Weekly 80/20 Setups | Page 21 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading Systems or Trading Setups 9 replies

Brainstorming Session: OctaveJay's Weekly n Daily Trade Setups 61 replies

Intraday setups with Weekly TF 30 replies

High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market 6 replies

Current Weekly Price Action Setups 1 reply

Attachments: Weekly 80/20 Setups
Exit Attachments

Weekly 80/20 Setups

  • #401
  • Jul 16, 2008 6:57am Jul 16, 2008 6:57am
I recently talked about "doubling up": To place new orders every week, regardless of the open positions. For example, if you already have a long trade open from the previous week, you would still place a new buy order for the upcoming week. [see post #388]

I think it might be wise to only double up if the open position shows a profit. In other words, I would not add to a losing trade.
  • #402
  • Jul 16, 2008 2:18pm Jul 16, 2008 2:18pm
Math: about doubling up: when you want to double up, your open trade can`t be in much profit, because price has come back close to your entry price and this small profit can turn into a loss very easily anyway.

If I want to double up, I would only want to do so with a positive interest, to balance my pairs and with the trend.


Fj: thank you for sharing this strategy and the effort you put into it. very happy for you for your magnificent results.
you deserve it.
  • #403
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:34pm Jul 16, 2008 11:34pm
Quoting yonnie
Math: about doubling up: when you want to double up, your open trade can`t be in much profit, because price has come back close to your entry price and this small profit can turn into a loss very easily anyway.

If I want to double up, I would only want to do so with a positive interest, to balance my pairs and with the trend.


Fj: thank you for sharing this strategy and the effort you put into it. very happy for you for your magnificent results.
you deserve it.
yonnie: Thanks for your advice. Indeed, that was the case when I doubled up last week (they were just slightly positive). I agree that it should be done when the interest is positive. However, that's not enough because right now I have a trade that keeps sinking into the red and I doubled up on it earlier. This breaks a couple classic trading credos:
1. Never add to a losing position. / Don't try to average down your losers.
2. Don't trade against the trend.

So perhaps I will revise my criteria for doubling up as follows:
1. It must be in the direction of a positive interest rate differential.
2. The trade cannot be deep into the red.
3. It must be in-line with the current trend (as calculated by the 20-week midpoint slope or perhaps just a simple visual trend seen on the daily chart)

Doubling up is quite risky. So I think it should be used with care.
  • #404
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:41pm Jul 17, 2008 7:41pm
This system is currently on a 22-trade win streak in my personal account.

(Closed AUD/JPY twice in two days one short, one long)

Closed Trade #90
05-Jul-08 Short AUD/JPY 102.82 16-Jul-08 101.58 +124

Closed Trade #226
16-Jul-08 Long AUD/JPY 101.58 17-Jul-08 103.40 +182


Closed Trade #75
30-Jun-08 Long GBP/JPY 210.46 17-Jul-08 213.22 +276

Closed Trade #224
15-Jul-08 Long CAD/JPY 104.20 17-Jul-08 106.30 +210

Overall Results:

+55,801 Cumulative Pip Total

148 Winning Trades
53 Losing Trades
73.63% Win Rate

By Category:

Major Crosses:

+8283 Cumulative Pip Total

104 Winning Trades (+144.68 pips/win)
37 Losing Trades (-190.05 pips/loss)
73.76% Win Rate
+58.74 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

AUD/JPY +20
AUD/NZD -208
AUD/USD +713
CAD/JPY +184
CHF/JPY +770
EUR/AUD +538
EUR/CAD +1045
EUR/CHF -192
EUR/GBP +531
EUR/JPY -58
EUR/USD +1558
GBP/CHF +1151
GBP/JPY +366
GBP/USD +636
NZD/USD +470
USD/CAD +288
USD/CHF +736
USD/JPY -184

