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Trading Aussie Jacko Style

  • #181
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:25am Jul 11, 2008 7:25am
Yeah, you didnt specify so I have it on close...will have a look now, so they are both on hi low/2?
Never say never.
  • #182
  • Edited 11:05am Jul 11, 2008 7:46am | Edited 11:05am
Quoting razldazl
Ok just updating progress for this month, we were -73, and this trade currently has +45 locked in, and is still running. So -28 for the month at the mo

current trade was a buy at 0.9550, market has moved up to 0.9640, so my sl is at 0.9595, = 45 pips locked in.
sl moved to 0.9632, so +82 now, makes this months total -73+82= +9 for the month if Im knocked out now...
update two: high of 0.9707, so sl at 0.9662, +112 locked in, +39 for month
update 3: knocked out at 0.9671, +121

month to date total = +48
Never say never.
  • #183
  • Jul 11, 2008 12:48pm Jul 11, 2008 12:48pm
I closed my long position @ 0.9605.( and yes the pair continue up to 0.9720 ) I then open a short position @ 0.9602 with 2 lots and sl @ 0.9652. I thought that the long spike up was a head fake, but it wasn't so got my head handed to me, still learning. I am referring to wednesday night.

So today I think I got "lucky" so far for, now. I short the aud/usd @ 0.9696, and @ 0.9700 and finally @ 0.9707 for 2 lots each for a total of 6 lots.

Price is @ 0.9662, the "old high", which now is acting as support. Basically I have recovered my losses. I feels good to be even, now.

Targets: #1 @ 0.9567 and #2 @ 0.9522 - 50% fib. #

I know that the aussie bulls believe that the mrkt is still long. That is what target #1 covers. If the mrkt does find support there, I believe this could be seen as a "higher low"?

If the mrkt breaks belows target #2, 0.9522 the 50% fib. #. Would the mrkt still be view as being long?
  • #184
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:55pm Jul 11, 2008 7:55pm
Quoting phloid
I closed my long position @ 0.9605.( and yes the pair continue up to 0.9720 ) I then open a short position @ 0.9602 with 2 lots and sl @ 0.9652. I thought that the long spike up was a head fake, but it wasn't so got my head handed to me, still learning. I am referring to wednesday night.

So today I think I got "lucky" so far for, now. I short the aud/usd @ 0.9696, and @ 0.9700 and finally @ 0.9707 for 2 lots each for a total of 6 lots.

Price is @ 0.9662, the "old high", which now is acting as support. Basically I have recovered my losses. I feels good to be even, now.

Targets: #1 @ 0.9567 and #2 @ 0.9522 - 50% fib. #

I know that the aussie bulls believe that the mrkt is still long. That is what target #1 covers. If the mrkt does find support there, I believe this could be seen as a "higher low"?

If the mrkt breaks belows target #2, 0.9522 the 50% fib. #. Would the mrkt still be view as being long?

Hi phloid

Raz began this thread for those who want to discuss trading the Aussie by the method developed by Jacko. I'd suggest you read this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286. After having done so, you will realise that the Jacko method is a trend-following strategy, not a swing trading method looking for reversals against the prevailing trend.

Not having a go at you mate and hope you don't take offense at my response - just wanting to refer you to one of the best education sources about forex trading you will ever come across.

Regards

TZ
  • #185
  • Edited 3:25am Jul 12, 2008 3:24am | Edited 3:25am
Quoting TraderZer0
Hi phloid

Raz began this thread for those who want to discuss trading the Aussie by the method developed by Jacko. I'd suggest you read this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286. After having done so, you will realise that the Jacko method is a trend-following strategy, not a swing trading method looking for reversals against the prevailing trend.

Not having a go at you mate and hope you don't take offense at my response - just wanting to refer you to one of the best education sources about forex trading you will ever come across.

Regards

TZ
I wont be shorting this market any time soon. The US dollar is in baaaad shape. Raz
ps I may get in long again at 0.9650 if I get a chance....
Never say never.
  • #186
  • Jul 12, 2008 1:18pm Jul 12, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting TraderZer0
Hi phloid

Raz began this thread for those who want to discuss trading the Aussie by the method developed by Jacko. I'd suggest you read this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286. After having done so, you will realise that the Jacko method is a trend-following strategy, not a swing trading method looking for reversals against the prevailing trend.

