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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,881
  • Jul 24, 2008 7:58am Jul 24, 2008 7:58am
whippy day! Who wants to own some dollars?
  • #3,882
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:03am Jul 24, 2008 8:03am
Hi ALL,

Looks like the BULLs are not letting go.
Got My Short USD out with good pip.

Have some Long USD positions now, will be formulating attack and rescue strategies after the NY lunch.

How's eveyone doing?

regards
  • #3,883
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:04am Jul 24, 2008 8:04am
Quoting jest1081
whippy day! Who wants to own some dollars?
Would like them after ny lunch , please?
Could I get discount?

regards
  • #3,884
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:12am Jul 24, 2008 8:12am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

Looks like the BULLs are not letting go.
Got My Short USD out with good pip.

Have some Long USD positions now, will be formulating attack and rescue strategies after the NY lunch.

How's eveyone doing?

regards
Hi fti,

fine that you made your pips!
For me it was my best trading day ever in the matter of profit.

Asia/London Session I played the Long side of USDJPY with a lot of rescues.
US Session I played the short side with out rescues.

Hope I can keep this mindset for a long time ;-)
  • #3,885
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:16am Jul 24, 2008 8:16am
Hi ALL,
just thinking out loud. Feel free to chip in.

We know that some Jap investors are buying into USD thru their funds manager. Seem large as it is impacting the yen crosses.

I speculated that maybe some of it would go into the freddie & fannie bailout and US assets.
If these were true, depending on the size of the thingy, it may still be unfinished business.

Another thought is that after the USD purchases which help the fed contain the 1.6 ceiling against the Eur. They are in profits already and it would be in their interest to support the USD when they can/ or if it is cheaper, whichever the case.

The figs released today only supports the fact that the US economy is not in shape, notwithstanding the speculation that she may already be in recession.

What is ticlkles me is the fact that my positions keep reverting to buying USD in a US recession scenerio. And the positions are promped bty the charts.

Is this prudent?
But of course the charts don't lie.

regards
  • #3,886
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:21am Jul 24, 2008 8:21am
fti,

one thing i remembered someone mentioned, trichet raised inflation in the EU zone one year after the US. So if they are running the same scenario, a year after the US, it wouldn't be a surprise that everyone is racing back to cheaper USD for value hunting. Will the hunt work out over the long run? I still like Asia and the Aussie, maybe we're seeing some really heavy cooling down.
  • #3,887
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:21am Jul 24, 2008 8:21am
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti,

fine that you made your pips!
For me it was my best trading day ever in the matter of profit.

Asia/London Session I played the Long side of USDJPY with a lot of rescues.
US Session I played the short side with out rescues.

Hope I can keep this mindset for a long time ;-)
Hi MaMood,

Good form,Keep it up.
Better than me , I gave more than half my takings for today back at London zone. Now behaving like a pig to try recapture them.

From your post to DutchAngel, I detected that you may not have read this thread in totality? I hope I am wrong, just curious.

regards
  • #3,888
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:30am Jul 24, 2008 8:30am
Quoting jest1081
fti,

one thing i remembered someone mentioned, trichet raised inflation in the EU zone one year after the US. So if they are running the same scenario, a year after the US, it wouldn't be a surprise that everyone is racing back to cheaper USD for value hunting.
Hi jest,
That is true, but it seem that the japs have beat many to this advantage, based on what's been seen.

I have no problem at all following the charts lead.
Just that tere is is naggy feeling at the back of my mind, About the Long USD in their recession.
Feels little like catching a falling knife.
Only that from charts, it may be near the end.
Not so unlike A, I did feel kinda ceiling at the 1.6 Eur test, so we may have seen the uuper band tolerance of the feds, but tey are not God, if things do gets worse, it become hard to be supportive of USD.

like I said just thinking aloud, due to funny feeling and undertone.

Also i guess because of the big USD bull couple days back, I find the follow thru , very mild and controlled. Somethings amidst.

