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  • #41
  • Edited 9:35am Feb 9, 2007 8:41am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting JamDown
I think the stop loss is the problem. When I went back to the original P post it looked as if the system was not intended to be used with a stoploss. I have notice that when trading one of the biggest reason for loosing is having a stop that was too narrow. We should retest with a wider stop...say 25 to 30 with a 40 pip TP.
I posted the same on the other thread...(post 181)

I wonder what would happen if we do not take loss until we got a reverse signal. For instance: yesterday night we got SL on CAN but we never got a reverse signal, so if we didn't set SL, now we would be making profit....On the other hand, if we get a reverse signal, then we take the loss and enter the market the other way...
Just a thought

Hope it'd be useful
  • #42
  • Feb 9, 2007 10:17am Feb 9, 2007 10:17am
mmm, the EA opened a buy on EURJPY at 1500GMT with no sign of a signal on the chart (M30)
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #43
  • Feb 9, 2007 10:19am Feb 9, 2007 10:19am
Hey thanks everyone for your input and advice! I think this system certainly has potential... but like others have said, because of the MA's these crosses usually are followed by large trends. So, for testing purposes...I saw how horrible the system was testing according to the stop loss and profit taking parameters being so small... if you change your SL-50 pips and TP-100 pips, total lots-2 the results are staggering for a one month test! Try it, $3696.70 Net Profit on GBP/USD 30 day test!

I do suggest multiple lots, taking profit and letting the remaining lots ride with a moved up SL to solidify gains... I've tested this for some time and have reaped the rewards.. I.E. I've been in the eur/jpy since the 6th, usd/jpy since the 7th, and eur/chf since the 7th... there is definitely potential if you scale out of your trades and implement a good money management system... I personally use a 'half kelly" type system.. I increase as I get profitable!

Happy Trading

p.s. I think a proper stop for this system is better if put on the opposite side of the 75 and 85 MA's rather than a preset number... but i think these numbers will help with testnig purposes!
  • #44
  • Feb 9, 2007 10:35am Feb 9, 2007 10:35am
Quoting toti1972
I posted the same on the other thread...(post 181)

I wonder what would happen if we do not take loss until we got a reverse signal. For instance: yesterday night we got SL on CAN but we never got a reverse signal, so if we didn't set SL, now we would be making profit....On the other hand, if we get a reverse signal, then we take the loss and enter the market the other way...
Just a thought

Hope it'd be useful
I just went back and saw that. Great minds pull from the same source of all knowledge...El Kaluwm.
BigDog
  • #45
  • Feb 9, 2007 12:14pm Feb 9, 2007 12:14pm
Quoting mwilkinw
Hey thanks everyone for your input and advice! I think this system certainly has potential... but like others have said, because of the MA's these crosses usually are followed by large trends. So, for testing purposes...I saw how horrible the system was testing according to the stop loss and profit taking parameters being so small... if you change your SL-50 pips and TP-100 pips, total lots-2 the results are staggering for a one month test! Try it, $3696.70 Net Profit on GBP/USD 30 day test!

I do suggest multiple lots, taking profit and letting the remaining lots ride with a moved up SL to solidify gains... I've tested this for some time and have reaped the rewards.. I.E. I've been in the eur/jpy since the 6th, usd/jpy since the 7th, and eur/chf since the 7th... there is definitely potential if you scale out of your trades and implement a good money management system... I personally use a 'half kelly" type system.. I increase as I get profitable!

Happy Trading

p.s. I think a proper stop for this system is better if put on the opposite side of the 75 and 85 MA's rather than a preset number... but i think these numbers will help with testnig purposes!

Excuse my ignorance, what is a "half kelly" system?
  • #46
  • Feb 9, 2007 12:27pm Feb 9, 2007 12:27pm
Have you tested for other months, too? I'm just wondering how this would do in choppier markets, like we had for the first half of 2005 or during the summer of most any year. If it's profitable in those periods without any serious drawdowns, it may have a lot potential.


Quoting mwilkinw
Hey thanks everyone for your input and advice! I think this system certainly has potential... but like others have said, because of the MA's these crosses usually are followed by large trends. So, for testing purposes...I saw how horrible the system was testing according to the stop loss and profit taking parameters being so small... if you change your SL-50 pips and TP-100 pips, total lots-2 the results are staggering for a one month test! Try it, $3696.70 Net Profit on GBP/USD 30 day test!

I do suggest multiple lots, taking profit and letting the remaining lots ride with a moved up SL to solidify gains... I've tested this for some time and have reaped the rewards.. I.E. I've been in the eur/jpy since the 6th, usd/jpy since the 7th, and eur/chf since the 7th... there is definitely potential if you scale out of your trades and implement a good money management system... I personally use a 'half kelly" type system.. I increase as I get profitable!

