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Daily EUR/JPY analysis

  • #701
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:10pm Jul 23, 2008 11:10pm
is everyone still short e/j?
  • #702
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:13pm Jul 23, 2008 11:13pm
Quoting rogerdoger
is everyone still short e/j?
no
FUBAR...
  • #703
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:15pm Jul 23, 2008 11:15pm
Strong bid tone @ 22.5-23.5 with 31.2 yards 2 house making the spread
offers @ 24.5-26.5 with 20 yards

** careful of the book getting swept **
  • #704
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:21pm Jul 23, 2008 11:21pm
Quoting rogerdoger
is everyone still short e/j?
Closed my Short at Market. My Advice Stand Clear until EURO session opens ...
  • #705
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:23pm Jul 23, 2008 11:23pm
Quoting poweredbuyer
Closed my Short at Market. My Advice Stand Clear until EURO session opens ...
my thougts exactly
  • #706
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:39pm Jul 23, 2008 11:39pm
Quoting rogerdoger
my thougts exactly
Since its bed time for me and I need my sleep I have two orders pending based on the EURO Open and news release.

1. LONG EUR/JPY @ 169.750 TP 170.350 SL 169.350
2. SHORT EUR/JPY @ 168.900 TP 167.800 SL 169.350

Keep in mind if we do go SHORT ie. Bad EURO data I see more downside to possibly 167.000 or lower but im playin it safe.

On the upside I think a break of 170.000 we will face some psychological resistance forcing the price down therefore Trade # 1 may not be the best.
  • #707
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:40pm Jul 23, 2008 11:40pm
Quoting poweredbuyer
Since its bed time for me and I need my sleep I have two orders pending based on the EURO Open and news release.

1. LONG EUR/JPY @ 169.750 TP 170.350 SL 169.350
2. SHORT EUR/JPY @ 168.900 TP 167.800 SL 169.350

Keep in mind if we do go SHORT ie. Bad EURO data I see more downside to possibly 167.000 or lower but im playin it safe.

On the upside I think a break of 170.000 we will face some psychological resistance forcing the price down therefore Trade # 1 may not be the best.

BTW I can't post my charts im remotley connected to my trading terminal from home. Will try to post before EURO open.

I'm off for a quick nap :-)
  • #708
  • Jul 24, 2008 12:20am Jul 24, 2008 12:20am
EMU: Market News Survey Of Economic Data Forecasts


[ 2008-07-24 ]



July July June
flash flash M3 M3
mfg svc 3 mm
PMI PMI y/y avg
--------------------------------------------------------
Median forecast* 48.7 48.8 10.4 10.4
High forecast 49.2 49.5 10.8 10.6
Low forecast 48.3 48.5 10.1 2.2
Previous period 49.2 49.1 10.5 10.4
--------------------------------------------------------
Number of responses 15 15 12 11
--------------------------------------------------------
Bank of America 48.7 48.7 10.4 2.2
Barclays Cap. 49.0 49.1 10.8 10.6
Commerzbank 48.5 48.5 10.3 na
DZ Bank 48.6 49.0 10.1 10.4
Dresdner Bank 48.8 49.5 na na
4Cast 48.7 48.6 10.4 10.5
Merrill Lynch 49.1 48.8 10.1 10.4
BNP Paribas 49.0 48.8 10.3 10.4
UBS 48.5 48.9 10.5 10.4
UniCredit MIB 49.2 48.8 10.4 na
West LB 48.5 49.0 10.7 10.6
Citi 48.3 48.5 na na
Goldman Sachs 48.9 49.0 na 10.4
Soc. Generale 48.5 49.0 10.4 10.5
Natixis 48.8 48.5 10.2 10.4
--------------------------------------------------------
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended
to represent a consensus
The survey was conducted on Friday, July 18.