Based on the failure swing after bad figure releases, which is very telling, I would tend to expect a sell off in the Eur, NY afternoon. but of course this is just speculation. Best to follow the pulse.

regards
  • #3,889
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:31am Jul 24, 2008 8:31am
Quoting fti
[...]

From your post to DutchAngel, I detected that you may not have read this thread in totality? I hope I am wrong, just curious.

regards
Hi,

you are wrong - perish the thought.
at the moment I'm on the second read.

I had remembered DutchAngels mantra after I read it. but did not recap, that it was brought to us by you. Sorry!

For the next two hours I'm out for dinner.

CU later
  • #3,890
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:43am Jul 24, 2008 8:43am
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

you are wrong - perish the thought.
at the moment I'm on the second read.

I had remembered DutchAngels mantra after I read it. but did not recap, that it was brought to us by you. Sorry!

For the next two hours I'm out for dinner.

CU later
Hi, ok
noted.
Bon appetite.

regards
  • #3,891
  • Edited 8:47am Jul 24, 2008 8:43am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting fti
From your post to DutchAngel, I detected that you may not have read this thread in totality? I hope I am wrong, just curious.

regards
fti
You are wrong, in fact I have just finished re-reading it for 3rd time today. Have also just compiled an 83 page document of the thread which I am editing to remove typos etc. Curious about what gave you the idea tho.

Regarding promised pdf. I have tried to mail it to you numerous times now, but it seems I have a mail server problem. I am waiting for hubby to resolve it for me.

I actually wanted you to confirm an assumption of mine. In the beginning of the thread you said you were going to give us lesson 3, the Blitzkrieg. Zoran questioned you about this a couple of weeks later, as it seemed that you still hadn't given it to us yet. My assumption is that the blitzkrieg lesson is actually the attack and rescue mission. Am I correct?

kind regards

Sorry misread your post fti. Been a long, hot day here. Concentration is flagging I am afraid.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #3,892
  • Edited 9:20am Jul 24, 2008 9:02am | Edited 9:20am
Quoting DutchAngel
fti
You are wrong, in fact I have just finished re-reading it for 3rd time today. Have also just compiled an 83 page document of the thread which I am editing to remove typos etc. Curious about what gave you the idea tho.

Regarding promised pdf. I have tried to mail it to you numerous times now, but it seems I have a mail server problem. I am waiting for hubby to resolve it for me.

I actually wanted you to confirm an assumption of mine. In the beginning of the thread you said you were going to give us lesson 3, the Blitzkrieg. Zoran questioned you about this a couple of weeks later, as it seemed that you still hadn't given it to us yet. My assumption is that the blitzkrieg lesson is actually the attack and rescue mission. Am I correct?

kind regards
Hi DutchAngel,

Sorry, Must have spoken badly.
I was asking MaMood, since he asked you about your mantra thingy.

Yes, Lesson 3 is the last Chapter in my Forexangels, it is about how to put the rescue and attack thingy together in market making. and the way to incorporate the fundamental perspectives into the skew and sliding between the skews of the spiral within a spiral.
After posting it, I felt that it was more suited for dealing room purposes, so I didn't go there.
The relevant stuff, I had just given ad hoc , in the general discussions following.

Moreover to be able to do Blitzkrieg MO it requires massive capitalisation , quite OT for non corporation traders. More suited for big boys market makers.

Even myself is unable to use that MO due to capitalisation restrains, even now.

There's actually noting worthwhile to compile,
The Mindset aspects are covered in AOW,
The Money management aspect is a derivative from the fibo or arithematic spiral sequense.
And the rest is all your trader sense and market experience, esp in Chart Patterns Analysis.

