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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #801
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:10pm Feb 7, 2007 12:10pm
Hi Steviet,
I really like the sound of your system. Basically because of the simplicity and time it takes. But, the main question i have as some others have had, is the entry. Do you enter off the price of the close of the last candle or the open of the new candle? AND, how do you determine which way to go with the trade. It can really be confusing especially when the market is ranging like it is now. I totally understand where you put your stop losses and how it gains pips. It kinda is the same target points as the RSI Daily method. I want to try this on a demo but, I kinda need to know which way to go with the order when I place it? Thank you.
  • #802
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:24pm Feb 7, 2007 12:24pm
Quoting broc0501
Hi Steviet,
I really like the sound of your system. Basically because of the simplicity and time it takes. But, the main question i have as some others have had, is the entry. Do you enter off the price of the close of the last candle or the open of the new candle? AND, how do you determine which way to go with the trade. It can really be confusing especially when the market is ranging like it is now. I totally understand where you put your stop losses and how it gains pips. It kinda is the same target points as the RSI Daily method. I want to try this on a demo but, I kinda need to know which way to go with the order when I place it? Thank you.
My entries are based on my limited knowledge of candlestick patterns and also price action. I enter as the daily bar closes and the new one opens with my broker, which is 10pm gmt, not midnight gmt like some other brokers. In this tight ranging market it has been a nightmare because in a lot of cases the market went the way predicted for the first day & then reversed the next before I could lock in any profit. Often, even when ranging you can pic up some pips before the pair reverses on you but it has been too tight a range these last couple of weeks

By the way peeps, attached is a chart of today's prices which look really weird to me - don't know if I've ever seen a day when 16 out of 17 pairs are currently up on the open price. Maybe I should have just gone long on all 17 pairs last night & taken the pips now

Kind Regards
Steve
Attached Image
  • #803
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:36pm Feb 7, 2007 12:36pm
deff not a lot of correlation going on today... Great for me cause I was long eur, short gbp, long chf, and long jpy and there all in the green

not to mention a few others...
  • #804
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:40pm Feb 7, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting turbokaos
deff not a lot of correlation going on today... Great for me cause I was long eur, short gbp, long chf, and long jpy and there all in the green

not to mention a few others...
Sounds like you had a great day then

I'll catch you - you know I will hehe

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #805
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:44pm Feb 7, 2007 12:44pm
Quoting steviet
Sounds like you had a great day then

I'll catch you - you know I will hehe

Kind Regards
Steve
well it not over yet cause three of the four are still open, so for now I think you hold the leader spot for YTD so far
  • #806
  • Feb 7, 2007 2:19pm Feb 7, 2007 2:19pm
ok, i'll cover my eyes then!

btw, keep the individual trades logged as usual but if you find that your overall performance starts to prey on your mind then keep the totals covered...

Quoting steviet
USDJPY short stopped out for minus 35 pips lol. Things were going nicely down and threatening to break 120 properly until someone says they are not going to be talking about yen weakness at the weekend G7 meeting.

Result is that UJ forms a nice double bottom and here we go again. We are seeing a constant pattern in the majors in the last weeks of a big bullish or bearish daily bar, followed by consolidation the next day and then reversal the day after. Kills the system stone dead but I'm not going anywhere.

Sorry Isotonic, cover your eyes - here come the numbers :

Net Pip Gain Feb 07: minus 445 pips
Cumulative since Nov 06: plus 1523 pips
A/c Bal Increase Feb 07: minus 7.63%
Increases So Far: Nov +7.08%, Dec +12.00%, Jan +10.54%, Feb -7.63%

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #807
  • Feb 7, 2007 3:10pm Feb 7, 2007 3:10pm
Increases So Far: Nov +7.08%, Dec +12.00%, Jan +10.54%, Feb -7.63%


Quite frankly, if this were a hedge fund's figures (or rather if there were a full 12 months / 5 years with of this sort of combination) people would be beating themselves to death trying to get in and one could ask $100k minimum deposits without a problem.

Losses may not be sexy, but they are necessary to keep things "real". It's just how it is.

