Trading Aussie Jacko Style

bro you have to relax first. Opportunities for profits will be plenty. Aussie is going up, so dont worry.

Im in at .9780, and moved already the stop at .9765 (high of .9815-50 pips TSL). so maximum risk is 15 pips. lets see how it goes, hopefully up.

Edit: Ok, stopped out for -15 pips. Waiting for a deeper entry. at .9650. if it gets there. AH will be in place too.

http://sonray.com.au/info/node/785

First Perspective #62

15 July 2008

The Australian dollar is again on its way to loftier regions. As forecast in 2006 at 76 cents, the Australian dollar is expected to achieve parity to the US dollar in this fine year 2008.
The reasons are the same as they were back in 2006;

1. China/Asia economic boom creating an insatiable demand for our commodities.
2. The value of those commodities maintaining a bull trend bias for the same reasons.
3. Reserve Bank of Australia setting rates at very high levels by international standards.
4. Sophisticated financial markets and legal system allows Australia to be seen as a long term quality asset of global portfolios.
5. A long term decline of the US dollar which remains in full swing.

All of the above forces are likely to remain in place for some time. Therefore the Australian dollar can be expected to achieve our constantly forecast targets, including the seemingly more distant potential of a move to US$1.08 in 2009.

~~~~~~~~~~~
See link for more...

I relax, don't you see? (joke)
I went long from 0.9740 and I can wait till the next year, I dont close any long position in this pair till it is in profit, I wish it goes to 0.9650 or so, if it does will be just great!! new longs for long term position

There is very little room to short the AUD. It's almost at a point where the chance of making a profit is far too small to bother. Most of it is being held up by retail investors - mom and pop's and japanese houswives who most likely are'nt looking to closely at the fundamentals but basing their decisions on a 7.25% interest rate and hearing commodities are still booming. They're aren't picking up the devil in the details.

The RBA knows they have raised interests rates to their max this cycle.

You're going to see more bad data out of Australia in coming months with more pressure on the RBA to reduce rates otherwise they risk tipping the country into recession.

You're also going to see the US come out with higher inflation data and the US really needs to start raising rates soon.

- The US share market is almost at a bargaining buying point
- Foreigners are likely to start buying equity in the US
- The Fed starts to raise rates and give strength to the USD, this is an opportune time for the US to start increasing rates as they'll pick up on the value of money flowing back into the US
- higher US interest rates will attract money back into the US money markets which will bring liquidity back into the US financial system.
- A rising dollar will put pressure on commodity prices putting pressure on inflation which the FED is going to have to take action on.

Australia will come out with worsening data.

- Australian banks are having to pay more to source money which is putting the price of credit up which will stop the flow of money in Australia - this is outside the RBA rates. The banks have almost had the effect of two RBA interest rate rises which the FX markets were expecting - they definitley wont come now.
- The RBA will come under pressure to reduce the costs on banks and credit or they risk causing a major drop in property prices which will spiral the economy out of control which will be much harder to stimulate, especially in such tight global money markets. IF they're are not careful we could be back to a 90's style sluggish growth again.
- Employment is stable only because many full time positions have been shifted to part time positions and if consumer spending does not start to increase of it's low's that part time employment will turn to unemployment.
- The Australian Govt is brining in Carbon Credits - effectively a tax on energy use which will have an effect like the GST which caused a drop in growth and greater pressure on household spending. This will put greater pressure on the economy and we could see a rerun of 2001/2002 - this is when the AUD hit it's lowest point in the last cycle.

The last several years of growth and money flow have been on the back of over a Trillion in debt, commodities have boosted the economy but not as much as some thinking - it's been the debt and that debt is now incredibly expensive by world standards and it's hurting households.

All it takes is some larger funds to pull their funds out of Australia and it will tip the AUD fast. Last year in August a fund pulled only a few billion out in a day and the AUD price dropped dramatically. It does'nt take much to move the AUD dramatically down coupled with the current situation would leave many smaller investors carrying big losses.

I suggest trade the AUD with extreme caution.

You meant very little room to long surely? Maybe you could edit that so its not confusing...thanks for your input...Raz

Personally, Im looking at .955 to long

Yeah we are kind of in no-mans land at the mo....have to wait...

yeah I actually realised that after I posted it and wondered if someone would pull me up on it. What I actually meant was there was little room to sell on the ups and buy on the down expecting more ups as has been with the volatile upward nature of the AUD.

The point is there is not much room for profiting and large scope for big losses.

here's more news to support the events that will pressure the AUD: http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...-31037,00.html

While i'm bored watching the E/U, the aussie could have a wave break down, lets see if it makes it down to 9650, which is around the 50 fib.

k,
I am in from 0.9700(38 fib). I got spiked in on that drop down, sl now at 0.9685. Lets see if we can get up any higher...

Miss Raz doesn't speak fundies, all she knows is that when she follows the trend it gets to work and makes sure she can purchase another pair of sassy Jimmy Choo's

Well I do like Jimmy Choo shoes!

Ok my buy at 0.9700 got to 0.9732 so my stop is now at -13, or 0.9687, whats everyone else doing, what a boring week...

Hi Raz

I'm thinking the 50% retracement of the move from 9th to 15th July is about 0.9661, which is close to what looks like new support at about 0.9650. An entry around 0.9650 is what I'm looking at.

Thanks for starting this thread Raz!

TZ

Well posting another chart, see what you think of this...it looks to me like this 4hr channel down is due for a correction, its very steep dont you think?

You may be right about an imminent correction - this level around .9620 is very stubborn and might be an area of consolidation before resumption of the uptrend. My money is still on a dip a little lower to .9650 though - but what the hell do I know Raz - I traded a PB long on Natural Gas yesterday just before it fell a bazillion points!

TZ

So, if we dont crash and go to hell this is my scenario
On my chart the upward channel will hold (yellow crappy arrows) and we will see price go up from here (crappy blue arrow)(preferably without knocking me out first hehe) Once we make a new high we are allowed to break down again out of this channel for a pullback...

I thought you were a price action trader - what is this "crappy arrow" indicator doing on your charts???? Did a Google search and couldn't find any reference to crappy arrows - must be a secret custom indicator developed by an eccentric but brilliant Spaniard imo.

Yes,
extremely exclusive, practically unknown secret trading tool lol...

update 1: exciting stuff stop now at 0.9691, 0.9736 high-45, max loss -9

well raz, good trading should be boring this was not a boring week though, look at the yen pairs, thats where all the fun was. unfortunately not for me.

anyways, my position is clear. I have a buy limit at 0.9650 and an AH at .9765. however, we might not get as deep at 9650; there is a PB down to 9675 on the 4H, im curios if this is the bottom for now.