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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #104,201
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:33pm Jul 27, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting Scrat
i think we're going down for a correction. but i might be wrong.
if it were a regular week, i would see this ranging up to upper 216 and then drop from there. but this week... it's probably gonna shoot up and down like crazy.
I have that kind of feeling too. this week is full of news for us. do you think we should skip this week since we probably going to range? i can see it now on the daily chart and weekly chart with my fibos.

EDIT:Someday this week, we're surely gonna have a good breakout.
  • #104,202
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:51pm Jul 27, 2008 9:51pm
we are very close to the weekly 50ema currently at 215.20. breaking that MA isn't a very easy thing for price. lots of confluence there too; descending TL, a fibo fan level, and broken weekly neckline. i see other minor resistances.

if this week closes above that level then 219 and above are inevitable. however, since i didn't see the rejection i was hoping for on the weekly level, i would have one guess (Feeling) for this week which i hope we don't get; a 200 pip range between 215 and 213 since 213 isn't that easy of a level either. the breakout in either direction should be massive, and we should be a bit ready for it either way. i would suggest that u guys stay away from directional bias.

going for a nap now, see ya guys at frankfort.
  • #104,203
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:54pm Jul 27, 2008 9:54pm
Quoting lilmoe
we are very close to the weekly 50ema currently at 215.20. breaking that MA isn't a very easy thing for price. lots of confluence there too; descending TL, a fibo fan level, and broken weekly neckline. i see other minor resistances.

if this week closes above that level then 219 and above are inevitable. however, since i didn't see the rejection i was hoping for on the weekly level, i would have one guess (Feeling) for this week which i hope we don't get; a 200 pip range between 215 and 213 since 213 isn't that easy of a level either. the breakout in either direction should be massive, and we should be a bit ready for it either way. i would suggest that u guys stay away from directional bias.

going for a nap now, see ya guys at frankfort.

forgot to mention something. if we DO range for a fair period of time, i would also suggest that u guys be ready to trade against the first (usually fake) breakout. we've had 2 of those this month, chances should be high for a 3rd one. manipulation should be at its extremes right now since this week should decide where then next 1000+ pip movement will be.
  • #104,204
  • Jul 27, 2008 10:09pm Jul 27, 2008 10:09pm
Quoting lilmoe
forgot to mention something. if we DO range for a fair period of time, i would also suggest that u guys be ready to trade against the first (usually fake) breakout. we've had 2 of those this month, chances should be high for a 3rd one. manipulation should be at its extremes right now since this week should decide where then next 1000+ pip movement will be.
I'm seeing both 50ema and 200ema holding tight support and resistance on this one. we're surely going to see ranges this week but in the end, that waiting will be worthwhile....
  • #104,205
  • Jul 27, 2008 10:12pm Jul 27, 2008 10:12pm
I have a hunch that this big fall will be down. take a look at 5ema in weekly and see how far it is from price.
  • #104,206
  • Edited 10:52pm Jul 27, 2008 10:36pm | Edited 10:52pm
I see a run down to the 212.00 area with another bounce up from there. It seems to have hit a resistance point @ 214.85, so for today I am feeling Bearish. Watch out for the 213.80 ish for S/R, then from there on down to 212.00 or further down to 211.00. I doubt if it will go lower than that, over all on the big picture, using the weekly I remain Bullish with caution, I'm expecting there to be a significant drop similer to last year in September, or I'm hopping for the same thing to occure. My prediction is based on S/R candle formation and Fibo and I don't mind being wrong as long as I make the right trade. For now, Bearish at least 100 or so pips.

I'm also Bearish on the USD, and this is Non Farm Payroll week, so be coutious.

I hope everone had a great weekend, it's good to be here with you.

