Great Trade!! Pipping up quite nicely!!!!
Matt D
Matt D
- #823
- Feb 8, 2007 11:26am Feb 8, 2007 11:26am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Thanks turbo & Mikhail for your input 
Thanks Matt - yes, currently seeing green pips overall on my three remaining trades so maybe I can lock in some pips tomorrow on one of these.
Kind Regards
Steve
Thanks Matt - yes, currently seeing green pips overall on my three remaining trades so maybe I can lock in some pips tomorrow on one of these.
Kind Regards
Steve
- #824
- Feb 8, 2007 11:34am Feb 8, 2007 11:34am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
Thanks turbo & Mikhail for your input
Thanks Matt - yes, currently seeing green pips overall on my three remaining trades so maybe I can lock in some pips tomorrow on one of these.
Kind Regards
Steve
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #825
- Feb 8, 2007 11:38am Feb 8, 2007 11:38am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
What trades do you still have open bro?
EU has recovered well today, UJ is has retraced a little too much for my liking & UCAD after hitting high of 1.1875 is now back around the 1.1840 area yet again lol.
I'll be entering GU & UCHF again later. GU has bounced off that daily trend line again from October 6th (may go long although it's against the daily candle as it keeps bouncing off that line- also good risk reward - I'll look later).
Will probably go short UCHF later as it's retraced like UJ and if EU continues up, UCHF will head down. A little early to tell yet but I'll see what's happening in 4 hours or so.
Kind Regards
Steve
Thanks turbo & Mikhail for your input
Thanks Matt - yes, currently seeing green pips overall on my three remaining trades so maybe I can lock in some pips tomorrow on one of these.
Kind Regards
Steve
i didn't want to over do it so I only traded USD/JPY. Wasn't sure what the target was on this trade so I closed it at like 60+ pips. Was too busy today to keep an eye on it!!!
Thanks bro! keep it up!
Matt
I'd rather have the boogie man in my closet then the forex monster
I think there was another thread somewhere that said 5% per day was achievable as well.
I think if you could compound on avg 5-10% per month then you would have the found the holy grail! Just looking at your figures shows how!
Most professional money managers take far smaller risks since they usually are managing much larger capital, and large losses would simply be bad publicity (and fleeing clients). I think most risk no more than 2% at any time and some much less than that.
Even with much smaller funds I risk no more than 1% per pair and trade 2% max at anytime. If I lock in profits then I will place more trades keeping my max. Far smaller than what you do. I would look for anywhere between 1-5% per month, so averaging 3% would be ideal for me, which would equate to 40%pa. But to be honest if I beat double the risk-free rate (around 10-12% right now) that would be my minimum goal.
Otherwise what's the point in trading..?
I think if you could compound on avg 5-10% per month then you would have the found the holy grail! Just looking at your figures shows how!
Most professional money managers take far smaller risks since they usually are managing much larger capital, and large losses would simply be bad publicity (and fleeing clients). I think most risk no more than 2% at any time and some much less than that.
Even with much smaller funds I risk no more than 1% per pair and trade 2% max at anytime. If I lock in profits then I will place more trades keeping my max. Far smaller than what you do. I would look for anywhere between 1-5% per month, so averaging 3% would be ideal for me, which would equate to 40%pa. But to be honest if I beat double the risk-free rate (around 10-12% right now) that would be my minimum goal.
Otherwise what's the point in trading..?
OK,
It's been dead at work today due to the weather so been doing some calculations which I would like some comments on please.
We hear a pro trader would be very happy with returns of 30% each year - that equates to just over 2.2% a month average compounded.
What I would like to know is whether we are expecting too much - lets give you some examples.....
Lets start with $1000 & compound each month for 4 years & see what results we get. I am also assuming that we risk the same % of account balance each trade and if balance goes down we trade with lower pip size & up higher pip size - are we being over ambitious or can we actually do it??
5% average per month over 4 years would be $10497
6% $16322
7% $25625
8% $39691
9% $62348
10% $98456
15% $819247
I still believe I can average between 5% and 10% a month and both my backtesting and forward testing so far indicates as much.
Would love to hear your comments - if all we are talking about is sticking to rules, patience & discipline I can do that.
Comments please
Kind Regards
Steve
time to chime in with some more thoughts...(remember steve you told me to butt in!)
1. calendar fixations: i don't think you have a problem with this but be careful not to read too much of the fundies into your trades. also watch out for psyching out of trades if there is a big report on tomorrow. (i used to do that with the NFP and rate decisions when i should of just followed my plan).
if you're a purely technical trader and never looked at a calendar when back-testing then just give it a miss. i always do (as good as FF's is, btw) i always find it a distraction, and hence "noise".
