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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,781
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:13am Jul 23, 2008 4:13am
Quoting fti
Hi
yeah bad time to buy, but its not getting any cheaper, anytime soon.

regards
Now that a paradox...
  • #3,782
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:17am Jul 23, 2008 4:17am
since we are talking I want to share something to get your comments or criticism.

when I hold a big position in the market with some attack or rescue troops in and the she turns against me.. and I can feel it that the impulse in opposite direction will continue I offload the position to re-enter at a better time, thus booking a temporal loss..

here is an example:
if i am long eurusd from 1.5950 and it goes down to 1.5930 and I feel like its a free fall till 1.5900 at least (even tho I am still euro bull and would not want to take a short), I offload the position and re-enter when it turns back in right direction. Thus this missed out exposure is same as if I would take a short from 1.5930 to 1.5900 and keep my original position open. Thus I actually short it by not being in the market.. hehe.

I don't know if I expressed myself in an understandable way. I hope you all got the idea.
  • #3,783
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:19am Jul 23, 2008 4:19am
Quoting maheswara
but wow 6 mil dollars for a 3 bedroom apartment ... u get one for 100k -200k usd here in the heart of the city ... either ur place is overvalued or my place is undervalued...
funnily half an hour from Singapore (by ferry) , an Indonesian island called batam is comparatively very very cheap ...
well, it has to depend very much on the location i guess. IMO sg is a tiny island, it wouldnt take you more than an hour to get to the city from anywhere. But we're getting too comfortable here.

I believe once the new highway and Mass rapid lines start running by 2010, the houses in the upper districts will be competetive to the ones in the prime areas too.

Im amassing a sum of money to invest in these properties, namely a coastal home in Punggol and the east coast. And one more in the prime district 11.
  • #3,784
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:28am Jul 23, 2008 4:28am
Quoting piccolo
fti, my only concern is that you don't exhaust yourself because you are too valuable.
Hi picolo.

Thank you for your kind thoughts for me.
I will keep it in mind, as it is my scorpion that I do push myself too hard some times, esp when means justifies the ends.

However. let me tell you a short story.
My mum, she has an old antique table that my dad bought , loooong ago.
She loves it so much that , noones was allowed to use to.
It is keep in a "special corner of the house.

Not long after my dad, kicked the bucket.
we discovered that her prize was destroyed internally by termites.
It was very sad for her to have lost both her prized belongings.
The lesson there is, as if God's message was "Use it or loose it"

So it seems in life , whatever that doesn't kill you, only makes you stronger.
thats the motto in my life. " Be Prepared"


regards
  • #3,785
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:28am Jul 23, 2008 4:28am
Quoting piccolo
since we are talking I want to share something to get your comments or criticism.

when I hold a big position in the market with some attack or rescue troops in and the she turns against me.. and I can feel it that the impulse in opposite direction will continue I offload the position to re-enter at a better time, thus booking a temporal loss..

here is an example:
if i am long eurusd from 1.5950 and it goes down to 1.5930 and I feel like its a free fall till 1.5900 at least (even tho I am still euro bull and would not want to take a short), I offload the position and re-enter when it turns back in right direction. Thus this missed out exposure is same as if I would take a short from 1.5930 to 1.5900 and keep my original position open. Thus I actually short it by not being in the market.. hehe.

I don't know if I expressed myself in an understandable way. I hope you all got the idea.
hi piccolo,

the way i see it, if the price movement is anything more than 20+pips over a number of bars, can be taken as an impulse, (i hope im not trying to be too rigid here).

My broker does not allow me to do a two way trade, so i would only see the market in one light, bull or bear. if im trading the impulse but im going against the daily trend, then i'll be nimble and be watchful for support areas, i tend to give more lax to positions thats going with the daily trend.
  • #3,786
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:33am Jul 23, 2008 4:33am
Quoting jest1081
hi piccolo,

the way i see it, if the price movement is anything more than 20+pips over a number of bars, can be taken as an impulse, (i hope im not trying to be too rigid here).

My broker does not allow me to do a two way trade, so i would only see the market in one light, bull or bear. if im trading the impulse but im going against the daily trend, then i'll be nimble and be watchful for support areas, i tend to give more lax to positions thats going with the daily trend.
You missed my point. Direction is the same but you just manage your position right.. you exit and re-enter on a better price (thus it is virtually the same as booking a profit on the short trade, except you don't enter a trade).
  • #3,787
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:40am Jul 23, 2008 4:40am
Quoting piccolo
You missed my point. Direction is the same but you just manage your position right.. you exit and re-enter on a better price (thus it is virtually the same as booking a profit on the short trade, except you don't enter a trade).
yes i think fti mentioned it at the beginning that for scout to enter n exit till comfortable , but huge position ... im more comfortable rescuing it , or partially closing profitable position n retaking it at better levels thus creating buffer for the bleeding positions ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,788
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:40am Jul 23, 2008 4:40am
Quoting piccolo
since we are talking I want to share something to get your comments or criticism.

