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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,241
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:59am Jul 29, 2008 8:59am
Quoting rapaduski1
If we have time, I'd appreciate some additional comments on why traders did what they did this morning. It's interesting that some were trading up while others down. This is a great thread, thanks to everyones participation and especially fti's leadership.
on E/U,

I had scout in from 1.5725 on the short side, then around 1.5712 area I added attack levels 1 & 2.

I took profit around 1.5690 as because of a weird feeling that it will reverse soon.. didn't happen till now, tho.

had also 2 scouts in each U/J and G/U but they played out very similar to E/U.

PS - news came out and supported dollar bulls.. oh well.
  • #4,242
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:03am Jul 29, 2008 9:03am
rescue L1 @ 49
  • #4,243
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:03am Jul 29, 2008 9:03am
US consumer confidence better than expected. Glad I kept my G/D position open. Looks like the dollar is flying a bit here.
  • #4,244
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:06am Jul 29, 2008 9:06am
position update
Sx4x eurusdx 15660

all scouts out , loss booked.
  • #4,245
  • Edited 9:54am Jul 29, 2008 9:15am | Edited 9:54am
Quoting rapaduski1
If we have time, I'd appreciate some additional comments on why traders did what they did this morning. It's interesting that some were trading up while others down. This is a great thread, thanks to everyones participation and especially fti's leadership.
I have scout long in E/U...on 16 pips profit...long?...because of the 3ko sync..enter second wave after the news...exit when I was drunk with pips and getting close to the next level...more potential on the move...but do not want to babysit today...

I guess I was not a pig today...but a large cow..MU! MU!
84 pips and out......55 pips for the day...met today target...now I just watch you...I hope fti solved his problem...hey...he did not sleep much yesterday..I am worry.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,246
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:18am Jul 29, 2008 9:18am
Quoting fti
position update
Sx4x eurusdx 15660

all scouts out , loss booked.
Hi, FTI:

Great job!!!

This is the most thing I admire you about --- that is you can turn and never stuburn or blocked by you positions.

David
  • #4,247
  • Edited 9:58am Jul 29, 2008 9:30am | Edited 9:58am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, FTI:

Great job!!!

This is the most thing I admire you about --- that is you can turn and never stuburn or blocked by you positions.



David

Hi David,
This trade overnight and loss , is bad trade day.
Now have to make it back , will not be posting position, I gotta focus.This is because have gone level 3 scouts , so its big $ and snowballs, I cannot afford distractions. Only music.

Inserted Video

Inserted Video


Battle begin after NY lunch,

Chat later.
regards

And for all those talking S/R, I hope you learned a lesson, otherwise market will teach you.Think Carefully.
  • #4,248
  • Edited 9:44am Jul 29, 2008 9:36am | Edited 9:44am
Quoting rapaduski1
If we have time, I'd appreciate some additional comments on why traders did what they did this morning. It's interesting that some were trading up while others down. This is a great thread, thanks to everyones participation and especially fti's leadership.
Hi rapaduski,

this morning I started USDJPY the short side at 0530 GMT.
Rescue at 0620 GMT
squared.
Reasoning: After the downmove yesterday in USDJPY the H1,M15,M5 trends were looking to go again down.


0650 GMT Scout in long side USDJPY
till now a lot of attacks.
Scout still in

Reasoning: Very simple. H1,M15 and M5 changed the direction from south to north. Especially the strong moves starting at 0545 GMT on the M15 gave the first signs for my guesstimation, that this will be USD bull day agianst the yen.

Ok - of course you can call me a pig for my 180 turnaround ;-)
  • #4,249
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:42am Jul 29, 2008 9:42am
Quoting fti
Hi David,
This trade overnight and loss , is bad trade day.
Now have to make it back , will not be posting position, I gotta focus.This is because have gone level 3 scouts , so its big $ and snowballs, I cannot afford distractions. Only music.

Chat later.
regards

And for all those talking S/R, I hope you learned a lesson, otherwise market will teach you.Think Carefully.
Yes.