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#85) 10-Jul-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0085
#88) 11-Jul-08 Short AUD/USD 0.9683
#89) 11-Jul-08 Short NZD/USD 0.7643
#91) 30-Jun-08 Long AUD/NZD 1.2597
#93) 06-Jul-08 Long CHF/JPY 103.99
#94) 04-Jul-08 Long EUR/AUD 1.6296
#95) 06-Jul-08 Long EUR/CAD 1.5984
#97) 07-Jul-08 Short GBP/CHF 2.0379
#215) 13-Jul-08 Short EUR/USD 1.5935
#218) 14-Jul-08 Short GBP/USD 1.9911
#219) 14-Jul-08 Long USD/JPY 105.82
#220) 15-Jul-08 Long USD/CHF 1.0126
#222) 15 Jul-08 Long EUR/CHF 1.6101
#223) 15-Jul-08 Long EUR/JPY 167.74
#225) 15-Jul-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7937
#227) 17-Jul-08 Short AUD/JPY 103.40
#228) 17-Jul-08 Short GBP/JPY 213.22
#229) 17-Jul-08 Short CAD/JPY 106.30

Exotic Crosses:

+28,718 Cumulative Pip Total

34 Winning Trades (+991.50 pips/win)
10 Losing Trades (-499.30 pips/loss)
77.27% Win Rate
+652.68 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

EUR/CZK +9294
EUR/NOK +1082
EUR/PLN +335
USD/DKK +4218
USD/NOK +2399
USD/SGD +267
USD/TWD +4618
USD/ZAR +6505

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#98) 27-Jun-08 Long EUR/CZK 23.877
#99) 08-Jul-08 Short EUR/NOK 8.0501
#212) 20-Jun-08 Long USD/ZAR 7.9407
#216) 13-Jul-08 Long USD/DKK 4.6821
#217) 14-Jul-08 Long USD/SGD 1.3539
#221) 15-Jul-08 Long USD/NOK 5.0485

Metals:

+18,800 Cumulative Pip Total

10 Winning Trades (+5337.30 pips/win)
6 Losing Trades (-5762.17 pips/loss)
62.50% Win Rate
+1175.00 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

XAG/USD +20,398
XAU/USD -1598
I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#213) 27-Jun-08 Short XAG/USD 17.545
#214) 11-Jul-08 Short XAU/USD 948.65
  • #405
  • Jul 18, 2008 9:43pm Jul 18, 2008 9:43pm
I just wanted to make you all aware of a few changes I have planned for my future posting on this diary/thread. Over the last few weeks with my move, I had forced myself to cut back in many areas, such as Zulutrade, and some posting. Not only did I enjoy the break, I found that I was spending more time with my family and less time on the computer. In order to continue that trend, I have decided to make one main post a week, with an update on all the closed trades of the previous week, and updated stats. I will no longer be providing 80/20 levels for the original 10 pairs, as I have posted numerous times on how to calculate those levels yourself. I won't be disappearing completely. I still plan on reading the thread daily, but my posting will be more limited.
I think I have done all I can to prove the validity of this system. I'd like to step back and contribute less. At the same time, I'm hoping others will contribute more, to see how other's may successfully or unsuccessfully try to tweak this system. I'd like to thank some of the more frequent contributers like mathematician for your insights on risk management and the Monte Carlo testing. And thanks to Goodness who has been there from the beginning. RCWSO, I was unaware someone else in my full time career field had FOREX ambitions like myself. Thanks bmp for some excellent guidance. I'm sure I'm forgetting some people.
Now to get the discussion going amongst other people, I'm curious about how everyone is doing. I'd like to hear from all of you.

Regarding THIS system:

Are you (still watching/trading it in demo/trading it live)?
How many pairs are you trading?
Are you trading in both directions or just in the direction of the trend?
Has your account size (declined a lot / declined a little / stayed about the same / grown a little / grown a lot)?
Have you recommended this system to someone else, or are you keeping this as your little secret?
Any other comments about this system?

Thanks, and I'll see you next weekend!
  • #406
  • Jul 19, 2008 2:37am Jul 19, 2008 2:37am
Flyjetz,

Good on you for making that decision. That is awesome and I totally agree about getting away from the computer and spending time with the family. I will say that your system has kept me from staring at a computer screen as much as I did in the past. I truly have been setting and forgetting, Ron Popiel style. That has been awesome. I still trade some other strategies but even with those I do not look nearly as often as I did. I also hope to spend more time with the kids through this system. Great work.