Not having a go at you mate and hope you don't take offense at my response - just wanting to refer you to one of the best education sources about forex trading you will ever come across.

Regards

TZ
So sorry, and thanks!
  • #187
  • Jul 13, 2008 11:44am Jul 13, 2008 11:44am
Raz asked me to post my 3 chart sequence I posted basically live / as it happened to my journal over at the James16 site here as well.

So here goes. Be aware this has nothing to do with jacko's approach and only the BUOB at the very low was the PA bit.


The desc. TL break and the top / origin of the TL as target are more "common TA" tools or perhaps it's just from my creative trading.

Please also be aware this is the 1h timeframe. This is not something you should be on at ALL if you haven't mastered profitability on daily and 4h yet.
Please also ignore the "pretty colored lines" on the chart, they play no part here.


This trade actually ended up going another 50+ pips(original target was set to around +30) to 0.9700(actually 0.9715) from around 15-20 pips stop with spread.

Depending on your approach (set TP vs trailing with trend) you would have gotten one or the other(there was a PB at peak as exit signal as well - PA entry to PA exit constellations are the best thing to happen instead of blind/dead drops. Exit at PB trigger would have made around +70).

As you will notice from the note on the chart, I don't believe in "pips", but in return and percentages, which is why I labeled it as a potential 1:2.5 trade to the set target. If you set a target, you set a limit to your profits. If you let them run, you don't. If you let them run unchecked, you also don't set a limit to how much you give back.

Just some additional free food for thought

That'll be two moccha lattes and one week at Mallorca Beach&Clubhouse in 2009 please
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #188
  • Jul 13, 2008 1:11pm Jul 13, 2008 1:11pm
OK, thanks for those...so where would your stop be now then out of curiosity, if you hadnt taken profit...below the 50 fib of the BUOB, something like that? At the mo Im using a 45 tsl, which works fine, except in times when we have a quick run up, which of course pulls back equally hard...but you cant have it all can you? Mallorca Beach Club you say? Righto, just down the road, I mean coast...
Never say never.
  • #189
  • Jul 13, 2008 2:15pm Jul 13, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting razldazl
OK, thanks for those...so where would your stop be now then out of curiosity, if you hadnt taken profit...
I can only think of the above options. If you rule those out, you would have to come up with a trailing stop that has proven functional for you and it will be wherever that says accordingly.

Quote
Mallorca Beach Club you say? Righto, just down the road, I mean coast...

Coolies, have the beach chairs ready for when I come around
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #190
  • Jul 13, 2008 10:44pm Jul 13, 2008 10:44pm
bigger picture
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  • #191
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:06am Jul 14, 2008 7:06am
Quoting TraderZer0
Hi phloid

Raz began this thread for those who want to discuss trading the Aussie by the method developed by Jacko. I'd suggest you read this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286. After having done so, you will realise that the Jacko method is a trend-following strategy, not a swing trading method looking for reversals against the prevailing trend.

Not having a go at you mate and hope you don't take offense at my response - just wanting to refer you to one of the best education sources about forex trading you will ever come across.

Regards

TZ

Hi all,

An interesting thread...

I don't trade the AUD/USD but I personally think that given the resource (iron ore and coal) boom currently taking place in the world, especially the huge rampant demand from China...

Combine that with the problems in the US and it would be a very safe bet to say that the AUD will be at parity with the USD very soon.

The only issue is where to buy in...the current price of 0.9683 is too high (dangerous).



.
.
  • #192
  • Edited 10:35am Jul 14, 2008 8:38am | Edited 10:35am
Well, I did some study on VaR with Euro.
Given the nature of currencies, they don't fluctuate as much as stocks.
Over 90% of the time Euro has a daily range within 1.5%.
That translates to 238 pips.

