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Knowledge is Power

  • #801
  • Jul 18, 2008 6:35am Jul 18, 2008 6:35am
I would Short USD/JPY around here at 106.75

You can see from the last post and comments from Saxo Bank where the Stop should be !

I would have Stops at 107.05 and 107.25

Use your own judgement even if it is a demo account. You need to learn to think for yourself.

Shorting one position at 106.75


Bruce
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  • #802
  • Jul 18, 2008 6:36am Jul 18, 2008 6:36am
UJ 30 yrs!!

Hope it helps!!

sonic
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj30.JPG Size: 44 KB
  • #803
  • Jul 18, 2008 6:51am Jul 18, 2008 6:51am
gona release my v2.2 soon...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post2116600


sonic
  • #804
  • Jul 18, 2008 7:07am Jul 18, 2008 7:07am
Quoting sonicdeejay
UJ 30 yrs!!

Hope it helps!!

sonic
I want everyone to start doing this for themselves if you want to really improve. When I am not around you will need to do it for yourself anyways. I am just teaching you how to fish. Not fish for you.

Oil is UP $1.80 US as I post at 7:46 AM EST. Gold is DOWN $12.80 US.

The Dow Futures are UP 48 and ALL the Europe exchanges are UP !

The PERCEPTION is POSITIVE and the FACTS are Negative !

Citi Bank lost 2.5 Billion and the SPIN is GREAT ! It was not MORE !

Folks they LOST 2.5 Billion ! They will lose more next quarter. This is BAD !

Welcome To The World Of Who Cares !

The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is now 2.57% and the 10 Year is 4.04%

The Spread is now 147 Basis Points !

What does it all mean ? Again WE set the numbers now so WE can see how they change during the day.

The Dow Futures were down 100 or so before the GREAT Citi Bank news of only a loss of 2.5 Billion Dollars.

The US Dollar Index is Up ! EUR/JPY is UP to near 169.00 at 168.95 with the High at 169.19

This brings USD/JPY UP !!!

The EUR/USD is at 1.5833 from a High of 1.5888 This brings USD/JPY UP !

The Dow Futures are UP ! This brings USD/JPY UP !

Will USD/JPY break 107.00 ? Will it break 107.25 ?

No One Knows ? Not I for sure.

Just watch the price action and the reaction to news such as Dow going UP or DOWN which is NEWS in the case of the USD/JPY Currency Pair !!!

Keep in mind what I said yesterday about the time period of 6:00 AM to 8:30 being different as the Main FX Traders out of Chicago are not ALL in as yet !

Watch the period between 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM in a different way. If any of the numbers start going the other way then it can effect each other number like the price of Oil going UP and UP ! Watch if the Dow Futures go more UP or come down some. Is This all clear to all of you ?

Feedback is needed so I know that you understand what I am saying.

As US Bonds are being sold along with Gold some is going into Oil and some into the Dow !

The Yield now at 8:03 AM has GONE to 2.60% so BIG money is leaving US Bonds now and going into CASH and other places including the US Dollar.

Follow the Money Flow !!!

I just shorted one position at 106.81 with Stop (Mental) at 107.05

Remember the Dow tends to open strong and back off after 10:00 AM and then there is Option Expiry at 10:00 AM

Any Questions ? Any Comments ? Any Feedback ?


Bruce

P.S. Keep in mind that this is a Friday as well. Profit Taking and other Factors at Play on a Friday !!!
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  • #805
  • Jul 18, 2008 7:25am Jul 18, 2008 7:25am
I repost it here for US to read and understand !!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_new.gif Today 8:23am
Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 1,268


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Here Are Your Answers !!! Where Are Mine ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by branco http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I think you need to leave more room for doubt in your assumptions... how do you justify EUR/JPY hitting all time highs this week with the DOW at 2 years low?


What was the spread in March when he hit the bottom (for now) in the JPY crosses?


Why, with equities in downtrend, would the japanese be buying the Dow? Don't you think they were doing the carry trade this last 3 months and buying oil (quoted in USD) instead?

In this business you cannot have doubt. You either know or you do not. I talk about the facts only. Researched properly. The EUR/JPY has different characteristics from USD/JPY ! They cannot just be compared one to one. There are other factors. The buying of the Dow or selling of it is done by all so your reference is not valid. The Dow is going UP or DOWN for reasons already explained. The Equities were in a Two Day Uptrend for the last two days so your assumption or question is wrong ! The Carry Trade Comes BACK on by ALL in these circumstances ! Is that clear ?

