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Australian Dollar May 'Free Fall'

  • #21
  • Edited 10:24pm Jul 21, 2008 9:32pm | Edited 10:24pm
Quoting hussin naiji
maybe ,time nice for short AUDNZD
You just invented a TL that has no precedent.
  • #22
  • Jul 22, 2008 8:46am Jul 22, 2008 8:46am
Hi,

I am new here.

Just want to mention that for the past 3 Aussie CPI result announcements, the strength of CPI move inverse to the result of the CPI on the days after the result. Would probably be a good idea to trade only after the announcement.
  • #23
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:04am Jul 22, 2008 9:04am
Look like t free fall gona start...

sonic
  • #24
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:28am Jul 22, 2008 9:28am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Look like t free fall gona start...

sonic
Hey Sonic! Where do you see this going to? Best I can tell is .9550 area. What do you think? I'd post a chart but I'm at the office. No MT$ on my computer. Best regards.
  • #25
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:54am Jul 22, 2008 9:54am
It just went down 40 pips today. I need more 70 pips to start having profits
  • #26
  • Jul 22, 2008 6:46pm Jul 22, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting fcon
It just went down 40 pips today. I need more 70 pips to start having profits
guess..u shorted early...

AUDUSD is strong pair..we sure have lot resistamce!!

sonic
  • #27
  • Jul 22, 2008 7:03pm Jul 22, 2008 7:03pm
only a small down for AUD ! or ....
  • #28
  • Edited 10:18pm Jul 22, 2008 9:59pm | Edited 10:18pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=97232

Quote
REVIEW: 22 JULY 2008

Today was all about two big "Ps"---U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser. Paulson and Plosser both
made comments today that sent the U.S. dollar (USD) soaring as
USD bears tried to cover their short positions and USD bulls pounced
on an opportunity to add to their postions.

Paulson said that the U.S. government supports a strong USD, and Plosser
said that the FOMC (of which he is a member) should raise interest rates
"sooner rather than later."

As the USD began to soar, the price of gold and other commodities fell.
The price of oil actually dropped nicely too as risks of Tropical Storm Dolly
hitting important oil-producing areas of the Gulf of Mexico fell substantially.
This sent U.S. stock markets higher and the VIX (the CBOE Volatility Index)
lower. And when you put this all together, it adds up to a weaker Japanese
yen (JPY) and weaker commodity currencies---Canadian dollar (CAD),
Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD).


PREVIEW: 23 JULY 2008

Tomorrow is going to be a real test to see if the U.S. dollar (USD) will be
able to maintain its aggressive bullish posture....

The PFX COT indicator: still BULLISH, but the hourly chart is down almost
100 pips from yesterday's high of 0.9791.

http://www.pfxglobal.com/images/Wade/cot_aud-usd.png

UPDATE:
Their video commentary of the AUD/USD predicts a bounce back up
and it may even approach "parity", according to PFX.
http://www.pfxglobal.com/aud-usd/aud-usd-currency-pair-analysis-weely-video.html
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #29
  • Edited Jul 23, 2008 11:42am Jul 22, 2008 10:10pm | Edited Jul 23, 2008 11:42am
i shorted this fella based on commodity analysis at 9750, i din know she'd offer me better at 9780, so i took it again. Im looking to grow this position up to 2million worth, right now im already short 400k basis @ 9768
  • #30
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:49am Jul 23, 2008 5:49am
Quoting sonicdeejay
guess..u shorted early...

AUDUSD is strong pair..we sure have lot resistamce!!

sonic
yes, but it got there, 0.9621 low

trade closed!!
  • #31
  • Jul 23, 2008 7:53am Jul 23, 2008 7:53am
Quoting mchael
This week's CPI for the last quarter and then the RBA minutes of next month could put traders in a betting position for interest rate cuts. This will be the start of the downward trend:

http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...-31037,00.html

It could be today that money is flowing into Australia and into the ASX as investors could be perceiving some bargain buys. Although buying shares at such a HIGH AUD could also be risky with uncertainty not around if interest rates will rise but if interest rates will fall which will mark the end of this up cycle for the AUD.
I very highly doubt interest rates will be cut in Australia. The highest inflation figures in 16 years has just been reported, and whilst the Reserve Bank seems adamant not to raise interest rates as a quick-fix solution, it looks very likely they wont be able to hold down a rate hike any longer than 6-12 months. It would be very surprising if there was a rate cut.
  • #32
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:40am Jul 23, 2008 11:40am
Quoting fcon
yes, but it got there, 0.9621 low

trade closed!!
why close....
im running on so much free capital in this trade that i could go on scaling in and out of this baby....

Ride on! lol basis 9768....lets wait for the next big retracement and we'll add those shorties... i see quite a pretty key reversal in the daily and weekly forming up
  • #33
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:57am Jul 23, 2008 11:57am
Quoting jest1081
why close....
im running on so much free capital in this trade that i could go on scaling in and out of this baby....

Ride on! lol basis 9768....lets wait for the next big retracement and we'll add those shorties... i see quite a pretty key reversal in the daily and weekly forming up
my 20 pips daily goal was reached.. that's fine
  • #34
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:58am Jul 24, 2008 2:58am
Quoting Toolman
I very highly doubt interest rates will be cut in Australia. The highest inflation figures in 16 years has just been reported, and whilst the Reserve Bank seems adamant not to raise interest rates as a quick-fix solution, it looks very likely they wont be able to hold down a rate hike any longer than 6-12 months. It would be very surprising if there was a rate cut.

With all the factors weighing in hard on the economy things can witch fast. But all it takes to move the FX market is a reverse from a hawkish stance. NZ just showed they need to cut even though inflation is expected to run at 5%.

The Banks have given the effect of almost .5% rate hike for the RBA which is slowing the economy further they the RBA probably expected.

It certainly is interesting times. I expect there will be much volatility in a downward direction
  • #35
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:02am Aug 1, 2008 10:02am
The call for free fall was right on the money. Being published on a major financial website also helps.
  • #36
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:42pm Aug 1, 2008 8:42pm
Quoting fxterrapin
Wedges are usually continuation patterns, however, this is is pointing upward toward the trend... could be a bearish indicator.

http://i37.tinypic.com/2cy2xr5.gif

You posted it few time back...and I must say U made a right analysis!!

sonic
  • #37
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:55pm Aug 1, 2008 8:55pm
In D1 TF, uptrend is obviously brokern.Downtrend for now. I still have my short but I will not be going for additional short immediately as I expect a techincal rebound will be taking place,,,

I will add short when I have another clear signal...of mine...
It can go as low as 0.91xx region or so...

sonic
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.PNG Size: 23 KB
  • #38
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:58pm Aug 1, 2008 10:58pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
You posted it few time back...and I must say U made a right analysis!!

sonic
  • #39
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:21pm Aug 1, 2008 11:21pm
  •  TrevA
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: my brain has a mind of its own | 166 Posts
Quoting Hoef
What do you guys think:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Ycs&refer=home

Obviously interesting for the carry traders out there......
I too have been waiting for a correction on the Aussie and am looking for a long entry point to begin my carry trade.

Any suggestions as to when?

How low can this correction go? I'm seeing 91.50-91.90 as possible entry points....
  • #40
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:39pm Aug 1, 2008 11:39pm
http://img384.imageshack.us/img384/1...lychartke6.jpg
There is only one Certainty in Trading --- There is no Certainty
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