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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,481
  • Jul 31, 2008 7:55am Jul 31, 2008 7:55am
Quoting maheswara
i somehow felt that move was coming ... somehow it was coiling up for a huge move , and yen couldnt go higher than that 108.40 in the past
Yeah - so I did a very profitable Rescue on my morning scout sold at 107.89.

Next figs to be aware of:

1345 GMT Chicago PMI
1700 GMT Mr. Paulson is speaking about economy and markets ...
  • #4,482
  • Jul 31, 2008 8:46am Jul 31, 2008 8:46am
Chicago PMI published with: 50.8 (49 expected)
  • #4,483
  • Jul 31, 2008 8:52am Jul 31, 2008 8:52am
Quoting Green_David
Sure. Alive, waiting for right time to rescue. There are other two data release to come. wait.
Hope that you have rescued your position (@13:50 GMT).
  • #4,484
  • Edited 9:23am Jul 31, 2008 9:07am | Edited 9:23am
Hi ALL,
just got home. Had a nice dinnerout.
Woh, what a horrible response, to unemployment.
Looks like 15550 not coming ,huh.
Looks like crystal ball not useful, huh.lol.

Charts looks weird, seems USD bulls insist to defend greenbag , even after bad figs. Ok lets see if more figs will come.
Powerful defenders.eh, i guess thats what they mean by raging bulls. LOL


regards.
  • #4,485
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:09am Jul 31, 2008 9:09am
Quoting fxa
Hope that you have rescued your position (@13:50 GMT).
Thanks.

My size is not big, still far from loss control level. See sharp pullback and 1H chart, the bears not that strong.

If the prices go up again, it will give me opportunities to rescue again, if the prices continue to go down, my positions will be in the money.
  • #4,486
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:11am Jul 31, 2008 9:11am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
just got home. Had a nice dinnerout.
Woh, what a horrible response, to unemployment.
Looks like 15550 not coming ,huh.
Looks like crystal ball not useful, huh.lol.

regards.
Hi, FTI. Money gone while eating.

So do you agree that the bears are not that strong?
  • #4,487
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:24am Jul 31, 2008 9:24am
oh dear..I was busy with work and missed this whole move.
  • #4,488
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:26am Jul 31, 2008 9:26am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
just got home. Had a nice dinnerout.
Woh, what a horrible response, to unemployment.
Looks like 15550 not coming ,huh.
Looks like crystal ball not useful, huh.lol.

Charts looks weird, seems USD bulls insist to defend greenbag , even after bad figs. Ok lets see if more figs will come.
Powerful defenders.eh

regards.
The Chicago PMI gave them some hope:

1. PMI itself rose from 49.6 jun to 50.8 Jul
2. New orders rose from 52.0 Jun to 53.3 Jul
3. Prices paid Index rose from 85.5 Jun to 90.7 Jul

Last one points to increasing inflation ....
  • #4,489
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:32am Jul 31, 2008 9:32am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, FTI. Money gone while eating.

So do you agree that the bears are not that strong?
Hi David,

It seems so on the charts but very whippy action.
Seems you carried positions into figs?


Could you please recap your positions for my info. thanks


regards
  • #4,490
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:36am Jul 31, 2008 9:36am
Quoting fti
Hi David,

It seems so on the charts but very whippy action.
Seems you carried positions into figs?

regards
Yes. I reduce G/U positions with +pips before figs. I never close all before the figs to prevent emotional urge to be a pig. But the size is small, 100 more pips against me, it's still quite OK.
  • #4,491
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:44am Jul 31, 2008 9:44am
See the big GU drop? G/U is like this, if you are familiar with this girl's temper and dancing, rescue could be very easy.

Why no a big increase again so to give me another chance to rescue? Come on...
  • #4,492
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:49am Jul 31, 2008 9:49am
Quoting fti
LOL, here's to performing and mentoring.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jpg-KIKD5gU
Why thats not only hilarious its perfect Henry, we all eventually get a feel for the rhythem and all are in tune.
I hope everyone likes bananas it may be a long ride before we get there.
  • #4,493
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:49am Jul 31, 2008 9:49am
Quoting Green_David
Yes. I reduce G/U positions with +pips before figs. I never close all before the figs to prevent emotional urge to be a pig. But the size is small, 100 more pips against me, it's still quite OK.
So you took a gamble, ok now you are wrong.
So you wanna trade against impulse?
and mount rescue?
and that is protecting your book?

Please think clearly. before you decide to do any thing rash.
you are not careful.
If you were trading for me,
I am sorry but you just lost your job !

regards
  • #4,494
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:50am Jul 31, 2008 9:50am
Come back USD bears! And deep into my territory, I will cut your heads again!

Now no loss at all!
  • #4,495
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:53am Jul 31, 2008 9:53am
Quoting Green_David
Come back USD bears! And deep into my territory, I will cut your heads again!

Now no loss at all!
I don't care even if you make money, you still lose your job !.

yeah you were only lucky this time.
One day they will get you.

regards
  • #4,496
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:55am Jul 31, 2008 9:55am
Hi ALL,
the USD bulls seem back, prepare for action.
Remember yoiu are still on your own.
Think , then feel her, and flow like the river.

Green _David, you are a nice man,.
But please surrender your dealing security card at HR,
also please surrender all your credit cards and staff pass,
I hope you shouldfind a good job at the casinos. Much as we have resources, but it is insufficient to support the God of Gamblers.


regards
  • #4,497
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:57am Jul 31, 2008 9:57am
Quoting fti
So you took a gamble, ok now you are wrong.
So you wanna trade against impulse?
and mount rescue?
and that is protecting your book?

Please think clearly. before you decide to do any thing rash.
you are not careful.
If you were trading for me,
I am sorry but you just lost your job !

regards
fti, please explain a little more. I saw you ride through the news fully loaded just 2 days ago. If you leave a scout open through news.. is it a firing offense?

cut loss before news would have been best action here? (not looking at hindsight which turned out to be favorable for both sides).

I want to learn from these mistakes.
  • #4,498
  • Jul 31, 2008 9:58am Jul 31, 2008 9:58am
wow , the whole swing got wiped out , yen still holding some though ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #4,499
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:04am Jul 31, 2008 10:04am
Some more hope for USD bulls???

US Kansas City Fed MFG Production Index +21 Jul from -13 Jun
  • #4,500
  • Jul 31, 2008 10:04am Jul 31, 2008 10:04am
Quoting piccolo
fti, please explain a little more. I saw you ride through the news fully loaded just 2 days ago. If you leave a scout open through news.. is it a firing offense?

cut loss before news would have been best action here? (not looking at hindsight which turned out to be favorable for both sides).

I want to learn from these mistakes.
It is because David wanted to mount a rescue against the impulse i think.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
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