I hope you see my point. "Knowledge Is Power" Unapplied Knowledge is worth nothing and is no Power.

Come over to my Home Thread, "Knowledge Is Power" and you also will now SEE a 30 Year Chart posted there.

Have A great Trading Day !


Bruce
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  • #806
  • Jul 18, 2008 8:27am Jul 18, 2008 8:27am
Quoting Warren Forex

The PERCEPTION is POSITIVE and the FACTS are Negative !

The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is now 2.57% and the 10 Year is 4.04%
Agree..that is exactly what happening now...Everybody know that it aint over yet!!!

I'd like to understand more about How Bonds works too!!!


sonic
  • #807
  • Jul 18, 2008 9:05am Jul 18, 2008 9:05am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Agree..that is exactly what happening now...Everybody know that it aint over yet!!!

I'd like to understand more about How Bonds works too!!!


sonic
When the 2 Year US Bond is sold or the 10 Year US Bonds, their are others. The price of the US Bonds go down and the Yield goes UP !

Why are the US Bonds being sold ? Where is the Money going ? The Answers will help you trade FX better !!!


Bruce
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  • #808
  • Jul 18, 2008 9:07am Jul 18, 2008 9:07am
Sorry, I replied on the first thread since I don't like to be jumping around threads. I left there the yields on the 30 year treasury note which show a much better fit to the situation in USD/JPY than the Dow (which is down contrary to USD/JPY).

I am not going to continue to post here and I won't post there again unless you have any specific question, I tried to give another vision of the facts to the other people in the thread so that they know more than one opinion.

Facts are you seem to be happy with your trading and I am definitely happy with my longs on GBP/JPY so there is not much sense in two happy guys arguing about this
  • #809
  • Jul 18, 2008 9:37am Jul 18, 2008 9:37am
Quoting branco
Sorry, I replied on the first thread since I don't like to be jumping around threads. I left there the yields on the 30 year treasury note which show a much better fit to the situation in USD/JPY than the Dow (which is down contrary to USD/JPY).

I am not going to continue to post here and I won't post there again unless you have any specific question, I tried to give another vision of the facts to the other people in the thread so that they know more than one opinion.

Facts are you seem to be happy with your trading and I am definitely happy with my longs on GBP/JPY so there is not much sense in two happy guys arguing about this
We never were arguing and we were discussing it. I will go to the other thread to post my question.


Bruce
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  • #810
  • Jul 19, 2008 6:25am Jul 19, 2008 6:25am
Does everyone remember when housing starts and new jobless claims came out last week ?

The first reaction was positive for the US Dollar. I later pointed out that after reflection the numbers were misleading. That gives you an edge if you find out quick enough before the euphoria lifts and reality returns.

Here compliments of the John Maudelin and his free newsletter is the explanation.

9% Growth in Housing or a 4% Loss?

When the news flashed on my screen that housing construction had jumped by 9%, I raised an eyebrow. That did not make sense given other data I was looking at. Immediately the media was full of talking heads and stories about the turnaround in housing and the end of the slowdown. I must admit to being a little confused.
Then we find the rest of the story. Asha Bangalore from Northern Trust actually took the time to read the details. It turns out that New York City had a change in its construction codes, and that affected what is considered a housing start in the Northeast, especially in multi-family construction, which "jumped" 42% because of the code change. If it were not for the change, housing starts nationwide would have fallen by 4%. Because of the code change, housing starts jumped 102% in the Northeast. However, single-family starts nationwide declined 9.3% in June, to an annual rate of 647,000 units. That level of single-family starts is the lowest since January 1991. Look at the following chart from Northern Trust. Does this look like a 9% increase?
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-...001_5F00_3.jpg
More Government Statistical Fun

