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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,261
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:21am Jul 29, 2008 10:21am
Quoting auxesis
rescue L1 @ 49
Hi auxesis,
Be a little careful, seems markets and fundamentals undertone is out of line,and I paid dearly for it. better to be flexible on this now that the market has shown, that it is under hands of control by manipulation, be nimble, for which I paid dearly not only in losses but also in lost opportunities.

So they are out to trick by info timing. When in such situation , trust the chart, not the media and info mongers. flow with it don't try to fight it. This has gone to bottomless piyt for USD bears, and many are bleeding bad still , if they are any alive. Its gonna get tricky, reset, rethink.

regards
  • #4,262
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:21am Jul 29, 2008 10:21am
Quoting lilpip
e/u 5598 area, watching it closely.
Don't try to catch falling knife.
  • #4,263
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:28am Jul 29, 2008 10:28am
Quoting fti
Just for your info, 30M chrts are OT here.
So is S/R. If you are serious to learn. The fact that you have some trading experience , it is much more difficult for you to compliment what you are used to and what has been presented. Of course you will be speaking from your perspective to learn, be prepared to take alot of heat, in your remolding.

regards
Okay, references to the 30M chart and S/R are out. It was not my intention to introduce anything new or different here, so my appologies to you, and to anyone who might find the references confusing. If I step across any other lines please let me know. As for taking heat, I simply ask for the same respect that is offered to others on this thread. If that is not possible or likely, I will stop participating now. Please let me know...I will not be offended as I developed "thick skin" many years ago.

Rap
  • #4,264
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:28am Jul 29, 2008 10:28am
Quoting luSan
Good morning again everyone..I missed the short ride..

First time I heard about scouts crossover...Maybe I missed some teaching...-I am read reading and finding many goodies among the pages-....or is this a new lesson?...
though I see the potential for advanced traders.
Hey Lusan,
Much that I respect that you may have found your niche.
Make no mistake that although you may be following closely, I have no doubt that you are on a different horse.

When I spoke about the crosses , I was talking about crossing the positions to the USD /yen to avert the exposure in USD for the figs, To be exposed on currency to currency until after the US figs. There is no new lesson. Funny that when all is presented , there you are still looking for answersthat are not there because of your own pespective. I say clearly , some answers you do not have because your MO is different. I hope you will give this serious thought, my friend.

regards

Sorry I shall be gearing into battlestations soon, and will not be posting while trading, until I get my money back.
  • #4,265
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:30am Jul 29, 2008 10:30am
Quoting Green_David
OK, I may add something besides Lusan.

When USD appreatiate, all the major pairs against USD should reflect, right? And if it happens, E/U goes up, G/U goes up, and U/J goes down, right? But they may not move with same pace. One pair may lead, the other may lag. Today, U/J make a lead, and then G/U, the last one is E/U catching up.

If they are not confirming each other, maybe something is wrong.

If you traded stocks, you will see, if GM price increases, all the similiar stocks like Ford and Chrysler shall also increase.

Hope I helped you.
Thanks for your help. We saw this today in the movements of the big three. Not sure we will ever see GM increase again, though! LOL
  • #4,266
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:32am Jul 29, 2008 10:32am
Quoting fti
[...]

Sorry I shall be gearing into battlestations soon, and will not be posting while trading, until I get my money back.

Hi fti,

take care of your mindset and the very small sleep you got.
However - wish you good success!
  • #4,267
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:38am Jul 29, 2008 10:38am
Quoting rapaduski1
Okay, references to the 30M chart and S/R are out. It was not my intention to introduce anything new or different here, so my appologies to you, and to anyone who might find the references confusing. If I step across any other lines please let me know. As for taking heat, I simply ask for the same respect that is offered to others on this thread. If that is not possible or likely, I will stop participating now. Please let me know...I will not be offended as I developed "thick skin" many years ago.

Rap
Rap,

Fti stresses having a feel for the market, and the need to be in it, (scout) and that the s/r levels mean nothing when price is moving.

The old dog I am I like to enter scouts (initial position) off tech levels, paying for it today
  • #4,268
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:39am Jul 29, 2008 10:39am
Quoting Green_David
Don't try to catch falling knife.
Thanks for the reminder as I need them.
Closed last sell that was left to run now watching area with extra attention for scout entry.
  • #4,269
  • Edited 10:53am Jul 29, 2008 10:40am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti,

take care of your mindset and the very small sleep you got.
However - wish you good success!
Hi MaMood,
Thanks for advisement, duely noted.
I am very fresh now, and all suited up for a size battle.
Funny that I wasted some range on this run. The bulls are raging, I don't know where its coming from, the bears are in pain, if any left. The screws are gonna get tight, We are trading into outside range, I have to depend on speed and size and mostly mobility, trying to avoid pig traps and ego traps, so I hope people must understand that I cannot distract my focus, therefore no lead from me. sorry.

However, please help each other in discussions/ quarrels about the intricacities of what I have tried to present, while I am at the front.

Good Luck to All.

regards.

I will come to tell you the story how I did, when suits.
  • #4,270
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:42am Jul 29, 2008 10:42am
Quoting auxesis
Rap,

Fti stresses having a feel for the market, and the need to be in it, (scout) and that the s/r levels mean nothing when price is moving.

The old dog I am I like to enter scouts (initial position) off tech levels, paying for it today
Rap, to add. Dun bother too much over SR and technical patterns or price disposition. Try as much as possible to run with the prices, else initiate a sensible rescue when wrong.

