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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,461
  • Edited 10:28am Jul 16, 2008 9:38am | Edited 10:28am
Quoting joypips
hello fti and everyone

fti thankyou for music, it is appreciated please don't stop
today i see the cross pairs having all the action eg. gbp/jpy
i remember earlier in thread you talking about cross pairs tearing beware, but with so much learning i have forgotten exactly. please could you remind me.

thankyou again

joy
Hi ,
Sorry Joy, missed this question earlier.

when major spots do not move in sync , it is normally due to crosses driven by underlying fundamntals, When this happens, NORMALLY the greenbag is not in trend mode. you have to get some experience in watching , the kingdom characteristics to know how to indentify , which is which.
When there are influencial fundementals, as in now they move by their own momentum. (tear from sync activities)
Eg this week, the USD/Yen is tearing from mainstream sync , due to that the swift drop in oil prices is prompting hedgers in Japan who bought USD for oil stockpiles unwinding their hedge.
The underlying dangers on the Japan industry is relief , therefore some unwinding, and the tear happens.

regards
  • #3,462
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:40am Jul 16, 2008 9:40am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Eur/usd 1.5865 support is very hard to crack.
and still attempting, outlook now very uncertain.
Best to be aside.
Stop order attempts may help, suspect if crack may be "fast markets"

other kingdom patterns do not support crack possibilities, for now.
stay vigilant.

regards

How are you doing? Lusan
First session a loser_why?_wife_no comment
second session_much better_captured pips with very aggresive entries and exit_I do not like it....feel that the market is waiting for something...no conviction...so I went out until just now_maybe pushing to 5850_who knows?

Ben still talking...people seem to be waiting...all indication that today is dollar bull...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,463
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:47am Jul 16, 2008 9:47am
Quoting luSan
First session a loser_why?_wife_no comment
second session_much better_captured pips with very aggresive entries and exit_I do not like it....feel that the market is waiting for something...no conviction...so I went out until just now_maybe pushing to 5850_who knows?

Ben still talking...people seem to be waiting...all indication that today is dollar bull...
Fti's 5865 is breached. I had another level at your 5850. A breach here opens more below...Oil inventories in US showed a build rather than decline. Oil is falling now, too
  • #3,464
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:55am Jul 16, 2008 9:55am
Quoting luSan
First session a loser_why?_wife_no comment
second session_much better_captured pips with very aggresive entries and exit_I do not like it....feel that the market is waiting for something...no conviction...so I went out until just now_maybe pushing to 5850_who knows?

Ben still talking...people seem to be waiting...all indication that today is dollar bull...
any idea wat ben is sayin ? driving dollar up , looks like major retracement begins (yen view , not sure bout euro n gbp) hows ur side ...
cute baby btw , ur child ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,465
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:57am Jul 16, 2008 9:57am
Quoting maheswara
any idea wat ben is sayin ? driving dollar up , looks like major retracement begins (yen view , not sure bout euro n gbp) hows ur side ...
cute baby btw , ur child ?
None...i do not care much...but inflation is higher than 17 years...I just collected 30 pips or so...

Nope, the son of my niece...really cute...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,466
  • Edited 10:58am Jul 16, 2008 10:02am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting luSan
None...i do not care much...but inflation is higher than 17 years...I just collected 30 pips or so...
and another 10...

Actually a different way of collecting pips..a more aggresive one...almost all my first session losses are recovered...

next level about 5800...then I think that is all...so it is not worthy for me...I am done for the day...

General comments:
I am noticing how easy is my mindset affected by non-trading events...No peace of mind implies bad trading....Have you guys observed the same?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,467
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:02am Jul 16, 2008 10:02am
Quoting maheswara
any idea wat ben is sayin ? driving dollar up , looks like major retracement begins (yen view , not sure bout euro n gbp) hows ur side ...
cute baby btw , ur child ?
I am listening to Ben right now...not saying anything different with the House from yesterday with the Senate. Move corresponds with large oil inventory build in US...and for the Euro, on fti's breach of 5865. Fti, does this look like a stop sweep kind of move? Anyway, nice move for good pip capture.

Rap
  • #3,468
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:08am Jul 16, 2008 10:08am
Quoting rapaduski1
I am listening to Ben right now...not saying anything different with the House from yesterday with the Senate. Move corresponds with large oil inventory build in US...and for the Euro, on fti's breach of 5865. Fti, does this look like a stop sweep kind of move? Anyway, nice move for good pip capture.

Rap
ah okay ...

Quoting luSan
and another 10...

Actually a different way of collecting pips..a more aggresive one...almost all my first session losses are recovered...

next level about 5800...then I think that is all
ah i think im done for today , gotta pick up my bro from the airport soon , cant do rescue mission if impulses hit me ...

good nite all , morning to US guys
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,469
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:30am Jul 16, 2008 10:30am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Ahh, FF was down for me for a while.

... ...
I keep getting this , is it just me?