As far as your other questions below I will answer them generically now and more specifically when I get more data. As I mentioned in a previous post, I am using a different money managment strategy. So my results look a bit different than yours only because I am taking profits at different points throughout the trades. Basically by making more than one trade per set up and spreading the risk by different lot sizes and different take profit areas. Almost like using a pyramid. If it continues to prove worthy I will post what I am doing in the future. I don't want to start mixing things up. Bottom line to this is that I AM 100% using the same system with only a variation in money management. So I have NOT changed the Flyjetz system. I am also testing a few other things on a demo account but do not have nearly enough data to show/share any of that. It is simply for entertainment value at this point.

Quote
1. Are you (still watching/trading it in demo/trading it live)?
2. How many pairs are you trading?
3. Are you trading in both directions or just in the direction of the trend?
4. Has your account size (declined a lot / declined a little / stayed about the same / grown a little / grown a lot)?
5. Have you recommended this system to someone else, or are you keeping this as your little secret?
6. Any other comments about this system?
I added numbers to help explain.

1. I am trading live and demo with this system.
2. 18 pairs. That is all my broker has on the type of account I have.
3. The past 3 weeks I have only gone in the direction of the trend.
4. The past 3 weeks my account has grown a fair amount. I am literally trading with pennies right now. But I have been able to add several pennies to the account. No specifics on that. Just that I am impressed with the results.
5. I have not recommended it yet. I will in the future if it continues to prove itself. I don't see why it wont.
6. I have enjoyed this system and look forward to others results and comments. I will post more specific stats and results after several more weeks of my trading. I don't feel that 3 weeks is enough data to share at this time. As mentioned, I don't want to skew Flyjetz results or anyone elses for that matter.

Flyjetz, Great work and thanks for getting me away from the computer screen. My wife and kids appreciate it also. Look forward to the updates and comments.

Enjoy the time with the family. After all, it is about time.
RCWSO
  • #407
  • Jul 21, 2008 12:11pm Jul 21, 2008 12:11pm
Hi FJ and fellow traders,

Unfortunately, I'm not back to trading yet, but I missed FF so I stopped by. I am thrilled to see the great results you are posting, and I wish you continued success.
Regarding this change in the system, it seems to me to contradict what you yourself, FJ, consider in the first post to the the "most important" concept: "trading in the direction of the fundamental trend."
To your question, "Why not collect on the retracement" I answer, because the retracement is against the fundamental trend, so its probability of reaching your 20/80 level is smaller.
IMHO, it is better to increase each of your "trend-wise" positions [according to original rules] than to open these counter-trend positions. Or at least treat them differently, e.g. exit at the 50% level or I dunno what.
I suggest you monitor these countertrend trades for a while [personally I'd do it demo] and see if the RR is worth it. Just my 6pips.
6pack



Quoting Flyjetz
I've made the decision to start trading this system in both directions. I've updated the rules in Post #1.

I'll be posting next week's values soon.
  • #408
  • Edited Jul 22, 2008 12:24am Jul 21, 2008 7:52pm | Edited Jul 22, 2008 12:24am
Quoting Flyjetz
1. Are you (still watching/trading it in demo/trading it live)?
2. How many pairs are you trading?
3. Are you trading in both directions or just in the direction of the trend?
4. Has your account size (declined a lot / declined a little / stayed about the same / grown a little / grown a lot)?
5. Have you recommended this system to someone else, or are you keeping this as your little secret?
6. Any other comments about this system?
1. Yes, I am still trading this system, live. I'm not using a demo account.
2. The number and nature of the pairs I trade has changed. Currently I am trading 9 pairs: a couple majors, a couple comdols, some more popular EUR crosses, and some exotics. I am only trading this on the FOREX, no metals, etc.
3. Yes, I am trading in both directions, although I plan to start recording the trend (at the time of entry) on all my trades, just to keep track of some statistics on this aspect.
4. My account has definitely grown from this system. I am trading this system exclusively, but with some modifications only to money management, as I've posted. I've only been trading this system since June 3 and on a very small account. Nevertheless, OANDA's platform allows me to completely scale the units to fit any account size. In the seven weeks or so since I started trading this system, my account has grown by about 15.8%. I have made 36 trades, so the average trade gives me about a 0.4% return on my account.
5. I have recommended this system to one close FF friend. I'm not sure if he has started working with it yet.
6. Thanks a million! This is the best thing to happen to me since I startedin the forex.
  • #409
  • Jul 21, 2008 8:09pm Jul 21, 2008 8:09pm
Quoting 6pack
I suggest you monitor these countertrend trades for a while [personally I'd do it demo] and see if the RR is worth it. Just my 6pips.
As of today, I've decided to start keeping track of the trend (at the time of entry, as calculated by the 20-week average midpoint slope) for all my trades. This way I can start gathering data and analyzing some statistics on this aspect of the system.

