Attachments: Super Carry Trade Trading System

Super Carry Trade Trading System

#561
Jul 28, 2008 9:50am Jul 28, 2008 9:50am

Richard7
| Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Guitar Player/Trader | 180 Posts

Quoting gnllr

Disliked

You got it. You may have been combining two different variations into one method -- Dreamliner's original method and Scottie's version with the tops. I've gathered three good methods from this thread:

1. Dreamliner's original (Post 1)
2. Scottie's (top averaging, saving spread costs and lowering DD)
3. Ftraderx (conservative method which lowers DD)

Dreamliner will be sharing his modifications soon as well.

Glen

Let's vote this thread up...It's had my 5 stars.

Ignored

Glen,

Thanks. You are absolutely right, I had gotten Scottie's mixed in there. I like Scottie's method; it's just a little too 'hands on' for my time constraints.

Anyway, five stars from me too.

Cheers,
Richard

#562
Edited 11:51am Jul 30, 2008 11:31am | Edited 11:51am

igmak
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 859 Posts

Really interesting system.

Started testing on 7/21/08 and .68% up so far on my DEMO.

I use ladder 10TP with 16 pip length from each other, in order to get rid of danglers or hitting TP while getting new position.

Average spread on Oanda is 6.25 = (4.5 + 8) / 2

I use 1% on each position.
Enter new position between NY and Tokyo time.
New position entry only if market price -150 or less from the average.

Will post new results next week.

Do not follow my trades. Trade what you see on your own charts.

#563
Aug 1, 2008 10:18am Aug 1, 2008 10:18am

Mombone
| Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 169 Posts

Any news on EA?? On draw down ti opened new position but did not start new ladder. Did I mess something up??

Thanks
Mombone

#564
Aug 1, 2008 10:45am Aug 1, 2008 10:45am

ronaldosim
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 100 Posts

Quoting Mombone

Disliked

Any news on EA?? On draw down ti opened new position but did not start new ladder. Did I mess something up??

Thanks
Mombone

Ignored

Zen's EA has a divide by zero error that stops the EA from working. he is working on it.

#565
Aug 1, 2008 11:11am Aug 1, 2008 11:11am

Mombone
| Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 169 Posts

Thanks Ron. Messing with demo. Like the EA's idea.
Mombone

#566
Aug 1, 2008 5:29pm Aug 1, 2008 5:29pm

dragosd1
| Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 572 Posts

Quoting hayseed

Disliked

hey fxhound.... pride has nothing to do with it, nor does ego , nor does being a man.....h

Ignored

Hi, Hayseed
I found this thread one hour ago, just finished readind it, I use carry/hedge trading for almost a year now, and I have a ideea:
how about making a reverse EA (to act completely reverse) to attach it on a CHFJPY or USDJPY chart.As GBPJPY and any of this pairs are strongly correlated, we suppose to have a minimal drawdown everytime (sure, a reduced swap earning). Could you try to reverse everything, I ave tried, but I have not the necessary skills to do it.... so, it didn't work.
Please help me as I want to run a forward test in this formula.....

I don't say

#567
Aug 1, 2008 7:47pm Aug 1, 2008 7:47pm

hayseed
Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts

hey dragosd1...... got your pm.... will see if it can be done.....

this was from a good while back.... several here really weren't interested in ea's , some were quite colorful with there opinions..... so i moved on.....

you asked about threshold..... there was some discusion about when to add orders in the average down theme..... the 'threshold' option allows you to set the point where those orders start......

all we did was add a version of dreamliners rules to timefreedoms ea.....h

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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h

#568
Aug 1, 2008 7:51pm Aug 1, 2008 7:51pm

dragosd1
| Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 572 Posts

Hi, thank's for your reply. Yes, I know, I have studied the strategy, but I don't think it's ok to make 10 average sets (main order + buy orders) in a 150 pips range....that is killing the account.
A logical approach is avg1 = main - treshold, avg 2= avg1- treshold, and so on.
I believe this EA will have a great future for carry trade, but please consider making even a "reverse" Ea, as I was explain it to you....
Btw, what settings are you used for this backtest? Mind to post hem?

