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  • #461
  • Jul 23, 2008 8:17am Jul 23, 2008 8:17am
Dang. What was with the GBP/CHF today. It went over 430 points without a retracement. I went ahead and took a loss on that one but stayed with the GBP/JPY since it bounced of off R3. Well, that is why I use a modified martingale. If you had used a regular martingale you would have lost your account today. Instead I just took a big loss which wiped out most of my profits for the last 5 days but my account is still intact. So I live to trade another day. If some of the other currencies come through I can still make a profit for the week but it wont be very big. Well we will see what happens next?
  • #462
  • Jul 23, 2008 10:31am Jul 23, 2008 10:31am
All of mine are down as well. The Sell EA never entered me into the GBP/CHF so I was able to cancel that one unharmed - it's a little tough for me to follow these trades because I'm at work 12 hours a day but every couple of hours I'm able to take a peek. I see that you're a teacher in China, how's your experience been with following this system while holding down a job.

Also, Do you ever find the correlation between other currencies to be a big problem with trading this many pairs. For instance, I'm short 5 pairs but they are all against the JPY & CHF. Essentially I really only have two big shorts against these currencies and if they act contrary to the indicators it really compounds the losses. With the JPY for example, would it ever make sense to just pick the best setup of the three pairs showing sell signals rather than enter all three? I ususally don't follow this many pairs so I'd like to see your thoughts on this.
  • #463
  • Jul 23, 2008 10:42am Jul 23, 2008 10:42am
Thanks Bob for your energy and leadership in this thread. I am posting this chart to share with the group three other filters to help identify potentially productive trades....

The Gann Hi Lo Activator acts as a notch filter. When price is above the blue line, the immediate 4 hr trend is up. Unlike a moving average filter, the Gann HL will act like a notch filer (ham radio jargon) to decisively indicate when the trend is down. I have a long version in brick red that is based on 100 period or bars and the short blue one that is looking back 7 periods.

The ADX indicator is useful in seeing at a glance the strength of how well the market is moving, either up or down. A value abbove 16 indicates either a positive (green) or negative (red) trend...

Psar, or Parabolic stop and resistance is another trend notch filter. I am using the custom input variables of .03, .2 It does an excellent job of picking trend reversals and encoragement to stay in a trade during the trend. During choppy times, it can be problematic, however.

Finally, I have added a multiple time frame perspective to the stochastic oscillator. Staying aware of a larger perspective is very important in serving as a road map to your trade activity. A time frame that is larger than the one you are in acts as a kind of magnet always drawing the move back to itself. Notice I have a 4 hr Stochactic (14,3,5) in blue, a 1 day 8,3,3 stochastic in Orange and a 1 week 5.3.3 all together with the MACD in the bottom window. Periods of confluence around the 80 level or the 20 level are particularly important.

So, here is a breakdown of the 3 circled areas....

1. 1X2 Warning drew a green arrow, blue 4hr stoch is crossing the MACD upward, the Weekly Stoch is in an up trend, the large green bar broke through the blue Gann HL, the Psar dot moved underneath the bar, there is a positive bounce off of the trend line (almost touched). To be a bit more conservative, because the 1 day stochastic is still moving down, you could wait for the retracement to finish playing out. A decisive MACD cross of the 1 day stoch seems to be a good signal as well as the second green arrow on the 1X2. Notice the 100 period Gann hl has been crossed... all signs are up for a long position.

2. Same senario, only now in reverse... Psar dot forms above the bar, Red arrow appears, blue stoch crosses MACD, then 1 day Stoch, then 1 week stoch... all in Overbought territory. The weekly is still trending up or perhaps reversing... we won't know until...

3. Here is a reinforcement of the Short in #2... The weekly is now trending down... other signals include Psar dot, Red arrow, Gann HL blue notch shows a short, Daily stoch is down and 4 hr blue stoch first signaled this cascading series of events by its slope turning negative and crossing first the weekly stochastic.