I will not simply record whether the trade was with, or against the trend, but I will record the actual 20-week average midpoint slope value for each trade. This way I will have at a lot more to work with. For example, I could make graphs of the week-to-week slope value. Maybe there are cycles or some other patterns to the trends. Perhaps this could lead to a filter rule, e.g. a weak slope (close to 0) might indicate a trend reversal, so only trade in the direction of the new trend, etc. Who knows what lies in store?
  • #410
  • Jul 26, 2008 2:19pm Jul 26, 2008 2:19pm
19 Trades Closed
14 Winning Trades
5 Losing Trades


Closed Trade #88
11-Jul-08 Short AUD/USD 0.9683 18-Jul-08 0.9707 -24

Closed Trade #223
15-Jul-08 Long EUR/JPY 167.74 18-Jul-08 169.44 +170

Closed Trade #220
15-Jul-08 Long USD/CHF 1.0126 18-Jul-08 1.0223 +97

Closed Trade #219
14-Jul-08 Long USD/JPY 105.82 18-Jul-08 106.91 +109
Closed Trade #213
27-Jun-08 Short XAG/USD 17.545 18-Jul-08 18.205 -6600

Closed Trade #215
13-Jul-08 Short EUR/USD 1.5935 20-Jul-08 1.5834 +101
Closed Trade #222
15-Jul-08 Long EUR/CHF 1.6101 20-Jul-08 1.6204 +103

Closed Trade #93
06-Jul-08 Long CHF/JPY 103.99 21-Jul-08 104.64 +65

Closed Trade #91
30-Jun-08 Long AUD/NZD 1.2597 21-Jul-08 1.2814 +217

Closed Trade #216
13-Jul-08 Long USD/DKK 4.6821 21-Jul-08 4.7121 +300
Closed Trade #89
11-Jul-08 Short NZD/USD 0.7643 21-Jul-08 0.7589 +54
Closed Trade #217
14-Jul-08 Long USD/SGD 1.3539 22-Jul-08 1.3544 +5

Closed Trade #98
27-Jun-08 Long EUR/CZK 23.877 22-Jul-08 23.28 -5970

Closed Trade #221
15-Jul-08 Long USD/NOK 5.0485 22-Jul-08 5.0945 +460

Closed Trade #214

11-Jul-08 Short XAU/USD 948.65 22-Jul-08 953.50 -485
Closed Trade #218

14-Jul-08 Short GBP/USD 1.9911 24-Jul-08 1.9878 +33

Closed Trade #85

10-Jul-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0085 24-Jul-08 1.0133 +48


Closed Trade #212

20-Jun-08 Long USD/ZAR 7.9407 24-Jul-08 7.6883 -2524


Closed Trade #237

21-Jul-08 Short CHF/JPY 104.64 24-Jul-08 103.47 +117
Overall Results:

+42,077 Cumulative Pip Total

162 Winning Trades
58 Losing Trades
73.64% Win Rate

By Category:

Major Crosses:

+9373 Cumulative Pip Total

115 Winning Trades (+140.53 pips/win)
38 Losing Trades (-185.68 pips/loss)
75.16% Win Rate
+61.26 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

AUD/JPY +20
AUD/NZD +9
AUD/USD +689
CAD/JPY +184
CHF/JPY +952
EUR/AUD +538
EUR/CAD +1045
EUR/CHF -89
EUR/GBP +531
EUR/JPY +112
EUR/USD +1659
GBP/CHF +1151
GBP/JPY +366
GBP/USD +669
NZD/USD +524
USD/CAD +336
USD/CHF +833
USD/JPY -75

