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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #100,821
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:22pm Jul 14, 2008 7:22pm
Yen liquidating for sure below current angle not a bunch of support everyone will fold teir hand is my guess
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #100,822
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:24pm Jul 14, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting lilmoe
COME ON QUECEE!!!! all the analysis i posted last weekend and last week, did the price really change from where it was back then??

anyway, here's a couple more charts to describe how things "changed", i could be wrong of course. and to add to that, we do have a buy signal on this thread's 4h strategy

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Buy signal is not valid.
QQE's are mixed and Daily is crossed down.
Also (and I borrowed this from Quecee) price has not been able to close above Daily 21SMA for 12 days.
JMVHO
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  • #100,823
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:25pm Jul 14, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting lilmoe
COME ON QUECEE!!!! all the analysis i posted last weekend and last week, did the price really change from where it was back then??

anyway, here's a couple more charts to describe how things "changed", i could be wrong of course. and to add to that, we do have a buy signal on this thread's 4h strategy

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lilmoe
i work on CHF cross
but attention we have seen GJ with a range 60 pips since in the two past weeks .we need confirmation for long
i think high probabilitywith short
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  • #100,824
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:29pm Jul 14, 2008 7:29pm
Quoting lilmoe
COME ON QUECEE!!!! all the analysis i posted last weekend and last week, did the price really change from where it was back then??

anyway, here's a couple more charts to describe how things "changed", i could be wrong of course. and to add to that, we do have a buy signal on this thread's 4h strategy

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I think you are right. When people get impatient they aren't making 100+ pips a day on a trend, they think it must go down. It'll go up, and when it does, you'll have 500+ pips , when people trying sell at 214, or no, that didn't work, how about 215, ect.
  • #100,825
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:29pm Jul 14, 2008 7:29pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Buy signal is not valid.
QQE's are mixed and Daily is crossed down.
Also (and I borrowed this from Quecee) price has not been able to close above Daily 21SMA for 12 days.
JMVHO

Quoting quecee5
Good night bro and good luck on that long trade - I mean that!

Btw, that's not a buy signal it a topping signal. . . 1hr and 4hr are pointing south bro. The top would have been a good place to go short. . . JMHO!

See ya later. . .

thanks for the advice fellas i really appreciate it. but i bet u guys know how stubborn i am, looooool. anyway. the loss that i would encounter is accounted for and not big. so i'll take my chances.

good night again
  • #100,826
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:32pm Jul 14, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting lilmoe
thanks for the advice fellas i really appreciate it. but i bet u guys know how stubborn i am, looooool. anyway. the loss that i would encounter is accounted for and not big. so i'll take my chances.

good night again
Good night bro and good luck. . .
  • #100,827
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:34pm Jul 14, 2008 7:34pm
Quoting pipdiddy
u kidding right? or is this Chinese telephone?
don't care my post ...posted true ..then it's false.. posted false then it's true....

Kidding
  • #100,828
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:37pm Jul 14, 2008 7:37pm
Quoting Clouds
I think you are right. When people get impatient they aren't making 100+ pips a day on a trend, they think it must go down. It'll go up, and when it does, you'll have 500+ pips , when people trying sell at 214, or no, that didn't work, how about 215, ect.
Bro, I'm looking at my charts and they don't say buy anywhere, it says price has tooped out and it just a matter of time before the selling pressure increases. . .

But heh, trade your chart that's the only way we learm how to become better traders and that's to learn from our own experience. . .

  • #100,829
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:38pm Jul 14, 2008 7:38pm
after BOJ Press Conference ,direction will be clear for GJ
  • #100,830
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:43pm Jul 14, 2008 7:43pm
maybe
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...hic&refer=home
  • #100,831
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:44pm Jul 14, 2008 7:44pm
Quoting Clouds
I'm one that thinks the UJ won't break the 106 figure. It's a new trend , and UJ may not just give up after 1,000 pips. At 105, same situation occurred, people were trying send it down to 100. Many are trading on the fact that 106 won't break.
It will break sooner than u think bro. . .
Just take a look at what's going on ar'd the globe.
Economic data ain't looking to pretty these days. US is in a true recession and there is nothing the feds can do to stop this credit crisis mess.
There are more financial institution that will come forward and the gov. won't be able to bail all of them out. . . This is a serious problem and gov can continue to live in a bubble but sooner or later the bubble will burst!
  • #100,832
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:46pm Jul 14, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting quecee5
Bro, I'm looking at my charts and they don't say buy anywhere, it says price has tooped out and it just a matter of time before the selling pressure increases. . .

But heh, trade your chart that's the only way we learm how to become better traders and that's to learn from our own experience. . .

