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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #101,161
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:51pm Jul 15, 2008 3:51pm
after sitting on the sidelines since June and losing on my first trade today..i'm beginning to agree with folks thinking the trend has changed...i mean long term..baby...so could 213.00 be the top until Oct at least???....

lets see what the next two days bring...baby
  • #101,162
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:51pm Jul 15, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Thank you Malcolmb.
If the 1HR 50EMA holds I am thinking to hold overnight into Wednesday for interest. But not too sure....

I would not bother ... gbpchf is a carry trade just like gbpjpy ....

it moves a lot faster than GBPJPY .. as you saw today. If the s*** hits the fan tongith during euro session gbpchf is going to be back at where you bought it.

If I were you I would take the profit and run ... no trader ever went borke taking a profit and with the GBPCHF there are aweosme trades EVERY DAY

Historically it moves 130 pips during both the euro and the us session
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  • #101,163
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:53pm Jul 15, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting Big Bruv
after sitting on the sidelines since June and losing on my first trade today..i'm beginning to agree with folks thinking the trend has changed...i mean long term..baby...so could 213.00 be the top until Oct at least???....

lets see what the next two days bring...baby

Remember when gj was dropping .. the drops would be 250 - 400 pips and the retracements 200 pips. I like those numbers ...lol
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  • #101,164
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:54pm Jul 15, 2008 3:54pm
X marks of possible trend changes, just a view, not a reco
Attached Image
  • #101,165
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:58pm Jul 15, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Piplucky, i dont think the forums this one include was designed for trade calls in its essense, was more about techniques, sharing for one may see what aother does not. Aus developed his technique and shared it all the ins and outs of it. Myself i do not use it but almost any tenchique will work if you master it. Trade calls are a bad idea imo for who would take a trade based solely on anothers analysis, will they know when something changes or time to get out NO, because it wasnt their trade developed, could be disasterous for someone, anyone who takes it. Time Patients and Money will ussually = success for becoming adept
Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. When I logged on I was just woundering what you guys thoughts about the side ways action or rather lack of action. My system or lack of a system, I use Bollinger, Moving Pivot points, MACD, Stochastic 10/6/6, Fibo, Suport/Resistance and Fear/Greed. I don't know what you call that. When I put it all together and it work to my favor I call it Lucky if it goes bad, well I just move on. when the trade is right it's right that's basicaly how I do it. when I'm well rested I hardly ever make a bad trade, but if I'm tired forget it. Anyway; thanks for the feed back, I do like posting and reading all of your post, it makes me feel part of something.

Thanks
  • #101,166
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:03pm Jul 15, 2008 4:03pm
What made the dj run 300 points today up ... oil futures dropping $7 in one day ... IS THIS ALL THEY HAVE GOT ???

1) Bush asking to allow drilling off coast of US ... what they have special drill rigs now that can be producing oil in 1 week ? not to mention the bs congress has to get thru with the environmental groups ....

2) oil requirements dropping in 2009 ... 2010 ... what is half the worlds population going to drop dead and stop using their cars ? Most of the Western world has to travel by car to get to work ... to guess what ... oh yeah earn money to eat and survive. We have become a population addicted to convenience and debt that I do not think people will catch the bus to work (taking 2 hours ) rather than drive to work ( taking 45 minutes).

I smell Feds trying to grasp at something to hold the market up as the banking sector collapses.

Oh and now the futures and gbpjpy going up because Intel profits are up 25% .... guess what that is BS as well as that was likely last years inventory they sold....no economy = no busines = no computers required
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  • #101,167
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:05pm Jul 15, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I would not bother ... gbpchf is a carry trade just like gbpjpy ....

it moves a lot faster than GBPJPY .. as you saw today. If the s*** hits the fan tongith during euro session gbpchf is going to be back at where you bought it.

If I were you I would take the profit and run ... no trader ever went borke taking a profit and with the GBPCHF there are aweosme trades EVERY DAY

Historically it moves 130 pips during both the euro and the us session
Packed them in....because I LOVE profit and HATE giving it back.
  • #101,168
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:05pm Jul 15, 2008 4:05pm
209.50 looking to me like a critical spot...a close below this and 205.60 looks easy...i have closed all my long term long trades as i think this might be it...the trend change...baby....i'm waiting for confirmation on the weekly...
then BANG...dat dog is mine...baby
  • #101,169
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:06pm Jul 15, 2008 4:06pm
GJ daily candle just closed at the price of 210.05. was expecting more up, but it's all good. daily candle also closed below gann for the first time since may 22nd. also CCI confirmed crossing 0 line downwards.

daily momentum is pointing up signaling a retracement to 5sma at 211 area. i'll stick to my longs until we get there hopefully.

no signal up until now, price is trading below the new DP (210.28). a close above that and we probably will go higher. i will add 1 more long if 1h gann crosses upwards.

however, if my m30 gann crosses back down, i'll exit my long and will consider a short trade.

good luck all!
  • #101,170
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:12pm Jul 15, 2008 4:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Here is something for all of you ...

I used to trade something called open range breakouts on stocks., I still use it for futures.

