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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,441
  • Edited 3:25am Jul 31, 2008 3:02am | Edited 3:25am
Quoting DutchAngel
I am glad to hear this. I felt bad that my post seemed to be the trigger to your biased mindset. I was reminded of one of the first rules of trading I was taught which was to ignore all news and opinions and in fact if I had the balls, to do the opposite of what was headlining.

Although painful for you, this was an invaluable lesson for all of us. Damage is part of the battle. At one stage in this thread, Leigh was saying that losses were no longer necessary, that we could turn every trade into a winning trade, and although I knew you disagreed with her, neither of us corrected her strongly enough.


There may be dangers in this way of training, but what are the alternatives. You have immense knowledge and a generous heart. You are willing to share this and your time at no cost. For this I am eternally grateful.
I respect you and reading posts by other members here, we all wish you to continue this journey we have embarked on, but if it is to detriment of your book it is obviously not viable for you.

As I am late in this discussion, have tried to keep my response as short as possible.
Hi DutchAngel,
Don't go taking guilt trips, the mistake was mine.
Absolutely no doubt about it, it was mindset, and no one can affect me there, except my own little scorpion.

Lots of refreshers, on mindset, ego....

regards
  • #4,442
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:09am Jul 31, 2008 3:09am
Quoting jest1081
fti is this the reason why you said that its usually eurusd that leads the kingdoms?
Hi jest,
No, no one kig actually leads, they all have their affairs.
By the way did I ever said that?
I do Eur for sntimental reasons and mostly I always trade the most liquid markets, lest I run into manipulation in thin trading. Thin markets are easier to be manipulated by big money. And its hard to fight big money.

regards
  • #4,443
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:15am Jul 31, 2008 3:15am
Quoting Green_David
How come? forexfactory is -20k, -20k.

Still be careful the size, maybe there would be wave 3 for E/U G/U.

@fti, would it possible?
Hi David, good questiom for FF owners.

I don't know if there will be another wave.
What I am seeing is USD bulls rested for a little while.
If those yen hits the market again, probably be another run.
It depends on them, I guess.

For noe it seems the USD bear are running out of steam.

regards
  • #4,444
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:17am Jul 31, 2008 3:17am
Quoting fti
Hi jest,
No, no one kig actually leads, they all have their affairs.
By the way did I ever said that?
hehe,
well you did say something along those lines.
i can't rem when tho, will have to dig, you were explaining the schematics of the 3kings.

you said if we watch the action of the 3 pairs closely, we will often see eur moving first followed by the other 2. glad we cleared this up.
  • #4,445
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:23am Jul 31, 2008 3:23am
Quoting MaMood
Yeah - the good old DM.
At that times i could buy for example a pizza (typical italian food) for 8 DM.
Now I have to pay 8 EUR (ratio between EUR/DM is 1.95583)
Hi MaMood,
Count your lucky stars that you were on the easy side of the wall.
Think what life had be like if you had Rentenmark/Reichsmarks or Oseischmarks ( forgot how to spell this East German marks) in your pocket.

regards
  • #4,446
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:24am Jul 31, 2008 3:24am
Quoting fti
I feel that what DutchAngel uncovered, is not over yet.
If anything this may be with us for sometime to come.
On an on and off basis, be forewarned.

Evey time the the 3kigs seems fuuny ,
rest assure that it is the yen game of the moment.

regards
but the yen been funny too , its momentum would abruptly die ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #4,447
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:29am Jul 31, 2008 3:29am
Quoting Green_David
How come? forexfactory is -20k, -20k.

[...]
I don't know.
Could be the difference between adjusted and unadjusted numbers.
The expectations may vary from survey to survey.
Don't know the FF sources.
I'm most often relating to DowJones NewsWire ...

Nevertheless, both are allmost inline with expactations ....
  • #4,448
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:39am Jul 31, 2008 3:39am
Quoting maheswara
but the yen been funny too , its momentum would abruptly die ...
Hi maheswara,
of course.

If you had lots of USD to buy and you took all the offers out. You wouldn;t want to move the market makers. Not until you had bot enough. Only after you are satisfied, would you want her to move, right.

Similarly if the market retaced on your position , it would be advantages for you to bargain hunt, right? Wonder why the USD/Yen never retraces and move steadily. It seem buyers don't want to scutter markets. If the market tries to run away , they will mobilise resources to imobilise it.