I am posting the indicators as well as a template in order to help anyone that would like to quickly set this up on your chart. I like the idea of keeping my charts spare and stripped down... but I also believe that keeping an eye on multiple time frames at the same time can really help keep you out of trouble as well....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Grail MTF chart.jpg Size: 358 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ###Gann_HiLo_Activator_V2###.ex4   2 KB | 557 downloads
File Type: mq4 #MTF_Stochastic.mq4   4 KB | 558 downloads
File Type: mq4 1X2 NO WARNING ALERT.mq4   4 KB | 642 downloads
File Type: tpl multi time frame grail.tpl   8 KB | 519 downloads
  • #464
  • Jul 23, 2008 2:51pm Jul 23, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting Lincoln10
All of mine are down as well. The Sell EA never entered me into the GBP/CHF so I was able to cancel that one unharmed - it's a little tough for me to follow these trades because I'm at work 12 hours a day but every couple of hours I'm able to take a peek. I see that you're a teacher in China, how's your experience been with following this system while holding down a job.

Also, Do you ever find the correlation between other currencies to be a big problem with trading this many pairs. For instance, I'm short 5 pairs but they are all against the JPY & CHF. Essentially I really only have two big shorts against these currencies and if they act contrary to the indicators it really compounds the losses. With the JPY for example, would it ever make sense to just pick the best setup of the three pairs showing sell signals rather than enter all three? I ususally don't follow this many pairs so I'd like to see your thoughts on this.
Actually it is when all of a currency group shows the same on the indicators, to me that shows how strong the move is going to be. What happened with the GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY is they often move in tandem. Those two are the most profitable but also the most volatile of all the currencies. If you ever run into trouble they are usually the biggest violators. The EUR/CHF did the same move but with fewer pips and is an excellent trade at now at level 3. The GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY had already pulled 5 profits before this 1 loss so I cant really feel that bad about it. Plus they are still in position to profit for me again. I am at level 8 with the GBP/JPY waiting for the downward break and the GBP/CHF I am at level 1 after taking my loss. At some point they will retrace, all currencies do but at some point, you get these unordinary runs and they are unexpected. However, if you have been trading long enough , you know taking a loss is part of trading no matter what system you use. The thing I have tried to do is show you, you can Martingale trade, if you modify it. With my trade system, if you hit a death trade or potential death trade, it doesnt wipe out your account which all other Martingale systems do at some point. To me I hated the trade, taking a loss but it also gives everyone following this thread a live example of how to exit one and recognize one. Instead of hanging on and hoping for a reversal 350-400 pips is the limit so get out. My loss I will recover in a couple of days and continue on increasing my account. That has been my experience.

The reason I trade 4H chart is because I am gone from my job all day also and cant follow the trades all day. But with a 350-400 pip range with my EA I dont have to worry about a bad trade. I had all day to take care of this trade and I finally made a decision to get out of one at about 9 hours after I recognize it could be a trouble trade. As soon as the GBP/CHF broke the resistance line of the last 4 weeks I knew it could be trouble. I probably should have closed the trade since I was already at level 4 and then I would be in your position where it hadnt entered yet. You are in a great position. I am also but if it continues going north, I will have to close the GBP/JPY for a loss also. I get my retracement on that one I will gain back most of my loss and will still be in position to make a profit for the week. If I dont I will have my first losing week in a long time. It happens.
  • #465
  • Jul 23, 2008 2:55pm Jul 23, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting jnevins
Thanks Bob for your energy and leadership in this thread. I am posting this chart to share with the group three other filters to help identify potentially productive trades....

The Gann Hi Lo Activator acts as a notch filter. When price is above the blue line, the immediate 4 hr trend is up. Unlike a moving average filter, the Gann HL will act like a notch filer (ham radio jargon) to decisively indicate when the trend is down. I have a long version in brick red that is based on 100 period or bars and the short blue one that is looking back 7 periods.

The ADX indicator is useful in seeing at a glance the strength of how well the market is moving, either up or down. A value abbove 16 indicates either a positive (green) or negative (red) trend...

Psar, or Parabolic stop and resistance is another trend notch filter. I am using the custom input variables of .03, .2 It does an excellent job of picking trend reversals and encoragement to stay in a trade during the trend. During choppy times, it can be problematic, however.

Finally, I have added a multiple time frame perspective to the stochastic oscillator. Staying aware of a larger perspective is very important in serving as a road map to your trade activity. A time frame that is larger than the one you are in acts as a kind of magnet always drawing the move back to itself. Notice I have a 4 hr Stochactic (14,3,5) in blue, a 1 day 8,3,3 stochastic in Orange and a 1 week 5.3.3 all together with the MACD in the bottom window. Periods of confluence around the 80 level or the 20 level are particularly important.