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#94) 04-Jul-08 Long EUR/AUD 1.6296
#95) 06-Jul-08 Long EUR/CAD 1.5984
#97) 07-Jul-08 Short GBP/CHF 2.0379
#225) 15-Jul-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7937
#227) 17-Jul-08 Short AUD/JPY 103.40
#228) 17-Jul-08 Short GBP/JPY 213.22
#229) 17-Jul-08 Short CAD/JPY 106.30
#230) 18-Jul-08 Long AUD/USD 0.9707
#231) 18-Jul-08 Short EUR/JPY 169.44
#232) 18-Jul-08 Short USD/CHF 1.0223
#233) 18-Jul-08 Short USD/JPY 106.91
#235) 20-Jul-08 Long EUR/USD 1.5834
#236) 20-Jul-08 Short EUR/CHF 1.6204
#238) 21-Jul-08 Short AUD/NZD 1.2814
#240) 21-Jul-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7589
#245) 24-Jul-08 Long GBP/USD 1.9878
#246) 24-Jul-08 Short USD/CAD 1.0133


Exotic Crosses:

+20,989 Cumulative Pip Total

37 Winning Trades (+931.78 pips/win)
12 Losing Trades (-1123.92 pips/loss)
75.51% Win Rate
+428.35 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

EUR/CZK +3324
EUR/NOK +1082
EUR/PLN +335
USD/DKK +4518
USD/NOK +2859
USD/SGD +272
USD/TWD +4618
USD/ZAR +3981

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#99) 08-Jul-08 Short EUR/NOK 8.0501
#239) 21-Jul-08 Short USD/DKK 4.7121
#241) 22-Jul-08 Short USD/SGD 1.3544
#242) 22-Jul-08 Short EUR/CZK 23.280
#243) 22-Jul-08 Short USD/NOK 5.0945
#247) 24-Jul-08 Short USD/ZAR 7.6883

Metals:

+11,715 Cumulative Pip Total

10 Winning Trades (+5337.30 pips/win)
8 Losing Trades (-5207.25 pips/loss)
55.56% Win Rate
+650.83 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

XAG/USD +13,798
XAU/USD -2083

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#234) 18-Jul-08 Long XAG/USD 18.205
#244) 22-Jul-08 Long XAU/USD 953.50
  • #411
  • Jul 27, 2008 7:29am Jul 27, 2008 7:29am
Great results for you Flyjetz once again.

I have had a positive pip week as well for my closed trades. I am in the negative with several open trades currently. With the updated numbers for the week we will see how they pan out.

After 4 solid weeks for myself I have been positive throughout. I have not had to monitor a single trade and have spent very little time on the computer watching. That has been nice. I look forward to another 6-8 weeks of this system to see how it pans out. So far, I am enjoying the entire aspect.

Great work and keep us posted on your results. As I mentioned before, I am only trading with the trend for now. I am looking at using the countertrend trade in the future but I may change some money management for my own style. Again, I will not change anything basic about the system just my own way to manage my funds.

Good luck to all this week.

RCWSO
  • #412
  • Aug 1, 2008 5:11pm Aug 1, 2008 5:11pm
I ended this week with a few closed trades and some positive pips. However, I have several trades still open that are in the negative big time. I also have a couple that are guaranteed losers when I update the trades for next week. Well, that is if they hit the new take profit areas. That is ok though. I am willing to stick it out and see how things play out. Can't have a system that is 100% winners. As long as the losers don't out weigh the winners as far as pips are concerned. So it looks like these may be my first real losing trades with this system after 5 weeks. Again, I have only been trading with the trend.

Flyjetz, just a question or two regarding a bit of strategy. I know that I have a couple of losers locked in. Now, the new 80/20 values would allow me to get back in with the trend this week and potentially take some pips.

Question: Do you suggest opening new trades with the new 80/20 values even though I have some open trades going that will be losers no matter what? Yes, I know I could be adding to a losing position but that may be part of the risk. If/when they bounce back up I will get some positive pips and have some negative in the same pair. Any thoughts about adding another position with the new values since a few changed significantly this past week?