Each week we see a release of initial unemployment claims. This week initial claims jumped to 366,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. But what are the real underlying numbers? Every Thursday, I get a thorough review of the actual data from John Vogel, going back and looking at trends over the past 8 years in the non-seasonally adjusted data. That can be more interesting.
This week the actual number of initial claims of unemployment was 475,954, compared to 383,839 last year (2007). And the number of actual claims has been trending up. Taking the three first weeks of the current quarter, we are still below the recession years of 2001-3; but the trend is not what you would like to see, and given the decline in consumer spending (see below) it is likely to continue to trend up.
The actual data is very "noisy" and jumps all over the place, hence the use of seasonally adjusted numbers for public consumption. Economy.com thinks the difficulty may be in accounting for auto-related plant shutdowns in the seasonally adjusted number. Vogel speculates that employers are no longer waiting until the end of the quarter to lay personnel off but are doing it at any time in the quarter.
Given the issues, it is likely we will see a rise in the number back toward the 400,000 range (SA) that we saw earlier last month. But just be aware that there can be something really different in the actual numbers.
Below is a graph from economy.com showing where the employment problems are. The majority of the states are seeing payroll employment drop.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-...002_5F00_3.gif
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  • #811
  • Edited 9:22am Jul 19, 2008 9:18am | Edited 9:22am
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2008071953427/

Snippet:

Investors' sentiments had a drastic turn last week, trigging much volatility in the financial markets. Markets were still pessimistic even after Fed and Treasury's plan to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But a couple of factors boosted the confidence later on in the week, including better than expected financial results in the banking sector. Citgroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo reported better than expected quarterly results, raising the hope that the worst in credit market crisis is coming to an end. In addition, oil retreated sharply during the week, giving another boost to dollar and the stock markets. Indeed, crude oil had the biggest weekly decline in more then three years and fell 11% to below $129 a barrel
A few things to note. Firstly, while dollar recovered after making a new record low against Euro and 25 year low against Aussie, the down trend against both currencies are still intact. Secondly, though, note that strength in the greenback is much more apparent against Swissy and yen. Thirdly, note that sterling performed best in carry trade pairs as seen in GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF topping the top movers chart.
More importantly, the impact of such switch in investors sentiments were indeed most seen in the Japanese yen which had a strong rally early last week but then gave up all the gains by the equally sharp selloff afterwards. The corrective nature of GBP/JPY and USD/JPY's prior fall is taken as a signal that prior rebound in yen was just a correction. In other words, such development argues that more upside downside should be seen in the Japanese yen, at least in the near term.
Currency Heat Map Weekly View
USDEURJPYGBPCHFCADAUDUSDEURJPYGBP
Bernanke's semiannual testimony on monetary policy was one of the highlights of the week. Bernanke gave Capitol Hill an assessment of the dual threat of recession and inflation during the testimony noting that "upside risks to the inflation outlook have intensified lately". On the other hand, there is still "significant downside risks to the outlook for growth". The minutes of June 24-25 FOMC meeting were also released last week. The information in the minutes were largely redundant to those from Bernanke's testimony btu one interesting point to note was the committee member's growing discomfort on inflation as "members believed that the next change in the stance of policy could well be an increase in the funds rate,": even though "the timing and magnitude of future policy actions was quite unclear."

Enjoy !!!


Bruce
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  • #812
  • Jul 19, 2008 9:31am Jul 19, 2008 9:31am
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streett...10/111672.html

Bruce
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  • #813
  • Jul 19, 2008 2:22pm Jul 19, 2008 2:22pm
#yiv472243025 h1 a:hover {background-color:#888;color:#fff important;}#yiv472243025 div#emailbody table#itemcontentlist tr td div ul {list-style-type:square;padding-left:1em;}#yiv472243025 div#emailbody table#itemcontentlist tr td div blockquote {padding-left:6px;border-left:6px solid #dadada;margin-left:1em;}#yiv472243025 div#emailbody table#itemcontentlist tr td div li {margin-bottom:1em;margin-left:1em;}#yiv472243025 table#itemcontentlist tr td a:link, #yiv472243025 table#itemcontentlist tr td a:visited, #yiv472243025 table#itemcontentlist tr td a:active {color:#000099;font-weight:bold;text-decoration:none;}#yiv472243025 img {border:none;}Dr. Housing Bubble - How I learned to Love SoCal

