.

Before too long they were a complete mess not selling anything. It took them (if they were able to put their egos and brains aside) a while before they learned how not to be to smart for their own good.

Trading can be like that, the knowledge is good but sometimes it can get in the way if one does not know how to apply it.

hope that helps,

a

I might add, I'm that way alot
  • #4,543
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:08pm Jul 31, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting fti
Hi
I had seen lots of these in my career span. Nothing new, Now every body talk BS.

For you, if you don't tame your ways, you WILL be listed in the casualty list one day.

regards

watch it now, paul is casting his spell again.

Move the dead and wounded out to the appropraite support areas.
Those who still can walk and fire a weapon, go to counter marked BANK and replenish you weapons, we may have another battle at hand. Those fearless , you go to frontline. those prudent, go 2nd or 3 rd wave attack depending on which company you belong to.
Battlestations !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyI2tX6UCKo

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
Well said, I love it.
More pieces to the picture this week.
I look forward to identifying the 2nd line.
  • #4,544
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:10pm Jul 31, 2008 4:10pm
Quoting badxboxplayer
I have read this thread from when it first came to life..and again! just incase you thought i was just passing through!!

I am teaching my son the guitar..when he first started to learn he would do whatever i said.. no question. now he has more skills he questions me. i say try it....he then comes back and either says yes THAT works or doesnt... Sometimes it works for him not for me .....Varying styles!! But we both agree on the basics..these do not change `building blocks`. I think wot i mean is as he becomes more proficient at his chosen discipline he finds the need to question the whys? to find out why!

I know what its like teaching `hands on` and to be able to see the results of the teachin. When he first played ` live ` with my little crowd, just basic blues ad lib type .. if he got into difficulty I could `take over` with my guitar and there was no probs.. he appreciated that! now if I try to move in I get a look that says..I can do it .. which is fine ..I know how far he can go. with playin live ad lib he has to `feel` the other musicians and how the tune is going. Is this relevant? maybe ..

I wouldnt like to teach guitar over internet !! you just cant get the feel of how the student is progressing.. not that i have tried!.

Sorry for the long winded post at this time of day! just trying to put forward my thoughts on the limits of internet teaching, and how difficult never mind frustrating it must be.

Many thanks again to FTI for re-opening my eyes to this game.

David
Good analogy! I see trading a lot like playing music. Need to learn to recognize the rhythms and riffs and know which players are grooving hard and which ones are sitting out. If your technique is sloppy or you can't play in time, you'll get booed off the stage.

And you can't learn to swing by downloading TAB off the internet.

Now for all the youtube addicts (and guitar players)
Inserted Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk4DEweJy0U
Inserted Video


@lilpip, you may be right, all the keys are there and just up to us to draw them out and perfect the dance.
  • #4,545
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:56pm Jul 31, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting auxesis
If you want to read and study for the knowledge, but try not to incorporate too much into your trading, keep to the v. simple basics and don't be rigid on the rules as Fti says. The markets are highly leveraged and manipulated to a degree , wave counts, levels can be run causing those that adhere strickly to them alot of grief, confusion and pain. Just think impulse and consolidation and stick to the lessons here.

regards,

a
10-4, just need to recognize a wave 2 and 3 when I see one.
thanks
  • #4,546
  • Jul 31, 2008 5:10pm Jul 31, 2008 5:10pm
Quoting fti
Hi
I had seen lots of these in my career span. Nothing new, Now every body talk BS.

For you, if you don't tame your ways, you WILL be listed in the casualty list one day.

regards

watch it now, paul is casting his spell again.


"Move the dead and wounded out to the appropraite support areas.
Those who still can walk and fire a weapon, go to counter marked BANK and replenish you weapons, we may have another battle at hand. Those fearless , you go to frontline. those prudent, go 2nd or 3 rd wave attack depending on which company you belong to.
Battlestations !"