Happy Trading

p.s. I think a proper stop for this system is better if put on the opposite side of the 75 and 85 MA's rather than a preset number... but i think these numbers will help with testnig purposes!
  • #47
  • Feb 9, 2007 12:35pm Feb 9, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting NKE
Excuse my ignorance, what is a "half kelly" system?
Hey NKE! The 'half kelly" is a money management system. Essentially the kelly system is a bet sizing system. It was made popular by the MIT prof. Edward Thorp, the man who inveted hi-lo card counting for blackjack and broke Vegas. After cleaning up, he published his card counting strategy (resulting in the prosecution of card counters from that day on). He used the Kelly System for placing his bets.

He started a hedge fund and used the "helf kelly" system for placing trades... basically using the kelly but the initial position is half of a normal kelly bet. His success brought this system popularity in securities trading and variations of it have been used by traders and fund managers ever since!

I use a half kelly system on my initial trade position and add to my position as the account increases... still using the kelly system to either get out of my trades or figure out initial position size.

Here's the link for the Kelly:
www.bjmath.com/bjmath/thorp/paper.htm

and you can always google Kelly System

Happy Trading!
  • #48
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:04pm Feb 9, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting lexazver
Mikhail, one thing ive noticed is that your EA opens orders before candle closes i mean as soon as cross happens it opens a trade but the candle can close in the way that setup wouldnt happen , which brongs me to another point , i checked the chart that STRATEGY TESTER gave me and sometimes positions open when EMA5 crosses only one of the red lines and not the other which give negative trades but if you wait untill it crosses fully and then enter at the open of a new candle it gives good entry.
Hello Sorry for the late reply just got back home... Anyways if you want to wait for candle to close before opening position simply set ConfirmedOnEntry = true This could be found in external variables.

Hope that helps,
Mikhail
  • #49
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:12pm Feb 9, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting FXLogic
Have you tested for other months, too? I'm just wondering how this would do in choppier markets, like we had for the first half of 2005 or during the summer of most any year. If it's profitable in those periods without any serious drawdowns, it may have a lot potential.

Hey FXLogic.. I think there were some people on this thread that did extensive research on those time frames. I can only test over a year with 1Hr charts for some reason.. I tested it with the 1hr on the GBP YTD at 51.7% profitablity... This can definitely be stretched out with Money Mangement and Stop Losses set on the opposite side of the MA's rather than a set number.

I also traded the GBP and EUR Crosses (I usually only trade those) and have had the same results... much better on the GBP/Yen and EUR/Yen crosses.
  • #50
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:17pm Feb 9, 2007 1:17pm
Quoting cgldsmth
mmm, the EA opened a buy on EURJPY at 1500GMT with no sign of a signal on the chart (M30)
Hello This is a valid trade according to the rules in the EA. If you refer to the first post EA will take trade if a cross occurs in either the MACD or the MA and both signals agree. You would see that the MACD diped and crossed again back up to the zero line, at the same time MA was pointing in the same direction, so trade was taken.

The trade was profitable anywyas right so no worries

Currently 3 closed trades from 3 different pairs all hit TP( my TP settings are exactly the same as that of the orginal method exept my stoploss is set at 20pips)
Regards,
Mikhail
  • #51
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:32pm Feb 9, 2007 1:32pm
so maybe forward testing with the EA is the way to go or is it too early to say. but 3 out of 3 so far does not look like a strategy that will produce such nice downward equity curves. well we will see, and Mikhail thanks for all the effort you are putting into this ea.

Quoting mikhaildgreat
Hello This is a valid trade according to the rules in the EA. If you refer to the first post EA will take trade if a cross occurs in either the MACD or the MA and both signals agree. You would see that the MACD diped and crossed again back up to the zero line, at the same time MA was pointing in the same direction, so trade was taken.

The trade was profitable anywyas right so no worries

Currently 3 closed trades from 3 different pairs all hit TP( my TP settings are exactly the same as that of the orginal method exept my stoploss is set at 20pips)
Regards,
Mikhail
  • #52
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:35pm Feb 9, 2007 1:35pm
Quoting mwilkinw
Hey FXLogic.. I think there were some people on this thread that did extensive research on those time frames. I can only test over a year with 1Hr charts for some reason.. I tested it with the 1hr on the GBP YTD at 51.7% profitablity... This can definitely be stretched out with Money Mangement and Stop Losses set on the opposite side of the MA's rather than a set number.

I also traded the GBP and EUR Crosses (I usually only trade those) and have had the same results... much better on the GBP/Yen and EUR/Yen crosses.
Hmm... thats a good idea but wouldnt we be sacrificing Risk Reward Ratio By doing this? putting SL above MAs would mean bigger stops and our gains per trade would still be really small...

I think So many pips are wasted with these small TPs, I believe in letting the winners run, and cutting the losers short, IF we find a good exit strategy then we can do this, But on the other hand by doing this we are already making a whole new strategy...

