I have expections on GBP that we chance see GBP Big Move on Tuesday and wednesday..
beware focus on tuesday...GBP
beware focus on tuesday...GBP
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #102,143
- Jul 20, 2008 12:39am Jul 20, 2008 12:39am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Following The Trade Winds | 8,442 Posts
When I look at the weekly chart, I see a possible Elliot Wave starting with the Nov. 12 candle and ending with the Mar. 17 candle.
The late July – October candles show a sudden price drop followed by a 61.8 retrace. But they’re not necessarily part of an EW.
If this is true, GJ is not on the tail end of a large downward wave. It might even be on a new upward one.
Just a possibility . . .
The late July – October candles show a sudden price drop followed by a 61.8 retrace. But they’re not necessarily part of an EW.
If this is true, GJ is not on the tail end of a large downward wave. It might even be on a new upward one.
Just a possibility . . .
- #102,144
- Jul 20, 2008 5:43am Jul 20, 2008 5:43am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
213.90 not taken out yet. i would suggest to those not already in longs not to rush. big pullbacks are always possible even if 213.90 is taken out; remember 209.30?!?!?!? all our biases were bearish and we did get our good pips but still price was shouting "buy dips!!" we were just too blind. this time we have had a congestion zone, going back to that zone is a possibility out of the book. if we dont get a clear and convincing close above that level, with it conforming as support, we might be back to ranging, and if we do, then it's confirmed: "buy the next fake breakout down". GJ's at critical points now no need to jump in, it could go either way. i made good pips last week, dont' plan on giving them back because i don't want to miss the "Train".
have a nice weekend all
have a nice weekend all
- #102,145
- Jul 20, 2008 6:00am Jul 20, 2008 6:00am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Senior Principal Trader | 2,699 Posts
213.90 not taken out yet. i would suggest to those not already in longs not to rush. big pullbacks are always possible even if 213.90 is taken out; remember 209.30?!?!?!? all our biases were bearish and we did get our good pips but still price was shouting "buy dips!!" we were just too blind. this time we have had a congestion zone, going back to that zone is a possibility out of the book. if we dont get a clear and convincing close above that level, with it conforming as support, we might be back to ranging, and if we do, then it's confirmed: "buy the next fake breakout down". GJ's at critical points now no need to jump in, it could go either way. i made good pips last week, dont' plan on giving them back because i don't want to miss the "Train".
have a nice weekend all
Reference : Tenfore
- #102,146
- Jul 20, 2008 6:06am Jul 20, 2008 6:06am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
- #102,147
- Jul 20, 2008 6:36am Jul 20, 2008 6:36am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2007 | 1,089 Posts
I would like to add just a small point. Your 30M strategy which You introduced in previous posts made for me a good profit and I have to thank to it. As well I want to point that this is great thread, where everybody can learn. I get annoyed only , when somebody start to be agressive to each other. All my congrats and thanks to Karmo, Husseyin, Malcolmb, Godfrey, You and all great people who attach their analyses.
I trade FX live 6 months, before I did demo for one year...but I would like to underline first page of this thread about MM. For me it is a bible of trader. I believe in that statement and I use it recently much more, because I hear around me ( in my country ) a lot of traders of loosing money. When I ask them how much positions they had...the answer is clear. Maybe one day You are lucky but in the long run, they all lost money.
Just an example, one of my friend, from 6K made in 3weeks to 14K with big smile to me...in a few days called me, that in his account is only 600$??? Q was how many open minilots or lots You had? A was 5 lots, full lots in account of 12K on GJ?
Maybe I am wrong, but I believe he did mistake, which he does not want to admit.
Just a small hint to trading.
I hope we all have nice weekend from this thread and ready for nice pips in near future.
Sorry, english is not my first language.
I trade FX live 6 months, before I did demo for one year...but I would like to underline first page of this thread about MM. For me it is a bible of trader. I believe in that statement and I use it recently much more, because I hear around me ( in my country ) a lot of traders of loosing money. When I ask them how much positions they had...the answer is clear. Maybe one day You are lucky but in the long run, they all lost money.
Just an example, one of my friend, from 6K made in 3weeks to 14K with big smile to me...in a few days called me, that in his account is only 600$??? Q was how many open minilots or lots You had? A was 5 lots, full lots in account of 12K on GJ?
Maybe I am wrong, but I believe he did mistake, which he does not want to admit.
Just a small hint to trading.
I hope we all have nice weekend from this thread and ready for nice pips in near future.
Sorry, english is not my first language.
this gapping down is NOT impossible, it's just like i said, same as when we were at 209, when price jumped to 209.3 at the last hours of trading...
but again we still have 10 hours for markets to open. looking at tenfore would be better 2 hours prior.
- #102,149
- Jul 20, 2008 7:04am Jul 20, 2008 7:04am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
there will be a correction, yes. at this moment, 211.65 looks like a good candidate... again (!!!) but let's see where this rally ends. and after this correction there should be at least another nice rally.
but let's see.
but let's see.
213.90 not taken out yet. i would suggest to those not already in longs not to rush. big pullbacks are always possible even if 213.90 is taken out; remember 209.30?!?!?!? all our biases were bearish and we did get our good pips but still price was shouting "buy dips!!" we were just too blind. this time we have had a congestion zone, going back to that zone is a possibility out of the book. if we dont get a clear and convincing close above that level, with it conforming as support, we might be back to ranging, and if we do, then it's confirmed: "buy the next fake breakout down". GJ's at critical points now no need to jump in, it could go either way. i made good pips last week, dont' plan on giving them back because i don't want to miss the "Train".
have a nice weekend all
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #102,150
- Jul 20, 2008 7:26am Jul 20, 2008 7:26am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,510 Posts
When I look at the weekly chart, I see a possible Elliot Wave starting with the Nov. 12 candle and ending with the Mar. 17 candle.
