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GBP Rate Decision

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 8, 2007 3:05am Feb 8, 2007 3:05am
Last month, the "Shadow MPC" voted 5-4 in favor of a hike. The MPC on that day so decided for a hike indeed. Today, said "shadow MPC" voted for unchange.

Quote
BOE RATE DECISION AT 7:00 ET: NOTE THAT THE SHADOW MPC VOTED 5-4 TO LEAVE RATES UNCHANGED AT TODAY'S MEETING (LAST MONTH THE SHADOW MPC VOTED FOR A RATE HIKE WHEN THE MPC SURPRISED MARKETS WITH A RATE HIKE)

Come 7:00AM est, the decision will be heard. I sure wish it would be another hike!
  • #2
  • Feb 8, 2007 3:13am Feb 8, 2007 3:13am
Surprised to see so much action prior to the announcement. She's sitting pretty @ 1.9660... I think 30 pips to 1.9690 over the next 3 hours is likely. Long it is.

MM
  • #3
  • Feb 8, 2007 4:34am Feb 8, 2007 4:34am
last time cable went up before BOE rate release
today london open was buying dollare and sellign currencies even GBP that explain traders don't expect another hike today

me 2 becasue i can' trade it
BK please wish it to be next month
  • #4
  • Feb 8, 2007 4:39am Feb 8, 2007 4:39am
You know somebody is bleeding info to all the players with the deep pockets. GOD!!! I love this game!!!!

MM

Oh yeah 30 pips as promised (and it only took 1 hour)
  • #5
  • Feb 8, 2007 4:51am Feb 8, 2007 4:51am
From the BBC website:
Rates expected to stay the same but chance of a surprise.

Article is here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6339477.stm
  • #6
  • Feb 8, 2007 4:54am Feb 8, 2007 4:54am

If no hike happen, what would happen? GBP will go down but how much, and it will retrace fast or not, any info about this would apprecaited, thanks

  • #7
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:13am Feb 8, 2007 5:13am
Quoting mohsen57

If no hike happen, what would happen? GBP will go down but how much, and it will retrace fast or not, any info about this would apprecaited, thanks

My strategy for a no-hike is watch a likely down move through the following expected supports 9660 / 9634 / 9610.

I don't see potential to test 9600 (almost 70 pips move downwards) and there is this strong trend line acting as support for some time now (9710-9734 by now)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5488

Case hike, I'll jump in the bandwagon.
  • #8
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:14am Feb 8, 2007 5:14am
Quoting khaldonm
last time cable went up before BOE rate release
today london open was buying dollare and sellign currencies even GBP that explain traders don't expect another hike today

me 2 becasue i can' trade it
BK please wish it to be next month
Last time a rate hike was delivered as expected, GBPUSD dropped instead of rise. Only surprise rate hikes can send GBPUSD up. And a surprise no hike to send it down strong and hard.
  • #9
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:19am Feb 8, 2007 5:19am
Quoting BurgerKing
Last time a rate hike was delivered as expected, GBPUSD dropped instead of rise. Only surprise rate hikes can send GBPUSD up. And a surprise no hike to send it down strong and hard.
no-hike is no longer a surprise... Or you mean, in general?
  • #10
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:31am Feb 8, 2007 5:31am
what do you say about this,
few sec before news release go short with 10 pips SL and no tp and set a buy stop 15 pip above, in case of hike if hike happen your short will stopped out if not happened you are in free ride going short any idea?
  • #11
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:44am Feb 8, 2007 5:44am
Quoting mohsen57
what do you say about this,
few sec before news release go short with 10 pips SL and no tp and set a buy stop 15 pip above, in case of hike if hike happen your short will stopped out if not happened you are in free ride going short any idea?
I liked that...
  • #12
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:57am Feb 8, 2007 5:57am
depnds on your broker i guess. I cant imagine a 10 pip sl will be honored if price were to gap over it on a surprise hike. You may be filled 30-70 pips away if we have a hike, and if you place sl too long before the announcement, you may get stopped out before. In order to get a free ride, you should have already been short from yesterday and booked profit on majority leaving little risk on table at a good price. I dont believe in any free rides just before news time.

Just an opinion.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #13
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:03am Feb 8, 2007 6:03am
Quoting mohsen57
what do you say about this,
few sec before news release go short with 10 pips SL and no tp and set a buy stop 15 pip above, in case of hike if hike happen your short will stopped out if not happened you are in free ride going short any idea?
Just traded it. Decided not to let it for free falling. TPed at +20 pip
  • #14
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:06am Feb 8, 2007 6:06am
Any thoughts on the EUR Rate announcement? if they hike, is it already priced in? Sounds like it's expected either feb or march..
  • #15
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:13am Feb 8, 2007 6:13am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
What was the votes like?
  • #16
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:14am Feb 8, 2007 6:14am
whats going on in future ? downward more?
  • #17
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:24am Feb 8, 2007 6:24am
ECB are not meant to hike this month. So "no change"
Forex rules
  • #18
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:29am Feb 8, 2007 6:29am
Quoting dsb104
ECB are not meant to hike this month. So "no change"
Expecting a downward move in this case?

I mean, for EUR
  • #19
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:50am Feb 8, 2007 6:50am
Quoting cesarnc
Expecting a downward move in this case?

I mean, for EUR
So does the word "viligence" mean an upward movement along with "strong viligence" in the Trichet press conference? What words will you be looking for to predict movement in EUR/USD?
  • #20
  • Feb 8, 2007 12:41pm Feb 8, 2007 12:41pm
"Strong vigilance remains of the essence so as to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialize," Trichet said - language that has augured an imminent rate increase the past six times he has used it.
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