Jeff
  • #104,207
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:08pm Jul 27, 2008 11:08pm
Gettin ready to short in frankfurt
  • #104,208
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:08pm Jul 27, 2008 11:08pm
Quoting PipLucky
I see a run down to the 212.00 area with another bounce up from there. It seems to have hit a resistance point @ 214.85, so for today I am feeling Bearish. Watch out for the 213.80 ish for S/R, then from there on down to 212.00 or further down to 211.00. I doubt if it will go lower than that, over all on the big picture, using the weekly I remain Bullish with caution, I'm expecting there to be a significant drop similer to last year in September, or I'm hopping for the same thing to occure. My prediction is based on S/R candle formation and Fibo and I don't mind being wrong as long as I make the right trade. For now, Bearish at least 100 or so pips.

I'm also Bearish on the USD, and this is Non Farm Payroll week, so be coutious.

I hope everone had a great weekend, it's good to be here with you.

Jeff


im agreed ...me too here see this price is going down at least to 213.20 then from there bounce up 216.96(50% weekly fibo). im seen possible bullish butterfly play out on tf 1H chart ....
  • #104,209
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:12pm Jul 27, 2008 11:12pm
Quoting ephisi
Gettin ready to short in frankfurt
May I ask why?
  • #104,210
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:27pm Jul 27, 2008 11:27pm
base on my signals and price action, i may short b4 frankfurt.
Frankfurt is fund of shorting GJ
  • #104,211
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:28pm Jul 27, 2008 11:28pm
im going to short if price closed below tf 1H ...............and target at 50 ema tf 4H ...!!
  • #104,212
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:29pm Jul 27, 2008 11:29pm
Quoting ephisi
base on my signals and price action, i may short b4 frankfurt.
Frankfurt is fund of shorting GJ
I'm also thinking about that as well. I may have to wait until 1hr gives me the signal.
  • #104,213
  • Edited 11:43pm Jul 27, 2008 11:40pm | Edited 11:43pm
I'm thinking that it would be safe to short below 214.30, with a SP @ 214.85
Tp, not sure how far it will go, are we ever? but I'm thinking to be cautious so I'll go with half the normal lot size. that's my 2 cents, still waiting not in yet.
  • #104,214
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:47pm Jul 27, 2008 11:47pm
Wow, did anyone experience that 20 pip spike? Good thing I didn't have a stop loss on that one.

Did you see or it could be my broker?

UPDATE: It was going 20 pip up in two seconds and then came back down to normal. Boy, I don't think I should a stop loss at all when using this kind of platform - ATCbrokers.
  • #104,215
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:51pm Jul 27, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting Vfforexlee
Wow, did anyone experience that 20 pip spike? Good thing I didn't have a stop loss on that one.

Did you see or it could be my broker?

I'm with Mig, both demo and live there was a little spike
  • #104,216
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:54pm Jul 27, 2008 11:54pm
Quoting PipLucky
I'm with Mig, both demo and live there was a little spike
Thanks.

Boy, this trade is getting boring!!!
  • #104,217
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:55pm Jul 27, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting Vfforexlee
Wow, did anyone experience that 20 pip spike? Good thing I didn't have a stop loss on that one.

Did you see or it could be my broker?

UPDATE: It was going 20 pip up in two seconds and then came back down to normal. Boy, I don't think I should a stop loss at all when using this kind of platform - ATCbrokers.
I did, I am watching FXCM. what platform are you in

It also happened in GBP-USD
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #104,218
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:55pm Jul 27, 2008 11:55pm
Maybe 214.35 is a Support level, MMMMmmm I could be all wrong with this short thinking, it's happened before. thoughts???????
  • #104,219
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:57pm Jul 27, 2008 11:57pm
We're in tight ranging. There is really no strong signal but I'm still holding on to my shorts.

If you look at weekly chart and put up 50 ema and 200 ema, you will see something there.
  • #104,220
  • Jul 28, 2008 12:00am Jul 28, 2008 12:00am
Quoting Vfforexlee
Wow, did anyone experience that 20 pip spike? Good thing I didn't have a stop loss on that one.

Did you see or it could be my broker?

UPDATE: It was going 20 pip up in two seconds and then came back down to normal. Boy, I don't think I should a stop loss at all when using this kind of platform - ATCbrokers.
You're right, spike on geppy at 214.71 and GBP/USD at 1.9917
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