That brings me to another question. What about updating the take profits on all open trades each week AND making a new position (Buy limit or Sell limit order) at the 80/20 values? That would mean that each week you not only update but place new trades. You could potentially end up with more open trades in a given pair. Yes, also more losers, but also more winners maybe. I realize that money management may be an issue as well. Any thoughts?

Thanks for the info and I look forward to the next few weeks to see what happens. I am still hanging on even though I see a few losers. Can't win them all.

Have a great week.

RCWSO
  • #413
  • Aug 3, 2008 12:02pm Aug 3, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting Rcwso
I ended this week with a few closed trades and some positive pips. However, I have several trades still open that are in the negative big time. I also have a couple that are guaranteed losers when I update the trades for next week.
Same situation in my account. I had a decent week when looking at trades closed (I'll post results later), but my open trades have been bloody. I think next week's closed trades will be my first losing week since April.

Quoting Rcwso
Flyjetz, just a question or two regarding a bit of strategy. I know that I have a couple of losers locked in. Now, the new 80/20 values would allow me to get back in with the trend this week and potentially take some pips.

Question: Do you suggest opening new trades with the new 80/20 values even though I have some open trades going that will be losers no matter what? Yes, I know I could be adding to a losing position but that may be part of the risk. If/when they bounce back up I will get some positive pips and have some negative in the same pair. Any thoughts about adding another position with the new values since a few changed significantly this past week?
Mathematician has experimented with this technique. I have not used it in this system, per the strict rules. However, I did "double down" on both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD in my personal account since they were so far outside their norms. I will not be included the results of those "emotional" moves in the results of this system. It is a gamble. It may or may not work.
Quoting Rcwso
That brings me to another question. What about updating the take profits on all open trades each week AND making a new position (Buy limit or Sell limit order) at the 80/20 values? That would mean that each week you not only update but place new trades. You could potentially end up with more open trades in a given pair. Yes, also more losers, but also more winners maybe. I realize that money management may be an issue as well. Any thoughts?
Again, another twist that may work for you. I don't see why it wouldn't, as long as you stayed on top of total exposure per currency. If you try it out, let us know how it goes.
  • #414
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:25pm Aug 3, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting Rcwso
Question: Do you suggest opening new trades with the new 80/20 values even though I have some open trades going that will be losers no matter what? Yes, I know I could be adding to a losing position but that may be part of the risk. If/when they bounce back up I will get some positive pips and have some negative in the same pair. Any thoughts about adding another position with the new values since a few changed significantly this past week?

That brings me to another question. What about updating the take profits on all open trades each week AND making a new position (Buy limit or Sell limit order) at the 80/20 values? That would mean that each week you not only update but place new trades. You could potentially end up with more open trades in a given pair. Yes, also more losers, but also more winners maybe. I realize that money management may be an issue as well. Any thoughts?
Yes, as Fly said, I have experiments a bit with these ideas. I think, in general, it's a bad idea to "double down" (place more orders on an already open trade). I think it should be used sparingly because it is very risky. As of now, these are the rules I use regarding doubling down:

1. Never have more than two open trades on any one currency pair. (In other words, mayb you can add a second order to a position, but never have more than that, i.e. never "triple down" or more.)
2. Only double down if it would be in-line with the 20-week trend (as determined by the slope used in the 80/20 projections).
3. Only double down if it would be in-line with the carry trade interest rate differential.
4. Never add to a big loser.

I have seen the good and the bad of doubling down, and I think the bad has a greater magnitude. In general, it seems that winning trades in this system tend to hit their targets in a relatively short amount of time. On the other hand, a losing trade could remain open for weeks, all the while sinking lower and lower. Imagine exacerbating that by risking more money on the position.
  • #415
  • Aug 3, 2008 2:07pm Aug 3, 2008 2:07pm
Thanks for the info on the "Double Down." I had read the posts about that in the past but did not fully comprehend what you both had meant. Now it makes more sense and I totally agree about opening a new position to a losing trade. I would not do that on any other system so why on this one.

