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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #102,281
  • Jul 20, 2008 9:43pm Jul 20, 2008 9:43pm
Quoting quecee5
Same here. . .
From the looks of it price is trading below DP at the moment and I have intraday s1 @ 212.68 and daily s1 @ 212.31.

If it continues to trade and close below both intraday and DP one or both targets are all but a given. Just 30/60 pips away and 100 pips from fridays' high. . .Hmmmmmmm!

Will take more profit off the table when it hits these targets and move SL to +50 once it happens. . .

H4 Stoch already cross the signal - Confirm
H1 now below Gann - Confirm
M30 - Falling Three Method Candle (Continuation Bearish)- Confirm

Now I'm waiting Falling Three method from H1

Bigger TF will be more accurate.
  • #102,282
  • Jul 20, 2008 9:54pm Jul 20, 2008 9:54pm
Quoting ephisi
i would like to see this next 4hr candle as a red one with a close below 4hr 5sma(my worst S/R). if it does then it shoul act as good resistance for a while, on to face the confluence of d pesky 1hr 50ema and 4hr gann
Well my 1hr and 4hr chart are contradicting themselves right now, 1hr hr looks poised for a slight move down and is trading below 1hr gann hi/lo. The 4hr looks to want to move up and is trading slightly above 4hr gann hi/lo which leads me to believe that the down move could possibly be limited. . .

See 1hr chart below. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr chart.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #102,283
  • Jul 20, 2008 9:54pm Jul 20, 2008 9:54pm
If anyone miss the 200 pip range GJ was in, might look at gbp/cad, ranging from 2.0 -2.015 for past week.
  • #102,284
  • Jul 20, 2008 9:58pm Jul 20, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting Eulogy
I think your 11pm co-incides with my 3pm which is usually when I see some movement. I think that's the time (2.5 hours before Euro open) when the Euro Futures start moving as people there start waking up.
You must be on GMT as I'm on CST/EST. . .
  • #102,285
  • Jul 20, 2008 9:59pm Jul 20, 2008 9:59pm
i am setting alerts an going to bed after i see the new 1hr candle .its 3.58am here
  • #102,286
  • Jul 20, 2008 10:00pm Jul 20, 2008 10:00pm
with TP 214.50 ... we'll see ...

trade well ...
  • #102,287
  • Jul 20, 2008 10:01pm Jul 20, 2008 10:01pm
Quoting quecee5
You must be on GMT as I'm on CST/EST. . .
lol not quite

your 11pm is my 3 pm the next day

I'm on GMT +10 in Sydney
  • #102,288
  • Jul 20, 2008 10:02pm Jul 20, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting ephisi
i am setting alerts an going to bed after i see the new 1hr candle .its 3.58am here
Yeah, it's 10 p.m. where I am. . . Will be heading to bed shortly, well within the next hour or so. . . Good night bro -
  • #102,289
  • Jul 20, 2008 10:18pm Jul 20, 2008 10:18pm
IMo - What I see from Volume signal, when trader buy 100 lot , somebody short it with 200 lot. Somebody want push it down.
  • #102,290
  • Jul 20, 2008 10:56pm Jul 20, 2008 10:56pm
Pound drops against Japanese yen

(RTTNews) - The British sterling slipped to 213.14 against its Japanese counterpart in early Asian deals on Monday. Trading took place amid reports that asking prices for homes in Great Britain fell by 1.8% in July when compared to June. According to the Rightmove real estate Web site, the decline followed a 1.2% on month drop for June. Rightmove also said asking prices fell 2.0% below their level of July 2007. As of 8:20 pm ET Sunday, the pound-yen pair was trading at 213.19. The pair closed last Friday's trading at 213.69.
For comments and feedback: contact [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
  • #102,291
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:02pm Jul 20, 2008 11:02pm
Reuters
BOE's Blanchflower says UK economy 'going into recession'
07.20.08, 6:13 PM ET

United Kingdom - By Sumeet Desai
LONDON (Reuters) - The British economy is heading into recession and interest rates should fall to "well below" their current 5 percent, Bank of England policy-maker David Blanchflower was quoted as saying in a newspaper interview.
The arch-dove was quoted as saying in Monday's edition of the Guardian newspaper that the economy would probably shrink for as much as a year and policy-makers had to act now to bring down borrowing costs.
The Bank of England has held interest rates at 5 percent for the last three months after cutting them in April despite signs of a sharply slowing economy because inflation has nearly doubled the central bank's 2 percent target.
Blanchflower was the lone voice calling for a cut in interest rates in May and June. Minutes of this month's meeting will be published on Wednesday, but Blanchflower looks sure to have repeated his call for lower rates.
"I think we are going into recession and we are probably in one right now," Blanchflower told the Guardian. "We will probably have three or four quarters of negative growth, but the risks are to the downside.
"It's not too late to stop it, but we have to act right now. Monetary policy has been far too tight for too long. We can't just sit and do nothing as we have done for too long."
Blanchflower, an academic economist who lives in the United States, told the newspaper that the British economy could be in for a worse ride than even the American economy.
Both countries, he said, were facing the "biggest economic problem since the Great Depression."
He added that "the U.S. has had a big stimulus, but the UK has had none. So the same things that have been happening in the U.S. will happen in the UK, but they could well be worse," he was quoted as saying.
Blanchflower has said house prices in Britain could fall by as much as third. The recent rises in unemployment, he told the newspaper, were just the "tip of the iceberg" as job losses in house building combined with the financial sector and retail.
He said that the Monetary Policy Committee had to consider the medium-term price outlook and that inflation -- which hit a series-high of 3.8 percent in June -- could fall sharply.
"Our job is to focus on inflation in the medium-term so we have to look through the short-term shock from oil and commodity prices," Blanchflower was quoted as saying.
"The economy is now slowing so fast that we run the risk of writing a letter on the low side in the medium-term."
Under the BoE's remit, the governor has to write an explanatory letter to the government when inflation deviates from the 2 percent target by more than a percentage point.
Governor Mervyn King had to write such a letter for only the second time last month when the May inflation data showed a jump to 3.3 percent.
  • #102,292
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:22pm Jul 20, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting belekas
Of course, but keep in mind this might go all the way down to the LTL of this accending 4hr/dayly channel we are in right now. Only then the next leg up.