So, here is a breakdown of the 3 circled areas....

1. 1X2 Warning drew a green arrow, blue 4hr stoch is crossing the MACD upward, the Weekly Stoch is in an up trend, the large green bar broke through the blue Gann HL, the Psar dot moved underneath the bar, there is a positive bounce off of the trend line (almost touched). To be a bit more conservative, because the 1 day stochastic is still moving down, you could wait for the retracement to finish playing out. A decisive MACD cross of the 1 day stoch seems to be a good signal as well as the second green arrow on the 1X2. Notice the 100 period Gann hl has been crossed... all signs are up for a long position.

2. Same senario, only now in reverse... Psar dot forms above the bar, Red arrow appears, blue stoch crosses MACD, then 1 day Stoch, then 1 week stoch... all in Overbought territory. The weekly is still trending up or perhaps reversing... we won't know until...

3. Here is a reinforcement of the Short in #2... The weekly is now trending down... other signals include Psar dot, Red arrow, Gann HL blue notch shows a short, Daily stoch is down and 4 hr blue stoch first signaled this cascading series of events by its slope turning negative and crossing first the weekly stochastic.

I am posting the indicators as well as a template in order to help anyone that would like to quickly set this up on your chart. I like the idea of keeping my charts spare and stripped down... but I also believe that keeping an eye on multiple time frames at the same time can really help keep you out of trouble as well....
Interesting I will have to look at it. Thanks for sharing.
  • #466
  • Edited 5:30pm Jul 23, 2008 5:19pm | Edited 5:30pm
Here is a template that I run on GBPJPY, because it has alot of ticks.

This accumulates all of the currencies for a country it can and shows if the aggregate of that country's currency is increasing or decreasing. You can pair an increasing currency like GBP and then look at a decreasing currency like JPY and instantly see that GBPJPY is strengthening. Or you can look at USD and pair that with CHF and instantly see that USDCHF is strengthening. or in other words, the USD is stronger and the CHF is weaker. You can change the time frames to get a longer or shorter frame of reference.

Look at the GBP and the CHF. It is clear that the GBP is stronger and the CHF is weaker, meaning the GBPCHF is solidly increasing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: truepricemovement.gif Size: 23 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl truepricemove 6 majors.tpl   3 KB | 1,338 downloads
File Type: mq4 PriceTrueMovement.mq4   3 KB | 1,604 downloads
  • #467
  • Jul 23, 2008 7:45pm Jul 23, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting smjones
Here is a template that I run on GBPJPY, because it has alot of ticks.

This accumulates all of the currencies for a country it can and shows if the aggregate of that country's currency is increasing or decreasing. You can pair an increasing currency like GBP and then look at a decreasing currency like JPY and instantly see that GBPJPY is strengthening. Or you can look at USD and pair that with CHF and instantly see that USDCHF is strengthening. or in other words, the USD is stronger and the CHF is weaker. You can change the time frames to get a longer or shorter frame of reference.

Look at the GBP and the CHF. It is clear that the GBP is stronger and the CHF is weaker, meaning the GBPCHF is solidly increasing.
Thanks SM... What a novel and interesting approach... There seems to be a lot of merit to this view of the market. I just put on a short of the GBP/JPY based on what I saw from your indicator and template...
  • #468
  • Edited Jul 24, 2008 12:01am Jul 23, 2008 11:51pm | Edited Jul 24, 2008 12:01am
Lots of choices today before the Euro open:

BUYS: AUD/CAD AUD/USD EUR/CAD EUR/GBP EUR/USD
SELLS: AUD/NZD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF GBP/JPY USD/CHF USD/JPY

When I see this many currencies all line up like this as clear sells or clear buys it tells me something. There are some news stories coming out and the big boys have their trades lined up. Looking for a big day today
  • #469
  • Edited 1:15am Jul 24, 2008 12:16am | Edited 1:15am
Lots of choices today before the Euro open:

BUYS: AUD/CAD AUD/USD EUR/CAD EUR/GBP EUR/USD
SELLS: AUD/NZD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF GBP/JPY USD/CHF USD/JPY

When I see this many currencies all line up like this as clear sells or clear buys it tells me something. There are some news stories coming out and the big boys have their trades lined up. Looking for a big day today

Closed AUD/JPY 42 pips
NZD/JPY 100 pips and a +12 pips
CHF/JPY 70 pips
GBP/CHF -367 pips (cant win them all folks)

Now when I make these calls it does not mean I am entering the trades but I am turning the EA on so it can enter the trades at the MA cross.
  • #470
  • Jul 24, 2008 12:36am Jul 24, 2008 12:36am
I think you meant a short on USDCHF and USDJPY?

