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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,421
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:06am Jul 15, 2008 10:06am
Quoting fti
see those tails, its heavy arsenals,
to counter heavy equiptment, ----mobility.

stay light weighted , move quickly.
flow with it, then take potshots.
don't send in the army, you are outnumbered.
10-4
  • #3,422
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:16am Jul 15, 2008 10:16am
Pace her, don't fall in love with bias,
Its no time to get sentimental.
Regroup for lunch then eagle eyes her.
  • #3,423
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:21am Jul 15, 2008 10:21am
Quoting fti
see those tails, its heavy arsenals,
to counter heavy equiptment, ----mobility.

stay light weighted , move quickly.
flow with it, then take potshots.
don't send in the army, you are outnumbered.
Chief, thanks for giving us your wife gift. I will pass it along.

Yes, I am done again...Enter long...then so the lady changing on me...and quick reversal with 2 waves...I capture the first large wave...over all: 111 pips...Enough for the day.

Although I cannot figure out why the dollar is getting stronger...Ben said that economy is going to hell this year and next one...only if the European drop their rates...but their inflation is getting worse...who knows...I just collect pips and laugh..

leigh, when are you letting see your results?...I am very eager so see your overnight strategy again...I have some ideas about it....I am interviewing for a job and I keep thinking that your approach might help me...

Best wishes to all,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,424
  • Edited 10:38am Jul 15, 2008 10:27am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting luSan
Chief, thanks for giving us your wife gift. I will pass it along.

Yes, I am done again...Enter long...then so the lady changing on me...and quick reversal with 2 waves...I capture the first large wave...over all: 111 pips...Enough for the day.

Although I cannot figure out why the dollar is getting stronger...Ben said that economy is going to hell this year and next one...only if the European drop their rates...but their inflation is getting worse...who knows...I just collect pips and laugh..

leigh, when are you letting see your results?...I am very eager so see your overnight strategy again...I have some ideas about it....I am interviewing for a job and I keep thinking that your approach might help me...

Best wishes to all,
Hi Lusan.
he's signalling that his hold the rates stance may change.
and he may change his stance to favour rate hikes to undo the damage his last action didi.
and markets vv short USD, all scambling to bail out aided by owners.So more snooking of weak holders should come.

Don't think now, anything is possible stay with flow instead. All bias will now be speculative thinking only.

regards

For me today, had been a vv good day. Just buried a dead scout. However the damaged was easily rectified, now flowing with the river, and looking for possible exits later.

The feds is very insistance that the 1.6000 range be not taken out. Note their timing. and the false sweep over it to trap.
For now they have the podium.
Chartwise EUR/USD 's 1.6000 is very resisted . is it gonna be the interim top, who knows?
  • #3,425
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:52am Jul 15, 2008 10:52am
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan.
he's signalling that his hold the rates stance may change.
and he may change his stance to favour rate hikes to undo the damage his last action didi.
and markets vv short USD, all scambling to bail out aided by owners.So more snooking of weak holders should come.

Don't think now, anything is possible stay with flow instead. All bias will now be speculative thinking only.

regards

For me today, had been a vv good day. Just buried a dead scout. However the damaged was easily rectified, now flowing with the river, and looking for possible exits later.

The feds is very insistance that the 1.6000 range be not taken out. Note their timing. and the false sweep over it to trap.
For now they have the podium.
Chartwise EUR/USD 's 1.6000 is very resisted . is it gonna be the interim top, who knows?
Thanks...I did bury that man too...Gosh! the day and hour trends were long...but we ended up going short...that says a lot about not falling in love with the wrong woman..I was feeling sorry for the scout...I killed him!

by they way...oil is falling rapidly on expectation of lower demand from weak economics...I think that they are accepting stagflation
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,426
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:58am Jul 15, 2008 10:58am
I'd like to post something from an email I recieved, how would I do that?
  • #3,427
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:06am Jul 15, 2008 11:06am
Quoting luSan
Thanks...I did bury that man too...Gosh! the day and hour trends were long...but we ended up going short...that says a lot about not falling in love with the wrong woman..I was feeling sorry for the scout...I killed him!

by they way...oil is falling rapidly on expectation of lower demand from weak economics...I think that they are accepting stagflation
Hi,
not really too bad,
Daily chart reversing very deep, Hourly charts have long tails sticking out. means that evey attempt to rally was snuffed out.
Count your blessings, that it was only one dead scout.
Picture those trading indicators, haven't got wind to it yet.
I guess mostly becomes sitting duck stops somewhere below the market.
if we end today witha reversal bar ., there will be much down side probing in the EurUsd for this wek at the least.
If we manage an outside bar reveral (key reversal) the bottom s gonna fall of the Currencies. There's not enough info just yet, but the momentum seems reversed by the lip service.
I would suspect that some technical incicators are turning ,good luck to them.
Hope they not too late!if it does turn.