Still, hope you take it easy and restore energy and clearer mind for tommorow, Thursday and Friday may have really killing opportunities.

That's why I seldom post during importantant trading time either distract you or me.

Waiti until your first post after your work.
  • #4,250
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:44am Jul 29, 2008 9:44am
level 2 rescue scattered around +/- 5600
  • #4,251
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:48am Jul 29, 2008 9:48am
Oil lowest since beginning of june...
120.43 USD
  • #4,252
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:49am Jul 29, 2008 9:49am
Quoting luSan
I have scout long in E/U...on 16 pips profit...long?...because of the 3ko sync..enter second wave after the news...exit when I was drunk with pips and getting close to the next level...more potential on the move...but do not want to babysit today...

84 pips and out......55 pips for the day...met today target...now I just watch you...I hope fti solved his problem...hey...he did not sleep much yesterday..I am worry.
Thanks for your thoughts. I am still new to the thread and need to re-read part of it, but could you explain "3ko sync"? I am still working on folding into my trading strategy -- build over the last 4 years -- the information from this thread.

I am now flat on G/D and going to sit on sidelines for a while. I've been a pig all morning, but got a feeling that I was headed for the slaughter house.
  • #4,253
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:03am Jul 29, 2008 10:03am
Quoting rapaduski1
Thanks for your thoughts. I am still new to the thread and need to re-read part of it, but could you explain "3ko sync"? I am still working on folding into my trading strategy -- build over the last 4 years -- the information from this thread.

I am now flat on G/D and going to sit on sidelines for a while. I've been a pig all morning, but got a feeling that I was headed for the slaughter house.
Sorry, that is very hard to explain for me...it is still fuzzy in my head...See page 67 I think and fti shows and example...

the point is to keep an eye on the E/U, G/U and U/J...then when they get out of syn or within syn, it means something...and you can create your strategy on trend direction...for example: U/J falling...so where is Y going?...is it going into G or E or just stay out?...We talked a lot about U the last days...so I thought: they will buy U because the that is what the FED is saying...so I went long in U...Take my 2 cents with a pound of salt...I am still learning how to use the 3Ko.

Others might want share their views...I am probably totally wrong!...that is why I am reading MaMood book!...hey MaMood could I buy that book in Amazon.com?

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,254
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:10am Jul 29, 2008 10:10am
Quoting rapaduski1
Thanks for your thoughts. I am still new to the thread and need to re-read part of it, but could you explain "3ko sync"? I am still working on folding into my trading strategy -- build over the last 4 years -- the information from this thread.

I am now flat on G/D and going to sit on sidelines for a while. I've been a pig all morning, but got a feeling that I was headed for the slaughter house.
Romance of the 3 Kingdoms(Ro3K )

Generally analysis of the forex markets is confined to broad analysis of the relationship between,
1. The Allied stronghold currencies, eg the cable , EUR(lately), AUS, etc
2. The USD
3. The inferiors and exotics. eg DMK (retired), YEN, CHF, etc

Therefore the romance of the 3 kingdoms.


On the hourly you are seeing relationship abnormality. Notice how the USD is strengthening against the EUR and GBP while weakening against the yen at the same instances. So really there is much crosses tear. But its basically a tussle of the regional zones.

There’s however an invisible purpose to all this. Ponder this.
Which nation in the world is now carrying the most USD reserves and growing at hyper growth?
What exchange rate system are they on?
Do you understand managed pegging?
What sort of pressures can be imposed to them by USD devaluation?
Where is the most accessible front line markets for direct impact?
Bingo, equities!! and who to use as proxy front?


quoted from fti
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #4,255
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:12am Jul 29, 2008 10:12am
Quoting luSan
Sorry, that is very hard to explain for me...it is still fuzzy in my head...See page 67 I think and fti shows and example...

the point is to keep an eye on the E/U, G/U and U/J...then when they get out of syn or within syn, it means something...and you can create your strategy on trend direction...for example: U/J falling...so more where is Y going?...is it going into G or E or just stay out?...We talked a lot about U the last days...so I thought: they will buy U because the that is what the FED is saying...so I went long in U...Take my 2 cents with a pound of salt...I am still learning how to use the 3Ko.

