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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,081
  • Jul 28, 2008 9:46am Jul 28, 2008 9:46am
Quoting luSan
I am square...But I guess I do not have eat the cakes...it is amazing to see how S/R behave as magnetic forces...I guess we are into a narrow range from 5720-5735...until a new event...
Hi Lusan,
you keep thinking and stop feeling her, you will lose your way !
And I am not joking.

regards

If you wanna think , think this.
How can athe market run, with an obstcle right in front of it?

regards
Idon't know if I am right, but you seem to like to trade breakouts, that can kill you, beware. Just for your info, that is the no 1 killer in markets.She love to kill rigid and chasers.
  • #4,082
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:11am Jul 28, 2008 10:11am
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan,
you keep thinking and stop feeling her, you will lose your way !
And I am not joking.
>>>I am a thinking man. Unavoidable...INTJ personality
regards

If you wanna think , think this.
How can athe market run, with an obstcle right in front of it?
>>>that is a good question to think next time I am in the park!
Still this saturday...I thought that it depends where is PA in reference to S/R, time of the day, number of S/R of multiple time frame around...just thoughts..
still..it does not look like stocks at all...

regards
Idon't know if I am right, but you seem to like to trade breakouts, that can kill you, beware. Just for your info, that is the no 1 killer in markets.She love to kill rigid and chasers.
>>>even though I like them...I do not trade them as often as I would like to...For example today, though it looks like a breakout, for me it was not...it was a bounced from 5765...I caught it late, because I was playing around with G -After looking at E/U for so many months, I do not like that G thing...so I closed and came back to E/U...right in time to catch it..
Breakout are nice...but they fail because of the bounces, news and other unknowns...they are dangerous I know...been destroyed several times...going against the breakout is nice too..

Still bear with me...I am not a trader YET but a student of the art.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,083
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:17am Jul 28, 2008 10:17am
Quoting luSan
Breakout are nice...but they fail because of the bounces, news and other unknowns...they are dangerous I know...been destroyed several times...going against the breakout is nice too..
.......
Regards,

IMHO, I think that the Breakouts fails
because a loooooot of people are looking at the same thing....

Rgs,

Textor
  • #4,084
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:20am Jul 28, 2008 10:20am
Quoting luSan
Breakout are nice...but they fail because of the bounces, news and other unknowns...they are dangerous I know...been destroyed several times...going against the breakout is nice too..

Still bear with me...I am not a trader YET but a student of the art.

Regards,
Hi Lusan,
I guess I was a little harsh,
But if you just came on thread onl;y now then , you have an excuse,
after so many months, I don't know what to say.
you seem to be unable to get the old dog out of you.

Look, I had said many times, S/R means nothing, only the way she dances it.
He dance sequense can lead you either thru it or on it, IT MEANS NOTHING.
Patterns tells you what type of MM is most likely. Instead you think about pattern when you should be reviewing strategy and position, How to protect your book if you are wrong , how to prepare for attack, what the arkets mode is, These are the important things to be thinking of. You already got PA done yet you keep at whats's being shown, instead of preparing your book.
I 'm sorry , I don't know how to explain it clearer than this.

regards
  • #4,085
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:21am Jul 28, 2008 10:21am
Quoting textor
IMHO, I think that the Breakouts fails
because a loooooot of people are looking at the same thing....

Rgs,

Textor
Yes, but breakout on the news seem to work

hey...just notice...bears are back...in the high time frame this breakout failed...but we collected. rigjht?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,086
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:24am Jul 28, 2008 10:24am
Quoting luSan
Yes, but breakout on the news seem to work

hey...just notice...in the high time frame this breakout failed...but we collected...it
Hi,
I keep telling you and you don't wanna listen. OK you do that for I year, then you come back and tell me.

enough
regrads

Ok, you get in position now, , then lets see you after the fomc talk,
either you are deep in the money or you will spend the next 3 days trying to save your book.
  • #4,087
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:26am Jul 28, 2008 10:26am
my , was a hard day for me ... yen kept goin on range bound , but all out with good profit finally ...
wondering what prompts yen to be so resistant ...
anyway good nite to all , morning to some , n good trading
cya
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #4,088
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:27am Jul 28, 2008 10:27am
I like my USDJPY short side dances ...
May be from the profits I can buy me a little piece of chessecake ,too.

Squared now and waiting....
  • #4,089
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:32am Jul 28, 2008 10:32am
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan,
I guess I was a little harsh,
But if you just came on thread onl;y now then , you have an excuse,
after so many months, I don't know what to say.
you seem to be unable to get the old dog out of you.