Thats y I call it manipulation. All is at their mercy. I prefer liquid markets try manipulate those.

regards

For evey bull , if not for the bears on the other end . the prices will only be gapping and you have incoherent charts.
Also if not for market makers sweeps, all buys will sit on the bid end and all sellers the offer end , and both can sit ther looking at each other permanently.LOL Wait for the day when all market makers are taken out of the market and all sits on elctronic book, then you can trade money changers style.
  • #4,449
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:49am Jul 31, 2008 3:49am
Quoting fti
Thats y I call it manipulation. All is at their mercy. I prefer liquid markets try manipulate those.
That is why I try to stay away from G/U.
  • #4,450
  • Jul 31, 2008 3:56am Jul 31, 2008 3:56am
Quoting piccolo
That is why I try to stay away from G/U.
Hi picolo,
Used to be there were liquidity which is very dried up it seems.
Don't be mistaken, I am taking about liquidity not volume.
Truely , liquid makets have myrid of buyer and seller,
whereas if markets comprised large trading blocks and groupings, then only got stampedes and gaps.

regards
  • #4,451
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:01am Jul 31, 2008 4:01am
Quoting fti
Hi maheswara,
of course.

If you had lots of USD to buy and you took all the offers out. You wouldn;t want to move the market makers. Not until you had bot enough. Only after you are satisfied, would you want her to move, right.

Similarly if the market retaced on your position , it would be advantages for you to bargain hunt, right? Wonder why the USD/Yen never retraces and move steadily. It seem buyers don't want to scutter markets. If the market tries to run away , they will mobilise resources to imobilise it.

Thats y I call it manipulation. All is at their mercy. I prefer liquid markets try manipulate those.

regards

For evey bull , if not for the bears on the other end . the prices will only be gapping and you have incoherent charts.
Also if not for market makers sweeps, all buys will sit on the bid end and all sellers the offer end , and both can sit ther looking at each other permanently.LOL Wait for the day when all market makers are taken out of the market and all sits on elctronic book, then you can trade money changers style.
yes if we translate the chart , means no1 wants to buy above 108.25 and no1 is willing to sell their usd either ...
if they are not willing to sell usd they must be expecting higher price to come shortly , but no1 wants to take the market to that price ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #4,452
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:01am Jul 31, 2008 4:01am
Euro zone CPI flash estimate: +4.1% (+4.2% expected)
Euro zone Jobless claims 7.3% (7.2% expected)
  • #4,453
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:05am Jul 31, 2008 4:05am
Quoting piccolo
I have some scout and rescue troops stuck on long dollar:
S x 6 x E/U x @ around 1.5585 average

now sent in another rescue mission:
S x 5 x E/U x 1.5624
last rescue posi out, don't want to stay in for too long
B x 5 x E/U x 1.5616, some pips booked.
reason is PA in U/J and G/U..

update: seems I was too hasty..
  • #4,454
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:13am Jul 31, 2008 4:13am
Quoting MaMood
Euro zone CPI flash estimate: +4.1% (+4.2% expected)
Euro zone Jobless claims 7.3% (7.2% expected)
hi,
Thanks MaMood, looks like we can all go to utube and listen to banana song. kepp some usd you may need it for admission.

regards
  • #4,455
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:16am Jul 31, 2008 4:16am
Quoting piccolo
last rescue posi out, don't want to stay in for too long
B x 5 x E/U x 1.5616, some pips booked.
reason is PA in U/J and G/U..

update: seems I was too hasty..
Hi
Ai Ya you could have got 05 from me la. later i making 50/60 big fig is 5 ok, just jesting.
ok, go find some ways to spend it. I am happy, you rescued well.


regards
  • #4,456
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:23am Jul 31, 2008 4:23am
Quoting fti
Hi
just jesting.
regards
hey, you called?

okay, its official, im bored.
  • #4,457
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:26am Jul 31, 2008 4:26am
Quoting jest1081
hey, you called?

okay, its official, im bored.
Then go play banana song at utube. LOL
I think oasis is opening soon !. mayb alrady open.


regards
  • #4,458
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:26am Jul 31, 2008 4:26am
Quoting jest1081
hey, you called?

okay, its official, im bored.
Yeah i have been listen to latin guitar for 3 hours haha good stuff
Inserted Video
  • #4,459
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:32am Jul 31, 2008 4:32am
Quoting fti
Then go play banana song at utube. LOL
I think oasis is opening soon !. mayb alrady open.


regards
by chance, are you looking at the aussies.
heard the housing slump has hit our mates.
  • #4,460
  • Jul 31, 2008 4:34am Jul 31, 2008 4:34am
Quoting fti
[....]

If you had lots of USD to buy and you took all the offers out. You wouldn;t want to move the market makers. Not until you had bot enough. Only after you are satisfied, would you want her to move, right.

[...]
Ok.
But if it were me that has to buy the USDs, I would take advantage of especially illiquid market situations i.e. when London or US boys are out for lunch, to bring the price down in my direction. And buy them later, when the boys are back.
Is that the standard behavior?
If not, why not ???
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