Anyway, I am hoping that my losing trades will come back a bit this week to not make such big losers in the future. Only time will tell. If Flyjetz hasn't had a losing week since April then I am ok with a losing week every once in a while. We will see how it turns out.

Good luck this week.
  • #416
  • Aug 3, 2008 2:30pm Aug 3, 2008 2:30pm
Quoting Rcwso
Thanks for the info on the "Double Down." I had read the posts about that in the past but did not fully comprehend what you both had meant. Now it makes more sense and I totally agree about opening a new position to a losing trade. I would not do that on any other system so why on this one.

Anyway, I am hoping that my losing trades will come back a bit this week to not make such big losers in the future. Only time will tell. If Flyjetz hasn't had a losing week since April then I am ok with a losing week every once in a while. We will see how it turns out.

Good luck this week.
Fourteen winning weeks in a row, to be more precise. As I mentioned, I think that streak will be in jeopardy next week.
  • #417
  • Aug 3, 2008 2:58pm Aug 3, 2008 2:58pm
Flyjetz,

That is impressive. I look forward to getting on the winning streak again. Lets just be patient, keep with the system and get through the week. Like I have read over and over and over again, you have to stick to the system even in the times it is not going your way. I will continue to stick with it and see where it goes. I have confidence in your system.

See you at the end of the week. Good or bad. Hopefully all good.

RCWSO
  • #418
  • Edited 10:18pm Aug 3, 2008 8:28pm | Edited 10:18pm
9 Trades Closed
7 Winning Trades
2 Losing Trades

Closed Trade #94
04-Jul-08 Long EUR/AUD 1.6296 25-Jul-08 1.6412 +116

Closed Trade #227
17-Jul-08 Short AUD/JPY 103.40 27-Jul-08 102.94 +46

Closed Trade #238
21-Jul-08 Short AUD/NZD 1.2814 27-Jul-08 1.2861 -47

Closed Trade #95
06-Jul-08 Long EUR/CAD 1.5984 28-Jul-08 1.6061 +77

Closed Trade #229
17-Jul-08 Short CAD/JPY 106.30 28-Jul-08 105.31 +99

Closed Trade #247
24-Jul-08 Short USD/ZAR 7.6883 29-Jul-08 7.4868 +2015

Closed Trade #231
18-Jul-08 Short EUR/JPY 169.44 29-Jul-08 168.27 +117

Closed Trade #99
08-Jul-08 Short EUR/NOK 8.0501 30-Jul-08 8.0557 -56

Closed Trade #228
17-Jul-08 Short GBP/JPY 213.22 01-Aug-08 212.53 +69



Overall Results:

+44,513 Cumulative Pip Total

169 Winning Trades
60 Losing Trades
73.80% Win Rate

By Category:

Major Crosses:

+9850 Cumulative Pip Total

121 Winning Trades (+137.89 pips/win)
39 Losing Trades (-182.13 pips/loss)
75.63% Win Rate
+61.56 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

AUD/JPY +66
AUD/NZD -38
AUD/USD +689
CAD/JPY +283
CHF/JPY +952
EUR/AUD +654
EUR/CAD +1122
EUR/CHF -89
EUR/GBP +531
EUR/JPY +229
EUR/USD +1659
GBP/CHF +1151
GBP/JPY +435
GBP/USD +669
NZD/USD +524
USD/CAD +336
USD/CHF +833
USD/JPY -75

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#97) 07-Jul-08 Short GBP/CHF 2.0379
#225) 15-Jul-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7937
#230) 18-Jul-08 Long AUD/USD 0.9707
#232) 18-Jul-08 Short USD/CHF 1.0223
#233) 18-Jul-08 Short USD/JPY 106.91
#235) 20-Jul-08 Long EUR/USD 1.5834
#236) 20-Jul-08 Short EUR/CHF 1.6204
#240) 21-Jul-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7589
#245) 24-Jul-08 Long GBP/USD 1.9878
#246) 24-Jul-08 Short USD/CAD 1.0133
#248) 25-Jul-08 Short EUR/AUD 1.6412
#249) 27-Jul-08 Long AUD/JPY 102.94
#250) 27-Jul-08 Long AUD/NZD 1.2861
#251) 28-Jul-08 Short EUR/CAD 1.6061
#252) 28-Jul-08 Long CAD/JPY 105.31
#254) 29-Jul-08 Long EUR/JPY 168.27
#256) 01-Aug-08 Long GBP/JPY 212.53