Quote of the week.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyI2tX6UCKo

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
Thanks for being their.
  • #4,547
  • Jul 31, 2008 7:19pm Jul 31, 2008 7:19pm
Quoting auxesis
Just think impulse and consolidation and stick to the lessons here.
I think that summed it all up for me.

Thanks a.
  • #4,548
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:16pm Jul 31, 2008 9:16pm
Hello

I just got caught up on the 30 pages I missed in the couple of days and noticed some concern over the use of this thread so I thought I would re-hash a few lessons I think are important.
1)
Rule #1 preservation of cap.
Rule #2 preservation of cap.
Rule #3 don't forget rule #1

2)This is not new. It was old when the Phoenicians were trading with the Romans and the Greek Philosophers cornered the olive oil market. This is the concept.

The percentage gain it takes to recover a loss increases geometrically with losses

% Loss initial capital % profit required to Recover
5----------------------5.3
10----------------------11.1
15----------------------17.6
20-----------------------25
25----------------------33.3
30----------------------42.9
35----------------------53.8
40----------------------66.7
45----------------------81.8
50----------------------100
55----------------------122
60----------------------150
65----------------------186
70-----------------------233
75------------------300
80------------------400
85------------------567
90------------------900

The % gain required to come back to balance (break even) will increase geometrically with your losses.
If you lose, 20% of your capital, you will have to make 25% to come back to breakeven.
However if you lose 50% of your capital, you have to make 100% to come back to break even.
So please be careful with you’re trading

3)
Do not be confused that the attack sequence and the rescue sequence both take on the geometric basis. The purpose of rescue MO is to recover the scout, when encumbered; therefore the minimum response is at least a fib progression sequence.
The attack sequence is for press therefore should at least be a reverse fib, to protect from possible retracement against position.

4)
If 1 scout was in trouble, u sent in 1 to rescue then 3 to rescue if unsuccessful, if more rescue were required then the next squad would be?

Ten, did you get it right?
Based on this progression what would be the next required rescue?
Thirty, did you get this right?
What’s next, ninety.... see now.
Lets say you use a 1,2,3
then required rescue is 18, 50, 150,

I best not show you level 3....

if you evaluate your rescue risk snowball....
now do a rough guesstimate for every pip run against you, it will cost your book?

5)
Losing money is no big deal in trading. Losing the ability to financial trade again is the pits of it. But truly losing moral, that ones incurable.


6)
I am the general, commander of my forces. As general, I am responsible for understanding where the market has been (trend lines), it’s strength (bull, bear or sideways) and on what ground it is in at any point in time (Asia, London, New York).
The general starts all the engagements with the enemy, EURO/USD or GBP/USD, the time and place is based on his interpretation of the information that he has gathered before hand. The preparations for this engagement include gauging the strength of the opponent’s moves, volatility, and direction of movements: long and short term trends.
He also chooses a strategy (buy or sell, long or short term) and asset commitments.
All this he ponders in his temple. When the plans are made, he waits for the enemy to provide an opening and the starts the battle.
Once a battle has started, the general will modify his plans to account for movements of the enemy (price action, changes of ground).
The general will not display his retreat points (stop loss points) nor will he announce his points of victory (limits). These will only help the enemy to defeat him.
Management of resources will always be part of the battle (money management).
The general will practice responding to enemy movements, honing his skills both in battle and in the practice field.
This general is a guerrilla fighter. He does not have the resources to go head to head with the enemy. The fight is always on the flanks and is not able to see the full strength of the enemy, but can feel the effects of the enemy’s movements instantly and must be able adjust his adjust his attack using discipline and methods learned in battle and instruction

There is so much more but these were a few things that caught my eye during my review.
  • #4,549
  • Edited 11:18pm Jul 31, 2008 10:56pm | Edited 11:18pm
Quoting Green_David
OK. FTI, please see the chart. Maybe it is a reference for all the friends.
Did I trade against the impulse? Would you give me my job back then?

If my positions exposed into news, as long as the size is so small that even 100 pips didn't hurt my book, that is OK. Maybe I am wrong, I will think about this again.