On the other hand, 1.5% in Aussie is only 145 pips. (I've not done VaR with Aussie so this figure could be wrong)



So if you're not comfortable with Euro's volatility, Aussie is a decent alternative.
Take a report.
  • #193
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:55pm Jul 14, 2008 2:55pm

hi guys , hope you are doing fine

What do you think the effect of the RBA meeting minutes would be on the AUD/USD ?

right now the pair is consolidating around 0.9716-20

All opinions are much appreciated !
  • #194
  • Jul 14, 2008 3:15pm Jul 14, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting jacko
Hi all,

An interesting thread...

I don't trade the AUD/USD but I personally think that given the resource (iron ore and coal) boom currently taking place in the world, especially the huge rampant demand from China...

Combine that with the problems in the US and it would be a very safe bet to say that the AUD will be at parity with the USD very soon.

.
.
The only issue is where to buy in...the current price of 0.9683 is too high (dangerous).

Looking forward to your analysis if you feel like posting it..., Raz
Never say never.
  • #195
  • Jul 14, 2008 5:01pm Jul 14, 2008 5:01pm
I am also back to this thread, after leaving it for a while to join the Turtles and read Jacko's blog and try to understand his methodology and way of thinking.
Raz, great job you did here, firstly for starting the thread and secondly for how you apply Jacko method here, I really like it. A bit more aggressive, but profitable.

Now, looking back at my previous posts here, I cant help but smile when I see the aggressiveness and naivety with which I wanted to enter the market at any time and level possible. Thanks to Jacko, I am starting to become more patient and relaxed and just wait for bargains, as he says.

Looking for an entry now... but a bit confused... I would think a great bargain would be buying at .9600 with a stop at 9550, below the TL, hence safe...but I dont know if the market will get that deep. So I think a buy at .9650 is more reasonable on the expectation that the price should go up pretty fast due to the recent crisis in the US.
Attached Image
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #196
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:56pm Jul 14, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting jacko
Hi all,

An interesting thread...

I don't trade the AUD/USD but I personally think that given the resource (iron ore and coal) boom currently taking place in the world, especially the huge rampant demand from China...

Combine that with the problems in the US and it would be a very safe bet to say that the AUD will be at parity with the USD very soon.

The only issue is where to buy in...the current price of 0.9683 is too high (dangerous).



.
.
Thanks for taking an interest in this thread Jacko. I guess if .9683 is too high, then .9670 is also too high (my entry yesterday.) Gulp!
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  • #197
  • Jul 14, 2008 8:13pm Jul 14, 2008 8:13pm
Aussie minutes out in 20 minutes, let's see where it goes
  • #198
  • Jul 15, 2008 7:07am Jul 15, 2008 7:07am
sadly, the price where I wanted to buy yesterday is probably history, and with this crazy rally to the upside, I think aussie will make only shallow retracements these days. I will place a buy limit at .9780 (50 fib of the last wave up) with stop at 9730 below the TL on the 1 H chart.

Quoting gagiul
Looking for an entry now... but a bit confused... I would think a great bargain would be buying at .9600 with a stop at 9550, below the TL, hence safe...but I dont know if the market will get that deep. So I think a buy at .9650 is more reasonable on the expectation that the price should go up pretty fast due to the recent crisis in the US.
Attached Image
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #199
  • Jul 15, 2008 7:20am Jul 15, 2008 7:20am
Im vaguely looking at the 0.9760 area as well, then lower down the 0.9650 area, but really hard to know if we arent going to take off and never come back. Same story with eur really. It would be really irresponsable to jump in at these levels so we will have to just be patient. Patience is a virtue patience is a virtue patience is a virtue.....A nice spike down to get us in would be nice
Be careful out there today with Bernie and co speaking in less than an hour things could get crazy. Raz
Never say never.
  • #200
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:28am Jul 15, 2008 11:28am
so now what!! panic!! when should we buy?? now? tomorrow? yesterday?

I dont see from where to catch a good entry

The only thing I now is that was a mistake to close my trades when it was at 0.9600, 100 pips profit and 50% growth of my micro account, is good, I'm not complaining, but when I come from work and I see it 200 pips far from the highest in history price... you know how it feels
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