One piece at a time

One piece at a time, is a reference to a Johnny Cash song, that is my method.

Do I know the expectancy, no I will find out. Do I know the risk/reward ratio, no. All those things will be calculated later. I haven’t figured how to quantify one of the variables yet. I find systems that claim as much always leave out the most important variable in the calculations, the mind of the individual practicing the approach. If you can quantify that and disseminate it to others please share. The variable “me” is so complex, I don’t know how to put it into the equation yet. Currently I do know that the risk is $2000.00. I know you are thinking I’m brilliant. I thank you in advance for your kind thoughts.

One Piece at a Time, keep your thoughts clean. One Piece at a Time, in a nutshell is not an original system, thought or method. I’m stealing pieces from various areas of FF. I’m stealing the Pin Bar from James16, I also learned a good deal when I was a paying member of that group a while back. Can’t share that. I’m stealing Fibs. I’m stealing the DashBoard from Brijon’s thread. I’ve read and read and there could be influences from God only knows. Books and more books. I’ll bet I have been influenced by you. Yes that is right you. I’ve read so much on this site and tried more than I can remember. That said, part of my strategy is to stop reading new strategies, they take up too much time, and I can never resist. They are just so addictive. IF this works I will then start scavenging for tidbits of new information that I can add to my Frankenstein strategy. I will do the same if it doesn’t work, once again brilliant. See I have a plan.

My dreams are the same as yours if you are reading this, I may have stolen them, that “part and particle” thing. But if that is the case I’m really you and you are me just temporarily separated so that the cosmic consciousness with billions of split personalities can manifest itself in various forms searching for its own identity. Everything has meaning; we just will never know what that meaning is (alive). I’ve been reading that the voids of space are full of energy, so if you think I have too much space between my ears thank you.

Edges to be exploited, trends, positive swap, statistically relevant patterns, and the most important is insanity ha ha ha ha. If it takes a month to find a trade, so be it. I’m looking for quality not quantity. That is so easy to say, but so hard to live up to.

My rules will follow

Rules for One Piece at a Time

1. I have to make sure that my methods cannot be put into an EA. If my methods can I know I’m on the path to failure. Or my discretion/mind has been taken over by an insidious alien who has trapped my consciousness in a machine. Why take the HU element out of all of this? The market depends upon divergent personalities to work. Robots can’t enjoy a good cup of coffee or tea, but I do. A world that would only use robots to trade the markets would be a world with no markets. Besides, what use would a bunch of wealthy robots have for us? Is that where we are heading? EA’s are fun to play with though. If you like playing like I do then program some EA’s. The good thing about programming EA’s is that you should be learning what the EA is being programmed to take advantage of. Yes all that historically significant data. Very educational.

1. Once I start trading this method, no more new influences are to distract me when I visit the factory. I’m not allowed to cloud my thoughts with anymore “new” ideas. I am permitted to sneak around areas that do not discuss strategies. I’m also permitted to post sarcastic but funny (to me) comments in other people’s threads. I have really been too serious and must change that.

2. Can trade in only one direction, with the trend. Long and medium, no short term.

3. Majority of trades should be in the direction of positive swap. Obviously because the major trend “usually” follows this direction. I find it funny that folks ask about the major “long term” trends. If you can make money on the swap you can bet that is the direction of the “long term” trend. Not always I'm sure but it is a good start. But rates change, as you should if you are unhappy.

4. If the dashboard indicates a signal, look at fibs, s/r and try to get in at the lowest of lowly lows if going long or the highest of atmospheric highs if going short. The reversal back in line with trend is the bread and butter. I love PBJ too. The DB signal is generated because a lot of people put in a lot of work to give users a heads up that you should be looking for a potential entry. Note that signal is not the entry. My crazy idea (stolen) is to be discretionary with the entry, but not the exit. Obviously that is where the mind of the individual trader comes in. If you absolutely know how to figure where the lowest lows and highest highs are before they occur, then you are omnipotent and must ask yourself why you are trading. You need to visit an omnipotent shrink for help. Just think of all the fun you could have doing something else. It would be boring to always be right because you are omnipotent. Not to mention that would be an unfulfilling edge and just plain thievery. If you know anyone who is omnipotent make sure to give them advice and ask them not to trade, it’s not fair.