IndyMac Bank: Bank Failure, Long Lines, and a Real Home of Genius. Another Reason why IndyMac Bank Failed.
Posted: 18 Jul 2008 11:06 AM CDT
It has been one week since Pasadena based IndyMac Bank was taken over by the FDIC. After the market closed on Friday, the FDIC had assumed control over the troubled institution which was the second largest bank failure in history with assets totaling $32 billion. Initially, since it had been a very long time since a bank of this size had collapsed, many did not know what to expect. Uncertainty was fueled over the weekend when people were unable to access their accounts. On their website, a FDIC page was posted telling customers that the bank was now under full control of the FDIC.
As the institution opened on Monday, uncertainty turned into nervousness. Report after report discussed how people were withdrawing their money from the bank, even those who had insured deposits under the $100,000 FDIC limit. The mass influx of people overwhelmed the resources of the institution and many had to return the subsequent day.
At this point, people started worrying more about simply getting their money out. Bank lines and lists started to make their rounds in various locations:
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/w...guna-woods.jpg
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/w...sion-viejo.jpg
*Source: OC Register Eugene Garcia
In some locations customers waited hours only to be told that they were unable to get their funds out. The heat and uncertainty turned into anger and frustration. Miscommunications occurred where lists were not approved officially from the FDIC so it was uncertain if they would be honored the next day. This did not bode well for many customers some who had been waiting from 1:30AM.
It is clear that the majority of customers from various reports were taking out their money even though the PR machine was fully saying, “this is the strongest bank in the country currently” - if that is the case, why was it taken over on a Friday afternoon without telling customers before hand even giving a slight warning? Yes, against policy rules. Also, I’m sure those with $100,000 plus would have something else to say about that security.
As the week progressed and customers made their way with FDIC cashiers checks out, it turned out that some reports were stating that there may be some delay with other institutions honoring the checks coming from the institution. Clearly this caused more uncertainty with customers who further withdrew more funds. Amazingly some of the other institutions putting extreme holds on some of these checks are only weeks away from a similar position and they too are insured with the FDIC. Is this how they would want their customers to be treated in the future? From what it appears and legitimately so, many of these other institutions are on the lookout for fraud given the circumstances. Unintended consequences.
At one location, the police were called out to settle customers down. Now of course this isn’t exactly the way to manage good PR. You’re threatening arrest on customers who want their money because your bank collapsed? They want their money because it did collapse! I’m surprised that some people say, “well this is irrational panic and people just need to calm down.” Actually, what is irrational is the mortgages this institution got involved in which led to its predictable demise. Today we have a very special Real Home of Genius Award for IndyMac Bank with a home right in its home city of Pasadena. Today we salute you IndyMac Bank with our Real Home of Genius Award.
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  • #814
  • Jul 19, 2008 5:15pm Jul 19, 2008 5:15pm
Wow if the Central Bank keeps getting there way and forcing banks to go bankrupt and then buying them up for pennies on the dollar I guess well have to make room for the North American Union..

just my to cents : )
It's me...
  • #815
  • Jul 19, 2008 8:31pm Jul 19, 2008 8:31pm
Quoting Warren Forex
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2008071953427/

Snippet:

Investors' sentiments had a drastic turn last week, trigging much volatility in the financial markets. Markets were still pessimistic even after Fed and Treasury's plan to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But a couple of factors boosted the confidence later on in the week, including better than expected financial results in the banking sector. Citgroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo reported better than expected quarterly results, raising the hope that the worst in credit market crisis is coming to an end. In addition, oil retreated sharply during the week, giving another boost to dollar and the stock markets. Indeed, crude oil had the biggest weekly decline in more then three years and fell 11% to below $129 a barrel
A few things to note. Firstly, while dollar recovered after making a new record low against Euro and 25 year low against Aussie, the down trend against both currencies are still intact. Secondly, though, note that strength in the greenback is much more apparent against Swissy and yen. Thirdly, note that sterling performed best in carry trade pairs as seen in GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF topping the top movers chart.
More importantly, the impact of such switch in investors sentiments were indeed most seen in the Japanese yen which had a strong rally early last week but then gave up all the gains by the equally sharp selloff afterwards. The corrective nature of GBP/JPY and USD/JPY's prior fall is taken as a signal that prior rebound in yen was just a correction. In other words, such development argues that more upside downside should be seen in the Japanese yen, at least in the near term.
Currency Heat Map Weekly View
USDEURJPYGBPCHFCADAUDUSDEURJPYGBP
Bernanke's semiannual testimony on monetary policy was one of the highlights of the week. Bernanke gave Capitol Hill an assessment of the dual threat of recession and inflation during the testimony noting that "upside risks to the inflation outlook have intensified lately". On the other hand, there is still "significant downside risks to the outlook for growth". The minutes of June 24-25 FOMC meeting were also released last week. The information in the minutes were largely redundant to those from Bernanke's testimony btu one interesting point to note was the committee member's growing discomfort on inflation as "members believed that the next change in the stance of policy could well be an increase in the funds rate,": even though "the timing and magnitude of future policy actions was quite unclear."

