Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 171 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,401
  • Jul 15, 2008 5:38am Jul 15, 2008 5:38am
Quoting fti
sold x3 eurusd x 1.5923

now squared.
looking to reestablish scout for carry trade.

OK, these has been a couple of follow the dancer sessions.
I hope that many who do not understand, will after having seen it live, will have a better understanding and feel as how to dance, with the correct mindset, MM and capitalisation.

A pot of roses was never promised.
However if you are dedicated, and progress diligently, with a level mind on your shoulders, you may just make it to the pinnacle.

You have seen how I do it, you may be a little unsure why you cannot find a rigid regiment to follow. This , non rigidity coupled with the necessary ingredients , which I have always emphasised will stand you good , if you can put it into practise.

As you have seen it done, now, do it for yourself.
Do you have what it takes??
Only you can answer that question.

I shall be around as much as I can , in case of any questions, you may like to ask. But I will not be available as regularly.
I may do more show blotter guided trade sessions again, if they is critical need for such, and to my convenence if fits.

Its the deep end , if you take the plunge, either swim or sink.
Its all you.

Trade well.
Good Fortune.
After looking at your dance sessions I kinda liken it to jump rope.
While were trying to jump the rope in 3 or 4 consecutive jumps your over there jumping double dutch 2 ropes going both ways.
  • #3,402
  • Jul 15, 2008 5:43am Jul 15, 2008 5:43am
Quoting fti
Hi
No MaMood, ...

strategising of MO and MM, and must never dominate "dance"( ryhthm ) nor "form" nor trader emotions. It is a function of strategy.

The latter must come from the price gyrations and the point of reference for that is in the "NOW". Now , does not mean only price,althought it is of grave importance. It incooperates the price and mode of gyration (movement). It is hard to describe, you have to be in to feel it.


regards
Hi, FTI.

How is your trading today. So we can see the gyration by speed and volitility of price movement, right?

And what do you mean time window, something like 7 bars? And you said GBP/USD was lack of one leg yesterday. Does this "leg" mean wave?

You are correct I am confused with my MO. Short-time mixed with intra-day and long term riding.

Thanks.

David
  • #3,403
  • Jul 15, 2008 6:01am Jul 15, 2008 6:01am
Quoting fti
So stay around and help some here, won't you.You know, my exuberance may not be the cup of tea for some. Some here would do good with some whipping and tough love from you.

regards
Agreed, it would be nice to have Leigh around to whip all of us. We all have our own little scorpions to deal with.
  • #3,404
  • Jul 15, 2008 6:55am Jul 15, 2008 6:55am
Quoting Zoran
Agreed, it would be nice to have Leigh around to whip all of us. We all have our own little scorpions to deal with.
Yes it would, never really had much time to get to know mother.
  • #3,405
  • Jul 15, 2008 8:10am Jul 15, 2008 8:10am
Hi,
Courtesy of Karen, my wife.

For your reading pleasure....here it goes....

The first day of school our professor introduced himself and challenged us
to get to know someone we didn't already know. I stood up to look around
when a gentle hand touched my shoulder.

I turned around to find a wrinkled, little old lady beaming up at me with a
smile that lit up her entire being.

She said,
'Hi handsome. My name is Rose. I'm eighty-seven years old.
Can I give you a hug?'

I laughed and enthusiastically responded,
'Of course you may!' and she gave me a giant squeeze.

'Why are you in college at such a young, innocent age?' I asked.


She jokingly replied, 'I'm here to meet a rich husband, get married,
and have a couple of kids...'

'No seriously,' I asked. I was curious what may have motivated her to
be taking on this challenge at her age.

'I always dreamed of having a college education and now I'm getting
one!' she told me.

After class we walked to the student union building and shared a chocolate
milkshake.

We became instant friends. Every day for the next three months we would
leave class together and talk nonstop. I was always mesmerized listening to
this 'time machine' as she shared her wisdom and experience with me.

