Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 175 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,481
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:29pm Jul 16, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting lilpip
Been short since just before the begining of yesterdays ny session .
I just can't feel what the market is trying to do now, like theres no pulse to go by.
I hope you got it...almost 5800...then I believe will have another day...still 1D is heavily bull for the dollar...
Me? ...out and reading the paper!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,482
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:30pm Jul 16, 2008 1:30pm
Quoting CHFJunkie
1.8500??

I think it needs at least a year to get there!
Sorry typo 1.5800
Nice that you noticed
  • #3,483
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:36pm Jul 16, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting CHFJunkie
by the way fti, how do you evaluate the value of the usd in the market?
how do you know if it's overvalued or undervalued?
Hi,
I never do , and never will.
I was a pro, and pros do not make intelligent guesses.
I only know price.

You may like to check up with some economist, otherwise you could check it out with the fishmongers, they roughly know the value.

regards
  • #3,484
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:43pm Jul 16, 2008 1:43pm
Quoting luSan
I hope you got it...almost 5800...then I believe will have another day...still 1D is heavily bull for the dollar...
Me? ...out and reading the paper!
Hi lusan ,
Good for you,
I think 02/03 is good enough.
Wouldn't want to squeeze those futires boys too much.

Ah early bird and early worms.
Today, those CME boys sure gets no my nerves.
And they think people cannot see thru their ploy.

Sure did worry CHFJunkie for a while there with the typo,LOL
anyways goodmorning, gotta get some shut eye.
regards
  • #3,485
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:44pm Jul 16, 2008 1:44pm
fti, I think you got me worng

or maybe I couldnt clarify my question or made it a little bit unclear.

I mean a way to know that the eur/usd is overbought from a fundamental point of view.
and here I do not mean by fundamentals , the economic releases , I mean something like the open interest and who is moving the markets and whether their positioning has reached extremes or not, intermarket relation ships and so on.
(I believe they provide nice clues about market movements)
is it safe to enter the current trend or better to wait for a pullback?

just a discussion.

regards
Enter Signature
  • #3,486
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:47pm Jul 16, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting CHFJunkie
fti, I think you got me worng

or maybe I couldnt clarify my question or made it a little bit unclear.

I mean a way to know that the eur/usd is overbought from a fundamental point of view.
and here I do not mean by fundamentals , the economic releases , I mean something like the open interest and who is moving the markets and whether their positioning has reached extremes or not.
is it safe to enter the current trend or better to wait for a pullback?

just a discussion.

regards
Hi,
sorry buddy, we discuss tom,ok.
too tired now, brains switched off just a mom ago.

regards
  • #3,487
  • Jul 16, 2008 2:00pm Jul 16, 2008 2:00pm
ok. discussion delayed

have a good sleep.
Enter Signature
  • #3,488
  • Jul 17, 2008 1:55am Jul 17, 2008 1:55am
Good morning fti!

How do you doin?
Do you have some scouts out?

I'm not sure about the short term trend in USDJPY.
I think we are ranging between 105.50 and 104.50 ...

By the way - some of my favorite music for getting calm after some stressing trading session:

http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=5nVcLw...eature=related
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=T7st1GtN9rI
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=OOL7cw...eature=related
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=p-sr17...eature=related
  • #3,489
  • Jul 17, 2008 1:59am Jul 17, 2008 1:59am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning fti!

How do you doin?
Do you have some scouts out?

I'm not sure about the short term trend in USDJPY.
I think we are ranging between 105.50 and 104.50 ...

By the way - some of my favorite music for getting calm after some stressing trading session:

http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=5nVcLw...eature=related
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=T7st1GtN9rI
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=OOL7cw...eature=related
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=p-sr17...eature=related
Hi,
Long USD
Eurusd 1.5862 ave level 2 attck
Checking your music out
  • #3,490
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:10am Jul 17, 2008 2:10am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Long USD
Eurusd 1.5862 ave level 2 attck
Checking your music out
Wow - seems to be a tough dance so far ...
Hope you'll bring/you brought your troops home.
  • #3,491
  • Edited 2:48am Jul 17, 2008 2:20am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting MaMood
Wow - seems to be a tough dance so far ...
Hope you'll bring/you brought your troops home.
Hi,
After the USD sell off after NY close, seems market has been a collector of the greenbag.
Seems the market is being held for the collection.
So I think big boys may be doing the USD collecting,
USD may be in this mode until they finish , the collecting.
generally, not chasing the market, but can feel underpined usd strength.

Completed level 2 mild attack sequense.
Waiting for time windoe for level 3 attack to initiate.

USD/yen already in 2nd impulse, gotta eyeball that on the Eur before sequense comenceses

Oh, another thingy is that since lunch have been experiencing much sweep swings, mostly false breaks.Evidence of the greenbag collecting.

Notice how the usd buying seems to be sustained in the USD/Yen, I suspect major collectors may be from the rising sun.

regards
  • #3,492
  • Jul 17, 2008 3:17am Jul 17, 2008 3:17am
Quoting fti
Hi,
...

Notice how the usd buying seems to be sustained in the USD/Yen, I suspect major collectors may be from the rising sun.

regards
Thanx for your comments on USDJPY.
Today I'm still not in tune to the dance.
I'm just scalping very small amounts of pips.
But I couldn't really call it a dance so far..