2. 500 pips a month. don't set these targets in stone and pressurize yourself to meet them. it just won't happen. i think you collect these stats from your back-testing but remember never make these passive numbers active while trading. they are nothing more than indicators. sure they have their uses to serve as an expectancy but should be nothing more when trading live.
some months will be less, more, zero or negative and comparing it to the 500 you need to meet your averages might get tough.
as always with my advice, take it or leave it FWIW (probably not much in my case.)
that's enough chiming for now! (i can hear the phews from here!)
:
1. calendar fixations: i don't think you have a problem with this but be careful not to read too much of the fundies into your trades. also watch out for psyching out of trades if there is a big report on tomorrow. (i used to do that with the NFP and rate decisions when i should of just followed my plan).
if you're a purely technical trader and never looked at a calendar when back-testing then just give it a miss. i always do (as good as FF's is, btw
) i always find it a distraction, and hence "noise".2. 500 pips a month. don't set these targets in stone and pressurize yourself to meet them. it just won't happen. i think you collect these stats from your back-testing but remember never make these passive numbers active while trading. they are nothing more than indicators. sure they have their uses to serve as an expectancy but should be nothing more when trading live.
some months will be less, more, zero or negative and comparing it to the 500 you need to meet your averages might get tough.
as always with my advice, take it or leave it FWIW (probably not much in my case.
)that's enough chiming for now! (i can hear the phews from here!)
:
- #830
- Feb 8, 2007 3:16pm Feb 8, 2007 3:16pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
time to chime in with some more thoughts...(remember steve you told me to butt in!)
1. calendar fixations: i don't think you have a problem with this but be careful not to read too much of the fundies into your trades. also watch out for psyching out of trades if there is a big report on tomorrow. (i used to do that with the NFP and rate decisions when i should of just followed my plan).
if you're a purely technical trader and never looked at a calendar when back-testing then just give it a miss. i always do (as good as FF's is, btw
2. 500 pips a month. don't set these targets in stone and pressurize yourself to meet them. it just won't happen. i think you collect these stats from your back-testing but remember never make these passive numbers active while trading. they are nothing more than indicators. sure they have their uses to serve as an expectancy but should be nothing more when trading live.
some months will be less, more, zero or negative and comparing it to the 500 you need to meet your averages might get tough.
as always with my advice, take it or leave it FWIW (probably not much in my case.
that's enough chiming for now! (i can hear the phews from here!)
As you say, all backtesting includes news events so why should I take any notice of them now? Although I still ignore any news events, I am finding myself thinking, 'what if they raise rates', 'what about positive US data' etc. In the end, who cares, it doesn't matter one jot coz if its that important the price will reflect it for days to come and I'll be in that trade.
The target is a yearly one at 6000, which conveniently averages at 500 a month. I've had three months around about or more than 500 so I'm due for a bad one lol. I just like playing around with numbers so you may have to put up with that but so far it hasn't affected my trading decisions.
I still believe 5-10% is achievable purely because you need to maintain iron discipline on losing streaks like these. I'd be surprised if there were that many as stubborn as me - just ask the wife hehe.
Don't worry about chiming in, butting in or anything else you wish to call it as your comments are always well worth reading and reflecting on
Cheers
Steve
- #832
- Feb 8, 2007 4:09pm Feb 8, 2007 4:09pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
OK, three remaining trades have had stop losses tightened - will we see a profit from EU this time tomorrow? It's anyone's guess lol.....
USDJPY long from 120.69 (s/l 120.48 guarantees minus 21 pips)
EURUSD long from 1.2984 (s/l 1.2966 guarantees minus 18 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1847 (s/l 1.1811 guarantees minus 36 pips)
New trades.....
USDCHF short from 1.2457 (s/l 1.2522 guarantees minus 65 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9591 (s/l 1.9532 guarantees minus 59 pips)
Let me explain my reasoning behind the GU long with the attached chart. It was difficult for me to call as I would normally go short on the basis of today's candlestick. However, we have this rising trendline from Oct '06 that the pair constantly bounces off. If it breaks on a daily close it'll drop like a stone but until it does, the trendline wins the day.
Let's see what happens tomorrow lol.
Kind Regards
Steve
USDJPY long from 120.69 (s/l 120.48 guarantees minus 21 pips)
EURUSD long from 1.2984 (s/l 1.2966 guarantees minus 18 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1847 (s/l 1.1811 guarantees minus 36 pips)
New trades.....
USDCHF short from 1.2457 (s/l 1.2522 guarantees minus 65 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9591 (s/l 1.9532 guarantees minus 59 pips)
Let me explain my reasoning behind the GU long with the attached chart. It was difficult for me to call as I would normally go short on the basis of today's candlestick. However, we have this rising trendline from Oct '06 that the pair constantly bounces off. If it breaks on a daily close it'll drop like a stone but until it does, the trendline wins the day.
Let's see what happens tomorrow lol.
Kind Regards
Steve
- #834
- Feb 8, 2007 6:01pm Feb 8, 2007 6:01pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
On the Daily Chart.. GBP/USD
I am watching the Daily to see if we bounce on the Trend Line here as you show, for the upwards move, or if the price will breach the downward trend line shown on my chart.