On a personal note, i try to take note of average daily range...
  • #4,271
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:47am Jul 29, 2008 10:47am
Quoting lilpip
Thanks for the reminder as I need them.
Closed last sell that was left to run now watching area with extra attention for scout entry.
I am also square and of course made less pips. The daily trend is clear to every body. Last two days, I got nothing by shorting, today I got all the book loss back and profit, and this is so called trend.

E/U and G/U seems stablizing now, but I gave up to capitalize on rebound and I am waiting for opportunities to short again after I saw a good rebound in E/U. Hope I won't pay lower prices than the prices I closed.

Good luck.
  • #4,272
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:53am Jul 29, 2008 10:53am
Quoting fti
Hey Lusan,
Much that I respect that you may have found your niche.
Make no mistake that although you may be following closely, I have no doubt that you are on a different horse.
>>>I have a ponny and you have an arabian battle horse

When I spoke about the crosses , I was talking about crossing the positions to the USD /yen to avert the exposure in USD for the figs, To be exposed on currency to currency until after the US figs. There is no new lesson.
>>>That is exactly what I understood.

Funny that when all is presented , there you are still looking for answersthat are not there because of your own pespective. I say clearly , some answers you do not have because your MO is different. I hope you will give this serious thought, my friend.
>>>I understand.. that is why I keep thinking and testing ways to trade...the fact that I have to polish a very fast style does not give much space..the funny thing is that I am getting close and closer to you...I just dropped all my loved 5M trendlines and S/R...funny...this is similar to what I was doing when I began learning from you...no much is left...and the learning curve is slowing down and turning back in itself..

regards

Sorry I shall be gearing into battlestations soon, and will not be posting while trading, until I get my money back.
No need to answer...you are bussy.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,273
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:54am Jul 29, 2008 10:54am
Quoting auxesis
Rap,

Fti stresses having a feel for the market, and the need to be in it, (scout) and that the s/r levels mean nothing when price is moving.

The old dog I am I like to enter scouts (initial position) off tech levels, paying for it today
Thanks for your thoughts. I appreciate the ideas that fti has presented as well as your help. There is a certain "zen" to all of this that is quite interesting to me. On a personal note, I agree with the notion of having a feel for the market and having a method of being connected (ie, the scout trade). This is all basic to my trading, and is all true right up to the point where my trades crash into something and stall or stop. I do not fear this happening and am quite prepared for it.

I think fti's thread should be mandatory reading for anyone who wants to trade the forex, at least if they want to trade it well.
  • #4,274
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:55am Jul 29, 2008 10:55am
Quoting Green_David
I am also square and of course made less pips. The daily trend is clear to every body. Last two days, I got nothing by shorting, today I got all the book loss back and profit, and this is so called trend.

E/U and G/U seems stablizing now, but I gave up to capitalize on rebound and I am waiting for opportunities to short again after I saw a good rebound in E/U. Hope I won't pay lower prices than the prices I closed.

Good luck.
Hi David.
Oh and forgot to thank David for his info on the stops at 25, didn't see it then,was busy doing something. It was good, wondered where you got the info from? Thanks David for looking out for me.

Please rethink that which mark out in red.
Thats wrong mindset, preconcieving action is also dangerous.
I hope you were thinking aloud, don't let it bother you when in battle.

regards
  • #4,275
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:57am Jul 29, 2008 10:57am
Quoting jest1081
Rap, to add. Dun bother too much over SR and technical patterns or price disposition. Try as much as possible to run with the prices, else initiate a sensible rescue when wrong.

On a personal note, i try to take note of average daily range...
Thanks Jest, appreciate your thoughts.
  • #4,276
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:58am Jul 29, 2008 10:58am
Warning !!!! this is a joke......please do not take to heart....anyone.......

http://www.the-lambs.org/whiff.htm
  • #4,277
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:04am Jul 29, 2008 11:04am
Quoting luSan
No need to answer...you are bussy.
Lusan, take it easy, you are a fast learner and i must add a splendid trader in your own right. But I cant help but noticing slight hints of agression in the tone of your posts lately, is something wrong?

FTI may be little edgy but you have to understand why and what he had recently gone thru. I've gone thru periods where he din reply to my posts, it sucks, but i just kept a thick face. If he's scolding your or reprimanding you, it means he cares for you, hey ur indeed the best amongst the old birds, its reflected in ur journals...so be cool

There are times when i felt that i too have nothing much to discuss or add here but i keep finding myself continually learning from the man. Since the learning curve is slowing down, then there's really nothing much other than personal experience? Keep up the splendid form buddy.
  • #4,278
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:11am Jul 29, 2008 11:11am
Two traders are about to walk into the pits the 1st turns and asks the 2nd ,”So, what are you hunting today?”

The 2nd smiles and says ”I’m hunting the European Bear.”

The 1st trader hands him a big belt with bells on it. and says “here you’d better wear this.”

2nd traders looks all perplexed, asks, “Why?”

1st trader, “Do you know the difference between European Bear and European Bull poop?”

2nd traders shakes his head no.

1st trader, “European Bear poop has bells in it.”
  • #4,279
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:13am Jul 29, 2008 11:13am
Quoting seeit
Warning !!!! this is a joke......please do not take to heart....anyone.......

http://www.the-lambs.org/whiff.htm
I loved it. Sing along with the song, then get back to tracking the market. In the forex, you are only lost if you stop looking and learning. Never thought I'd hear Bing Crosby in a forex thread! LOL
  • #4,280
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:16am Jul 29, 2008 11:16am
One question concerning your thgougts about the 3kingdoms at the moment:

Situation:
1. EURUSD and GBPUSD ar going still down
2. USDJPY ist not moving.

First point means USD gets stronger, right?
second one means Yen gets stronger? (because USDYEN did not move and USD gets stronger ...)

Where is the money flowing to?
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