when I hold a big position in the market with some attack or rescue troops in and the she turns against me.. and I can feel it that the impulse in opposite direction will continue I offload the position to re-enter at a better time, thus booking a temporal loss..

here is an example:
if i am long eurusd from 1.5950 and it goes down to 1.5930 and I feel like its a free fall till 1.5900 at least (even tho I am still euro bull and would not want to take a short), I offload the position and re-enter when it turns back in right direction. Thus this missed out exposure is same as if I would take a short from 1.5930 to 1.5900 and keep my original position open. Thus I actually short it by not being in the market.. hehe.

I don't know if I expressed myself in an understandable way. I hope you all got the idea.
Hi picolo,
yes, aside of the market is a position. Thats what many traders do not realise. It all depend on the timing and dance. When a dancer is motionless it doesn't mean that she is not dancing. Only that she has hit a patch of the dance where that was the required motion. BUT if she stay motionless , when the tempo comes into play then she's considered disorientated. This is similar in the context to trading.
regards.
  • #3,789
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:40am Jul 23, 2008 4:40am
piccolo,

actually, i dont get your point hehe.
from what i can fathom, you are actually booking a loss of 20pips.

if you see the dance going down, then you should have strutted to the floor, be nimble and get out when your predictament is accomplished.

if you still see the market as a bull, then you should have induced some rescue measures, once the wall is well defended, get back to your attacking stance
  • #3,790
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:46am Jul 23, 2008 4:46am
Quoting piccolo
since we are talking I want to share something to get your comments or criticism.

when I hold a big position in the market with some attack or rescue troops in and the she turns against me.. and I can feel it that the impulse in opposite direction will continue I offload the position to re-enter at a better time, thus booking a temporal loss..

here is an example:
if i am long eurusd from 1.5950 and it goes down to 1.5930 and I feel like its a free fall till 1.5900 at least (even tho I am still euro bull and would not want to take a short), I offload the position and re-enter when it turns back in right direction. Thus this missed out exposure is same as if I would take a short from 1.5930 to 1.5900 and keep my original position open. Thus I actually short it by not being in the market.. hehe.

I don't know if I expressed myself in an understandable way. I hope you all got the idea.
Just a few questions. If you are long at .5950 and then believe at .5930 that its headed for .5900, why not reverse positions and go short? Also, when you entered the long at .5950, did you believe the reversal to .5900 was possible?
  • #3,791
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:47am Jul 23, 2008 4:47am
Quoting piccolo
You missed my point. Direction is the same but you just manage your position right.. you exit and re-enter on a better price (thus it is virtually the same as booking a profit on the short trade, except you don't enter a trade).
Hi picolo,
No it s not the same as booking a profit.
If that was true, then all would profit from not trading.

The perspective is in that because you ducked a counter swing against your exposure, you had gained the advantage of levels, But this is only true if such position was re=entered into the fight. From the perspective of the market, it is where you reentered, and thats no advantage as it is there.
So the gain is psycological more than tangible gains.

regards.
  • #3,792
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:50am Jul 23, 2008 4:50am
Quoting fti
So the gain is psycological more than tangible gains.
ahh yes, piccolo, fti has adressed this perfectly, he always does. Its psychological, your actions is actually more reminiscent to what Lusan would call, "I killed my scout" hehe.
  • #3,793
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:00am Jul 23, 2008 5:00am
Quoting rapaduski1
Just a few questions. If you are long at .5950 and then believe at .5930 that its headed for .5900, why not reverse positions and go short? Also, when you entered the long at .5950, did you believe the reversal to .5900 was possible?
Hi,
Thats the mindset thingy.
I don't ever KNOW, for sure what to do.
But I KNOW, when a market behaves a certain way , that I should respond defensively or aggressively.
This is the reason why I have the scouts in, if I am still interested in the trade.
You never know no one actually knows. Like in yesterday's case , I came back after dinner, and he was floating dead in the waters. He was well and safe , when I left him.

You see, in trading correct mindset, will free you from inhbitive subjection thoughts. This in turn allows you to reactiveness to the issues at hand.
You must deal with the situation of NOW, not what ifs and how ifs .
You deal with the P&L of now, and whats within your capacity and whats not.

regards
  • #3,794
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:01am Jul 23, 2008 5:01am
@ fti, if I wouldn't re-enter then there is no point in discussion. I just don't like the concept "sit it out". and I feel it has financial advantage aswell but I will leave it at that. Good news is, it is not fundamentally wrong what I am doing and I can avoid a whip!