I don't say

#569
Aug 1, 2008 9:45pm Aug 1, 2008 9:45pm

ronaldosim
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 100 Posts

Quoting hayseed

Disliked

hey dragosd1...... got your pm.... will see if it can be done.....

this was from a good while back.... several here really weren't interested in ea's , some were quite colorful with there opinions..... so i moved on.....

you asked about threshold..... there was some discusion about when to add orders in the average down theme..... the 'threshold' option allows you to set the point where those orders start......

all we did was add a version of dreamliners rules to timefreedoms ea.....h

Ignored

hi hayseed
yr EA is good; have been forward testing it and so far hv got good results;
are u using it live yrself? attached is results fr 16 Jun 2008

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#570
Aug 1, 2008 10:48pm Aug 1, 2008 10:48pm

hayseed
Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts

hey dragosd1 ..... basically that is how it is working..... we can change the code to have the user define how many orders are sent in each set.....

i don't follow your thinking about killing the account..... the orders are buystops, so until filled they should not have any effect on the account.....

can't remember what settings were before.... my default settings are tradehour '18', averagevalueincrease '30' , delay '144', lot size '0.06'..... below is the backtest for 2 years....h

//------------------

hey ron..... i used a very different version of the same theme for awhile.... it used all 6 types orders at the same time..... and worked well when used with trend type filters..... the difficulty is in controlling our enthusiasm...... kinda easy to go over board with orders.......h

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h

#571
Edited 2:41am Aug 2, 2008 1:49am | Edited 2:41am

madscalp
Joined Jan 2008 | Status: French Trader | 895 Posts

Hi traders
What EA do you tell about ?
Is it Zen Leow's ?

#572
Aug 2, 2008 3:58am Aug 2, 2008 3:58am

dragosd1
| Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 572 Posts

hey dragosd1 ..... basically that is how it is working..... we can change the code to have the user define how many orders are sent in each set.....

i don't follow your thinking about killing the account..... the orders are buystops, so until filled they should not have any effect on the account.....

can't remember what settings were before.... my default settings are tradehour '18', averagevalueincrease '30' , delay '144', lot size '0.06'..... below is the backtest for 2 years....h
[quote]

Right now I am running tests with different settings, so I will post some results next week. Regarding the "killing the account" issue, you hae to admit, at every avg position, we have at least 1 buy order dangling, so in the case that I was presented, they we're 32 open positions of 0.10 lot, the DD was huge....Maximum orders what does it affects? Buy stop orders or global positions or maximum avg positions?

I don't say

#573
Aug 2, 2008 5:16am Aug 2, 2008 5:16am

dragosd1
| Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 572 Posts

Quoting madscalp

Disliked

Hi traders
What EA do you tell about ?
Is it Zen Leow's ?

Ignored

Demo_only, you will find it in attachments

I don't say

#574
Aug 2, 2008 6:36am Aug 2, 2008 6:36am

WillemM
| Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 34 Posts

Quoting dragosd1

Disliked

Hi, thank's for your reply. Yes, I know, I have studied the strategy, but I don't think it's ok to make 10 average sets (main order + buy orders) in a 150 pips range....that is killing the account.
A logical approach is avg1 = main - treshold, avg 2= avg1- treshold, and so on.
I believe this EA will have a great future for carry trade, but please consider making even a "reverse" Ea, as I was explain it to you....
Btw, what settings are you used for this backtest? Mind to post hem?

Ignored

I have been working on a reverse version of this ea, I got a nice part ready, but there is a error in it, that gives "invalid stop" print. So, anyone interested on taking a look at it?

