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Trading Aussie Jacko Style

  • #301
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:26am Jul 30, 2008 7:26am
Just a possibility
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  • #302
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:39am Jul 30, 2008 8:39am
Isn't that an actual graph?
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #303
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:36pm Jul 30, 2008 2:36pm
Well I am in at .9443 I couldn't resist giving this AUD a crack. too tempting really given the shenanigans of the EURUSD of late.

I Have a fixed S/L just below the last bottom at .9410 and a 45 pip TSL.

Lets see....
  • #304
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:52pm Jul 30, 2008 2:52pm
Why would the forecast be so much lower than previous? Is it a 'freebie' for the Aussie?

9:30pmAUD
Retail Sales m/m

Forecast 0.1%
Previous 0.7%
  • #305
  • Jul 30, 2008 3:14pm Jul 30, 2008 3:14pm
Quoting PippinL
Well I am in at .9443 I couldn't resist giving this AUD a crack. too tempting really given the shenanigans of the EURUSD of late.

I Have a fixed S/L just below the last bottom at .9410 and a 45 pip TSL.

Lets see....
nice r:r at least...
Never say never.
  • #306
  • Jul 30, 2008 3:15pm Jul 30, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting Clouds
Why would the forecast be so much lower than previous? Is it a 'freebie' for the Aussie?

9:30pm AUD
Retail Sales m/m

Forecast 0.1%
Previous 0.7%

Surprise to the upside in store?
Never say never.
  • #307
  • Jul 30, 2008 3:22pm Jul 30, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting razldazl
nice r:r at least...
Ye, and as at now, I'm making more on swaps! lol

Looks positive though. we will see!
  • #308
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:12pm Jul 30, 2008 5:12pm
Came very close to bouncing of the 50 fib.
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  • #309
  • Jul 30, 2008 6:32pm Jul 30, 2008 6:32pm
bad data, long still intact, Sl .94
  • #310
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:30pm Jul 30, 2008 7:30pm
Aus in at 9434, Eur in at 15540.

Might tighten sl on friday for conservative trading against USD strong data.

Guess what holds for nfp, wouldn't it be good for some more strong usd data...
Still waters run deep
  • #311
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:59pm Jul 30, 2008 9:59pm
RBA meeting is next Tues and the market will be waiting to take direction from their statement.

The data coming out is building pressure for rates cuts sooner:

http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...-31037,00.html

anyone know where I can see the number of trades/positions. Buy/sell/hold orders?
  • #312
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:33am Jul 31, 2008 3:33am
Well my s/l proved a little on the tight side but I survived the bad data in the wee hours.
The fundamentals do not look good for this trade however and I think good usa data later could sink the trade well below my s/l.

Before Jacko taught me to sit on my hands, I would have been tempted to take a small profit on this and seek another opportunity. Like the EUR/USD, the sudden strengthening of the Dollar is thwarting our trend resumption.
  • #313
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:58am Jul 31, 2008 4:58am
Quoting PippinL
Well my s/l proved a little on the tight side but I survived the bad data in the wee hours.
The fundamentals do not look good for this trade however and I think good usa data later could sink the trade well below my s/l.

Before Jacko taught me to sit on my hands, I would have been tempted to take a small profit on this and seek another opportunity. Like the EUR/USD, the sudden strengthening of the Dollar is thwarting our trend resumption.
Well, you arent risking many pips so thats good. It is worth a try I think, as I said good r:r. I am waiting to see if the bottom is broken on this dip or if we close above the low (4hr +) before making new highs, then I will get in again. Same with eur. And you know I dont think its so bad to take profit although I find it difficult to do so, but you could take profit after you reach the distance to your stop ie if your stop is 45 take some off the table at +45 and just leave your stop where it is...then move it up as the market proves you right. Worst case scenario would be breakeven and your trade would have more room to move. This is a take profit strategy used on the DIBS thread, but I think it could be applied to longer term trades as well. Possibilities possibilities...Raz
Never say never.
  • #314
  • Jul 31, 2008 5:09am Jul 31, 2008 5:09am
Quoting razldazl
Well, you arent risking many pips so thats good. It is worth a try I think, as I said good r:r. I am waiting to see if the bottom is broken on this dip or if we close above the low (4hr +) before making new highs, then I will get in again. Same with eur. And you know I dont think its so bad to take profit although I find it difficult to do so, but you could take profit after you reach the distance to your stop ie if your stop is 45 take some off the table at +45 and just leave your stop where it is...then move it up as the market proves you right. Worst case scenario would be breakeven and your trade would have more room to move. This is a take profit strategy used on the DIBS thread, but I think it could be applied to longer term trades as well. Possibilities possibilities...Raz
Excellent food for thought. Thanks Raz. I do believe that the AUD was oversold otherwise the overnight bad AUD retail data would have had a more profound effect. So I'll stick with the trade. Anyway, as you say the RR is good and I will re-enter later if this one fails.
  • #315
  • Jul 31, 2008 8:30am Jul 31, 2008 8:30am
It seems that my thoughts in my post before last came to fruition. Stopped out. but in fairness it was a bit tight s/l as the 9400 hasn't been breached as yet.
  • #316
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:10pm Jul 31, 2008 1:10pm
Quoting PippinL
It seems that my thoughts in my post before last came to fruition. Stopped out. but in fairness it was a bit tight s/l as the 9400 hasn't been breached as yet.
Hmm
I always thought if we started making lower lows its a bearish signal, so I would have thought having your stop under the low at 0.9411 would have been room enough...keep an eye on gold, if it breaks the low at 893.8 aussie may continue down. Anyway, NFP tomorrow so I will wait until next week now I think. Take care all, Raz
Never say never.
  • #317
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:16pm Jul 31, 2008 1:16pm
If below this line, I'm going throw in my hat and go long dollar. If it stays above this line, I'll remain somewhat bearish dollar.
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  • #318
  • Jul 31, 2008 2:40pm Jul 31, 2008 2:40pm
Looking pretty much like poo. July total =+92
Never say never.
  • #319
  • Jul 31, 2008 8:30pm Jul 31, 2008 8:30pm
Quoting razldazl
Looking pretty much like poo. July total =+92
How much farther down does this thing have to go, Raz?
Expected the unexpected
  • #320
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:43pm Jul 31, 2008 11:43pm
Quoting scyang
How much farther down does this thing have to go, Raz?
As long as we are making lower lows and lower highs on 4hr+ timeframes Im not touching it...hope this helps, Raz
Never say never.
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