[TOPICS: M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Subject Codes: PS/00000000, PS/A0000000, PS/REUTERS0, SU/M$XDS$, SU/M$X$$$, PC/date.200807240105
  • #709
  • Jul 24, 2008 12:32am Jul 24, 2008 12:32am
Quoting freetrader
MU: Market News Survey Of Economic Data Forecasts]
July July June
flash flash M3 M3
mfg svc 3 mm
PMI PMI y/y avg
--------------------------------------------------------
Median forecast* 48.7 48.8 10.4 10.4
High forecast 49.2 49.5 10.8 10.6
Low forecast 48.3 48.5 10.1 2.2
Previous period 49.2 49.1 10.5 10.4
--------------------------------------------------------
Number of responses 15 15 12 11

[TOPICS: M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Subject Codes: PS/00000000, PS/A0000000, PS/REUTERS0, SU/M$XDS$, SU/M$X$$$, PC/date.200807240105
Well this is all very cool I'm sure, but does it come with a secret decoder ring? Since your website says you trade a proprietary system not available in any store, or to the public, will you have to hurt me if I read this?

Are you long, short or sideways? Why to either of those positions? Are you sure you're on the right thread? Are you gonna keep postin that stuff? So many questions...
FUBAR...
  • #710
  • Jul 24, 2008 12:45am Jul 24, 2008 12:45am
LOL. I thought it was just me not being that bright. I have no idea what any of this is about. I still make pips though
Quoting ak4x
Well this is all very cool I'm sure, but does it come with a secret decoder ring? Since your website says you trade a proprietary system not available in any store, or to the public, will you have to hurt me if I read this?

Are you long, short or sideways? Why to either of those positions? Are you sure you're on the right thread? Are you gonna keep postin that stuff? So many questions...
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #711
  • Jul 24, 2008 12:52am Jul 24, 2008 12:52am
clarification


My post pertains to the upcoming EUR PMI releases. At Forex Factory we get forecast number and then the actual with revisions if necessary.

I shared the forecasts from various institutions:

read as follows: (decoder)

BoA = 48.7 (mfg pmi forecast) 48.7 (svc pmi...) 10.4 (M3 Y/Y) 2.2 (M3 3 month average)
  • #712
  • Jul 24, 2008 12:59am Jul 24, 2008 12:59am
Making higher highs, but lower troughs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ey.gif Size: 27 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #713
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:11am Jul 24, 2008 1:11am
Immediate Range Larger Range
EUR/JPY 169.00-170.00 168.20-171.00
  • #714
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:18am Jul 24, 2008 1:18am
Intraday EUR/JPY: The euro continues to have the Y170 region in focus, a move above which has Y170.50 resistance in view. Minor support is seen around Y169.05, Thursday's intraday low, and around Y168.60.

07-24-08 0211ET
  • #715
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:23am Jul 24, 2008 1:23am
EUR/JPY

Spot 0600 GMT****169.34
3 Day Trend*******Bullish
Weekly Trend *****Bullish
200 day ma ******162.09
3rd Resistance ****170.50
2nd Resistance ****170.21
1st Resistance *****170.00
Pivot* *********** 169.28
1st Support *******169.05
2nd Support ******168.60
3rd Support ******168.21
  • #716
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:45am Jul 24, 2008 1:45am
i cant bet against a long at the moment,despite the weakness in euro against major currencies,the yen remain lower even in the asian session.
i guess we have to wait a little more before the final fall which may come after price may have taken out the 170 psychological resistance.
  • #717
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:08am Jul 24, 2008 2:08am
Sent a SHORT probe @ 168.96!!

sonic
  • #718
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:11am Jul 24, 2008 2:11am
Hi all, just wake up from sleep. Wowowowow. My short is looking good. The candle is trying to penetrate the 1st support at 168.91 at 1hr TF. If it break out this support then my target to the 2nd support at 168.59.

Lower my SL to BE. Free trade now.
Go figure.. Simplicity work
  • #719
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:06am Jul 24, 2008 3:06am
Bingo...nice call!




Quoting poweredbuyer
Guys,


It might be somewhat of a wise idea to discard the technicals for just a brief moment and look at all the EUR data to come at 4am EST. This is interesting because I am almost certain that the

German Ifo Business Climate Index forecase of 100.2 is somewhat aggresive given the data we have thus far for Germ. Been researchin :-)

Normally I never trade the news but this might be a good setup.

I do expect the Euro to Tank tonight with the data, along with it will come a great short of the E/J however tight stops may not be wise cause prior to the release of this significant ammount of data their are often traps before it plummets. I'm stick with a little bit of a loose SL to avoid this ..

Anyone have thoughts based on the upcoming fundamentals.
  • #720
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:20am Jul 24, 2008 3:20am
i have 4 buy, and im at -200 pip at eur jpy
, i hope back to 170
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