The late July – October candles show a sudden price drop followed by a 61.8 retrace. But they’re not necessarily part of an EW.
If this is true, GJ is not on the tail end of a large downward wave. It might even be on a new upward one.
Just a possibility . . .
Looking at your chart I agree that the EW count looks to be 3 waves down so far from 251 to 192 area. It appears that the 4th wave up is in progress and could end at the 38% fib @ 214.88 or possibly the 50% fib @ 221/222 area. . .
Also, looking at the 4th wave it appears it is in 3 waves which could indicate it's corrective and could imply once complete then a continuation of the down trend could continue. . .
I see a bearish move underway looking at the LTF up to the weekly chart with 215 possibly capping this move up. . . If I see a weekly close above the 200 EMA I will wait for a pull back and enter long for a ride up to 221/222 area otherwise a failure to break and close above weekly 200 EMA I'm entering short for the 5th wave down which could make a new low. . .
Just my take on where GJ might be headed. . .
- #102,151
- Edited 7:44am Jul 20, 2008 7:32am | Edited 7:44am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #102,153
- Jul 20, 2008 10:41am Jul 20, 2008 10:41am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: "As Above So Below" | 6,206 Posts
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
- #102,154
- Jul 20, 2008 10:49am Jul 20, 2008 10:49am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
was looking at the daily chart and this jumped out at me
We may have just started wave 5 of the up move of the bear flag. Yes even if we hit the 61.8 % fib retracement at 223 this could still be a bear flag !!!
If we break 214 there does not seem to be anything holding this back until 221 / 223 zone.
Now this ties in with my 2.0500 target on the gbpusd that I am thinking right now.
The fundamentals do not tie in with this at all ... but I see what my chart is screaming at me. If you ignore all the fundamentals and look purely at what the chart is tell us it is clear to see the picture
There is one possible scenario in which we do not break the 214 level and this becomes a truncated wave 5 .
We may have just started wave 5 of the up move of the bear flag. Yes even if we hit the 61.8 % fib retracement at 223 this could still be a bear flag !!!
If we break 214 there does not seem to be anything holding this back until 221 / 223 zone.
Now this ties in with my 2.0500 target on the gbpusd that I am thinking right now.
The fundamentals do not tie in with this at all ... but I see what my chart is screaming at me. If you ignore all the fundamentals and look purely at what the chart is tell us it is clear to see the picture
There is one possible scenario in which we do not break the 214 level and this becomes a truncated wave 5 .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #102,155
- Jul 20, 2008 11:07am Jul 20, 2008 11:07am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Sniper | 14,770 Posts
Hi guys,
Let's start with naked weekly chart: looks like we are still in wave 4, so it must come to an end.
I see 3 possible areas to short (if we are to be bearish, which should be according to the wave count).
1 area would be from where we are right now since 213.92 high still remains.
If the high is taken out then we should be going to 214.92. 38% fibo level of 251 hi and 192 lo. This would be the second area to short. Also note that the neckline of the shampoo lines up @ that level.
3 area would be Karmos target. 50% fibo of 241 hi and 192 lo gives 216.95.
If all entries fail then the last stand for the bear party would be 219 area.
I have 219.28 as the end of wave 1, and wave 4 should not overlap with that area. If this area gives then bye bye bear.
But, in daily chart, please note that although we had a strong bounce at the TL (I'm still kicking myself for not taking the trade at that moment), price had penetrated. This leads me to believe that next time the price challenges that TL, it should break (hopefully).
Let's see how it plays out.
Let's start with naked weekly chart: looks like we are still in wave 4, so it must come to an end.
I see 3 possible areas to short (if we are to be bearish, which should be according to the wave count).
1 area would be from where we are right now since 213.92 high still remains.
If the high is taken out then we should be going to 214.92. 38% fibo level of 251 hi and 192 lo. This would be the second area to short. Also note that the neckline of the shampoo lines up @ that level.
3 area would be Karmos target. 50% fibo of 241 hi and 192 lo gives 216.95.
If all entries fail then the last stand for the bear party would be 219 area.
I have 219.28 as the end of wave 1, and wave 4 should not overlap with that area. If this area gives then bye bye bear.
But, in daily chart, please note that although we had a strong bounce at the TL (I'm still kicking myself for not taking the trade at that moment), price had penetrated. This leads me to believe that next time the price challenges that TL, it should break (hopefully).
Let's see how it plays out.
- #102,156
- Jul 20, 2008 12:58pm Jul 20, 2008 12:58pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Collector | 9,833 Posts
- #102,157
- Jul 20, 2008 1:03pm Jul 20, 2008 1:03pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Following The Trade Winds | 8,442 Posts
Good stuff today, guys!
Hi Q,
Still remember the GY weekly chart 3 months ago..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=142
But yes, also I thing that we are still in wave 4, but now picture is more cleares..
http://www.doske.com/Charts/ES-08.png
http://www.doske.com/Charts/ES-07.png
- #102,159
- Edited 1:41pm Jul 20, 2008 1:14pm | Edited 1:41pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Collector | 9,833 Posts
Piters, hope u don't mind me asking: from your chart do you expect a fall down to 203/204?? or is there strong support at 210 in your opinion? thanks
IF this is the end of W4, and If we are starting W5 Down.. then.. huuu that''s mean... a lot lot of..[from 186 - 172];
but this is a market, and a lot of political implications
, so everything is possible.. After all those BEN''s speaches, and printed money.. I am not sure.. (that''s why I am scalping 
on 1 min)
- #102,160
- Jul 20, 2008 1:18pm Jul 20, 2008 1:18pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: gone fishing | 5,782 Posts