What is the reason for trading AUDUSD and not NZDUSD?

Does the AUDCAD MACD meet the parameters for attaching the EA?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad - 0724.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #471
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:20am Jul 24, 2008 1:20am
Quoting nvwine
I think you meant a short on USDCHF and USDJPY?

What is the reason for trading AUDUSD and not NZDUSD?

Does the AUDCAD MACD meet the parameters for attaching the EA?
Thanks for noticing the mistake, yes they are shorts. I even caught it and changed the trades but I guess I did not save them.

NZD/USD should be a buy, I just missed putting that one up. Here the Pic on the AUD/Cad, I use a MACD with histogram over the MACD that is in MT4. Their line are slightly different. They show a main line and bars. The MACD shows MAIN line, SIGNAL line and BARS. I have the bars and Main line turned off. The MACD in MT4 does not have that second line. That is why our lines are a little different.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud cad.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #472
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:35am Jul 24, 2008 1:35am
YEAH the gbp/chf and gbp/jpy have taken their 100 points already today. They both have reentered for the second 100. Been waiting all week for this. Too bad I had to take that one loss first. I took the 40 pip profit on the Eur/gbp. That was a big surprise. Probably took it too early but dont see that one make such a quickie before.
  • #473
  • Edited 6:11am Jul 24, 2008 5:47am | Edited 6:11am
Hey I like to see indicators I havent seen before. Each one has its strengths and weaknesses. I found a weakness with the MACD, especially on currencies that move a lot of points and not so much on the average and slower currencies. Let me show you what I mean. Below is the GBP/CHF from the end of last week/beginning of the week. It shows a real nice set up for a sell. I took that trade and profited 100 pips on it Monday. The indicator showed this as a sell almost all week. I will show you the beginning and end of the week and you will see a startling result.

At the white dotted line which is the beginning of the market week we see a good setup to take a sell and I did. I made a profit and then reentered because it still looked good. Now go to the next post and I want to show you what it looks like today.
Attached Image
  • #474
  • Jul 24, 2008 5:50am Jul 24, 2008 5:50am
Now here is the same GBP/CHF Thursday and look back at the white dotted line which is the beginning of the week. You will notice that MACD line has slid down towards the middle showing that there was no trade. However the Sto lines remained where they were so there is a problem with mixing MACD with STO in that MACD will slide as price progresses. This of course can lead to false signals which was the downfall of the GBP/CHF trade I had this week. However, it did do very well with other currencies. So what is the solution. I tried many different indicators to go with the 2 sto lines and I have come up with one but it is going to need some testing and checking to make sure it does not slide. Next frame.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp chf.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #475
  • Edited 6:14am Jul 24, 2008 5:57am | Edited 6:14am
Here is a pic of 2 sto lines and an MA line on the stochastic oscillator. I changed the MA to blue as compared to gold for the MACD. Notice it imitated closely what the MACD did but notice that after the first successful trade last week on GBY/CHF, I also could have taken a second Monday. There was no indication to take a trade Tuesday or Wednesday like I had using the MACD line. I would have not reentered and I would not have taken that losing trade. It also indicated accurately todays trade that I still have going. So I attached the template for this new indicator and want others to test it and let me know what they think. According to this it is an accurate read but I dont know if the lines will slide over time like they did with MACD. I am also going to look at the post 463 that Jnevins posted and see if the indicators he posted will work with this better. I will look at Leguere and look at what SMJones posted. Maybe we can come up with something that will enhance this system.

Thanks guys/gals for your help.