5. I said no mechanical entries, there is one, I did not intend to lie, it just happens sometimes. IF the DashBoard is screaming at you to look for a trade and a one hour pin is confirmed, enter you fool what are you waiting for? Really that should be my only entry, but then I might never lose any money and then I might start thinking that I’m omnipotent, and that could only lead to very bad, yes a very bad end. Daily and 4H pins are even better, yes much better. I’ve seen one pin killer, I know to even think such a thing could be sacrilegious, like trading with stops as a Kantor, but NEWS can really knock the crap out of a good trade. But that is only conjecture I have no proof nor do I desire to defend such a radical view point. Defend what, this is my thread. If I were the dictator…

6. It is essential that I not be positive. It goes against my character for making money. Negative reinforcement works for me. I’m going to look for the best statistically significant trade but make the leap in thinking that I might be wrong. Thus stops, yes stop, stop, stops. (1% for all, except, whatever it works out to be for the PIN, if you know pins you know what I mean, I’m not explaining, why… because I don’t have to) I woke up one day after a year of trying to apply the “Secret” and reading over and over how important it is to be positive all the time, and I tried to believe yes really believe, BUT I still had no spaceship, so I became a bitter quitter and gave up. Only drugs could induce me to be positive all the time and drugs give me constipation. I hate constipation, it is worse than anything I have ever experienced, I was hit by a tree once and the Doctor gave me drugs, the broken neck, ribs an skull were less painful than the drug induced constipation. I don’t know how you addicts do it; you are much stronger than I am. If you are wondering if I have heard of laxatives, yes, but it is a vicious cycle, you can’t function if you are always either constipated or going to the bathroom at unpredictable times. This is all very important trading information; I hope you are taking notes. Learn from me, I’m giving.

7. Take profit, (TP). That really is the hardest part. I lied earlier.. again. You know the other TP (toilet Paper) I like it soft, I’m going to take profits in a similar way. If it doesn’t work I will convert to the “hard” scratchy brand. I hate those 1:3 etc. etc. It’s going to get there, no no its turning, wait it’s going to get there, no wait it is turning. So right now I will decide to TP … gee this is hard, hum, ok if it is with a trend why not try to use all those wiz bang S/R’s and FIBs to pick a reversal point and live with it? That is not only a rhetorical question but my literal TP. Don’t squeeze my TP. Mr. Whipple was kind of creepy; I say that with the utmost respect though. I miss that kind of advertising, if I were omnipotent I would bring it back. But seriously, always a minimum of 1:2. Am I saying that right or should I say a minimum target of double the risk? , Real target unknown, as my ramblings suggested there is no reason to get out until I convince myself of a short term reversal. That means I must get myself to not get out until a fib or S/R is tested and holds for a reverse. I just can’t get trend following out of my thoughts. By dream is to actually have the discipline to ride a trend to the top. Are dreams real?

8. Based upon the literature on the nature of success, if I lose the $2000.00 in less than a year then I will know I’m one step closer to being successful. To win is to win and to lose is to win. That whole 1000 light bulb thing I see repeated endlessly. Gee, maybe I am omnipotent because I predict there are only two outcomes.

9. Last and the most important rule is to give up on my goal of becoming a third world dictator. I know you are thinking this quitter mentality is not good for me. I thank you for your concern.

That’s it, easy to follow and fully explained rules. I will start posting after I find a way to steal …. I mean get the $2000.00.

I read over my post, which was posted in anger at myself when I made a foolish trading mistake. Which I have already forgotten about and moved forward, so don't ask me what my mistake was, its forgotten.

I'm no expert. I watched charts and traded in a live account during the overlap of the European and US Markets today. Just like last week I keep seeing contradictions. I'm no expert in the sense that nothing really came together. I mean the data incoming such as gold, oil, US stock market, what traded overnight and what appeared to be obvious patterns did not do as I expected. There was a beautiful moment today when everything was perfect but what happened in the end was a contradiction Which means its time for a break, NFP data comes out on Wed and Fri. I need a break.

I think the world as a whole is a little confused right now and the big players are getting ready to make some changes based upon the larger fundamentals, but they don't even know what they are going to do yet. I actually had a bizarre thought that all the central banks coordinated and kept things in balance today until they decide what is best for the world, is that possible? Something is up or I'm just weird. It is probably a time for someone at my experience level to get out and just wait until things make sense again. I don't have the experience to trade this week or possibly next. Trying to convince myself I should stay out.

I will probably be out of the market before then. It will be win/win either at SL or TP. I am long the EUR/USD with a TP set at 1.5785 and SL at 1.5715.

I am in several other trades at low costs but cummulatively they could add up to a just larger than small loss. I would close them now but to be blunt, I see no reason they shouldn't move into profit before wed. They are tuition trades so to speak, I played with an idea in demo but did not learn anything, I am learning now that they are live. The longer a trade stays net negative the more pain I feel. They were experimental carry trades in my live account that I have my serious doubts I will "carry" much longer. Love to see that interest piling up, but currently all getting near SL and the carry interest isn't justifying the risk and wait. If they had been regular sized trades I would be freaking out. Or I should say that even though the interest is reducing the risk, I don't feel the reduction justifies increasing my SL, cats out of the bag of what i was testing to see if mentally it made a difference. Not to me it doesn't, still freaking with a larger SL, I could not do the no SL thing, not built that way. I do not feel I entered at the wrong time they were good trades. The word "hope" has no place in trading, so I've read, so lets just say I am sticking to my original SL and TP. Those life lessons, looking forward to how they turn out.

