Technical Analysis Fallacy

There hasn't been too many euro bulls in the post lunch US sessions as of late, with exception for a few fireworks days, by 19 or 20gmt everyone's usually counting their money, distribution as the market returns to the 24hr mean.

Everyone needs to polish their best dancing shoes and soak your feet, tomorrow should be a good one.

regards to all,

a

Thanks a lot for showing us some real time trading sessions. They have been very important for understanding the way you dance - at least to me.

Thanks for all your time you spend with us.

Have a good time and of course a lot successful trading sessions!!

Bye for now.

MaMood

Hi David,

I am so sorry to hear about your MC =(

I'm going to be honest with you ... I'm afraid that no matter what anybody advises you, you seem to keep committing the same mistakes over and over. We had this convo with you throughout this thread maybe 3 times already. I have come to realize that with you, nobody can help you with your mindset and addictions but yourself. Until you are ready to make the changes to your habits, you will go down this path over and over again. This is clear at this point. Nobody, not even fti, seems to be able to save you from your "scorpions," because no matter how many times he, me and others (and heck, even yourself), tell you what your mistakes were (which are always the same as your previous mistakes), you continue to commit them.

It's become a broken record.

When I read your post, the main mistake I feel you made was not saving your troops when you had the opportunity to do so.

The Forex market is such that, there are always opportunities to conduct successful rescues due to the "wave" patterns.

Maybe this can help you some ...

What I do now with my rescues is ... once my rescue troops are in (calculated 20 pips from B/E), I then set a limit order to exit ALL troops/positions at B/E + 5 pips. I only leave in Scout if I feel market may continue in my direction, otherwise, I save/exit Scout at the same time, as well.

I'm not out to make huge profits from rescues missions. My only goal for rescues is to complete them successfully to save the book.

Below is where your first rescue attempt would have saved you ...

The "spike" had nothing to do with it. I'm afraid that's not a viable excuse, my dear , lol, because the price still went past your B/E point. If you had put in a limit order at 9815 (your reaveraged price + 5 pips) to exit ALL positions (with or without Scout), you would have saved your book. Even if you had left Scout in, you still would have had to rescue him again, but because he's the only one to rescue and he's small enough, you would have enough resources to rescue successfully again and with no stress. So, again, once the market reaches B/E + 5 pips, you exit ALL troops/positions (with or without Scout). You can see that, you can basically do this over and over again until the market eventually moves your direction (however, sometimes it's just best to exit ALL positions, reassess your charts to look for better trades, rather than having to lose profit-taking time with continuous rescue trades).

Anyway, do you see that when you rescue in the manner I explained above, you can always save the book? It doesn't matter if you're 100 - 150+ pips down (in fact, I wait however long it takes until I see in the PA that I will be able to get my minimum 25 pips from the rescue move), or even if you're against the trend ... you can save/rescue successfully every time (granted of course, you have enough resources to conduct the rescue, thus you never want to be overexposed from the onset).

I would recommend that you scale down your position size of Scout even smaller than .5 for now. My suggestion to you (as some others have already noted) is that you need to start out with trading .1 lot. Here's why ...

If you are 100 pips down and want rescue to be 20 pips from B/E ...

A) .1 lot would need .4 lot added for rescue to total .5 lots exposed.
B) .5 lot would need 2 lots added for rescue to total 2.5 lots exposed.

Now, let's say you were unsuccessful with the first rescue due to bad timing, and the market moved another 100 pips against you ...

A) .5 lot would need 2 lots added for rescue to total 2.5 lots exposed.
B) 2.5 lots would need 10 lots added for rescue to total 12.5 lots exposed.

Now, if you were still unsuccessful and would need a 3rd rescue, then you need to re-evaluate how you are reading the PA, because there are definite signs that give clues to when rescue can be initiated. As I mentioned before, I do not dance the way fti does, but as long as the end results are successful, I feel that's all that matters. The same goes for you ... you don't have to dance like either fti or me, but if you're misreading the PA as to when it is safe to initiate rescue, then you need to do more studying of the charts to get better with that.

There is really no reason to ever have to expose more troops than you can afford for rescues, because in my experience, when timed right, rescue at 20 pips from B/E is normally doable majority of the time on the FIRST rescue attempt even if 100 pips in the red.

Let's say, however, that you need that 2nd or even a 3rd rescue ... there will be at least ONE of those rescues where you will be able to B/E and lessen your load successfully to only have to leave Scout in, so that you are never overexposed to have to take a margin call. With your rescue resources back into your book, you can even continue to conduct further rescues if needed, until the market turns back your way. I have done enough trades at this point, to where I know this to be true.

