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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #861
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:07pm Feb 9, 2007 4:07pm
As confirmation with your system I think they can be a powerful tool... for example:

Instead of assuming it will follow the last bunch of 'bounces' and bounce again, stick to your candlesticks. It will be when it actually penetrates the trendline or resistance and closes on the other side that might change your thinking, or add weight to your existing analysis.

Again, just my .02pips worth!

Take care,

Derek

Quoting steviet
We seem to have a backside theme going tonight don't we

Yup, I was counting on that trendline - typical that the first time I trade off it, it decides not to bounce . I had in mind the last time it headed towards this line that it bounced & I'd gone short.

Actually I didn't use trendlines at all in backtesting which is why I was a little annoyed at myself for trying to be too clever. I know they form a basis for many people's trading & trendlines do have merit - it's just they shouldn't form part of my system in live testing.

Have a great weekend too my friend & keep those comments coming.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #862
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:07pm Feb 9, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting Daemien
Hi Steve,

Just wanted to put my own .02pips in here..

You have shown you have what it takes to do it! You are planning your trades, and then trading your plan!! Keep it up!! I stand by one of my last posts.. you will survive!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1qCd9HRuS0



Take care,

D.
Hey D,

I will survive lol - that song takes me back - I only know all the words when I've had too much to drink & then, even worse, I start to think I'm God's gift to dancing

Have a great weekend bro

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #863
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:12pm Feb 9, 2007 4:12pm
Quoting hilmy83
I can see why you went long when the GBPUSD closed at the trendline. You 'assume' it will bounce. I always did that when i started price action trading and would find myself proven wrong most of the time . But i found that it's better to let price confirm my assumption with a bullish candle off a given trendline before I decide to enter.
Absolutely right - so why did I do it last night? As I say, I was trying to be a little clever & predicting a reversal that wasn't there and there was no confirmation for.

We all know what happens when you do that & I'm glad in a way that the market taught me a lesson. If it had bounced, I would have thought 'Oh, well done steve, you are a clever man'

Have a great weekend

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #864
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:16pm Feb 9, 2007 4:16pm
Quoting Daemien
As confirmation with your system I think they can be a powerful tool... for example:

Instead of assuming it will follow the last bunch of 'bounces' and bounce again, stick to your candlesticks. It will be when it actually penetrates the trendline or resistance and closes on the other side that might change your thinking, or add weight to your existing analysis.

Again, just my .02pips worth!

Take care,

Derek
OKOKOKOK, don't go on - you are right of course - breach of trendline will always happen at some point & I gambled on it bouncing, which was never part of my system. If I'd gone short and it bounced, I wouldn't have minded half as much taking the loss, as I should be taking my trades that way.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #865
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:35pm Feb 9, 2007 4:35pm
Hi,

Well, first an update on my two remaining trades still open....

USDJPY long from 120.69 (s/l 120.89 guarantees plus 20 pips )
EURUSD long from 1.2984 (s/l 1.2973 guarantees minus 11 pips)

UJ is currently up just over 100 pips so would be nice to bag a few more come Monday evening. Let's see if we can grab some more profit then.

Big moves in GU & UCAD today means I will go with the candles on Sunday. USDCHF still trying to push up and with my system I should take a long with a minimal pip risk. Should've done that last night too and I would have saved a 65 pip loss and only have a s/l of guaranteed minus 10 pips now. That trade was all to do with the GU plan too so that is one best forgotten too (but learnt from).

Most of what I was going to say has been posted already in response to other posts but just to summarise....

Guessing reversals is a big NO NO without any form of confirmation candle.

Stick with what this system is - candlesticks, price action and nothing else even set-ups that seem to have merit. I didn't backtest trend lines so I shouldn't be forward testing them live.

Being comfortable with any string of losses - as Isotonic said, I'm bound to get some zero or negative months - I just need to deal with it.

Look at the big picture - 3 steps forward (Nov, Dec, Jan), 1 step back (Feb).