Its only that the uninitiated will find the MM aspects very disorientating. esp the P&L snowballing. Without actual exposure practise it is difficult to accept/understand.


regards
  • #3,893
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:57am Jul 24, 2008 9:57am
Hummmm....... will the NY boys push it for the 5610 level or is this little double bottom it for the day.....decisions decisions......
  • #3,894
  • Jul 24, 2008 10:08am Jul 24, 2008 10:08am
Quoting auxesis
Hummmm....... will the NY boys push it for the 5610 level or is this little double bottom it for the day.....decisions decisions......
Hi auxesis,
In fact, I don't like today's market behaviour at all, although I am making the pips,
It likes to do jerking motions then goes into hybernation and jerk again.
This prompts me that market is extremely manipulated.
Super manipulated and thin.
Unfortunately I cannot see paper flow, but I think the suspicion is very valid.
This doesn't feel like the forex market at all.
The 1.5610 level will probably come if stops are triggered late CME.
otherwise the markets will probably be put to rest here.


regards
  • #3,895
  • Jul 24, 2008 10:23am Jul 24, 2008 10:23am
Quoting fti
Hi auxesis,
In fact, I don't like today's market behaviour at all, although I am making the pips,
It likes to do jerking motions then goes into hybernation and jerk again.
This prompts me that market is extremely manipulated.
Super manipulated and thin.
Unfortunately I cannot see paper flow, but I think the suspicion is very valid.
This doesn't feel like the forex market at all.
The 1.5610 level will probably come if stops are triggered late CME.
otherwise the markets will probably be put to rest here.


regards
Fti,

Thanks for the insights, very interesting. Hate to get predictive, the thread discourages any crystal ball readings But the standard price MO lately has been push for the daily move until lunch NY, sometimes retest that, but normally distribute and retrace back to a daily mean by Tokyo. Just the time of day and chart view, looks like we are at the end of the daily run, could always be wrong.

And to boot it seems that Fridays usually finish off the weeks business, kinda why i felt today would be the euro's day leading into tomorrow. That boaderlines crystal ball reading i know, i just feels like the usd bulls, who ever they are would like to trigger some tech levels to make everyone think.

I have to agree with you about jumping on the doillar train when things are so ugly here...... maybe it's the election boost????

See if my euro longs are gonna hold the line or turn and retreat here.

regards,
a
  • #3,896
  • Edited 10:55am Jul 24, 2008 10:32am | Edited 10:55am
May have to get large pliers to remove big fish hook from my mouth here in a minute

fish hook removed.
  • #3,897
  • Jul 24, 2008 10:53am Jul 24, 2008 10:53am
Quoting DutchAngel
fti


Sorry misread your post fti. Been a long, hot day here. Concentration is flagging I am afraid.
Hi,
No worries, I understand.

Same here, Its been a long long day.
Today the weather here is super cold, due to thunderstorm.

And I had been trading like a greedy pig.
Although I made good pips USD, long then short then long again.
Gotta clear the bad mindset, For today, the charts to be blamed.She's bad. Actually , its my bad.

Goodnight.

regards
  • #3,898
  • Jul 24, 2008 12:25pm Jul 24, 2008 12:25pm
Fti,

I looked back through the thread, didn't see anything, so if you've already covered this please excuse the reasking......... what exactly were you looking at in the price action that made you think it was a cemetery?

Missed this one??????????


thanks,

a
Attached Image
  • #3,899
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:03pm Jul 24, 2008 1:03pm
THIS POST IS LATE REPLY TO EARLIER HAPPENINGS

Originally Posted by seeit View Post
To the majority here that are thankful for the attention and teachings , they abide by the few, simple requests made of us.
---Do not call fti ...Sir...
---Do not pursue his identity.
---Do not give opinions.
---respect that others might enjoy life's vises. The one mother we had, has left.

Quoting fti
Hi,
Whats that about. Who asked for that?
If no one gave any opnions here I would have to chatty with my lonesome day in and day out.

children gets orphaned almost every day everywhere,
Please don't cry.
Hi seeit,
If anyone was most hammered during the meelee, it would be you.
I just wanted to let you know that I viewed your posting with candid, as you had always done. And with humour and good intents. So I hope you don't hammer goodself with any guilt.

Although I replyed your posting with humour, I am aware that you many not have felt the jesting in the reply.