Oh I picked up 100 pips on this trade today and now am going for the second hundred It is now in profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp chf 3.gif Size: 19 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 4h 2 sto 1 ma.tpl   5 KB | 432 downloads
  • #476
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:11pm Jul 24, 2008 1:11pm
A very clever modification of the martingale Bob! Thanks for the concept and the split expert for buy and sell. I started with it yesterday on a $3000 demo and am already up +$280 with most open trades moving in the right direction. I think I entered to early on several. partly for the reason you point out; the shifting Macd but partly my being too anxious to jump into a trade.

About the MAcd --it seems I've seen a Macd set up on a 1-100 range rather than the typical +/-. Haven't found it yet. Have tried to just set the range manually on the Macd but not sure thats the solution.
Thanks.

LeoM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macd_range.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #477
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:17pm Jul 24, 2008 1:17pm
9.33% return in one day on your demo account. At this point, determine what you did right and what you did wrong and take notes on both.

I hope that you can do this on a daily basis
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #478
  • Edited 4:54pm Jul 24, 2008 4:42pm | Edited 4:54pm
Quoting Leomeister
A very clever modification of the martingale Bob! Thanks for the concept and the split expert for buy and sell. I started with it yesterday on a $3000 demo and am already up +$280 with most open trades moving in the right direction. I think I entered to early on several. partly for the reason you point out; the shifting Macd but partly my being too anxious to jump into a trade.

About the MAcd --it seems I've seen a Macd set up on a 1-100 range rather than the typical +/-. Haven't found it yet. Have tried to just set the range manually on the Macd but not sure thats the solution.
Thanks.

LeoM
Fix the Min and Max, good idea, I will look at that. I like the MACD because it is such an industry standard. The sto is too fast, the MACD too slow, mix them and it seemed right. I would love to stay with my original concept.

I closed my eur/jpy (67), eur/gbp (44).

Eur/cad, GBP/CHF took hundred pips and am staying in
GBP/JPY took 2 100 pips and am staying in.
In fact all trades except E/J and E/G I am staying in.

Add as buys for JPY session
AUD/JPY CHF/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/USD

Since it is Friday I will be looking to close as many trades as possible before the weekend. It is very good policy to close them because gaping messes up the reentry sequence. So you want to close all unless you have a compelling reason to stay in.

Yesterday was my best day ever in trading. Already closed close to 500 pips and am still in profit on my remaining trades. I have never had such a big day before. Too bad it is in pennies but I will increase that soon. The GBP/CHF ruined what would have been my greatest week but it showed a weakness in my system that we hope to solve. Leomeister may have saved the day, thanks.
  • #479
  • Edited 5:10pm Jul 24, 2008 4:52pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting Leomeister
A very clever modification of the martingale Bob! Thanks for the concept and the split expert for buy and sell. I started with it yesterday on a $3000 demo and am already up +$280 with most open trades moving in the right direction. I think I entered to early on several. partly for the reason you point out; the shifting Macd but partly my being too anxious to jump into a trade.

About the MAcd --it seems I've seen a Macd set up on a 1-100 range rather than the typical +/-. Haven't found it yet. Have tried to just set the range manually on the Macd but not sure thats the solution.
Thanks.

LeoM
One more thing, jumping in early actually helps your profit line because you get a multiple entry. Just dont jump in too early. The two currencies that can punish you for jumping in too early are the GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. The reason I love this is, it is very forgiving for a poor entry. Instead of a stop loss or a bigger hole you go to the next level entry point and still am 100 points to take profit or less than 50 pips to a profitable position in most cases. I also set up my trades before each session and am done until the next session so it is not time consuming. Also I dont have to sit at the computer and watch over my trades, it is a set and forget system. Like yesterday I had to get visas for my family and was at the visa office, school, traveling all day. I wasnt at my computer for over 8 hours. On a 4H chart that is just two bars. It gives me some freedom to live. Finally, I dont think forex dealers can beat this unless you trade too much money and they can attack your margin ability. As long as you practice sound MM and dont use 1 dollar lots, unless you have 100,000 in your account, you can weather whatever the forex market throws at you.
  • #480
  • Jul 24, 2008 5:13pm Jul 24, 2008 5:13pm
Yesterday someone asked about life in China. My school website is

www.nanningtutoringcenter.com

I hope I am not violating any FF rules by publishing my school website. I dont mean to and you can delete this post if it does.
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