@ jest, I don't agree. That is not a kill.. just suspension.

@ rapaduski1, then you would shoot in your foot and unable to move much.
  • #3,795
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:05am Jul 23, 2008 5:05am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Thats the mindset thingy.
I don't ever KNOW, for sure what to do.
But I KNOW, when a market behaves a certain way , that I should respond defensively or aggressively.
This is the reason why I have the scouts in, if I am still interested in the trade.
You never know. Like in yesterday's case , I came back after dinner, and he was floating dead in the waters. He was well and safe , when I left him.

You see, in trading correct mindset, will free you from inhbitive subjection thoughts. This in turn allows you to reactiveness to the issues at hand.
You must deal with the situation of NOW, not what ifs and how ifs .
You deal with the P&L of now, and whats within your capacity and whats not.

regards
Thanks fti...it is difficult to unlearn some things and to let go. There is comfort in structure and being ridgid, but there is also great danger in diluting yourself that the structure is real. TRying to go with the flow.

Rap
  • #3,796
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:14am Jul 23, 2008 5:14am
Quoting piccolo
@ fti, if I wouldn't re-enter then there is no point in discussion. I just don't like the concept "sit it out". and I feel it has financial advantage aswell but I will leave it at that. Good news is, it is not fundamentally wrong what I am doing and I can avoid a whip!

@ jest, I don't agree. That is not a kill.. just suspension.

@ rapaduski1, then you would shoot in your foot and unable to move much.
I've been trading for nearly four years and both feet are full of bullets. I have been in the situation you described many times. A move against my opening position is an opportunity to enter again at a better price. Just need to find the right place or places to enter again.
  • #3,797
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:20am Jul 23, 2008 5:20am
Quoting piccolo
@ fti, if I wouldn't re-enter then there is no point in discussion. I just don't like the concept "sit it out". and I feel it has financial advantage aswell but I will leave it at that. Good news is, it is not fundamentally wrong what I am doing and I can avoid a whip!

@ jest, I don't agree. That is not a kill.. just suspension.

@ rapaduski1, then you would shoot in your foot and unable to move much.
Hi
I think warrent Buffet summarised it very well, when he said
"Excellence, I can aspire to achieve, perfection, thats the God's work."

regards
  • #3,798
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:22am Jul 23, 2008 5:22am
Quoting fti
So it seems in life , whatever that doesn't kill you, only makes you stronger.
thats the motto in my life. " Be Prepared"

regards
So why do you smoke fti? That is certainly not making you stronger.

Also, you are not old. Based on some hints you have said in this thread, I suspect you are about 10 years older than me and I still believe I am young. Even Leigh doesn't believe she is old and she's 3 years older than you!

But I do have faith in my creator and I have an interest in pursuing this further. Thanks for the push in the right direction.

This thread is getting busy now!
  • #3,799
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:28am Jul 23, 2008 5:28am
picollo,

1. You booked a 20point loss.
2. You did not choose to attempt a rescue procedure, if you went a few lots more long at 900, so you re-averaged your position instead and could prly have conducted a clean rescue.

From my point of view, when you went long at 950, you were already wrong about the market direction when it went to 930, instead of rescuing you decided to drop out at 930, essentially, you are merely booking a loss and now awaiting for 900 to go long, if price reaches 920 after you went long again, you merely broke even. Its two different trades alltogether.

regards
jest
  • #3,800
  • Edited 6:08am Jul 23, 2008 5:38am | Edited 6:08am
Quoting Zoran
So why do you smoke fti? That is certainly not making you stronger.

Also, you are not old. Based on some hints you have said in this thread, I suspect you are about 10 years older than me and I still believe I am young. Even Leigh doesn't believe she is old and she's 3 years older than you!

But I do have faith in my creator and I have an interest in pursuing this further. Thanks for the push in the right direction.

This thread is getting busy now!
Hi Zoran,

I AM old. Make no mistake about that. When we were created the creator divided our life in to youth and aged. The division is clear, it is known as "change of life" aka menopause. And this affects all of creation. From the stars to his most prized, mankind.But its not something to be frightful of. This, just milestones in our journey.

Well, why do I smoke?
For me, in life there are little pleasures. Althought I am well awares of the rocks that Sir Baden Powell had described very well in "Rovering to Success".Our canoes will be tested against them in our short journey thru life.

I guess in many ways , if I gave up all my little vices in life, I will miss out on all things that the creator had made in his creation. One of which would be Eve. But if I could stir clear of Lillith then all should be OK.

This reminds me of the story about a man who, being afraid of dying from cholesterol doesn;t eat eggs nor drink milk, only to be killed by a truck........................................................................................
...........................................................................................
...a dairy truck.

regards
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