Over the course of the year, Rose became a campus icon and she easily made friends wherever she went. She loved to dress up and she revelled in the attention bestowed upon her from the other students. She was living it up.

At the end of the semester we invited Rose to speak at our football banquet.
I'll never forget what she taught us. She was introduced and stepped up to
the podium. As she began to deliver her prepared speech, she dropped her
three by five cards on the floor.

Frustrated and a little embarrassed she leaned into the microphone and
simply said, 'I'm sorry I'm so jittery. I gave up beer for Lent and this
whiskey is killing me! I'll never get my speech back in order so let me
just tell you what I know.'

As we laughed she cleared her throat and began, 'We do not stop playing
because we are old; we grow old because we stop playing.

There are only four secrets to staying young, being happy and achieving
success. You have to laugh and find humour every day. You've got to have a
dream. When you lose your dreams, you die.

We have so many people walking around who are dead and don't even know it!

There is a huge difference between growing older and growing up.

If you are nineteen years old and lie in bed for one full year and don't do
one productive thing, you will turn twenty years old. If I am eighty-seven
years old and stay in bed for a year and never do anything I will turn
eighty-eight.

Anybody can grow older. That doesn't take any talent or ability. The idea
is to grow up by always finding opportunity in change.. Have no regrets.

The elderly usually don't have regrets for what we did, but rather for
things we did not do. The only people who fear death are those with
regrets.'

She concluded her speech by courageously singing 'The Rose.'
Inserted Video


She challenged each of us to study the lyrics and live them out in our daily
lives. At the year's end Rose finished the college degree she had begun all
those years ago.

One week after graduation Rose died peacefully in her sleep.

Over two thousand college students attended her funeral in tribute to the
wonderful woman who taught by example that it's never too late to be all
you can possibly be.

When you finish reading this, please send this peaceful word of advice to
your friends and family, they'll really enjoy it!

These words have been passed along in loving memory of ROSE.

REMEMBER, GROWING OLDER IS MANDATORY. GROWING UP IS OPTIONAL. We make a Living by what we get; we make a Life by what we give.

God promises a safe landing, not a calm passage. If God brings you to it, He
will bring you through it.

Pass this message to 7 people except you and me. You will receive a miracle
tomorrow (if you don't think so...look out your window when you wake in the morning and think about it )

If you choose not, then you refuse to bless someone else.

'Good friends are like stars..........You don't always see them, but you know they are always there.

regards
  • #3,406
  • Jul 15, 2008 8:12am Jul 15, 2008 8:12am
Quoting fti
Hi
....
You have to be on live to understand, reading will do little for understanding. If you were following the trades, try recontructing the trade mindset and sequenses of events again, it would be meaningless.


regards
fti, thanx for your detailed answer.

I'm going to replay your yesterday session with your comments beside my screen, to get more used to your way of dancing, seeing patterns and the market bias.
  • #3,407
  • Jul 15, 2008 8:48am Jul 15, 2008 8:48am
Quoting fti
Anybody can grow older. That doesn't take any talent or ability. The idea
is to grow up by always finding opportunity in change.. Have no regrets.
Very wise indeed.

When we achieve all that we want and stop creating, we become "The ALL" and enter a phase of self-destruction. In other words, the living dead.

It's through change and creation that brings life. Now that I have read "Tunnel Thru the Air Or Looking Back from 1940" by W.D.Gann, I realise that love is life!

fti, I think you have passed the message onto more than 7 people. Will you still get your miracle tomorrow?
  • #3,408
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:05am Jul 15, 2008 9:05am
Quoting Zoran
Very wise indeed.

When we achieve all that we want and stop creating, we become "The ALL" and enter a phase of self-destruction. In other words, the living dead.

It's through change and creation that brings life. Now that I have read "Tunnel Thru the Air Or Looking Back from 1940" by W.D.Gann, I realise that love is life!

fti, I think you have passed the message onto more than 7 people. Will you still get your miracle tomorrow?
Hi Zoran,

I got my miracle, a long time ago.And have lived it.
Now the almighty , had created a medium for me to pass it down to others that they too may find it in their life.