Oanda platform, the spreads during news will expand to 20~40 pips, my platform is OK, but I will get requotes, you get the fill with bad price a lot of times.
Hi David,

Yes,

NO.

Yeah,sureitsyourmoney, doesn'thurtmeonelittlebit. Ifyouwanttoscoutintothefigs, surenoproblem, behindhimbetterbeaverylargeBankVault. Becausewhenthefireworksbeginstheresjustnowheretohide.
Eitherfightallthewayskewingup , retreatandyourassisburnt.
DOYOUHAVEWHATISREQUIRED?

If you want to donate money , give la to the poor, sick and needy.

Iamquitesureyouwillbecomeveryrichfromtrading. Stayrich,Ithinkquitedifficult.

regards

Tell you a secret, I didn;t make any money during figs time yesterday.
I just bot EurUSD in the market during Asia Lunch,
I bot large , very very large to take profit.
Can you see the impact.And you think you need big wild movements to make money. Well you are wrong,killing half paralysted warriors is more fun and sure thing.It took me more than 8 hours to do it. Do you think you got bigger ones than me?

Yeah , be a hero trade the figs, shows you got balls huh.
Better to have barins , my friend.
Finally, Now the fat lady sings.
cu later, gotta sleep.
  • #4,550
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:25pm Jul 31, 2008 11:25pm
Hi Fti!
I've some questions about Forex that I couldn't find the answers yet!! If you help me on them I'd be very happy and thankful!!
1- Are the markets we'r trading in are really free!! Or there're some certain almighty forces has a huge effect in them!!(cb's,tier1s,tier2e.g)
2-What 's the REAL amount of the money circulate in this market!! Namely ,how those huge leveraged position effects the price action in reality!!
Assumed I engaged with my enemy and not able to see its full strength,but can feel the effects of it!To me that means it can see me!! but I can not see it!!
How I'm gonna fight against that enemy!!?Does fundamental ,technical ,sentimental analysis give us really edges or sometimes sucker us into emotional roller coasters!.Are those leveraged positions created base on Credit !!If its so that virtually boosted other parties playing against me can take me down through their highly leveraged position(Eventhough they might not have really big capital!)l Am I thinking right or I'm missing something that I don't know yet!!
3-You said Liquidity and Volume are two different things!Can you explain little bit more on that?
Thank you again!
  • #4,551
  • Edited 1:14am Aug 1, 2008 12:06am | Edited 1:14am
Quoting fti
Hi David,

Yes,

NO.

Yeah,sureitsyourmoney, doesn'thurtmeonelittlebit. Ifyouwanttoscoutintothefigs, surenoproblem, behindhimbetterbeaverylargeBankVault. Becausewhenthefireworksbeginstheresjustnowheretohide.
Eitherfightallthewayskewingup , retreatandyourassisburnt.
DOYOUHAVEWHATISREQUIRED?

If you want to donate money , give la to the poor, sick and needy.

Iamquitesureyouwillbecomeveryrichfromtrading. Stayrich,Ithinkquitedifficult.

regards

Tell you a secret, I didn;t make any money during figs time yesterday.
I just bot EurUSD in the market during Asia Lunch,
I bot large , very very large to take profit.
Can you see the impact.And you think you need big wild movements to make money. Well you are wrong,killing half paralysted warriors is more fun and sure thing.It took me more than 8 hours to do it. Do you think you got bigger ones than me?

Yeah , be a hero trade the figs, shows you got balls huh.
Better to have barins , my friend.
Finally, Now the fat lady sings.
cu later, gotta sleep.
Thanks. It is very hard to explain to you my MO over forum in detail. But your advice of no positions before the MAJOR news, is good, I will take it.

Yes, I agree to keep victory is more difficult.