Exotic Crosses:

+22,948 Cumulative Pip Total

38 Winning Trades (+960.29 pips/win)
13 Losing Trades (-1041.77 pips/loss)
74.51% Win Rate
+449.96 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

EUR/CZK +3324
EUR/NOK +1026
EUR/PLN +335
USD/DKK +4518
USD/NOK +2859
USD/SGD +272
USD/TWD +4618
USD/ZAR +5996

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#239) 21-Jul-08 Short USD/DKK 4.7121
#241) 22-Jul-08 Short USD/SGD 1.3544
#242) 22-Jul-08 Short EUR/CZK 23.280
#243) 22-Jul-08 Short USD/NOK 5.0945
#253) 29-Jul-08 Long USD/ZAR 7.4868
#255) 30-Jul-08 Long EUR/NOK 8.0557

Metals:

+11,715 Cumulative Pip Total

10 Winning Trades (+5337.30 pips/win)
8 Losing Trades (-5207.25 pips/loss)
55.56% Win Rate
+650.83 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

XAG/USD +13,798
XAU/USD -2083

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#234) 18-Jul-08 Long XAG/USD 18.205
#244) 22-Jul-08 Long XAU/USD 953.50
  • #419
  • Aug 4, 2008 9:50pm Aug 4, 2008 9:50pm
After much thought about pair correlation, risk management, and time consumption, I have decided to cut my trading back to ten pairs. From this point forward, I will post the close of all current trades. All future trades will be limited to these ten major crosses:

CHFJPY
EURCHF
EURGBP
EURJPY
EURUSD
GBPCHF
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY

Why the change? Last week's volatile action taught me a lot. First and foremost, the 26 pairs I was/am trading are heavily influenced by the USD. Of the 26 pairs, 13 of them have USD as one of the sides. Compare this to another major like the NZD, which only represented 2 of the 26 pairs. I was heavily short the USD last week, and the USD strength last week was eye-opening, to say the least. The nice thing about the ten pairs I have chosen is that it represents five currencies. Each currency is represented in exactly four pairs. This will make it much easier to keep track of exposure.

Despite the past success of this system with the exotic pairs, I am eliminating them since most of them trade against the USD or the EURO. Plus, exotic currencies can have dramatic moves which is a killer in this system. I'd say, I've been lucky as far as that goes so far.

That's about it for now. I'll keep you posted on how things turn out.
  • #420
  • Aug 4, 2008 10:02pm Aug 4, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting Flyjetz
After much thought about pair correlation, risk management, and time consumption, I have decided to cut my trading back to ten pairs. From this point forward, I will post the close of all current trades. All future trades will be limited to these ten major crosses:

CHFJPY
EURCHF
EURGBP
EURJPY
EURUSD
GBPCHF
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY

Why the change? Last week's volatile action taught me a lot. First and foremost, the 26 pairs I was/am trading are heavily influenced by the USD. Of the 26 pairs, 13 of them have USD as one of the sides. Compare this to another major like the NZD, which only represented 2 of the 26 pairs. I was heavily short the USD last week, and the USD strength last week was eye-opening, to say the least. The nice thing about the ten pairs I have chosen is that it represents five currencies. Each currency is represented in exactly four pairs. This will make it much easier to keep track of exposure.

Despite the past success of this system with the exotic pairs, I am eliminating them since most of them trade against the USD or the EURO. Plus, exotic currencies can have dramatic moves which is a killer in this system. I'd say, I've been lucky as far as that goes so far.

That's about it for now. I'll keep you posted on how things turn out.
Make it Eleven pairs. I am going to add the AUDNZD to my trading as well. Since it doesn't add any additional exposure to the five main currencies, I feel that I can safely add this pair without harming the system. Every other pair I traded has some additional exposure to one of the five main currencies, or the AUD.
0 traders viewing now