The human kind is full of love, mostly things are not shared, because they cannot afford to. We have to be able to afford it, to share. Many don't have enough , therefore it is difficult to share that which they have need for.

If you master what I tried to pass down, you will have abundance to share. Then sharing becomes afforadable to you.
However when you share , you must look after your own scurity concerns.
As when you have much to share, so shall you attract the devil whom seeks to rob you of it. Skill is something that cannot be robbed.

regards
  • #3,409
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:05am Jul 15, 2008 9:05am
Hi fti

Karen's story reminded me of Baz Luhrmann's song
Inserted Video


Enjoy the power and beauty of your youth. Oh, nevermind, you won't understand the power and beauty of your youth until they've faded, but trust me in 20 years, you'll look back at photos of yourself and recall in a way you can't grasp now how much possibility lay before you and how fabulous you really looked. You are not as fat as you imagine.
Don't worry about the future, or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubblegum.
The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind: the kind that blindsides you at 4pm on some idle Tuesday.
Do one thing every day that scares you.
Sing.
Don't be reckless with other people's hearts; don't put up with people who are reckless with yours.
Floss.
Don't waste your time on jealousy. Sometimes you're ahead, sometimes you're behind. The race is long, and in the end, it's only with yourself.
Remember compliments you receive; forget the insults. (if you succeed in doing this, tell me how).
Keep your old love letters; throw away your old bank statements.
Stretch.
Don't feel guilty if you don't know what you want to do with your life. The most interesting people I know didn't know at 22 what they wanted to do with their lives; some of the most interesting 40 year olds I know still don't.
Get plenty of Calcium. Be kind to your knees -- you'll miss them when they're gone.
Maybe you'll marry, maybe you won't. Maybe you'll have children, maybe you won't. Maybe you'll divorce at 40; maybe you'll dance the funky chicken on your 75th wedding anniversary.
Whatever you do, don't congratulate yourself too much or berate yourself, either. Your choices are half chance, so are everybody else's.
Enjoy your body: use it every way you can. Don't be afraid of it or what other people think of it; it's the greatest instrument you'll ever own.
Dance...even if you have no where to do it but in your own living room.
Read the directions (even if you don't follow them).
Do not read beauty magazines; they will only make you feel ugly.
Get to know your parents; you never know when they'll be gone for good.
Be nice to your siblings: they're your best link to your past and the people most likely to stick with you in the future.
Understand that friends come and go, but that a precious few should hold on. Work hard to bridge the gaps and geography and lifestyle, because the older you get, the more you need the people you knew when you were young.
Live in New York City once, but leave before it makes you hard.
Live in Northern California once, but leave before it makes you soft.
Travel.
Accept certain inalienable truths: prices will rise, politicians will philander, you too will get old; and when you do, you'll fantasize that when you were young, prices were reasonable, politicians were noble, and children respected their elders.
Respect your elders.
Don't expect anyone else to support you. Maybe you have a trust fund, maybe you'll have a wealthy spouse, but you never know when either one might run out.
Don't mess too much with your hair or by the time you are 40, it will look 85.
Be careful whose advice you buy, but be patient with those who supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia; dispensing it is a way of wishing the past from the disposal--wiping it off, painting over the ugly parts, and recycling it for more than it's worth.
But trust me on the sunscreen.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #3,410
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:14am Jul 15, 2008 9:14am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Courtesy of Karen, my wife.

For your reading pleasure....here it goes....

The first day of school our professor introduced himself and challenged us
to get to ..............

regards
very nice story sir... , reminds me of a friend , she is 84 n has no trace that age has affected her in anyway , moreover she leads one of India's woman empowerment organization
http://ismaili.net/timeline/2003/20031002ie.html --> thats her ...

btw wats bernanke saying any clue ?, dollar seems to be getting weaker
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,411
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:19am Jul 15, 2008 9:19am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Courtesy of Karen, my wife.

