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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,321
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:04am Jul 14, 2008 2:04am
Quoting fti
hey lilpip,
what have you been doing, sitting on your scout?

regards

Just that you know , eagle eyes now, London boys are coming in soon. watch for action.

Notice cable yen crosses in progress.
Entry on stealth mode.

watch it, USD bears in action now. 1st wave
yes, probably hit it real hard for 40 pips then see what we have
9865-9820==45
  • #3,322
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:11am Jul 14, 2008 2:11am
Quoting lilpip
yes, probably hit it real hard for 40 pips
9865-9820==45
refrain from predictive dreaming, watch it for form.
  • #3,323
  • Edited 2:31am Jul 14, 2008 2:13am | Edited 2:31am
Quoting fti
refrain from predictive dreaming, watch it for form.
check
I feel like I'm fishen waiting for this thing to bite.
I felt somethin
I put that fishin in check to .Back to the battle zone this is draging out to long.
  • #3,324
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:25am Jul 14, 2008 2:25am
Green_David, would it play out if you had extra $10k in the account and would not hit MC?
  • #3,325
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:27am Jul 14, 2008 2:27am
E/U
BOT x 1 x 1.5875
  • #3,326
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:34am Jul 14, 2008 2:34am
Quoting piccolo
Green_David, would it play out if you had extra $10k in the account and would not hit MC?
With only axtra of $500, it would not hit the MC.

The point is not how much with more funds, the point is position size out of control. MM mistakes besides wrong trading direction. With proper MM, even wrong trading direction, it will do some harm but definately not a disaster.

Regards.
  • #3,327
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:35am Jul 14, 2008 2:35am
Hi all , new here to post a message , been following the thread n the teaching for a while , just gonna say hi
looks like many dancing in tune for the dollar bear ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,328
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:40am Jul 14, 2008 2:40am
Quoting fti
David,
you are wrong,
trading is the most natural business, esp markets as it is freely traded.
There is no conflicts at all, its all your MO, thats confusing you.
You are confusing yourself.
Crisis is opportunity in adversity, you are chinese, you must know this, should you?
Steadfast in riding and manouvers.esp to MO.
nimble to change.
Prompt actions when the time window opportunities opens.
Patience when the terrain is unclear.
Confidence in your analitical ability and contingency capacity.
Ability to subdue ego, and follow the markets lead and hints.
Guts - Ability to risk without panic and disorientation.
Conservative when in doubt or when position is adverse.

Where is the conflict?,
You have conflict because your skills may be unpolished.

Enough of hammering, reason with the man in the mirror.


regards
Suddenly I remember a poem;"不識廬山真面目，只緣身在此山中" (Unaware of true face of Lushan Montain, because you are inside of that mountain.)

Regards.

David
  • #3,329
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:41am Jul 14, 2008 2:41am
do not chase in size, watch that USD/YEN.
may be usd bear trap, be nimble.
remember we are still in USD daily chart coil.

USD/Yen buckling.
pressure from cable
  • #3,330
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:44am Jul 14, 2008 2:44am
Quoting fti
do not chase in size, watch that USD/YEN.
may be usd bear trap, be nimble.
remember we are still in USD daily chart coil.
failed to break 106.7 , being very nimble only , dow futures lookin good
scout averaged on 106.6 , i hope it is alright to be so conservative even in scouting ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,331
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:51am Jul 14, 2008 2:51am
Greenbag bear loosing steam, within coil, lickly insideday range play.
watch your position sizing.
3 kdm out of line, no trend.

If mkt sweeps, I shall be off line, watch you own behind, pls
  • #3,332
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:58am Jul 14, 2008 2:58am
Were not moving as fast as I would like closing added positions in profit and leaving scout in.
I'm getting overly tired and need of a couple hrs sleep.
  • #3,333
  • Jul 14, 2008 3:06am Jul 14, 2008 3:06am
Quoting fti
Greenbag bear loosing steam, within coil, lickly insideday range play.
watch your position sizing.
3 kdm out of line, no trend.

If mkt sweeps, I shall be off line, watch you own behind, pls
not in sync probably due to ppi input for gbp in half an hour ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,334
  • Jul 14, 2008 3:12am Jul 14, 2008 3:12am
E/U
S x 1 x 1.5885

got lucky, squared now.
  • #3,335
  • Jul 14, 2008 3:18am Jul 14, 2008 3:18am
Quoting Green_David
With only axtra of $500, it would not hit the MC.

The point is not how much with more funds, the point is position size out of control. MM mistakes besides wrong trading direction. With proper MM, even wrong trading direction, it will do some harm but definately not a disaster.

Regards.
I mean if you could get the money and your head back online you could get out sooner or later. $500 or $5000 doesnt make a difference. You might have to do 2 more rescue ops.. but of course it should never have gone so far. This is why I leave a lot of extra troops in reserve.
  • #3,336
  • Jul 14, 2008 6:40am Jul 14, 2008 6:40am
Quoting fti
Hi Rap,
Killing scouts is not a good way to "dance".
Its function is to keep focus on market activity, as a conduit for market form, if you like.
Its positioning is of no consiquense to trade but to lead.
If scout is dead in waters, it is allowed to bleed. The followup action when bleeding stops is subjected to its position and the voli of the markets, the higher the voli, ad the sigma, the more likely it is that the scout would be replaced by a new party.On low voli intrutions, the scout is benchmark for attack.

Like youmentioned, indiscriminate killing of scouts is rigid mindset, in so far as my MO is concerned.

regards.
fti,
Understand...thanks. I will try to loosen-up a bit.
Rap
  • #3,337
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:19am Jul 14, 2008 7:19am
@ David

Quoting Green_David

The trading is an unnatual business. Full of conflicting ideas:
Hi David, I have learnt not to take that trade if I feel like that.

I thank you for sharing your mistake and then everybody's input on it, it has helped me to evaluate my self too.
  • #3,338
  • Edited 7:35am Jul 14, 2008 7:19am | Edited 7:35am
Hi,
What a balls breaking day, nothings moving.
Freddie and fannie Mae seems to be the talk of town,
For the time being , the USD bulls seems to have much ammo.
Whether they will behave is to be recon from the charts.
Bewary that the ground may be shifting to bull USD for a little time.
Oil prices stabilises,?? funny.
The equity market like to take the bull by its horns.
Wonder whether this is true bull or just BS.
The coil continues.

Oh,,,, patience, and its virtues, not even enough range to scalp.
Thank God, I had to run some errands, would have overload on the coffee, otherwise.

Trade well, hope the markets moves. One way or another.

regards
  • #3,339
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:46am Jul 14, 2008 7:46am
Quoting fti
Just for info, You will know when I am angry at you.
When I refuse to speak to you, then I will actually be angry.
Now it all makes sense!

I just finished reading the tunnel book over the weekend. It wasn't a very well written book I must admit and when I first started I found myself falling asleep but I pushed through and managed to finish it.

It seems to have some important messages within it. Also, I suspect Gann gave some clues with regard to his trading style. He seemed to emphasise cycles and I suspect he managed to determine major trend turning points and congestion areas but he would otherwise just follow the trend it seems.

Also, a one world government lead by the US - isn't that part of the conspiracy theory? Is that a prophecy within the bible?
  • #3,340
  • Edited 8:15am Jul 14, 2008 7:50am | Edited 8:15am
Is e/u in first wave as it comes out of 5841?
Why I ask is because I dont think I could recognize one when I see one, but from previous posts I need to learn to.
fti, thanks for the heads up on 1st wave earlier.
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