I have two triangles in yellow on the right side of the chart, the one upwards above the upwards trend line, and the other on the downward.
I would expect the breakout going into the upper triangle versus a downward breach and price breaking below the downward trend line.
Ken
Yes, I favoured the bounce off the long term rising trendline too but we'll have to see. One thing is sure - that trendline keeps rising and GU is squeezed between that & the $2 mark.
Be interesting which one gives way first and I hope to catch most of the ride whichever way it goes.
Kind Regards
Steve
- #835
- Feb 9, 2007 1:43am Feb 9, 2007 1:43am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
What a surprise...........not 
Stopped out of GBPUSD for minus 59 pips making it 19 straight losses - could someone please check if this is a new world record? It was a difficult call and may yet bounce later today to close above that trend line but I'm out of GU until Monday now as per rules.
Currently UJ is plus 75 & EU plus 35 but I'm not taking anyting for granted with the way this has gone recently.
Balance is now the same as it was at the end of December but still staying positive - my time will come.
Net Pip Gain Feb 07: Minus 586 Pips
Cumulative Since Nov 06: Plus 1382 pips
Running A/C Bal Increase: Nov +7.08%, Dec +12.00%, Jan +10.54%, Feb -9.50%
Later peeps
Kind Regards
Steve
Stopped out of GBPUSD for minus 59 pips making it 19 straight losses - could someone please check if this is a new world record? It was a difficult call and may yet bounce later today to close above that trend line but I'm out of GU until Monday now as per rules.
Currently UJ is plus 75 & EU plus 35 but I'm not taking anyting for granted with the way this has gone recently.
Balance is now the same as it was at the end of December but still staying positive - my time will come.
Net Pip Gain Feb 07: Minus 586 Pips
Cumulative Since Nov 06: Plus 1382 pips
Running A/C Bal Increase: Nov +7.08%, Dec +12.00%, Jan +10.54%, Feb -9.50%
Later peeps
Kind Regards
Steve
- #836
- Edited 2:09am Feb 9, 2007 1:53am | Edited 2:09am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Wow! If I'd just ignored that trendline & traded on my candlesticks I'd be up over 100 pips. Also, looking at my charts on UCHF, in backtesting I would have gone long so why did I go short? Afraid of retrace I guess & confidence knocked out of me. Must stay positive & stick with my method - mistakes are allowed and it's just an awful period but we'll come through smiling
Ifs and buts mean nothing here though unfortunately....
Steve
Ifs and buts mean nothing here though unfortunately....
Steve
OK, three remaining trades have had stop losses tightened - will we see a profit from EU this time tomorrow? It's anyone's guess lol.....
USDJPY long from 120.69 (s/l 120.48 guarantees minus 21 pips)
EURUSD long from 1.2984 (s/l 1.2966 guarantees minus 18 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1847 (s/l 1.1811 guarantees minus 36 pips)
New trades.....
USDCHF short from 1.2457 (s/l 1.2522 guarantees minus 65 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9591 (s/l 1.9532 guarantees minus 59 pips)
Let me explain my reasoning behind the GU long with the attached chart. It was difficult for me to call as I would normally go short on the basis of today's candlestick. However, we have this rising trendline from Oct '06 that the pair constantly bounces off. If it breaks on a daily close it'll drop like a stone but until it does, the trendline wins the day.
Let's see what happens tomorrow lol.
Kind Regards
Steve
sorry mate, just curious
- #840
- Feb 9, 2007 6:23am Feb 9, 2007 6:23am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
What a surprise...........not
Stopped out of GBPUSD for minus 59 pips making it 19 straight losses - could someone please check if this is a new world record? It was a difficult call and may yet bounce later today to close above that trend line but I'm out of GU until Monday now as per rules.
Currently UJ is plus 75 & EU plus 35 but I'm not taking anyting for granted with the way this has gone recently.
Balance is now the same as it was at the end of December but still staying positive - my time will come.
Net Pip Gain Feb 07: Minus 586 Pips
Cumulative Since Nov 06: Plus 1382 pips
Running A/C Bal Increase: Nov +7.08%, Dec +12.00%, Jan +10.54%, Feb -9.50%
Later peeps
Kind Regards
Steve
USDCAD stopped out for minus 36 pips.
Will post the numbers later if I can bear it lol.
Two current trades are up 97 pips as I speak & unless UJ reverses on me will be able to lock in a small amount of profit tonight - get the flags out
I'm so annoyed I didn't just trade the candlesticks on GU & UCHF - stupid mistake. From now on I vow never to bother with trend lines etc. Yes, they do bounce of them but they have to be breached sometime and that sometime was today. Instead of bemoaning losses on GU & UCHF if I kept to my plan I would be plus 120 on GU now & plus 40 on UCHF.
Steve you stupid boy lol. OK, I'll be back later with an update.
Kind Regards
Steve