Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

welcome here budd http://qsmile.com/qsimages/83.gif

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2087623

found it here on FF



thanks breizhfx

Good luck bro...

hm, thats more then my 187,5

Whats your target for GU at end of summer, please ?

GU 1.75, UJ 100. The US economy is in the middle of collapse, but the UK economy is going to be on rocket headed straight to hell.

thank you markam, i read your posts last summer, where you forecasted big drop for GBP/Jpy. You got very very good fundamental insight.

I´m with you.

Thank you for posting, i hope you will be here more time.

1.83 is 38.2% of the move up
1.74 is 50% of the move up
The move up being an 8 year uptrend. 1.93 has to go before a serious down move can be considered in play, its looking good though, cable has been stuck on the lower up-trend channel all year.

Can't post charts, 'manage attachments' button has vanished.

naked line chart, h4. no breakout yet.

I have similar targets for the cable not quite as eager as yours straight away but over time prolly even lower

same chart, candlesticks. nice fake breakout.
but we have another upper trend line which should provide some resistance; above it, price would test 212.90 resistance first - upper channel line.

would have to agree. Let's watch sterling fall

GU broke out of this nice channel. The successful close above the 38.2 fib was a good trade. Having broke out of the channel where is GU headed to now?

In the second chart we see that GU just about hit the 88 fib and a daily trendline (red), which has been in place since Sep 07. The 3rd chart is a zoomed out picture of that trend line.

Given the fundamentals of the 'Mae issues and the US economy and that the trendline was touched in such recent succession I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks. Let's see.

good to see your post more often again markam.

how the heck did I become a senior member? I'm still a newb.

Some analysis on GJ. Case 1 (weekly). Is it the price will able to challenge up and break the up resistance line. If yes. then i enter wif TP near Fibo 61.8.

Case 2 (daily). If price break thru down resistance line then i shall go bear wif TP at fibo 38.2 and 50.

Trading long term and following a monthly trendline........

On 8/01/98 we hit a high @ ~240.35

25 months later on 9/01/00 it bottomed @ ~147.72

that's a healthy 9,263 pips drop!

Following a monthly trendline

On 7/01/07 we hit a high @ ~251.09

25 months later on 8/01/09 will we bottom again
and hit the lower channel trendline @ ~ 178.90?

That ~7,219 pips

See you late next summer.

Trading this pair any other way is too stressful.

Dr. D

Well, I'm more conservative... will we hit the 170's in 9/08 or 9/09?

Reading your projection it would be prudent to put an alarm on my PC
with a bull horn to sound when we breach 180.

Dr. D.

hello everyone. hope everyone's having a good weekend

here's some analysis i've been posting for some time now.

i still think we're going up. 216 is the very least IMO. i say that depending on FEs in my weekly/monthly analysis. 220+ is not an impossible target before a fall (50% of the fall from 250-192, and 61.8 of the fall from 241 to 192). A HUGE FALL will occur after that. some analysts say that the fall will happen unless 228 is taken out which is the 61.8 of 250-192. NOW if and when the fall takes place, then target WILL be 174. FE 23.6 of this monthly chart. notice where i placed low-high-higherlow on the chart. the red TL i drew from points i think to be correct. last month DID close above that TL. i also included a weekly zoom in for a clearer picture of what THAT TL is doing. Usually, GJ tends to do this around TLs, close to Cable. but i'm thinking FE 61.8 at 217.25 (doesn't have to be a spot on hit, but close), if FE 61.8 is rejected BAD, then from there the destination would be 204 again.





here's another weekly chart describing FEs of the fall. u guys can see where i placed my FE setup. price, during the fall, have successfully made it to FE 127.2, and price reaching 161.8 is arguable, there is a 230 pip difference, some consider that as a "level reached", some don't. but either way, after watching how price acts around FEs i noticed that GJ (and lot of other pairs) tend to go back to FE 78.6 before continuing its direction. FE 78.6 is around 216.40 area. i have seen price go all the way back to 61.8 and 50.0 which doesn't affect it's major direction. BUT when this happens, price doesn't only go back to FE 161.8 it tends to visit FE 200 at 177.x area.

here's a weekly chart and a daily zoom in. if price goes back to 209.50-60 i will buy targeting 216 area. hope that makes sense. on the daily zoom in, some books consider the marked blue area as a congestion zone, and considering that possibility, a possible scenario would be as follows (by the book):

 

1. a false breakout opposite to the previous direction of the trend (which WAS up), and i'm guessing this area to be a bit lower than 209.5,
2. then a reversal back to the same direction of the trend (213.50 area)
3. then back down testing 211.50-212 area,
4. then up to 216 and most possibly higher.

that's IF this area truly is a congestion zone (but those pinbars on the dailies are saying that this is only a 50/50 chance).


charts:

having said what i said, there's another possibility. another chart i've been positing. FE 127.2 has been reached, price is REJECTING FE 100. BUT if that's taken out, then it's just like i said, a possibility to visit FE 78.6 around 208 area. then back up to FE 161.8 or even FE 200.0. HOWEVER, there is lots of support that is preventing price from going back down there, first, the monthly/weekly trendline i mentioned in the previous post, second the support marked in this daily chart (blue TL and FE 100.0, and also that blue congestion zone).

yes i have seen some rare instances where price being satisfied with pullback to FE 100 after bouncing from FE 127.2.

yes peaches
as always markam's viewpoint is very good.
the U.S.D was the first an offering to the idol by an economic slowdown and credit crunch and FED has been more aggressive After seven straight cuts totally 3.25 percentage points since September then its european peers in cutting borrowing costs .
with look in play divergence in growth and interest rate cycles ,maybe maybe this was a key reason behind the big rally in treasurys last year...
i think a real players is Treasurys in FX market in the next months.
conditions regretful of U.S.D maybe stage a strong comeback for in the next months ,with new viewpoint of investors and players markets on its rebound against the EURO and the CABLE no SUSHI .
1-economic data are suggesting that the EURO-ZONE and U.K aren't immune to the U.S downturn .
2-my viewpoint about hike rate by ECB:this hike rate by ECB is mistake because with push inflation pressures we will see a slowdown growth in the EURO-ZONE and .....
3-raising the likelihood of recession in EURO and U.K
4-raising the likelihood of cut rates by ECB and BOE in the next time
5-with cut rates by ECB and BOE we will see change in the yield curve.
6- on the other hand ,with a rebound in U.S growth and rising inflation pressures we must wait for a hike rate by FED,with a hike rate by FED ,Bonds' value tends to increase .
attention we have seen in debt markets in U.S and Japan that the market has not yet priced .
my consideration is if the U.K moving into recession and also the EURO-ZONE ,we will see Bonds in these countries will outperform U.S . and Japan Treasurys .
now with attention above cases :
we will see EURUSD IN 1.50XX OR 1.48XX in the next weeks also GBPUSD IN 1.90XX OR 1.85XX but USDYEN IN 102.XX OR 103.XX
FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
in the weekly candle chart GJ we see a bearish tri star candlestick pattern
this is interesting since three past weeks open and close price were only in range 40 pips.at any rate this pattern is very rare .
i can not find this pattern since 1999 till this time .
i see below 200.xx or even make a new low for GJ
HAVE A GOOD WEEK FOR BEAR CAMP
BEAT REGARDS
HUSSIN