I have been doing a LOT of "testing" while I have been away, haha, and through it all, I have found that you can even survive "tsunamis" if you use safe MM, are never overexposed and time your rescues right. Earlier, I, too, took losses after having conducted "attacks" just to have the market turn against me, mainly cuz I got spooked by the thought of what if it turned into a tsunami. Even though I'm never overexposed (cuz I use fractional lots on a mini account), still the possible tsunami created major stress for me, to the point that I took the losses to just get out of the position and get some sleep, lol, even if I was very close to the B/E point.

However, at this point of my "testings/experiments" and coming up with what I hope is my final "system," haha, I have found that rescues are never threatening anymore and there's no need to take any losses. I can even be against the trend and still be book positive, when done right and using the method I explained above. I have been conducting rescues very successfully since, but I confess, I've had to deviate from fti's original "attack" sequence method. For this reason, I will not post my method here, but will do so elsewhere when the time comes to share it.

Sorry, fti, but I have come to realize that I cannot do your "attack" sequence method. Rescuing after "attack" sequence levels have been entered, is much too stressful and health destructive for me (it especially hit me that I don't want to be exactly like you, after your recent health scare you gave us). Thus, I have been working on a more suitable system for myself (and for others who need less stress in their lives and who want to take better care of their health).

Anyway, I can report that I'm having very successful ROI with it, so you need not worry about me, la

Even though I've had to deviate from your "attack" method, this thread and your teachings, have been so valuable to me and everyone , so no matter what method/system we trade ... the "mindset" lessons, the rescue/reaveraging concept, NO stop losses, as well as your other shares, are still the backbone of my methodology. The main thing I had to tweak for myself, is the "attacks" (so that rescues are stressfree) and I've rid myself the need for babysitting, lol (don't worry, babies sleep well through the night and in fact, many poop $$ when I get up to check on them ). Anyway, when you see my system you will understand what that's all about.

I have not been posting to this thread lately, because I really had nothing more to contribute to this thread. Zoran had contacted me to find out what's been going on with me, and I told him I would post when I have made my spreadsheet goal (since I promised/betted jest that I would do so when I had the results that would make him a believer that one can start out with a small amount ($1,000) of investment capital and still create wealth through compounding - jest, just to let you know, prepare to get out your "I'm a believer" hat, lol).

Anyway, since I had some time today, I decided to check back here and after reading David's post, I could see that he is continuing his self-destructive ways, lol, so I decided to post earlier than I wanted.

Since some here were not so happy with my sharing my "testings/experiments" the last time (cuz of my deviations) , I decided to stay off this thread for now until it was time to post to jest my spreadsheet results.

However, like I said, I am not going to post my method here in this thread since people got all riled up the last time, so I will probably post it in my long-lost journal when the time comes to share it (which may be earlier than I expected (since I've further tweaked my method since the last time I posted, I've reset my quantifying starting date to July 1st and wanted to solidify a little more trading days), because David's post made me realize that if I wait too long to share it, he may lose another account, lol).

Anyway, I'll let you guys know when it's ready.

Entered when the PA was already kinda "deep," eh?! lol

No wonder you had to implement rescue

But you always get yourself squared, so no worries about you (although watch that health of yours, you hear?!! *whip*)

Hey leighsww, its great to see you back in the thread, have always found your inputs very helpful and clarifying. Congratulations on finding way that works for you. Hope to see you more often.

Hi, FTI, thank you for your live trades demenstration. A very good case of your MO.

Take care of your health. Wish you have a good day.

David

Welcome back!

I was thinking sending a PM to ask how you doing. Several weeks ago I asked FTI where you had been, he told me you were doing some secret experiement.

OK, thank you for your detailed advice. I will take them. Reduce my scout size, and make it easier.

No blame to anybody or the market, it is my fault: claws got burned again by the scorpion inside myself.

I have to be honest to myself that I have no ability to use high leverage.

David

hi leighsww,great to see you back and again another great posts from you.waiting for your journal!!

Dear fti, where and at what price did you decide to send that squad into battle?
I'm guessing, that it should be lower, than at 1.5914...
Thanks,
fxa

To be honest, this is the only thread I actually read on this factory. I really enjoy it. Thanks fti, leighsww (welcome back), Green_David, Zoran, luSan, lilpip & others for keeping the discussion going.

PS - what a nice day for attack sequences..

Welcome, I missed you.

I keep thinking abour your experimental hedging...I wonder what jest will say...ja

Hi MaMood,

When this was asked I was in the thick of running battle.So the reply was short.