My keywords for today:
Patience, patience and nimbleness.
just to do some real money training and - with highest priority - to preserve my book.
  • #3,493
  • Jul 17, 2008 3:34am Jul 17, 2008 3:34am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Long USD
Eurusd 1.5862 ave level 2 attck
Checking your music out

Oh shit - I should read more carefully.

I didn't got it, but now:
You are long USD and NOT EURUSD.
May be it's not my day ;-)
  • #3,494
  • Jul 17, 2008 3:35am Jul 17, 2008 3:35am
Quoting fti
Hi,
After the USD sell off after NY close, seems market has been a collector of the greenbag.
Seems the market is being held for the collection.
So I think big boys may be doing the USD collecting,
USD may be in this mode until they finish , the collecting.
generally, not chasing the market, but can feel underpined usd strength.

Completed level 2 mild attack sequense.
Waiting for time windoe for level 3 attack to initiate.

USD/yen already in 2nd impulse, gotta eyeball that on the Eur before sequense comenceses

Oh, another thingy is that since lunch have been experiencing much sweep swings, mostly false breaks.Evidence of the greenbag collecting.

Notice how the usd buying seems to be sustained in the USD/Yen, I suspect major collectors may be from the rising sun.

regards
funny how my dance is one sided ... much love to sell the dollars .. time like this i just sit n watch , maybe next time ill half my power n try to tune the dance for the other side ...

wow lusan its very early there in the usa , n u r awake !
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,495
  • Jul 17, 2008 3:54am Jul 17, 2008 3:54am
Quoting maheswara
funny how my dance is one sided ... much love to sell the dollars .. time like this i just sit n watch , maybe next time ill half my power n try to tune the dance for the other side ...

wow lusan its very early there in the usa , n u r awake !
Good morning!
yes, and back to bed...the volatility is to high...I cannot do this type of dance and sleepy...being chasing...that is not good!..

my thoughts about E/U?
1D=short
1H=long
15M=long

So I should be long and patient...still today might be a short day!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,496
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:38am Jul 17, 2008 5:38am
Goodness,

that was alot of information since i last came here! FTI, lusan, Zoran, auxesis, dutchangel and everyone, thank you for the great discussion. I had been glued to my screens, solely trading that i have eluded almost all sort of forum life. I could see everyone here had a good ride from dollar shorts. Congratulations!

@Leigsww,
first of all, welcome back. I've missed you. Oh yes, i still think 1k is under capitalised, heh, so prep your whips, i'm ready to pull down my shorts.

A little update. Over the space of 7 months trading the method (4 months LIVE), it has finally occured to me that you really need is one thing, obedience. Obey the market. You dont need talent and you dont need luck. Be a gentleman and lend her an ear when she grumbles, and you'll be rewarded. hehe.

Thanks to fti, lusan, zoran, leighsww (her spreadsheets included), auxesis, dutchangel for emailing me the tunnel and the rest (whom i failed to mention) for sharing & discussing, it has allowed me to evolve, i owe it all to you guys. Not perfect but im getting the hang of it, some small losses, some decent rescues and some decent snowballs (balls of granite not steel yet).

i've saved almost all of fti's earlier teachings in a word file, reconstructed them into chapters, its still growing though and have been busy reading them a few times over. The amount of information like trading psychology, mindset and AOW strategies, skews, MM, capitalisation etc etc contained in it is astounding, you can make a book out of this thread fti.

im finding it hard to concentrate on other matters lately other than trading and of course some squabbles with the broker, kept me busy too. Thanks again guys and esp fti.

Wishing all
good health and good trading,

cheers,
jest
  • #3,497
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:43am Jul 17, 2008 5:43am
Quoting fti
Hi,
anyone notice how orderly the usd rise is?
some big big boys are buying the greenbag and holding down the dollar to buy.
Sorry, he can get my USD at 3:30 NY afternoon, no sooner, LOL
and at much higher levels, I hope.
I may give them some EURUSD @ 1.8500, ok?

Yeah and maybe push it pass1.8670 that would snook me to give him my USD.
Given the E/U 5min (&1 min) chart, it seems (at least to me),
that there are big boys on both sides today, however bears
seem to be bigger
  • #3,498
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:17am Jul 17, 2008 6:17am
Quoting jest1081

A little update. Over the space of 7 months trading the method (4 months LIVE), it has finally occured to me that you really need is one thing, obedience. Obey the market. You dont need talent and you dont need luck. Be a gentleman and lend her an ear when she grumbles, and you'll be rewarded. hehe.

cheers,
jest
Hi Jest

Good to see you here again and even better to hear that you doing so well. You right about the obedience thingy and to be good at that you need a lot of discipline and patience sometimes.

Keep up good trading
DutchAngel
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #3,499
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:46am Jul 17, 2008 6:46am
Hi, Will everybody shout break at the same time.
OK 1. 2. 3

Oh my god, its gonna be along long night.
  • #3,500
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:55am Jul 17, 2008 6:55am
Quoting fti
Hi, Will everybody shout break at the same time.
OK 1. 2. 3

Oh my god, its gonna be along long night.
seems, that someone shouted retraceee instead ...
47 traders viewing now