Enjoy !!!


Bruce
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ! hm.gif Size: 13 KB


I use heat map. Heat map good show what happening on each time frame period. Thanks you, Mr. Warren.
My english not so good. I soory.
  • #816
  • Jul 20, 2008 3:33am Jul 20, 2008 3:33am
Where can you get HEAT MAP?
THanks!

Quoting ingvardagmar
Attachment

I use heat map. Heat map good show what happening on each time frame period. Thanks you, Mr. Warren.
  • #817
  • Jul 20, 2008 4:22am Jul 20, 2008 4:22am
Quoting ingvardagmar
Attachment

I use heat map. Heat map good show what happening on each time frame period. Thanks you, Mr. Warren.
Your chart makes it easier to read the Heat Map VS the different colors that Action Forex uses. Perhaps you can post your version of the charts of the Heat Map with the Up and Down Hours as you just did in your post.

Thanks for the post and Welcome Aboard our Train to SUCCESS !!!


Bruce
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  • #818
  • Jul 20, 2008 4:24am Jul 20, 2008 4:24am
Quoting naOki
Where can you get HEAT MAP?
THanks!
Here is the link that I use ...

http://www.actionforex.com/technical...2007123134104/


Bruce
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  • #819
  • Jul 20, 2008 4:26am Jul 20, 2008 4:26am
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...2008071853387/

Snippet:

Chart Of The Day: USD/JPY http://www.actionforex.com/images/M_...rintButton.png http://www.actionforex.com/images/M_...mailButton.png Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX Solutions | Jul 18 08 15:23 GMT | Chart Of The Day: USD/JPY

7/18/2008 - USD/JPY - Price action on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart, as shown, has just hit significant resistance near the top of a short-term parallel downtrend channel (in red). This approach of resistance occurs after an impressive run-up from a key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support level. Confirming a possible waning of upward momentum near resistance are oscillators like the displayed Stochastics, which are on the border of emerging down from overbought. In the event of a continued bounce down off resistance, the next support to the downside resides around the 105.50 region. Any true breakout above this resistance, on the other hand, would meet major additional resistance around the 108.50 region.

http://www.actionforex.com/technical...2008071811.gif

James Chen
Chief Technical Analyst
FX Solutions



Bruce
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  • #820
  • Jul 20, 2008 5:06am Jul 20, 2008 5:06am
I just posted on another thread the following. Please watch the video and post your feedback on this thread. Your post will be like your attendance in school to know if you are present or not. It would help me if there was more feedback here rather than myself doing most of the posts. This thread is about interaction.

The pupils can also teach the teacher so do not be shy.

As well can you post reports here in PDF format of your Demo Trades to date so that I can see how each and everyone of you are doing.

Thank you for your cooperation.

My Post:

Your post is very interesting in that you confirm the luck or guess factor.

Try trading this way if you would like better results...

It is called by WWW.INO.COM the "FTP" Method !!!

Fundamentals + Technicals + Perception

Fundamentals also stands for Supply and Demand of the currency pair that you trade.

I will find the great video of FTP and post it here on edit for you. I love PEACE !!!


If you have not viewed the video posted on this thread called "FTP" please do so after reading this post. FUNDAMENTALS get you into your position ahead of most others. Then you use TECHNICALS to get the BEST entry into that currency and also know where everyone sees, Support, Resistance and Pivot Points.

Then we get to PERCEPTION !

Just like in the FTP video of a little less than 7 minutes shows, when the PERCEPTION becomes commonplace, that is when it will be ready to reverse as it just might do shortly over the next few days since the market thinks the banking and brokerage and housing bottom has been reached because Citi Bank only declared losses of 2.5 Billion in the last quarter.

I will do another post on how to take advantage of this knowledge to make money using my method of trading FX which works on my Home Thread, Knowledge Is Power. Enjoy !!!

Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!



Bruce
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