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Slow Year

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 9, 2007 4:02am Feb 9, 2007 4:02am
Any one else finding 2007 a tough year to make money news trading forex so far?

News releases are tending to be close to consensus and the movements limited. I hope volatility picks up soon.
Forex rules
  • #2
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:12am Feb 9, 2007 4:12am
Not only are consensus very near the actual, but when the numbers are really bad/strong, the price actions are limited.

It all started last US Retail Sales. The number was very USD Positive but the rally was shortlived and reversed instead. Then UK CPI and Retail Sales did the same thing.

January 15 has been the turning point for me. I ended up with very minimal profit for January. And for Feb, im still in profit after NFP but have lost 3 in the last 4 trades thereafter.

Later, we will get CAD Employment data. I sure hope there would be a big movememnt in that.

Words of Advice: When in loosing streak, lessen the risk by lowering lot sizes. THis has preserved myself last September (after my account in a certain broker got a huge whacking) and has since used proper Money Management to slowly recover.
  • #3
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:24am Feb 9, 2007 4:24am
Quoting BurgerKing
Not only are consensus very near the actual, but when the numbers are really bad/strong, the price actions are limited.

It all started last US Retail Sales. The number was very USD Positive but the rally was shortlived and reversed instead. Then UK CPI and Retail Sales did the same thing.

January 15 has been the turning point for me. I ended up with very minimal profit for January. And for Feb, im still in profit after NFP but have lost 3 in the last 4 trades thereafter.

Later, we will get CAD Employment data. I sure hope there would be a big movememnt in that.

Words of Advice: When in loosing streak, lessen the risk by lowering lot sizes. THis has preserved myself last September (after my account in a certain broker got a huge whacking) and has since used proper Money Management to slowly recover.
I have to agree with you - I am trading smaller lot sizes until volatility returns. I have found the same, when the deviation triggers have been hit, movement hasn't been anywhere near normal. Holding out for CAD employment later, this has been a good trade over the last couple of months - so lets hope the analysts have a bad day today....

Anyone have any views as to why volatility at news time has been so bad?
  • #4
  • Feb 9, 2007 5:08am Feb 9, 2007 5:08am
I think another aspect of it is the markets have been strongly trending. Therefore if you get a big off-consensus report, traders are just using the opportunity to get in a better levels, hence a lot of retracements.

Therefore, with the CAD employment today. The trend is very CAD bearish, so the best thing for a trade would be -10k jobs or less to really assault the 1.19 level. If its 30k jobs+ I doubt it will break below 1.18 for long, if at all.
Forex rules
  • #5
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:11am Feb 9, 2007 6:11am
Quoting BurgerKing
Not only are consensus very near the actual, but when the numbers are really bad/strong, the price actions are limited.

It all started last US Retail Sales. The number was very USD Positive but the rally was shortlived and reversed instead. Then UK CPI and Retail Sales did the same thing.

January 15 has been the turning point for me. I ended up with very minimal profit for January. And for Feb, im still in profit after NFP but have lost 3 in the last 4 trades thereafter.

Later, we will get CAD Employment data. I sure hope there would be a big movememnt in that.

Words of Advice: When in loosing streak, lessen the risk by lowering lot sizes. THis has preserved myself last September (after my account in a certain broker got a huge whacking) and has since used proper Money Management to slowly recover.
Well, BK - it certainly moved - hallelujah - some pips in the bank
  • #6
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:18am Feb 9, 2007 6:18am
Quoting dsb104
Any one else finding 2007 a tough year to make money news trading forex so far?
News releases are tending to be close to consensus and the movements limited. I hope volatility picks up soon.

What about January NFP and also the surprise rate hike by the BOE in the same month? These 2 announcements alone produced lots of pips for news traders in January.
I agree with you that it's been sluggish since end January/start of february so far. And I tell you what Burgerking regarding your last 3 news trades being losers, you are not alone. Thanks goodness that the CAD employment report produced some pips.
  • #7
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:22am Feb 9, 2007 6:22am
CAD Employment report also saved my day
Made some pips and ending this week with positive results.
  • #8
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:34am Feb 9, 2007 6:34am
Me too. Thanks to a massive deviation. I hope next week is good for news trades too.
Forex rules
  • #9
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:49am Feb 9, 2007 6:49am
I changed to a lower caliber and bagged a small prize instead of the usual big game.

I am ending the week with net loss but I live to fight another week with more experience/knowledge to trade better the next time.

I hope that CAD Employment data is the turn around that we are all looking for!
  • #10
  • Last Post: Feb 9, 2007 6:53am Feb 9, 2007 6:53am
worst Week Ever for "straddle traders", no much DEV to move the trade, so end with whipsaws..
Last trade "CAD Employment Change" Bring us to life
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
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