David

BTW, Who is the fat lady?
  • #4,552
  • Edited 12:55am Aug 1, 2008 12:38am | Edited 12:55am
Quoting fti
[...]
Tell you a secret, I didn;t make any money during figs time yesterday.
I just bot EurUSD in the market during Asia Lunch,
I bot large , very very large to take profit.
Can you see the impact.And you think you need big wild movements to make money. Well you are wrong,killing half paralysted warriors is more fun and sure thing.It took me more than 8 hours to do it. Do you think you got bigger ones than me?
[...]
Good morning fti,

You really bought EURUSD? Or is it a typo?
I assume you bought round about at 0300 GMT.
If no typo - why did it take 8 hours to get the money?
You have been in the money nearly from the start.

I'm a little confused ...
What type of dance was it?
Based on a highertimeframe (H1 ?) I assume.
Can you please give me some more details.

Thanx!

Edited: Ok - forget about my questions. It was just before my first cup of coffee. Brain was still sleeping.
You did a standard campaign. You just pointed out to david, that it took several hours to get the money and not a few minutes as with a move triggered by figs ....
  • #4,553
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:18am Aug 1, 2008 1:18am
my bias is still long dollar. only j/u is playing tricks..
  • #4,554
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:29am Aug 1, 2008 1:29am
Quoting piccolo
my bias is still long dollar. only j/u is playing tricks..
Did you back your opinion by your money?
  • #4,555
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:34am Aug 1, 2008 1:34am
Hi guys,

I send in my scout USDJPY short side.
This morning there are again strong correlations to the yen crosses, especially EURJPY.
  • #4,556
  • Edited 2:06am Aug 1, 2008 1:35am | Edited 2:06am
Quoting Green_David
Did you back your opinion by your money?
yes, I booked 37 pips already from 1.5601 on e/u but still have scouts in.

but I might be wrong. Looking at daily charts I have a feeling we will find a top and then go down on e/u.

update: actually squared now. G/U performed nicely. Anyway, I don't feel like mounting an attack anywhere.. 3 kingdoms are not in sync and this is gonna be a news after news day..
  • #4,557
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:48am Aug 1, 2008 1:48am
Quoting fratti
Hi Fti!
I've some questions about Forex that I couldn't find the answers yet!! If you help me on them I'd be very happy and thankful!!
Hi fratti
I know you asked fti, but thought I would chip in
Quoting fratti
1- Are the markets we'r trading in are really free!! Or there're some certain almighty forces has a huge effect in them!!(cb's,tier1s,tier2e.g)
Central Banks do intefere in markets. I call them the PPT(price protection team)
Quoting fratti
2-What 's the REAL amount of the money circulate in this market!! Namely ,how those huge leveraged position effects the price action in reality!!
Assumed I engaged with my enemy and not able to see its full strength,but can feel the effects of it!To me that means it can see me!! but I can not see it!!
How I'm gonna fight against that enemy!!?Does fundamental ,technical ,sentimental analysis give us really edges or sometimes sucker us into emotional roller coasters!.Are those leveraged positions created base on Credit !!If its so that virtually boosted other parties playing against me can take me down through their highly leveraged position(Eventhough they might not have really big capital!)l Am I thinking right or I'm missing something that I don't know yet!!
In average daily trades amount at the forex market reaches the point of $3.21 trillion
Quoting fratti
3-You said Liquidity and Volume are two different things!Can you explain little bit more on that?
Thank you again!
Liquidity is a level of trading activity allowing buying and selling with minimum price disturbance whereas volume is the number of transactions taking place between buyers and sellers every day.

Hope this answers your questions
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #4,558
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:05am Aug 1, 2008 2:05am
G/U scout and L1 attack finished, see 9780.
  • #4,559
  • Edited 2:33am Aug 1, 2008 2:22am | Edited 2:33am
Quoting piccolo
my bias is still long dollar. only j/u is playing tricks..
I'm watching that 107.30 area now.

Closed out the g/u after 7 bars down only to find it was to soon, lack of confidence got the best of me.
  • #4,560
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:28am Aug 1, 2008 2:28am
Quoting Green_David
G/U scout and L1 attack finished, see 9780.
L1 closed @9763
90 traders viewing now