-Mikhail
  • #53
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:45pm Feb 9, 2007 1:45pm
LOL! Thank you to whoever put that one star rating to this thread! LOL
  • #54
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:51pm Feb 9, 2007 1:51pm
Quoting mikhaildgreat
LOL! Thank you to whoever put that one star rating to this thread! LOL
Well that is taken care of... LOL I don't have enough to move it al the way up, but maybe others will pitch in
  • #55
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:55pm Feb 9, 2007 1:55pm
Did the EA call this GBP/JPY Long ? And if so what price?
  • #56
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:59pm Feb 9, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting mikhaildgreat
Hmm... thats a good idea but wouldnt we be sacrificing Risk Reward Ratio By doing this? putting SL above MAs would mean bigger stops and our gains per trade would still be really small...

I think So many pips are wasted with these small TPs, I believe in letting the winners run, and cutting the losers short, IF we find a good exit strategy then we can do this, But on the other hand by doing this we are already making a whole new strategy...

-Mikhail

No not at all.. I said on the opposite side of the MA's (opposite side of what your position is) either using them as support or resistance.. this allows you to stay in the trade longer! This keeps the validity of the system but allows you to manipulate your exits for the most profit...

I only suggest doing this after the trade is profitable. I enter the trade after the cross and have a SL of 30.. therefore I'm below the MA's initally. Once I'm profitable, either scale out and preserve profit and move SL to the MA's using them either as support or resistance depending on your trade... or scale in and do the same with the SL.

Either way your maximizing your gains... because if you keep your stop the same as your entry position it will be on the opposite side of the MA's( which side, obviously depends on what trade you're in Long or Short) ... Therefore if you're stopped out it triggers an opposite order...where now your losses are larger than if you scaled in or out and moved your SL to the MA's.

Either way it comes down to Money Management to get the most out of every trade... but that is the best way to squeeze as much profit from the trade as possible. And like you said, you have to let your winners run... Holding your SL at your inital entry and not scaling in or out can be detrimental!
  • #57
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:10pm Feb 9, 2007 2:10pm
Quoting mwilkinw
No not at all.. I said on the opposite side of the MA's (opposite side of what your position is) either using them as support or resistance.. this allows you to stay in the trade longer! This keeps the validity of the system but allows you to manipulate your exits for the most profit...

I only suggest doing this after the trade is profitable. I enter the trade after the cross and have a SL of 30.. therefore I'm below the MA's initally. Once I'm profitable, either scale out and preserve profit and move SL to the MA's using them either as support or resistance depending on your trade... or scale in and do the same with the SL.

Either way your maximizing your gains... because if you keep your stop the same as your entry position it will be on the opposite side of the MA's( which side, obviously depends on what trade you're in Long or Short) ... Therefore if you're stopped out it triggers an opposite order...where now your losses are larger than if you scaled in or out and moved your SL to the MA's.

Either way it comes down to Money Management to get the most out of every trade... but that is the best way to squeeze as much profit from the trade as possible. And like you said, you have to let your winners run... Holding your SL at your inital entry and not scaling in or out can be detrimental!
We could explore further on this idea. but looking at the charts 85 and 75 MA looks to far if we are going to use it as some sort of trailing stop. We would be sacrificing so much significant profit here. Im thinking of adding another MA for trailing stop purposes only, like period 50(as used by another method that I cannot recall right now)

Anyways we can explore more in this idea but I believe this should be a different method and EA, dont want to bastardize forexexpert310's method.

Regards,
Mikhail
  • #58
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:12pm Feb 9, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting Forex1man
Did the EA call this GBP/JPY Long ? And if so what price?
Sorry Im not testing GBPJPY because The original method did not mention trading this pair.

-Mikhail
  • #59
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:17pm Feb 9, 2007 2:17pm
Quoting mikhaildgreat
We could explore further on this idea. but looking at the charts 85 and 75 MA looks to far if we are going to use it as some sort of trailing stop. We would be sacrificing so much significant profit here. Im thinking of adding another MA for trailing stop purposes only, like period 50(as used by another method that I cannot recall right now)

Anyways we can explore more in this idea but I believe this should be a different method and EA, dont want to bastardize forexexpert310's method.

Regards,
Mikhail


hahahha!! You're funny! Good work on the EA by the way! Of course we wouldn't want to "bastardize" anything! Unfortunately I must not be explaining myself correctly... I don't mean using the MA's for a trailing stop... but I'm looking forward to your Trailing stop MA (which I think is a good idea)!
  • #60
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:48pm Feb 9, 2007 2:48pm
Quoting mwilkinw
hahahha!! You're funny! Good work on the EA by the way! Of course we wouldn't want to "bastardize" anything! Unfortunately I must not be explaining myself correctly... I don't mean using the MA's for a trailing stop... but I'm looking forward to your Trailing stop MA (which I think is a good idea)!
LOL, sorry for not understanding whatever you are trying to tell me. I'll read up on Kelly's MM method maybe after I read it I will understand the strategy you are proposing.

But right now im signing out, im going out of town tomorrow, so best of luck at the market to all you traders.

Regards,
Mikhial
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