We are not even halfway through Feb yet - my goal this month is to get closer to break even by the end of this month for Feb. No pressure, just take the trades - if it ranges, it ranges & I'll wait for my time. If I had not slightly deviated from my plan yesterday, I would've been much closer to that goal but what's gone is gone - learn by your mistakes.

OK, cover your eyes Iso :

Pip Count: Nov +476, Dec + 856, Jan +636, Feb -687
Cumulative: +1281
% A/C Bal Increase: Nov +7.08, Dec +12.00, Jan +10.54, Feb -10.80

Have a great weekend one & all and I'll be back Sunday

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #866
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:41pm Feb 9, 2007 4:41pm
pain is love or tough love

i will bet 50 pips that u will be up by the end of this month

hang in there
  • #867
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:46pm Feb 9, 2007 4:46pm
Quoting obeewon
pain is love or tough love

i will bet 50 pips that u will be up by the end of this month

hang in there
It would be nice - it's quite a lot of pips to catch up but then again, we are not even halfway through February yet - lots can and will happen by the 28th that's for sure

I'm hanging, I'm hanging

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #868
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:55pm Feb 9, 2007 4:55pm
lol.. i'm with ya!!! Ever been caught doing the 'Frying Bacon' dance on the dance floor? lmao.. you think it's cool at the time hehehe

Derek


Quoting steviet
Hey D,

I will survive lol - that song takes me back - I only know all the words when I've had too much to drink & then, even worse, I start to think I'm God's gift to dancing

Have a great weekend bro

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #869
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:58pm Feb 9, 2007 4:58pm
Quoting Daemien
lol.. i'm with ya!!! Ever been caught doing the 'Frying Bacon' dance on the dance floor? lmao.. you think it's cool at the time hehehe

Derek
I tend to just hang onto the wife for dear life when we have to dance. I'm told we look good together - it's when she lets go the trouble really starts
  • #870
  • Feb 9, 2007 5:00pm Feb 9, 2007 5:00pm
I think FF should have a chatroom lol - or we just continue to use your thread



Quoting steviet
I tend to just hang onto the wife for dear life when we have to dance. I'm told we look good together - it's when she lets go the trouble really starts
  • #871
  • Feb 9, 2007 7:43pm Feb 9, 2007 7:43pm
Could it be this time of year? Just curious if you documented your backtest well enough to see how the early part of 2005 was. I know you are using the system all the time, but it is interesting to look at the candles from jan-march of 2005, 2006 and now 2007 and see how they are just crazy up and down with no real trend.

Anyway, just something to look at for after your year of forward testing.

Just so you know, I haven't done well this month either.
  • #872
  • Feb 10, 2007 6:49am Feb 10, 2007 6:49am
Quoting llambert3
Could it be this time of year? Just curious if you documented your backtest well enough to see how the early part of 2005 was. I know you are using the system all the time, but it is interesting to look at the candles from jan-march of 2005, 2006 and now 2007 and see how they are just crazy up and down with no real trend.

Anyway, just something to look at for after your year of forward testing.

Just so you know, I haven't done well this month either.
Hi llambert,

Yes, I noticed that too which is why I'm not at all concerned. It seems the market needs to shake off it's New Year blues before deciding where it's going. Once we were into mid Feb, although not trending, the markets had a big enough range to still profit from.

The trouble with the past few weeks has been that the ranges have often been too tight to profit from using this method. Sorry you've had a poor month so far but if MM is right, you will be here to fight another day when the market is a little more condusive to this method.

Have a great weekend

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #873
  • Feb 11, 2007 4:10pm Feb 11, 2007 4:10pm
OK, 3 new trades on.....

USDCAD short from 1.1732 (s/l 1.1861 guarantees minus 129 pips)
USDCHF long from 1.2490 (s/l 1.2447 guarantees minus 43 pips)
GBPUSD short from 1.9479 (s/l 1.9611 guarantees minus 132 pips)

2 trades remain open from Friday....