For your reading pleasure....here it goes....

The first day of school our professor introduced himself and challenged us
to get to know someone we didn't already know. I stood up to look around
when a gentle hand touched my shoulder.

I turned around to find a wrinkled, little old lady beaming up at me with a
smile that lit up her entire being.

She said,
'Hi handsome. My name is Rose. I'm eighty-seven years old.
Can I give you a hug?'

I laughed and enthusiastically responded,
'Of course you may!' and she gave me a giant squeeze.

'Why are you in college at such a young, innocent age?' I asked.


She jokingly replied, 'I'm here to meet a rich husband, get married,
and have a couple of kids...'

'No seriously,' I asked. I was curious what may have motivated her to
be taking on this challenge at her age.

'I always dreamed of having a college education and now I'm getting
one!' she told me.

After class we walked to the student union building and shared a chocolate
milkshake.

We became instant friends. Every day for the next three months we would
leave class together and talk nonstop. I was always mesmerized listening to
this 'time machine' as she shared her wisdom and experience with me.

Over the course of the year, Rose became a campus icon and she easily made friends wherever she went. She loved to dress up and she revelled in the attention bestowed upon her from the other students. She was living it up.

At the end of the semester we invited Rose to speak at our football banquet.
I'll never forget what she taught us. She was introduced and stepped up to
the podium. As she began to deliver her prepared speech, she dropped her
three by five cards on the floor.

Frustrated and a little embarrassed she leaned into the microphone and
simply said, 'I'm sorry I'm so jittery. I gave up beer for Lent and this
whiskey is killing me! I'll never get my speech back in order so let me
just tell you what I know.'

As we laughed she cleared her throat and began, 'We do not stop playing
because we are old; we grow old because we stop playing.

There are only four secrets to staying young, being happy and achieving
success. You have to laugh and find humour every day. You've got to have a
dream. When you lose your dreams, you die.

We have so many people walking around who are dead and don't even know it!

There is a huge difference between growing older and growing up.

If you are nineteen years old and lie in bed for one full year and don't do
one productive thing, you will turn twenty years old. If I am eighty-seven
years old and stay in bed for a year and never do anything I will turn
eighty-eight.

Anybody can grow older. That doesn't take any talent or ability. The idea
is to grow up by always finding opportunity in change.. Have no regrets.

The elderly usually don't have regrets for what we did, but rather for
things we did not do. The only people who fear death are those with
regrets.'

She concluded her speech by courageously singing 'The Rose.'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYWAYLZWZBg

She challenged each of us to study the lyrics and live them out in our daily
lives. At the year's end Rose finished the college degree she had begun all
those years ago.

One week after graduation Rose died peacefully in her sleep.

Over two thousand college students attended her funeral in tribute to the
wonderful woman who taught by example that it's never too late to be all
you can possibly be.

When you finish reading this, please send this peaceful word of advice to
your friends and family, they'll really enjoy it!

These words have been passed along in loving memory of ROSE.

REMEMBER, GROWING OLDER IS MANDATORY. GROWING UP IS OPTIONAL. We make a Living by what we get; we make a Life by what we give.

God promises a safe landing, not a calm passage. If God brings you to it, He
will bring you through it.

Pass this message to 7 people except you and me. You will receive a miracle
tomorrow (if you don't think so...look out your window when you wake in the morning and think about it )

If you choose not, then you refuse to bless someone else.

'Good friends are like stars..........You don't always see them, but you know they are always there.

regards
Thats beautiful fti, I have no words to say but tears in my eyes.

Thanks once again
  • #3,412
  • Edited 9:40am Jul 15, 2008 9:24am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi fti

Karen's story reminded me of Baz Luhrmann's song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfq_A8nXMsQ

....................................................................