Warning: Memcache::connect() [memcache.connect]: Can't connect to xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx:xxxxx, Connection timed out (110) in /includes/class_datastore.php on line 307

Fatal error: Unable to connect to memcache server in /includes/class_datastore.php on line 309
Hi, FTI. It happened to me also. Something wrong with the FF server, or maybe too many people visited the server at the same time.

The internet connection during evening and night(8-11pm) normally is not as good as early morning or late night, because more people surf internet.

Regards

David
  • #3,470
  • Edited 11:22am Jul 16, 2008 10:47am | Edited 11:22am
Hi All
was a good USD bull ride, huh.
Very orderly USD buying.
maybe more to come , stay peeled for CME shock, if it comes.

That 's after lunch and i think the luch will be short,
otherwise indigestion, LOL.
I'm having coffee, just to be alert.

one more thingy, if eurusd below 1.5865 by cme closing range.
be watch ful for swarm of moc orders to buy usd.
  • #3,471
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:50am Jul 16, 2008 11:50am
I've been having a hard time getting a feel for the e/u since ny afternoon session yesterday.
My scout is out @ 5826 as I try to find a rythem.
  • #3,472
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:56am Jul 16, 2008 11:56am
Quoting lilpip
I've been having a hard time getting a feel for the e/u since ny afternoon session yesterday.
My scout is out @ 5826 as I try to find a rythem.
1D, 1H and 15M are point south...next level down at 5800...so short is a good idea...my toughts
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,473
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:58am Jul 16, 2008 11:58am
Quoting lilpip
I've been having a hard time getting a feel for the e/u since ny afternoon session yesterday.
My scout is out @ 5826 as I try to find a rythem.
Hi lilpip,
the direction of the USD is known.
What we cannot tell is , how they wanna pan out.
feels like the game is at the end day sessions.

The market is stabising for USD bear bailout it seems, mild nudge and slowly building up usd seems good strategy for now, and no chasing for USd in the market please.
Let them do it at the end of day.
thats my general feel, its going to try to make usd holders tired and to give them away. I think rap is collecting USD from non patient holders on the thread.
regards
  • #3,474
  • Jul 16, 2008 12:20pm Jul 16, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting fti
Hi lilpip,
the direction of the USD is known.
What we cannot tell is , how they wanna pan out.
feels like the game is at the end day sessions.

The market is stabising for USD bear bailout it seems, mild nudge and slowly building up usd seems good strategy for now, and no chasing for USd in the market please.
Let them do it at the end of day.
thats my general feel, its going to try to make usd holders tired and to give them away. I think rap is collecting USD from non patient holders on the thread. ,
regards
did you mean direction of usd is long ? ... so be it ...... good for me
glad to hear someone said that, make me fell confident now ,
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #3,475
  • Jul 16, 2008 12:33pm Jul 16, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting luSan
1D, 1H and 15M are point south...next level down at 5800...so short is a good idea...my toughts
Been short since just before the begining of yesterdays ny session .
I just can't feel what the market is trying to do now, like theres no pulse to go by.
  • #3,476
  • Jul 16, 2008 12:34pm Jul 16, 2008 12:34pm
Hi,
anyone notice how orderly the usd rise is?
some big big boys are buying the greenbag and holding down the dollar to buy.
Sorry, he can get my USD at 3:30 NY afternoon, no sooner, LOL
and at much higher levels, I hope.
I may give them some EURUSD @ 1.8500, ok?

Yeah and maybe push it pass1.8670 that would snook me to give him my USD.
  • #3,477
  • Jul 16, 2008 12:39pm Jul 16, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting fti
Hi lilpip,
the direction of the USD is known.
What we cannot tell is , how they wanna pan out.
feels like the game is at the end day sessions.

The market is stabising for USD bear bailout it seems, mild nudge and slowly building up usd seems good strategy for now, and no chasing for USd in the market please.
Let them do it at the end of day.
thats my general feel, its going to try to make usd holders tired and to give them away. I think rap is collecting USD from non patient holders on the thread.
regards
Fti...thanks for helping me out!

Rap
  • #3,478
  • Jul 16, 2008 12:54pm Jul 16, 2008 12:54pm
Traded as a dollar bull today, but waiting to see if the bulls can gain some footing here. 5865/5855 may come into play again as the market unfolds. I have entered a wait trade until I feel the flow again...

Rap
  • #3,479
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:13pm Jul 16, 2008 1:13pm
Quoting fti
Hi,
anyone notice how orderly the usd rise is?
some big big boys are buying the greenbag and holding down the dollar to buy.
Sorry, he can get my USD at 3:30 NY afternoon, no sooner, LOL
and at much higher levels, I hope.
I may give them some EURUSD @ 1.8500, ok?

Yeah and maybe push it pass1.8670 that would snook me to give him my USD.
1.8500??

I think it needs at least a year to get there!
Enter Signature
  • #3,480
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:23pm Jul 16, 2008 1:23pm
by the way fti, how do you evaluate the value of the usd in the market?
how do you know if it's overvalued or undervalued?
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