USDJPY long from 120.69 (s/l 120.89 guarantees plus 20 pips)
EURUSD long from 1.2984 (s/l 1.2973 guarantees minus 11 pips)

UJ currently up 113 pips so should lock in some more profit on Monday's close. EU will probably get stopped out at this level.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #874
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:18pm Feb 11, 2007 6:18pm
Hey Steve,

Just wondering why you decided to go long on USDCHF? I see a strong uptrend, yet a shooting star on Friday's candle. This shooting star also completes what I see to be a three buddha top at a resistance line from jun/jul 06. Maybe because of the 3 river bottom that has just completed more recently?

Cheers,
Dean.
To be one with the market, you must first be one with yourself.
  • #875
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:27pm Feb 11, 2007 8:27pm
Quoting steviet
Sounds like you had a great day then

I'll catch you - you know I will hehe

Kind Regards
Steve
Just wanted know what system you use for trading if you didn't mind sharing?
  • #876
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:42pm Feb 11, 2007 8:42pm
Quoting Pandy
Just wanted know what system you use for trading if you didn't mind sharing?
Your first post and you ask him what his strategy is... Classic.
Mr. Trend
  • #877
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:44pm Feb 11, 2007 8:44pm
Quoting Pandy
Just wanted know what system you use for trading if you didn't mind sharing?
How about reading the thread first?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #878
  • Feb 12, 2007 3:53am Feb 12, 2007 3:53am
Quoting steviet

USDCHF long from 1.2490 (s/l 1.2447 guarantees minus 43 pips)
2 trades remain open from Friday....

EURUSD long from 1.2984 (s/l 1.2973 guarantees minus 11 pips)
EU will probably get stopped out at this level.
Hey Steve
Without wanting to be intrusive, but if you open a USDCHF long because you feel it will rise (and it did, so far) and you had EURUSD in a positive position...why did you let it close for -11 instead of just closing it for + ?
Considering the two are > 90% correlated there's only side that can win, right? Or did you want to make a calculated hedge? Just curious in this case whether it was a system based decision i.e. never close unless stopped out or whether you're "allowed" to close if you believe the direction has changed.

Best regards,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #879
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:12am Feb 12, 2007 4:12am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hey Steve
Without wanting to be intrusive, but if you open a USDCHF long because you feel it will rise (and it did, so far) and you had EURUSD in a positive position...why did you let it close for -11 instead of just closing it for + ?
Considering the two are > 90% correlated there's only side that can win, right? Or did you want to make a calculated hedge? Just curious in this case whether it was a system based decision i.e. never close unless stopped out or whether you're "allowed" to close if you believe the direction has changed.

Best regards,

SeekingLight
Hi,

My EU has been open for a number of days & therefore I stick to my rules as an open trade. I'm well aware they are correlated - should actually have opened UCHF long on the previous daily bar and lost some pips as a result.

I never close any trade early, whether in profit or not as that would be cheating the system. I'm quite used to being over 50 pips in profit and taking a loss, conversely have also had occasions where my s/l has been missed by a few pips on consecutive days and the trade has gone on to make 2-300 pips.

I know it may seem a little odd but that's just me haha. BTW, as at time of writing EU & UCHF are still open.

Edit 10.17 gmt - EU closed for minus 11 pips.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #880
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:14am Feb 12, 2007 4:14am
thanks for the tips

you said short on GBP/USD AT 1.9479 and i tried out today picked up 24 pips ...wow

amazing work...

please keep me posted with news trades..

thanks a lot..

god bless you

Quoting steviet
Hi,

This has been my best week so far in forex

I went long g/u, e/u & usdcad and short on u/j & usdchf when trading opened Sunday evening as my system indicated.

As of now I got stopped out at a 43 pip profit on usdcad & am up a total of 548 pips on my open trades with stop losses protecting some of that as each trade moves on

I've backtested my own daily system manually bar by bar for over a year on these 5 pairs and I know long term it is profitable. I use a 2% margin on each pair totalling 10% at any one time. The system calls on me to be very disciplined as I take any losses but it's working as expected so far

I'm only trading a micro account as I don't have enough money to start any other way but the funds are compounding nicely.

Kind Regards
Steve
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