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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #102,981
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:30pm Jul 22, 2008 9:30pm
I would look for 215.78 as the next target for GJ which is weekly R1. . .
Also, remember 2morrow is triple interest Wed. so the market may drive price thru the roof. . .

Lastly, the $ was very bullish going into the NY close and remains so at this point. . . UJ could see 107.75 by the end of the NY session if oil prices continue to fall which would drive GJ to its weekly target. . .

I would expect price to continue north to the weekly R1 @ 215.75 then retrace back to test support @ the 214 area. If it holds I would suspect we will see price hit the 50% fib from the fall started @ 241 to 192 @ 216.98/220 (on extension) before completing wave 4 of the 5 wave decline. . .

Interesting reading. . .
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...2008072253697/
  • #102,982
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:30pm Jul 22, 2008 9:30pm
Quoting moneymagnet
long right at R1, hmmmm......
So I assume it's a short for you then?
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #102,983
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:34pm Jul 22, 2008 9:34pm
Quoting MykeFX
A good place to short now...???
Very dangerous to short this pair when the $ is bullish. . . Also, I wouldn't expect a retrace until after triple interest Wed. meaning Thursday or Friday may be a sell/TP day.

If u must short I would look to short EU banking on the $/UJ to rise. I would 1st wait for it to test the broken ascending trend line @ 1.5830/60 area then short it for a test of lower support @ 1.57/1.5680 area for over 100 pips. Plus you don't have the 9 pip spread. Better yet UJ looks cheap for at least 40/50 pips on a buy/long. . .

Shorting GJ right now just seems risky unless u are prepared to build shorts for awhile. . .

Food for thought. . .
  • #102,984
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:34pm Jul 22, 2008 9:34pm
G/Y playing the anti breakout just like last week. LOL
  • #102,985
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:36pm Jul 22, 2008 9:36pm
Quoting TexasforEX
long at 214.10 stops below 213.6
Do you set any SL or TP for this trade?
May the pips be with me !!!
  • #102,986
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:37pm Jul 22, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting TexasforEX
So I assume it's a short for you then?
just watching. i want to see PA around 214.50 first, also just not my time of day to trade, would rather trade between 2am -6am est and 8am-11am est. too many false moves sometimes during these hours, IMO
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #102,987
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:37pm Jul 22, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting Vfforexlee
Can i see your charts?

Technically wave 5 already completed and wave a will bring GJ down.
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  • #102,988
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:42pm Jul 22, 2008 9:42pm
Quoting ahlude
Do you set any SL or TP for this trade?
Yeah man. My stops are around 213.6. I really don't have profit zones yet. I need more price action before I can determine those.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #102,989
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:44pm Jul 22, 2008 9:44pm
Quoting PandoraBox
Technically wave 5 already completed and wave a will bring GJ down.
not convinced wave 5 has been completed yet
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #102,990
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:46pm Jul 22, 2008 9:46pm
Quoting PandoraBox
Technically wave 5 already completed and wave a will bring GJ down.
In order for GJ to head down wouldn't 1) the yen must appreciate 2) $ must depreciate or 3) GBP has to decline????

What I see is GBP holding steady and could be bought and $ looks bullish. So what would drive GJ to decline at this point when UJ is trading above the 200 MA which hasn't been done since July 2007????
  • #102,991
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:47pm Jul 22, 2008 9:47pm
GBP ...meetting minute 8-1 hold ..News release today patient people.

GJ maybe down 1 pips
  • #102,992
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:49pm Jul 22, 2008 9:49pm
GBPUSD interesting to trade....go go

Leave this thread ... this week ....
  • #102,993
  • Edited 9:52pm Jul 22, 2008 9:50pm | Edited 9:52pm
Quoting quecee5
In order for GJ to head down wouldn't 1) the yen must appreciate 2) $ must depreciate or 3) GBP has to decline????

What I see is GBP holding steady and could be bought and $ looks bullish. So what would drive GJ to decline at this point when UJ is trading above the 200 MA which hasn't been done since July 2007????
I agree. But two things that might throw a wrench into the works.
1) MPC meeting minutes. 6-3 hold would weaken GBP.
2) Oil inventories tomorrow in US session. Any sign of depletion and oil will shoot up. Weak dollar.

Other than that....who knows.

Edit: Until a confirmation bar appears on 4HR I am not too convinced of this move.
  • #102,994
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:50pm Jul 22, 2008 9:50pm
Quoting PandoraBox
Technically wave 5 already completed and wave a will bring GJ down.
PandoraBox, I'm not that experienced when it comes to EW but if we have a 5 wave impulse shouldn't it be a rule that the top of wave i doesn't cross with the low in wave iv?

I'm actually seeing your waves i-v as the corrective A-B-C from the previous impule I-V with another impule I-V to follow pushing this beast far below 200
  • #102,995
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:51pm Jul 22, 2008 9:51pm
AUD also interested...
  • #102,996
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:52pm Jul 22, 2008 9:52pm
Quoting samclider
AUD also interested...

AUD/USD looks ripe to fall!!

sonic
  • #102,997
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:53pm Jul 22, 2008 9:53pm
Quoting quecee5
In order for GJ to head down wouldn't 1) the yen must appreciate 2) $ must depreciate or 3) GBP has to decline????

What I see is GBP holding steady and could be bought and $ looks bullish. So what would drive GJ to decline at this point when UJ is trading above the 200 MA which hasn't been done since July 2007????
Reason GJ to decline at the moment :

1. Hold rate
2. Rate cut.
3. GJ already overbought.
4. UK under recesion
5. Lilmoe and the group short GJ with a big lot.
  • #102,998
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:54pm Jul 22, 2008 9:54pm
both the gbp/usd and gj are forming inverted hammers on the hourly. interesting
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #102,999
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:58pm Jul 22, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting Rustyyy
I agree. But two things that might throw a wrench into the works.
1) MPC meeting minutes. 6-3 hold would weaken GBP.
2) Oil inventories tomorrow in US session. Any sign of depletion and oil will shoot up. Weak dollar.

Other than that....who knows.

Edit: Until a confirmation bar appears on 4HR I am not too convinced of this move.
Very good points. . .
  • #103,000
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:59pm Jul 22, 2008 9:59pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
AUD/USD looks ripe to fall!!

sonic
This my analyis
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