But trust me on the sunscreen.
Hi DutchAngel,
Thanks fo typing it all out for us.
The truths of life.It is.

I would like o put my order for my bottle of sunscreen.
OOp too late.

anybody, can help me with turning back the clock?
Inserted Video


regards

Oh by the way, the missing cable leg, we are seeing it now.
And some big force is behind the USD and it is making its presence felt.
Funny that I am in the mkt again , people seem hush hush.
But lip service is lip service, the realities will not disappear. So dance the freebee.
When shit hits the fan, it take a long time to clean up.benny boy..LOL
  • #3,413
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:32am Jul 15, 2008 9:32am
Quoting maheswara

btw wats bernanke saying any clue ?, dollar seems to be getting weaker
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled policy makers are unclear about the direction of interest rates because the risks to both growth and inflation have increased.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...a0c&refer=home
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #3,414
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:37am Jul 15, 2008 9:37am
Quoting maheswara
btw wats bernanke saying any clue ?, dollar seems to be getting weaker
Hi, from DowJones news wire:

Bernanke acknowledged that the declining U.S. dollar has "contributed somewhat" to higher oil prices but said other forces - primarily global supply and demand - are the "principal drivers."
He noted uncertainty in the U.S. inflation outlook, but warned the U.S. economy faces "numerous difficulties," suggesting those risks remain his top priority despite a significant upward revision to the Fed's 2008 growth forecast.
Bernanke's remarks Tuesday support the idea that the target fed funds rate for overnight lending will stay at 2% for many months. The Fed cut the fed funds rate by 3.25 percentage points between September and April. That reality has undercut hopes for a dollar rebound against the euro.
  • #3,415
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:40am Jul 15, 2008 9:40am
By the way: you can watch him live on Bloomberg with this link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=LiveBTV
  • #3,416
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:46am Jul 15, 2008 9:46am
Quoting MaMood
Hi, from DowJones news wire:

Bernanke acknowledged that the declining U.S. dollar has "contributed somewhat" to higher oil prices but said other forces - primarily global supply and demand - are the "principal drivers."
He noted uncertainty in the U.S. inflation outlook, but warned the U.S. economy faces "numerous difficulties," suggesting those risks remain his top priority despite a significant upward revision to the Fed's 2008 growth forecast.
Bernanke's remarks Tuesday support the idea that the target fed funds rate for overnight lending will stay at 2% for many months. The Fed cut the fed funds rate by 3.25 percentage points between September and April. That reality has undercut hopes for a dollar rebound against the euro.
Hi yeah, same old story,
Cleaning up the shit is difficult when it hits the fan, and is all over the place.

anyways ,like he didn't know that when he pumped the morphine into our veins.
Denial anin't gonna do much good when the stuff hits the fan.
Battlestations People. You're now commanders.

Dnace it well, don't be flat footed.

regards
  • #3,417
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:49am Jul 15, 2008 9:49am
Quoting fti
Hi yeah, same old story,
Cleaning up the shit is difficult when it hits the fan, and is all over the place.

anyways ,like he didn't know that when he pumped the morphine into our veins.
Denial anin't gonna do much good when the stuff hits the fan.
Battlestations People. You're now commanders.

Dnace it well, don't be flat footed.

regards
Very strong picture.
Made me laughing loud ;-)
  • #3,418
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:49am Jul 15, 2008 9:49am
Quoting MaMood
By the way: you can watch him live on Bloomberg with this link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=LiveBTV
Thanks for the link, MaMood.

regards
  • #3,419
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:51am Jul 15, 2008 9:51am
Just as I began to read the Rose story I wondered if it was going to be another tear jerker, sure enough.
Thanks for all your lessons the last couple weeks.
  • #3,420
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:02am Jul 15, 2008 10:02am
see those tails, its heavy arsenals,
to counter heavy equiptment, ----mobility.

stay light weighted , move quickly.
flow with it, then take potshots.
don't send in the army, you are outnumbered.
18 traders viewing now