Look, I had said many times, S/R means nothing, only the way she dances it.
He dance sequense can lead you either thru it or on it, IT MEANS NOTHING.
Patterns tells you what type of MM is most likely. Instead you think about pattern when you should be reviewing strategy and position, How to protect your book if you are wrong , how to prepare for attack, what the arkets mode is, These are the important things to be thinking of. You already got PA done yet you keep at whats's being shown, instead of preparing your book.
I 'm sorry , I don't know how to explain it clearer than this.

regards
I got your point...If you are harsh I deserved it and I know you mean good...

still...
1) I do not look at patterns at all
2) seem so many S/R broken that they are just a point of reference. Not use for trading
3) I trade only PA
4) The book is everything
5) my mindset it is very different when I am trading...Trade my style...do not even analysize when I am in...get the pips...play my game...get out...even when PA keep keep going...I shut for a cut...not for the whole thing..
6) I am just thinking at this time...Have phone interview in 2 hours...need to prepare
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,090
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:34am Jul 28, 2008 10:34am
Quoting luSan
[...]
6) I am just thinking at this time...Have phone interview in 2 hours...need to prepare
Good luck for you luSan !!!!
  • #4,091
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:45am Jul 28, 2008 10:45am
Quoting fti
Hi,
I keep telling you and you don't wanna listen. OK you do that for I year, then you come back and tell me.

enough
regrads

Ok, you get in position now, , then lets see you after the fomc talk,
either you are deep in the money or you will spend the next 3 days trying to save your book.
Hi,fti:

I also use break-outs as the trigger(not horizantal only, sometimes "trendline"). But I found out, if I am right, it is the best timing for short-term trading/scalpling. If I am wrong, the positions could be dead in deep water due to false breakout traps. Some people like it maybe because the "success rate" is high and you don't need to wait long time to take the profit.

Now the question, so what is the best time or conditions to trigger?

David
  • #4,092
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:49am Jul 28, 2008 10:49am
Quoting maheswara
my , was a hard day for me ... yen kept goin on range bound , but all out with good profit finally ...
wondering what prompts yen to be so resistant ...
anyway good nite to all , morning to some , n good trading
cya
Better to watch yen for Dollar Bull or Dollar Bear money flows, (Three Kingdom)...then trade the Euro...Timing
  • #4,093
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:51am Jul 28, 2008 10:51am
Do we have any analysis on the 3 kingdoms ?
To my inexperienced eyes everythings lined up to move.
  • #4,094
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:56am Jul 28, 2008 10:56am
Quoting lilpip
Do we have any analysis on the 3 kingdoms ?
To my inexperienced eyes everythings lined up to move.
Hi lilpip
later,sorry.
Battlestations ladies and gents.

remember no chasing, if you chase , review your book and keep it very short term.
Strategic positioning.

regards
  • #4,095
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:58am Jul 28, 2008 10:58am
Quoting lilpip
Do we have any analysis on the 3 kingdoms ?
To my inexperienced eyes everythings lined up to move.

Then you wait for them to actually start moving, together, that is real move
  • #4,096
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:01am Jul 28, 2008 11:01am
Quoting seeit
Then you wait for them to actually start moving, together, that is real move
NO . later, watch her and learn.
I am getting a little upset, and may affect my trading.
  • #4,097
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:05am Jul 28, 2008 11:05am
Quoting seeit
Then you wait for them to actually start moving, together, that is real move
Lets see how we do, so far so good.
  • #4,098
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:06am Jul 28, 2008 11:06am
Mishkin says:

- FOMC should extend economic projections to 5 years
- FOMC should change inflation consensus only when economy changes
- FOMC should agree on specific Mandate-consistent inflation rate
- Inflation of 2 PCT 'or perhaps a bit lower' facilitates economy
- Inflation'above rates consistent with price stability'
  • #4,099
  • Edited 11:33am Jul 28, 2008 11:12am | Edited 11:33am
oil is on rallys ,dow, vv soft.
talking bear $, don't move!
inflationcannot be lower than 2 for now,
this is bear $ talk, watch dow closely.
be careful , don't move, watch her behaviour.

mkt uncertain,in shock
evryone waiting for talk to end before decision,
Stops may be building up on both ends, I can't see orders, guessing only.
beware sweeps may become wild,
don't be in a hurry, allow swep to direct, may be both directions and volitile.
bear $ mode is on my mind, watch her, do not chase.
let the 1st wave go, DO NOT CHASE
  • #4,100
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:16am Jul 28, 2008 11:16am
Quoting fti
oil is on rallys so is dow, vv soft.
talking bear $, don't move!
10-4
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