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Trading Aussie Jacko Style

  • #261
  • Jul 25, 2008 11:25am Jul 25, 2008 11:25am
Quoting mchael
the data coming out is going to make it hard for it to rise and if it does it will be ever so small. People will be pulling their carry trades out from here on in.
Hi mchael,
I appreciate your input, the problem is non -specific comments like this are not helpful, what data do you mean, why are you so sure people will be pulling out carry trades...this kind of warning is not tradeable, please try to be more specific so that we can decide whether the risk you talk about is a risk we are willing to take heed of or ignore...Raz
Never say never.
  • #262
  • Jul 26, 2008 7:10am Jul 26, 2008 7:10am
Raz,

What's your take on AUDUSD now? Are you in? Is it going to drop more?
Expected the unexpected
  • #263
  • Jul 26, 2008 7:20am Jul 26, 2008 7:20am
Ok,
so Im posting a weekly chart with the same trendline as before, plus Ive added in fib confluence areas. As you can see, if we drop through this area, 0.9550, we have quite a drop to the next area with fib confluence...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie weekly with confluence.gif Size: 16 KB
Never say never.
  • #264
  • Jul 26, 2008 12:30pm Jul 26, 2008 12:30pm
Out of interest, what values are you using for stops and entries in terms of Jacko's method? I have been toying with using 40 where 50 is used and 80 where 100 is used. Any comments?
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #265
  • Jul 26, 2008 1:35pm Jul 26, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting shadowninja
Out of interest, what values are you using for stops and entries in terms of Jacko's method? I have been toying with using 40 where 50 is used and 80 where 100 is used. Any comments?
Its difficult to say...Ive been using 45 with aussie, and I would have been knocked out with up to 65 or so, then again I would have given back too much in other cases. I dont think the ts is ideal to be honest but again, as Jacko says it makes your exit mechanical with no emotional ties. On eur I think the 100 is necessary with the current volatility, there just isnt any way around that, unless you REALLY tightened things up and in that case you could easily miss any big moves. (or say used a tight stop to begin with and then just left your stop at breakeven after x pips hoping that the initial momentum would keep you in the trade, but in this case you would have to have an excellent entry)
Another alternative is to use something like the DIBS method once you have picked an entry area (using fib confluence and trendlines etc) and then only take trades in the direction of the trend. What I dont like about that is that lower timeframes make screenwatching necessary and because of my personal circumstances I just dont have time to sit around babysitting trades ...but the idea of using very small stops is appealing enough that I may start using that method after the summer when I have time to myself again.
Well, babbling here, but discussion is welcome, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #266
  • Jul 26, 2008 3:38pm Jul 26, 2008 3:38pm
Hm. That's been a problem for me in the past with Jacko's method. I ended up "picking bottoms" and losing that way. Of course, the AH is a useful technique for minimising losses but it is still irritating, esp if it falls just past your stop and rockets in the direction you expected... "right too soon" strikes again.

My personal preferred entry method has been let it climb, wait for a minor pullback, buy once it sets off in the direction again (via an order). It does mean I don't pick bottoms but also requires an appropriate (non-tight) stop. (Apologies for stating this as it isn't really a Jacko technique but thought I'd mention it. I do wonder if we should have a Jacko discussion thread to discuss variations on his method.)
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #267
  • Jul 28, 2008 1:18am Jul 28, 2008 1:18am
After the recent fall, I think .9500 would be a good and cheap place to buy. Strong support zone and weekly trendline should provide some up movement from here. Trailing stop would ensure we lock in profits even if it falls further later.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #268
  • Edited 2:39am Jul 28, 2008 2:23am | Edited 2:39am
so lets let it play itself out. TSL 45 (0.9515 now)I bought after a drop through and as it came back up...now we need some momentum! Take care, Raz

PS dont know if you noticed but the Aussie dropped to the 61.8% retracement of the .9327-.9849 move at .9526. If the support at .9526 holds, we may well move on up higher as this has been quite a deep retracement. If the support fails I will stand aside until we bottom out clearly
Never say never.
  • #269
  • Jul 28, 2008 3:14am Jul 28, 2008 3:14am
Downward triangle on H1 puts me off going long...
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #270
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:12am Jul 28, 2008 4:12am
Quoting shadowninja
Downward triangle on H1 puts me off going long...
Can you post a chart...although I dont really use 1hr charts to be honest
Never say never.
  • #271
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:14am Jul 28, 2008 4:14am
Quoting razldazl
so lets let it play itself out. TSL 45 (0.9515 now)I bought after a drop through and as it came back up...now we need some momentum! Take care, Raz