The GBPJPY broke major support with a very fast drop . When this happens price comes back and re-tests the break out level 99 % of the time. This is when you enter the trade.

For those looking to get short for a swing trade 210.2 retest was the area to do this


I was trying to say that earlier, but I just couldn't word it so gracefully. Nice analysis Malcolm as always! That breakout was the easiest thing to trade on this pair for two weeks now and that's my plan for shorting as well.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #101,171
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:12pm Jul 15, 2008 4:12pm
Quoting lilmoe
GJ daily candle just closed at the price of 210.05. was expecting more up, but it's all good. daily candle also closed below gann for the first time since may 22nd. also CCI confirmed crossing 0 line downwards.

daily momentum is pointing up signaling a retracement to 5sma at 211 area. i'll stick to my longs until we get there hopefully.

no signal up until now, price is trading below the new DP (210.28). a close above that and we probably will go higher. i will add 1 more long if 1h gann crosses upwards.

however, if my m30 gann crosses back down, i'll exit my long and will consider a short trade.

good luck all!

Mr 8 hour chart says 210.5 is hard area to cross above .. put it this way last time she broke down like this it went down fast ... 150 pips retrace / sideways for a few hours then wham ... down she goes again .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.jpg Size: 127 KB
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  • #101,172
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:16pm Jul 15, 2008 4:16pm
UJ trapped between 20 , and 40 SMA on weekly, numbers currently around 104 and 107. Either one will be hard to break, but I favor it breaking up, since it already broke the 20.
Attached Image
  • #101,173
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:16pm Jul 15, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Mr 8 hour chart says 210.5 is hard area to cross above .. put it this way last time she broke down like this it went down fast ... 150 pips retrace / sideways for a few hours then wham ... down she goes again .

Attachment
my m30 system should give me a good entry short at a good price i think, i ain't rushin', just takin it easy
  • #101,174
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:16pm Jul 15, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting lilmoe
GJ daily candle just closed at the price of 210.05. was expecting more up, but it's all good. daily candle also closed below gann for the first time since may 22nd. also CCI confirmed crossing 0 line downwards.

daily momentum is pointing up signaling a retracement to 5sma at 211 area. i'll stick to my longs until we get there hopefully.

no signal up until now, price is trading below the new DP (210.28). a close above that and we probably will go higher. i will add 1 more long if 1h gann crosses upwards.

however, if my m30 gann crosses back down, i'll exit my long and will consider a short trade.

good luck all!
Interesting thought on daily pivots ..... how do you set them when the end of the day can be set by the user ? Mine do not reset to midnight PST as the forex is a 24 hour market. I guess the new dialy pivot is close enough to my S3 at 210.17
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  • #101,175
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:17pm Jul 15, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting lilmoe
GJ daily candle just closed at the price of 210.05. was expecting more up, but it's all good. daily candle also closed below gann for the first time since may 22nd. also CCI confirmed crossing 0 line downwards.

daily momentum is pointing up signaling a retracement to 5sma at 211 area. i'll stick to my longs until we get there hopefully.

no signal up until now, price is trading below the new DP (210.28). a close above that and we probably will go higher. i will add 1 more long if 1h gann crosses upwards.

however, if my m30 gann crosses back down, i'll exit my long and will consider a short trade.

good luck all!
So where are you taking us ....I'm
  • #101,176
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:20pm Jul 15, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Mr 8 hour chart says 210.5 is hard area to cross above .. put it this way last time she broke down like this it went down fast ... 150 pips retrace / sideways for a few hours then wham ... down she goes again .

Attachment
Using my fear/greed system, I would say sell below 209.50; if everthing else lines up.
  • #101,177
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:20pm Jul 15, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting trustGod1234
So where are you taking us ....I'm
I'm short in geppy since Sunday evening.
  • #101,178
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:21pm Jul 15, 2008 4:21pm
The power of floor pivots and 3 bar pivots

Here is the 15 min chart gbpchf ... hit s2 ...formed 3 bar pivot ... red dot (2 higher lows) ... went all way to daily pivot ... nice earner ... did not trade it as only want to go short

nice short off daily pivot with another three bar pivot (green dot for sell)... that one gave a few pips (2.0190 / s01)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gc.jpg Size: 128 KB
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  • #101,179
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:24pm Jul 15, 2008 4:24pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Interesting thought on daily pivots ..... how do you set them when the end of the day can be set by the user ? Mine do not reset to midnight PST as the forex is a 24 hour market. I guess the new dialy pivot is close enough to my S3 at 210.17
just a thought, 210.40 was a 50% fib of the latest bear run.

i set my pivots indicator at the start of the day (value = 0), my platform is GMT+3 at the moment, will change to GMT+2 at winter. my s3 was at 209.88 and held somewhat well.

just as the day closed on my platform price jumped some 23 pips. i guess someone got out of their shorts, lol.
  • #101,180
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:25pm Jul 15, 2008 4:25pm
Quoting PipLucky
Using my fear/greed system, I would say sell below 209.50; if everthing else lines up.

fear / greed .. I like it

.
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