regards
  • #3,428
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:41am Jul 15, 2008 11:41am
Quoting lilpip
I'd like to post something from an email I recieved, how would I do that?
just copy and paste.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,429
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:41am Jul 15, 2008 11:41am
Quoting fti
...
The feds is very insistance that the 1.6000 range be not taken out. Note their timing. and the false sweep over it to trap.
For now they have the podium.
Chartwise EUR/USD 's 1.6000 is very resisted . is it gonna be the interim top, who knows?
Hi fti or other "market whisperers",

may be a silly question, but how do you know that the FED has done something in the market?
Do you know it from your deep experience?
Is it the way the market moves?
Or is it just your assumption?

Thanx!
  • #3,430
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:14pm Jul 15, 2008 12:14pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti or other "market whisperers",

may be a silly question, but how do you know that the FED has done something in the market?
Do you know it from your deep experience?
Is it the way the market moves?
Or is it just your assumption?

Thanx!
Hi,

At the bank levels, when they come into the market, their access is thru tier 1 banks, for the feds its the US teir 1s. It depends ,

if they are just checking for info, then friends and interbank brokers of those would know by means of encrypted conversations that big brother was asking.

if it was market ops (intervention) , then the teir1s would be under china wall shutdown and would be operatiing for the CB's behalf. About half a hr later thses teir 1s would inform the media, reuters,AP, IP that the CB was in the market and what they did. And thru the news services , the info would be broadcasted.

There are several patterns formed when these happens ,on short charts, that signify big hands overshadowing the market, by its gaping behaviour and scattering markets, while the load is distributed thru the market structure, that prompts.

regards
  • #3,431
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:21pm Jul 15, 2008 12:21pm
Dear fti,

Fundamentally I can't see any justification of the up move started last week, except the takeover of fannie and freddie.
Commercials and large speculators are not supporting this move , they have been unloading and adding to the support of the shorts.

in addition to the record low zew economic sentiment, the eur's main support.

Technically , All I have been seeing was bearish signals then a failure of the signals during the past two weeks.

Now I think this move as an upthrust in a distrubtion range which will be confirmed by the close of today's bar to see how much the market rejects the 1.60 level.
Enter Signature
  • #3,432
  • Edited 12:45pm Jul 15, 2008 12:34pm | Edited 12:45pm
Quoting fti
Pace her, don't fall in love with bias,
Its no time to get sentimental.
Regroup for lunch then eagle eyes her.
Its been a good session.
Have a feel for the pace while keeping an eye on her.
Its like walkin a dog in ny,never know when shes going to turn on ya.
At least we know her boundries for now, although watching to see what she does with that e/u 5910 area
  • #3,433
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:44pm Jul 15, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting CHFJunkie
Dear fti,

Fundamentally I can't see any justification of the up move started last week, except the takeover of fannie and freddie.
Commercials and large speculators are not supporting this move , they have been unloading and adding to the support of the shorts.

in addition to the record low zew economic sentiment, the eur's main support.

Technically , All I have been seeing was bearish signals then a failure of the signals during the past two weeks.

Now I think this move as an upthrust in a distrubtion range which will be confirmed by the close of today's bar to see how much the market rejects the 1.60 level.
Hi,

Well fundamentally, there is little factors to point to any strength in the greenbag, if any thing the last fed actions had created spill over effects to a devaluating dollar scenario, prompting weakness for a longer term perspective stand point.

However ben's actions today in coming clean about the impact of the fomc actions, and the hinting that monetary policy may change does have a spook effect on the market place.
Just speculating, I would be inclined to wonder , of a fomc that wants to behave reactive to the ground. What if they decide this time that they may have eased the immediate subprime problem and felt that they could test the grounds with a 75basis rate hikein respose to the EU's last actions. What do you think would be the markets reactions.

If you are a USD bear riding, your possitions, wouldn't it be prudent that some profitaking and position realignment would suit. At this level of a major big figure test zone. Coupled with ben's broadcast, many would be prompted to resize, notwithstanding squaring out.