60 min chart .. bull flag , tested 50 % of move up already,

1-2-3 buy set up on daily chart gives support on 50% fe at 1.9938. This also happens to be bottom of a Keltner channel on the 60 min and just above the 50 sma on the 4 hour.

The 4 hour 50 sma is curving up meaning the trend has changed and is now in an uptrend , and the drop from 2.0150 is just a retracement.

I do have a buy limit order above the top of the flag , and will miss the beginning part of the move , but that is just my trading style , for swing trades I always add 75 pips to the trigger candle to ensure that the trigger and trend reversal are not head fakes. In this instance the trigger is a zigzag pivot just below the Keltner channel shown below.

If the price breaks out of the top of the Ketlner channel on the 60 min and 4 hour at 2.0050 she is going to hit target at 2.0400 , the risk reward on this trade for me is 1:5 .... fairly high.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 259 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #102,293
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:24pm Jul 20, 2008 11:24pm
Quoting malcolmb14
60 min chart .. bull flag , tested 50 % of move up already,

1-2-3 buy set up on daily chart gives support on 50% fe at 1.9938. This also happens to be bottom of a Keltner channel on the 60 min and just above the 50 sma on the 4 hour.

The 4 hour 50 sma is curving up meaning the trend has changed and is now in an uptrend , and the drop from 2.0150 is just a retracement.

I do have a buy limit order above the top of the flag , and will miss the beginning part of the move , but that is just my trading style , for swing trades I always add 75 pips to the trigger candle to ensure that the trigger and trend reversal are not head fakes. In this instance the trigger is a zigzag pivot just below the Keltner channel shown below.

If the price breaks out of the top of the Ketlner channel on the 60 min and 4 hour at 2.0050 she is going to hit target at 2.0400 , the risk reward on this trade for me is 1:5 .... fairly high.

Attachment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 60 min.jpg Size: 209 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #102,294
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:24pm Jul 20, 2008 11:24pm
I smell bear trap and I can see many falling into it, just my opinion.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #102,295
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:28pm Jul 20, 2008 11:28pm
you're one of my favorites trader in this forum ... I like your analysis ... keep it well .... I was long at 213.04 and TP 214.5 ... we'll see ...
  • #102,296
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:30pm Jul 20, 2008 11:30pm
Quoting quecee5
I'm interested in others opinion regarding where they see GJ heading short/medium term based on current TA and PA. . . At the moment it looks as if DP is acting as resistance and capping any further up move for now. . .

Comments welcomed. . .

Looking on daily . .and I cannot believe I am saying this as this does not tie in with my fundamental beliefs ... but if we break 214 zone we are going to 223 zone. This is both R on daily , 61.8 % fib retrace of the move down form 250 ish to 192 , and 138.2 of the fib extension on a 1-2-3 buy formation

Intraday it would be ok to catch some 50 - 100 pip retracements on the downside , but I think this week we may well see a breakout of 214. The daily seems so clear.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.jpg Size: 219 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #102,297
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:32pm Jul 20, 2008 11:32pm
Quoting quecee5
I use forex.com for trading. Use interbank demo for charting. The gap has been closed, interbank opened 1hr later than my broker that's why it's showing that gap not being closed. . .
The gap has not closed on any broker platform I have.

Oanda
IBFX
Tradeview
WHC Trader

What broker do you use that shows the gap closed?
Que
  • #102,298
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:33pm Jul 20, 2008 11:33pm
Quoting PandoraBox
Pound drops against Japanese yen

(RTTNews) - The British sterling slipped to 213.14 against its Japanese counterpart in early Asian deals on Monday. Trading took place amid reports that asking prices for homes in Great Britain fell by 1.8% in July when compared to June. According to the Rightmove real estate Web site, the decline followed a 1.2% on month drop for June. Rightmove also said asking prices fell 2.0% below their level of July 2007. As of 8:20 pm ET Sunday, the pound-yen pair was trading at 213.19. The pair closed last Friday's trading at 213.69.
For comments and feedback: contact [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
old news .. Halifax home prices down 2.4 % june ...2% july
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #102,299
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:36pm Jul 20, 2008 11:36pm
Quoting dogol
you're one of my favorites trader in this forum ... I like your analysis ... keep it well .... I was long at 213.04 and TP 214.5 ... we'll see ...

Thanks
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #102,300
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:39pm Jul 20, 2008 11:39pm
Bank of America reporting tomorrow. .... the bounce in the financial sector has been leading the rally in the dj and s&p. This , coupled with dropping oil prices is what is taking the gbpjpy up right now
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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