#575
Aug 2, 2008 7:05am Aug 2, 2008 7:05am

hayseed
Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts

hey dragosd1 ...... thanks for the reply....... ok, now i clearly see your concern about the drawdowns and fully agree with those concerns.....

'demo only' was an attempt to merge dreamliners rules with timefreedoms ea...... just a cut and dry merger......

timefreedoms ea works almost perfectly..... but still, there will be drawdown periods some of which will be extreme...... he makes it thru those hard times by methodically placing 1 new order and 1 new order only at a time..... and at a price lower than the last......

if we try to place more than 1 and in a grid fashion, the enevitable danglers will add fuel to the drawdown fire......h

to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h

#576
Aug 2, 2008 7:28am Aug 2, 2008 7:28am

dragosd1
| Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 572 Posts

Quoting hayseed

Disliked

hey dragosd1 ...... thanks for the reply....... ok, now i clearly see your concern about the drawdowns and fully agree with those concerns.....

'demo only' was an attempt to merge dreamliners rules with timefreedoms ea...... just a cut and dry merger......

timefreedoms ea works almost perfectly..... but still, there will be drawdown periods some of which will be extreme...... he makes it thru those hard times by methodically placing 1 new order and 1 new order only at a time..... and at a price lower than the last......

if we try to place more than 1 and in a grid fashion, the enevitable danglers will add fuel to the drawdown fire......h

Ignored

The thing we have to change is to place a new avg position at "threshold" distance from the PREVIOUS one or from the INITIAL position (main).After that, everything will be ok.....

I don't say

#577
Aug 2, 2008 12:11pm Aug 2, 2008 12:11pm

dragosd1
| Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 572 Posts

Ok, a preliminary test....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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Attached File(s)

Strategy Tester Report.doc 42 KB | 773 downloads

I don't say

#578
Aug 3, 2008 8:01am Aug 3, 2008 8:01am

ronaldosim
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 100 Posts

Quoting WillemM

Disliked

I have been working on a reverse version of this ea, I got a nice part ready, but there is a error in it, that gives "invalid stop" print. So, anyone interested on taking a look at it?

Ignored

hi william
bring it in; we are interested in all contributions by ppl willing to share....

#579
Aug 3, 2008 2:33pm Aug 3, 2008 2:33pm

dragosd1
| Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 572 Posts

Ok, guys, here's my observations....
Any other pair tested wth the same settings as for EURUSD leads to account dissapeareance....

(even with the basic settings that hayseed has tested eurusd). As explanation, in my testes I have used a 50,000 USD account which is similar with a 5,000 USD micro/nano acc at IBFX. The max profitability obtained during the specified period was around 10,000% (5,000,000 usd profit vs 50,000 usd deposit), but as you will see, the relative DD was huge even the absolute DD was just around 8,000 usd.So, it's very risky!
This is due the fact that the EA places every day averaged positions even at the same relative price. Imagine market is in consolidation, but we are still at AVG Price-Threshold, so conditions are met to open new average positions, so if we are in consolidation/ranging for 10 days, we will have 10 sets of average positions opened.After that, if we have a drop of 200 pips, we are DEAD! Imagine what if after this drop we enter another cons/ranging period for another 10 days - another 10 averaging positions, and after that period we have another drop...It's a fact that from all this positions we have the huge profit factor, but it's too risky! That's why none of the other tested pairs didn't survive....

So, for everyone willing to help, we need to make some adjustments to the logic of the EA, if you want a stable and profitable one...
Ok, if someone knows about PipMaker EA, it's something we need, it's logic is to place countertrend trades at a specified distance/spacing from the initial position. Spacing can be a fixed value or determined by STDDEV/ATR. It can place both direction orders buy & sell, but we are interested in buys only. So, if one of you guys (since I have not the skills) might have a look at the code of this EA to "collect" the neccesary sequence and to implement it in Demo_only EA, of course, with the author's OK, I think we can start backtesting a more stable & promising modified EA.
What do you think?

Attached File(s)