Technically, the chart actions today are indicative of key reversal. On whether this reversal is a major Top, or a precursor to USD strength. well, thats left for us to speculate on.

regards
  • #3,434
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:49pm Jul 15, 2008 12:49pm
I agree.
but my count here is the EU economy is much more fragile than that of the u.s.
that it can not handle a crisis like that of the u.s.
with the least signal we will see euro dropping like rocket not a stone!

what do u think?
Enter Signature
  • #3,435
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:53pm Jul 15, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting MaMood
By the way: you can watch him live on Bloomberg with this link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=LiveBTV
Oh by the way , Bloomberg requires the use of the evil media player to view.
So if they want proprietary, then they have no chance in hell to get my attention.

Never support proprietary, be kind, as you have so freely received, freely give.
I will never surrender my freedom of choice.

regards
  • #3,436
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:04pm Jul 15, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting CHFJunkie
I agree.
but my count here is the EU economy is much more fragile than that of the u.s.
that it can not handle a crisis like that of the u.s.
with the least signal we will see euro dropping like rocket not a stone!

what do u think?
Hi,
your opinion is noted.
As for me I am only market player, so I prefer to follow the market as she dances, sorry my crystal ball is broken.

In my opinion, robustness of economies, is a very subjective topic to discuss. Its myrid facets excompass perspectives that are too wide to allow anyone to come to a conclusive judgement. Only thing I can say is that the US now, have the deadliest armed forces.

regards
  • #3,437
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:16pm Jul 15, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting fti
Hi,
your opinion is noted.
As for me I am only market player, so I prefer to follow the market as she dances, sorry my crystal ball is broken.

regards
you are right .

sometimes forgetting this truth , costs me alot.
from time to time, I should remind myself that having a market opinion is counter productive to swing traders.

I think it should be added to the notes stuck beside my desk

Regards
Enter Signature
  • #3,438
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:25pm Jul 15, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting fti
Hi,

Well fundamentally, there is little factors to point to any strength in the greenbag, if any thing the last fed actions had created spill over effects to a devaluating dollar scenario, prompting weakness for a longer term perspective stand point.

However ben's actions today in coming clean about the impact of the fomc actions, and the hinting that monetary policy may change does have a spook effect on the market place.
Just speculating, I would be inclined to wonder , of a fomc that wants to behave reactive to the ground. What if they decide this time that they may have eased the immediate subprime problem and felt that they could test the grounds with a 75basis rate hikein respose to the EU's last actions. What do you think would be the markets reactions.

If you are a USD bear riding, your possitions, wouldn't it be prudent that some profitaking and position realignment would suit. At this level of a major big figure test zone. Coupled with ben's broadcast, many would be prompted to resize, notwithstanding squaring out.

Technically, the chart actions today are indicative of key reversal. On whether this reversal is a major Top, or a precursor to USD strength. well, thats left for us to speculate on.

regards
Fti hi,

It would be nice to see the actual volume from today, it was a definite slap down on the 1.6 level, but she's yet to take out any support levels. Will be interesting tonight/tomorrow, depending your spot on the globe, if there's any conviction. if not we'll test the top again later this week me thinks.

personal comments, from the fundyies , there's a point where the worth of both economies has to play a part in the pair's equation, is the Euro really worth +1.6 against the greenback, some would wonder when they look at Spain and Ireland? But at the moment, no one wants the dollar, is that changing, I dunno.......

fwiw,

a
  • #3,439
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:33pm Jul 15, 2008 3:33pm
Hi fti and all,

Fti -- thanks again for this thread. It has been very enlightening for everyone who has participated. My reading list has expanded, too.

Just got caught up on the last four pages of postings. It's been a busy and very good day with the G/D, E/J, and D/Swiss. Fti, I danced the dance today. Back at it again tomorrow morning early.

I am still trying to figure out your approach and have re-read much of the thread in an attempt to do so. I will keep plugging away until I figure it out. Until that time, I hope the forex continues to deliver a few days like this one each week.

Big Ben looked funny in his Superman suite today, don't you think?

Rap
  • #3,440
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:35pm Jul 15, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting auxesis
Fti hi,

It would be nice to see the actual volume from today, it was a definite slap down on the 1.6 level, but she's yet to take out any support levels. Will be interesting tonight/tomorrow, depending your spot on the globe, if there's any conviction. if not we'll test the top again later this week me thinks.

personal comments, from the fundyies , there's a point where the worth of both economies has to play a part in the pair's equation, is the Euro really worth +1.6 against the greenback, some would wonder when they look at Spain and Ireland? But at the moment, no one wants the dollar, is that changing, I dunno.......

fwiw,

a
Anyone who does not want their dollars, please feel free to send them to me.

Rap
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