Others might want share their views...I am probably totally wrong!...that is why I am reading MaMood book!...hey MaMood could I buy that book in Amazon.com?

Regards,
Okay, I will keep checking the thread for this, and thanks for your help. I think I understand, however, what you are saying regarding the relationships among the big three pairs.
  • #4,256
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:13am Jul 29, 2008 10:13am
e/u 5598 area, watching it closely.
  • #4,257
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:13am Jul 29, 2008 10:13am
Quoting rapaduski1
Yes, if you look at your 30M or 60M charts, you can see the support levels at around 80, and then 60, below which you might expect stops to be parked. Dance with it but be careful here.
Just for your info, 30M chrts are OT here.
So is S/R. If you are serious to learn. The fact that you have some trading experience , it is much more difficult for you to compliment what you are used to and what has been presented. Of course you will be speaking from your perspective to learn, be prepared to take alot of heat, in your remolding.

regards
  • #4,258
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:17am Jul 29, 2008 10:17am
Quoting DutchAngel
Romance of the 3 Kingdoms(Ro3K )

Generally analysis of the forex markets is confined to broad analysis of the relationship between,
1. The Allied stronghold currencies, eg the cable , EUR(lately), AUS, etc
2. The USD
3. The inferiors and exotics. eg DMK (retired), YEN, CHF, etc

Therefore the romance of the 3 kingdoms.


On the hourly you are seeing relationship abnormality. Notice how the USD is strengthening against the EUR and GBP while weakening against the yen at the same instances. So really there is much crosses tear. But its basically a tussle of the regional zones.

There’s however an invisible purpose to all this. Ponder this.
Which nation in the world is now carrying the most USD reserves and growing at hyper growth?
What exchange rate system are they on?
Do you understand managed pegging?
What sort of pressures can be imposed to them by USD devaluation?
Where is the most accessible front line markets for direct impact?
Bingo, equities!! and who to use as proxy front?


quoted from fti
Okay, thanks for the reference to fti's quote. I understand it.
  • #4,259
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:17am Jul 29, 2008 10:17am
Quoting rapaduski1
Thanks for your thoughts. I am still new to the thread and need to re-read part of it, but could you explain "3ko sync"? I am still working on folding into my trading strategy -- build over the last 4 years -- the information from this thread.

I am now flat on G/D and going to sit on sidelines for a while. I've been a pig all morning, but got a feeling that I was headed for the slaughter house.
OK, I may add something besides Lusan.

When USD appreatiate, all the major pairs against USD should reflect, right? And if it happens, E/U goes up, G/U goes up, and U/J goes down, right? But they may not move with same pace. One pair may lead, the other may lag. Today, U/J make a lead, and then G/U, the last one is E/U catching up.

If they are not confirming each other, maybe something is wrong.

If you traded stocks, you will see, if GM price increases, all the similiar stocks like Ford and Chrysler shall also increase.

Hope I helped you.
  • #4,260
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:19am Jul 29, 2008 10:19am
Quoting rapaduski1
If we have time, I'd appreciate some additional comments on why traders did what they did this morning. It's interesting that some were trading up while others down. This is a great thread, thanks to everyones participation and especially fti's leadership.
radputski1,

i had my eye on the larger charts, euro had made a 2 wave correction ending last week above 5610/11 level. Since then we've been north and in the back of my mind thinking there possibly could be a 3rd push for the dollar, however i was thinking it would come from a higher level, so either continued long euro momentum or higher point retracement both cases long euro for the moment.

I was looking to long off the present range,support i though would come 5700/690 flag level down to 5665/70 area.

Price has now broken the 5610/11 level mentioned last week. There's alot of questions now............. I've looking for a quick bounce back into the 5630/45 area to get out, if not it may be a long day if price hovers all day in this area or lower.

I missed this one.
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