I really believe scalping is where it is at for my mental makeup but not ready to take that plunge yet. That plunge. Yes I said plunge. Shouldn't scalping be called plunging?

i just want to seek the advice of experts about this trade i will enter from 107.60 on usd jpy and the target will be 107.80 . so what the experts think about this ?

When you find that expert let em know I could use some advice too. If your SL feels right and you are playing by your own rules and not taking advice from anyone but yourself, then only you know if it is a good trade.

I started this thread to remind myself it is ok to borrow things that help me make entry decisions or even lighten the research and calcs, but stop losses and TP's are for me to figure out. Easier to live with those decisions because I made them. I followed the thinking of someone else regarding SL's and it ended up causing pain, much too much pain.

I probably should not post my TP and SL's. Just bored, the more I think about it, the more irrelevant it seems to post such stuff. So why do we do it?

aha get it man . then u can ask me for advice . iam depending in my strategy on macd and stochastic and rsi . good luck

I just asked myself why after all these years I started posting this sarcastic nonsense. My answer I’m bored a bit confused, and since I have given up my goal of becoming a third world dictator, I needed a new goal. That goal is to post posts. To get my numbers up. The goal of every businessperson is to get their numbers up, why shouldn’t I have similar goals?

Originally I signed up and obtained a screen persona for the sole purpose of seeing what was in the Member's Lounge. Then I really liked what I saw with the James16 thread and hung out there for awhile. Lurking ever lurking. I really do like bars better than candles, I would have never switched if not for that thread. Now I'm posting, kind of silly isn't it. I'm going to try one of those icon thingy's.

Thanks, I appreciate it. Good luck also.

I was going to post a chart. But then I realized that my chart looks just like everyone elses when they first open them up. So if you were wondering about my EUR/USD trade and why I picked it, the answer is in my rules and the chart is just a look at the EUR/USD 1 Hour and EUR/USD Daily, nothing else. I do usually change the colors of the lower closers to red, and I hate the grid so I take it off. Black, green, and red. Green and Red like Christmas on a night time sky.

When I found Brijon's thread and saw the Dashboard I thought it was a great tool. I may not use it for the purpose it was designed for but it does give a world of information It has made me a bit lazy since I no longer start by looking at each individual chart first but look at the Dashboard first. Whether the market continues to trend in its current direction or changes it will be useful, one look at that chart and you have an idea where any given price is in relation to the others. The ranges are also at your fingertips, all in one neat package. What if, you get familiar with looking at that dashboard on a regular basis and see the patterns it was designed to follow, and then all of a sudden those patterns seem to be abrutly intterupted in terms of timing. If that ever happens I will be sure to take notice and see if I can figure out what is going on. It is my hope I can learn from those experiences.

When it looks like a trade is setting up, I then add some Fibs, on rare occaisions pivots, sometimes I draw some lines on the chart showing support and resistance, but it is so easy to spot these areas I usually don't bother. Some people can look at a cluttered chart and it talks to them. I look at a cluttered chart and I get very confused it bables at me.

At first I had a real hard time believing in Fibs and Pivots seemed like a lot of nonsense. BUT if an entire world is reading from the same books and websites then having read about expectations in some of the literature I realized it did not matter what I believed. As has been said on FF so many times, prices react at those areas because so many people use them. I would love to ignore them based upon my principals but they just seem to magically work. In truth pivots are a last resort for me since S/R is so clear, but there are times when I just see fit to use them, those lower lows and higher highs when going where no chart has gone before.

Well well, today when my longs hit SL all of them did. I went short. Made up the losses in a hurry, only playing the EUR/USD. Broke the rules and made up my losses. When will I learn?

I just read over my rules, I may not have broken them if I can in anyway consider the current downward movement of the EUR/USD a medium trend. Its a real stretch, but then this is my thread.

Earlier I was commenting about things not making sense, it is because in the large scheme of things there have been some short term fundamental changes. Flexiblity is what stop losses are all about.

New rule, when you are not long you are short. When you are not short you are long. If you don't know what you are don't trade. Those are biases, I'm not investing I'm speculating which means I have to move with the least resistence, which means some of my rules need to be more flexible. All rules except SL, SL's must be determined with analysis and fixed.

That was a great trade.

Ok today I learned as I had in the past that fixed profits are important, especially to take them. Still way ahead this week in trading up 10% but it could have been a little better.

This is what happened I figured my TP which was an easy target to hit based upon everything lining up beautifully, then the first time the number was hit since I didn't put it in the computer to auto take it, it didn't. I had my finger ready to press the button but I thought " a little more, a little more", I can be just too greedy. Then as happens when you don't do as you should your judgement momentarily gets a little cloudy. I took close to 33% of the profit off the table because of that. An easy profit. But still up 10% for the week. Lets see if I can keep it. Hell, I'm going to increase it.

I guess it is time I learn to post a chart in one of these threads without blowing it up.

Interesting daily chart.

If So, It seems you have had a couple good months in a row....41+% last month and over 20% this month already kudos.