Ok, but I'll share my thoughts why. I see buys, unless it crosses the TL, it made it across the 20 SMA on weekly, now trying cross the 40 SMA, just because it hasn't crossed, I still see up trend, it's a V shaped pair, down then up. P.S. I don't trade fundamentals, charts should show them already
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  • #100,833
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:53pm Jul 14, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting Clouds
Ok, but I'll share my thoughts why. I see buys, unless it crosses the TL, it made it across the 20 SMA on weekly, now trying cross the 40 SMA, just because it hasn't crossed, I still see up trend, it's a V shaped pair, down then up. P.S. I don't trade fundamentals, charts should show them already
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Good analysis bro and I respect your opinion. . .
We can agree to disagree and see how it plays out in the coming sessions.

Cheers
  • #100,834
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:57pm Jul 14, 2008 7:57pm
Nikkei down 202 pts in less than an hour.
U/Y WILL break 106.00 tonight.
U/Y Daily QQE just crossed down and crossed 50 line.
Very bearish.

I do believe we will probably see Black Monday tomorrow.

Just got put off one day.....
  • #100,835
  • Jul 14, 2008 8:02pm Jul 14, 2008 8:02pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Nikkei down 202 pts in less than an hour.
U/Y WILL break 106.00 tonight.
U/Y Daily QQE just crossed down and crossed 50 line.
Very bearish.

I do believe we will probably see Black Monday tomorrow.

Just got put off one day.....
Bro, I'm glad u see it too - The writing is all over the walls screaming!
ZL Stoch. on all TF's are pointing south very bearish!
  • #100,836
  • Jul 14, 2008 8:12pm Jul 14, 2008 8:12pm
weekly stochastics starting to turn down as well. indicator already in overbought territory (around 88-90). Will just need to cross down past the signal line for confirmation.
  • #100,837
  • Jul 14, 2008 8:14pm Jul 14, 2008 8:14pm
Good luck everyone in your trades today.
I'll see chat with everyone 2morrow. . .

  • #100,838
  • Jul 14, 2008 8:19pm Jul 14, 2008 8:19pm
alright. here's what i think.
we have 2 dojis on weekly followed by another small body candle, all three sitting right at the level of a stubborn resistance. we also have a huge bearish divergence on the weekly chart. this says, no wait, it actually screams that we MUST see another drop, sooner or later... but we're talking about the weekly chart, and this could take a LOT to mature.
now for who wants to go long and target significantly above 214, i suggest you take a look at the naked weekly chart from the very beginning (i believe it's january 1978) and try to find 2 dojis in the middle of an uptrend. i couldn't find any.
ok, let's go lower to daily: regular bearish divergence. not confirmed, though. price is testing the supporting trend line.
i won't even bother looking at h4 chart until we see price either above 212.50 or below 210.20. what we have now is a terrible range. i really don't get how can any of you say that it has chances to break to the upside or downside... based on h4? come on!
my point is: bearish bias, but based on higher timeframes. everybody is waiting for a drop, so i have a hunch that big boys will push this range further into the very beginning of august. and then it will drop, but not before a nice fat stop loss hunt.
that's it. set your alarms, keep your stop loss tight and don't chicken out.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #100,839
  • Edited 8:37pm Jul 14, 2008 8:24pm | Edited 8:37pm
Quoting Scrat
alright. here's what i think.
we have 2 dojis on weekly followed by another small body candle, all three sitting right at the level of a stubborn resistance. we also have a huge bearish divergence on the weekly chart. this says, no wait, it actually screams that we MUST see another drop, sooner or later... but we're talking about the weekly chart, and this could take a LOT to mature.
now for who wants to go long and target significantly above 214, i suggest you take a look at the naked weekly chart from the very beginning (i believe it's january 1978) and try to find 2 dojis in the middle of an uptrend. i couldn't find any.
ok, let's go lower to daily: regular bearish divergence. not confirmed, though. price is testing the supporting trend line.
i won't even bother looking at h4 chart until we see price either above 212.50 or below 210.20. what we have now is a terrible range. i really don't get how can any of you say that it has chances to break to the upside or downside... based on h4? come on!
my point is: bearish bias, but based on higher timeframes. everybody is waiting for a drop, so i have a hunch that big boys will push this range further into the very beginning of august. and then it will drop, but not before a nice fat stop loss hunt.
that's it. set your alarms, keep your stop loss tight and don't chicken out.

Well said Scrat, it cost them nothing to buy sell the line for as long as they need to kill the time needed for such a movment


Another thing to note is on a weekly chart for a W4 to be even remotely ready to meet its criteria 5 35 5 macd signal must at very least cross zero for conditions to be met, myself i see no big drop until that condition has been at least met which is weeks out yet or a powerful move north for a week to move such indicator.

Good pair to demo trade imo


another thing this could end up a very complex wave 4 lasting for years within its range or wherever it tops and the current low LT FLat maybe
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #100,840
  • Jul 14, 2008 8:59pm Jul 14, 2008 8:59pm
I'm out of the GJ trade for another 50 pips with nice size lots. Gotta love the range. . . Until it breaks either way I'm on the side lines waiting for price to top out and stall again to go short as long as it trades under 212.30.

A close above 212.30 will see a re-test of 213.91 or a break below 209.39 will target 204/202 area. . . We will see a break soon IMO and my bias is to the down side. . .
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