At that point , I was bargaining for better prices, to get into the party.(looking for better entry buys.)
As the bargaining was in progress, I detected subtle advancement in the other kingdoms, so I put a stop buy just in case I hadn't got on board, and the party started.
This is one order strategy, that can be used to acertain to be on board in case of runs.

However as this entails buying or selling into break out zones, You will be disadvantaged in price , not withstanding bad fills. (execution as some would put it) in fast markets.

Some robotic traders like to use this methodology to trade. I must coaution that this methodology is not best practises and should be only used with caution and only when absolutely necessary.

regards

Hi guys!

be aware of the german ZEW Indicator.
It's published at 0900 GMT.
May be EURUSD will get a little more volatile ...

Nice downmove with USDJPY this morning ;-)

@fti:
Thanx for your detailed answer.

Hi Mamood,

Hey , its not like I am going away.
Its just that, trading and handholding others while doing so, is actually very disruptive to mind flows not eithstanding that it is tiring for me. So I wouldn't want to like have to do this too often. Moreover some people likes to say unbecoming things about this activity.

So while you are learning, I shall be around sometimes to help , if there are problems or issues that you may like to enquire sometimes. There's many good people around, and I am sure they would chip in with their thoughts too.

regards

Hi All,

Somethingy off my chest.

Since my introduction to youtube, I have discovered that some of my best liked music is accessible from there, and have discoved some that had eluded me too. In alot of ways , I am like found a new toy . I like this , from the alternative of having to did into my media and collections room, cluttered with so much that it is difficult to find specific items sometimes.
The only downside is that I am becoming a little LoFi. Moreover with times catching up on me my hearing isn't as Hifi as I would like.

But if my posting of my music doesn't hit a chord with you. Please just ignore it.
I just though that I'd share some nice music (at least to me) with you. Music helps me unwind and even boost my feel at times while I trade. I know it isn't for everyone, so its not a prerequsite for trading skills.

regards

Hi fti!

Just a question to your yesterday session:

Your blue marked statement above. Is this not a kind of predicting the furture?

I always have problems to determine between having "some expectations" for the market due to candle formations and so on and predicting the future (You know, the often cited fortune teller...).

How do you draw the line between legitim "market expectations" and "fortune telling"?

Thanx in advance.

Hey Hi Leighsww,

Welcome, sis, missed you much.

Yeah David's been at it again.
Nevermind, He lost money only, His determination to find the answers and his telling us about it, helps some who may need it. In the longer run, I think he'll get his act together.

Sometimes, people tend to overload knowledge, thats when they drift away from basics. His case was baically overconfidence with a dash of exzzzzubrance.
Now , with the $$ gone,, he'll come down from cloud nine, back to earth.

Hey, for you deviating from my MO. That's OK, So long as you hold to the basics, just tweak it as you go along. Use what works for you, and dump what don't.
Like you said, we are all grown up, and we should be able to recognise whats good and whats not.

I am very glad that your book is well and healthy.That means that you are doing right, thats what counts, sis. The bottom line is what really counts.Lots of mumbo jumbo with bad bottom line , means little.

So stay around and help some here, won't you.You know, my exuberance may not be the cup of tea for some. Some here would do good with some whipping and tough love from you.

regards

Hi fxa,
the spot is marked on your chart.
That was a reluctant rescue, as a proper rescue would have been 21 sized.
but thats too much as my undertone was "coil status".
So I added half of exposure to get everyone home. moreover I was running out of clock space.

at the end of the day, and after great lost of hair, all came back fine.

regards

Hi
No MaMood, that was not meant to be predictive. That was my undertone.
based on what i saw in the charts, it was coiling and kingdoms were in conflict. My undertone was that there would be USD bear bias, so I decided to tone off the normal skew of attack and that attck should never go deep unless backed by good foreign capital for ability to risk. Thats why , the attack was mildest as possible. Of course the profitability recipocrates.

If you noticed after the attack, the skew went into level down. That faclitated reacue possibility, otherwise the rescue would be sized up. And even that inward spiral, took risking most of initial profits, to recover.

All trading , insist on traders to have a bias from pattern analysis. This bias , must never be used as "absolute", sometimes the bias is on the ball, sometimes it is off course. This bias should only impact the basic strategising of MO and MM, and must never dominate "dance"( ryhthm ) nor "form" nor trader emotions. It is a function of strategy.

The latter must come from the price gyrations and the point of reference for that is in the "NOW". Now , does not mean only price,althought it is of grave importance. It incooperates the price and mode of gyration (movement). It is hard to describe, you have to be in to feel it.

You have to be on live to understand, reading will do little for understanding. If you were following the trades, try recontructing the trade mindset and sequenses of events again, it would be meaningless.


regards

Theres been a nice run.
It will be intresting to see what ny session brings.