About Leighsww's misunderstanding about my vice of smoking, I hope you will not be too sad that she mis-read you although I saw on first reading that it was about Zoran and my smoking habit. How she misread that to relate to her works, I don't know. It could have been due to your bad spelling. So it behoves you to improve your spelling.
Same for me.For me worst, gotta improve diction as well.
You were lucky that she didn't wip you for calling her, mother.

One of the lessons that Christ taught me, is that,
If A has 10USD and he gave to charity 1USD, it is noble.
But for B ,who has 10 cts and gave away 8 cts.
In my book, B has given more than A,
although the quantum that A gave may be larger than B.
So I hope that you will spend that 2 cts you have left wisely ,
since you have given away your 8 cts to the benefit of this thread.

By the way you don't ask questions,
You don't advice us on how you trade,
So are you benefitting from this thread?
I do wonder , how your trading is getting along.


regards
  • #3,900
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:21pm Jul 24, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting leighsww
Hmmmm, I am very disappointed that this is how you have seen my leaving this thread. I have nothing more of value to contribute here, so any posting that I would have made would have just been unnecessary reading for those who already have to catch up to the pages.

fti ... I am sorry if you feel betrayed by my developing my own style dancing and spreadsheet system. If you read my journal, you would understand. Please remember that it was you who had approached me to want to train me. I only PM'd you initially to give you your posts that were removed from the forums. When you first wanted to train me, I had initially told you that I was committed to following feb's method. You asked me to be "open minded" and said that you could still enhance some other areas of my learning, so I (with my hubby's encouragement) decided to take you up on your offer, thus I accepted humbly and appreciatively and was honored to have you teach me what you feel I should learn.

Originally, you weren't sure you wanted to post again to the forums, cuz they had banned you and probably didn't deserve your knowledge, but I encouraged you to share what I was learning with others here on the forum, because of several reasons:

1) I felt you were unjustly judged previously and could be redeemed and receive the just praises you deserve
2) Didn't want to keep you to myself when so many others could benefit by your wealth of knowledge
3) It was hard to get David on the chats we were having, and I didn't want him to be left out, since he was also supportive and understanding of you, from what happened at feb's thread. He stuck by you, as much as me.

If you do not remember this, I have my emails I can forward you, if you need reference to where what I say is true.

fti, as you know, I am a person who comes to people's defense when I feel they were treated unjustly. Well, I also come to my own defense when I feel I have been unjustly misjudged/treated, as well. I feel that both statements above are a little unfair. But, that's just my opinion.

seeit ... if you see what I have created with my spreadsheet/system as a "vice," then you do not understand my spreadsheet/system. For that I am sorry you see what I am trying to do as a vice.

If anybody else feels abandoned and upset with me, then I am truly sorry that you feel this way, but there's nothing I can do about that. You must search your own hearts and conscience to see if you are justified in feeling this way about me.

Anyway, I have said enough. Just cuz I am not posting anymore, didn't mean that I wasn't reading this thread. I was still enjoying the convos.

Okay, I am done. My posts have always been too long anyway, lol.

You guys are having a lot of FUN, and that is good. fti, if you don't use the whip more, I am going to have to take it back , haha.

Take care all

P.S. I still do care a lot about all of you here very much and I will miss the bantering with you all, but please don't feel that I have "orphaned" you (that truly hurts)

P.P.S. fti ... please don't take out on others here, if you become upset with what I have said above. If you stop posting because of what I have said, then you need to take a look at your "egor," cuz nobody here is at fault for my actions, and they should not be punished for it. They are your loyal students, so make sure you don't take it out on them. I'm not saying you would, but knowing your temper, I couldn't be sure, so I had to make sure by saying this so that if you stop posting, you'd be shamed for letting your scorpion take control (haha, how's that for ensuring that you keep posting!)
Hi Leighsww,
You asked that we should not respond to your postings, So in respect of your instructions, I will make this short and swift.

The above statements were said with humour. I don't know whats biting you, but I think you had been overly sensitive. I don't believe there is anyone in this world, so bankrupted that he/she has nothing to share. However I will respect your instructions as given.

regards
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