PS dont know if you noticed but the Aussie dropped to the 61.8% retracement of the .9327-.9849 move at .9526. If the support at .9526 holds, we may well move on up higher as this has been quite a deep retracement. If the support fails I will stand aside until we bottom out clearly
Agree, I entered long too early last week, at .96, and should have waited, because a new trend usually always starts at beginning of week. Anyway, I'm long again from .9530, and maybe we'll see above previous highs soon, (above .985) I'd TP out at .995 , but I'd also trail my S/L somewhat.
  • #272
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:20am Jul 28, 2008 4:20am
Quoting Clouds
Agree, I entered long too early last week, at .96, and should have waited, because a new trend usually always starts at beginning of week. Anyway, I'm long again from .9530, and maybe we'll see above previous highs soon, (above .985) I'd TP out at .995 , but I'd also trail my S/L somewhat.
Clouds,
I noticed that you use a very tight sl to start, what are you using as a trail once you are in profit? Do you trail and by how much? thanks, Raz
Never say never.
  • #273
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:23am Jul 28, 2008 4:23am
Quoting razldazl
Clouds,
I noticed that you use a very tight sl to start, what are you using as a trail once you are in profit? Do you trail and by how much? thanks, Raz
Hi Raz,
Sometimes I use tight sl, but it's because I prefer making entree twice, than being negative. When I trail S/L I'll set to BE first and then trail by 100 pips or less, depending on lows
  • #274
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:30am Jul 28, 2008 4:30am
Quoting Clouds
Hi Raz,
Sometimes I use tight sl, but it's because I prefer making entree twice, than being negative. When I trail S/L I'll set to BE first and then trail by 100 pips or less, depending on lows
So once Im at breakeven you wouldnt move it until it gets to +100 or trail below significant lows, ok got it...I hate giving back so many pips but its a drag to get bumped out when we are still on the rise too, same old problem. I have found though that once we have a significant (fast) move up its almost best to jump boat and wait for a retrace, since there will always be one...for now 45 has been keeping me out of trouble...
Never say never.
  • #275
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:43am Jul 28, 2008 4:43am
Quoting razldazl
So once Im at breakeven you wouldnt move it until it gets to +100 or trail below significant lows, ok got it...I hate giving back so many pips but its a drag to get bumped out when we are still on the rise too, same old problem. I have found though that once we have a significant (fast) move up its almost best to jump boat and wait for a retrace, since there will always be one...for now 45 has been keeping me out of trouble...
If we are right, that we are at the bottom, then it may take a while for the momentum to get going up, but shouldn't break these lows. If I'm real confident about my entree, I use 20 or 30, just depends. Since today may be the first bullish candle, there will be another, if not 3-4, and wouldn't want miss out on them. If we break previous highs, 100 pips above would be a good exit to wait for a retrace, or dare I say reverse. Also I like looking at other pairs too, because usually when usd is bearish or bullish it shows on other pairs.
  • #276
  • Jul 28, 2008 5:12am Jul 28, 2008 5:12am
Quoting Clouds
If we are right, that we are at the bottom, then it may take a while for the momentum to get going up, but shouldn't break these lows. If I'm real confident about my entree, I use 20 or 30, just depends. Since today may be the first bullish candle, there will be another, if not 3-4, and wouldn't want miss out on them. If we break previous highs, 100 pips above would be a good exit to wait for a retrace, or dare I say reverse. Also I like looking at other pairs too, because usually when usd is bearish or bullish it shows on other pairs.
Good thinking batman...I will leave my stop at breakeven if I get there, and see where it goes, on the last trade it wouldnt have made any difference, but this is the second time through this area so it may hold above..we will just have to wait and see, thanks for your input, Raz ps I guess we need to see a move up out of this tight range on gold and a clean break above 5750 on eur also really...
Never say never.
  • #277
  • Jul 28, 2008 7:19am Jul 28, 2008 7:19am
Quoting razldazl
Can you post a chart...although I dont really use 1hr charts to be honest

There was a descending trendline from Thursday. It got breached this morning but it appears to be whipsawing at the moment.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #278
  • Jul 28, 2008 10:05am Jul 28, 2008 10:05am
09550 buy, sl at -1, 0.9549 (high 0.9594- 45)
leaving a hard stop at 0.9549, so quite likely I will be knocked out...later all, Raz
Never say never.
  • #279
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:07am Jul 28, 2008 11:07am
I get the feeling it's starting to change directions (ie up) so you may be lucky.

Bear in mind that Jacko doesn't trail so tightly so it would be interesting to see if while you get stopped out if it doesn't go past the original stop level... I think this is the nature of AUD/USD. It is much slower and reluctant to move... much like a 50 year old dad with a beer gut who can't be bothered to take his son to the park to play football.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #280
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:19am Jul 28, 2008 11:19am
Quoting shadowninja
I get the feeling it's starting to change directions (ie up) so you may be lucky.

Bear in mind that Jacko doesn't trail so tightly so it would be interesting to see if while you get stopped out if it doesn't go past the original stop level... I think this is the nature of AUD/USD. It is much slower and reluctant to move... much like a 50 year old dad with a beer gut who can't be bothered to take his son to the park to play football.
Well keep in mind this is kind of an experimental thing, ie nothing is fixed. Jacko only trades eu full stop so anything we come up with here is completely untested...so far the 45 has worked out ok, but Im open. I think clouds idea of the leave stop at breakeven and move it up after 100 could be ok too, especially based on the possibility that this is the bottom ...but definitely its all new ground we are covering here. And dammit I dont care how I just want to make pips every month ...
Never say never.
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