Keep on truckin' Stevie
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #808
  • Feb 7, 2007 3:24pm Feb 7, 2007 3:24pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
I think its time we set up a hedge fund!!! watch this space i reckon!
  • #809
  • Feb 7, 2007 4:08pm Feb 7, 2007 4:08pm
Thanks for the comments guys

OK, remaining 4 trades have their stop losses tightened as per plan. Unfortunately as predicted they did nothing today after yesterday's big move lol.........

USDCHF short from 1.2398 (s/l 1.2436 guarantees minus 38 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9712 (s/l 1.9668 guarantees minus 44 pips)
EURUSD long from 1.2984 (s/l 1.2962 guarantees minus 22 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1847 (s/l 1.1805 guarantees minus 42 pips)

New trade...........

USDJPY long from 120.69 (s/l 119.88 guarantees minus 81 pips)

There's a winner out there somewhere hehe

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #810
  • Feb 7, 2007 8:49pm Feb 7, 2007 8:49pm
Im currently long on 8 pairs... not my fault, EA did it, hope the board stays green for the whole day!

Best of Luck,
Mikhail

Quoting steviet
My entries are based on my limited knowledge of candlestick patterns and also price action. I enter as the daily bar closes and the new one opens with my broker, which is 10pm gmt, not midnight gmt like some other brokers. In this tight ranging market it has been a nightmare because in a lot of cases the market went the way predicted for the first day & then reversed the next before I could lock in any profit. Often, even when ranging you can pic up some pips before the pair reverses on you but it has been too tight a range these last couple of weeks

By the way peeps, attached is a chart of today's prices which look really weird to me - don't know if I've ever seen a day when 16 out of 17 pairs are currently up on the open price. Maybe I should have just gone long on all 17 pairs last night & taken the pips now

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #811
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:51am Feb 8, 2007 1:51am
OK, USDCHF short stopped out for minus 38 pips. Looks like GU may go the same way - as usual all 5 trades have been in profit at some point and then the market kicks you in the teeth.

Anyhow, keeping the discipline & watching the snow - yes, snowy Berkshire today :surprised

Net pips for Feb 07: Not Enough
Cumulative Since Nov 06: Quite a lot

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #812
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:18am Feb 8, 2007 2:18am
Quoting steviet
OK, USDCHF short stopped out for minus 38 pips. Looks like GU may go the same way - as usual all 5 trades have been in profit at some point and then the market kicks you in the teeth.

Anyhow, keeping the discipline & watching the snow - yes, snowy Berkshire today :surprised

Net pips for Feb 07: Not Enough
Cumulative Since Nov 06: Quite a lot

Kind Regards
Steve
GU now hit for minus 44 pips - probably bounce up a hundred now

Oh, on second thoughts, it has to drag down my EU to stop that out first before bouncing lol.

OK, onto work - better ask for a raise lol

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #813
  • Feb 8, 2007 3:26am Feb 8, 2007 3:26am
Quoting steviet
OK, USDCHF short stopped out for minus 38 pips. Looks like GU may go the same way - as usual all 5 trades have been in profit at some point and then the market kicks you in the teeth.

Anyhow, keeping the discipline & watching the snow - yes, snowy Berkshire today :surprised

Net pips for Feb 07: Not Enough
Cumulative Since Nov 06: Quite a lot

Kind Regards
Steve
I hope that doesn't hurt you much, from last week when I got hurt badly, i've went down a timeframe and been trading on 4hr chart.. it's been pretty green

Just as a suggestion for when the market ranges, like you've said it before even it might be better to go down a timeframe.. keep your discipline for now and hold on tight
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #814
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:14am Feb 8, 2007 6:14am
Quoting karmostaji
I hope that doesn't hurt you much, from last week when I got hurt badly, i've went down a timeframe and been trading on 4hr chart.. it's been pretty green

Just as a suggestion for when the market ranges, like you've said it before even it might be better to go down a timeframe.. keep your discipline for now and hold on tight
Cool - well done
  • #815
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:23am Feb 8, 2007 6:23am
OK,

It's been dead at work today due to the weather so been doing some calculations which I would like some comments on please.

We hear a pro trader would be very happy with returns of 30% each year - that equates to just over 2.2% a month average compounded.

What I would like to know is whether we are expecting too much - lets give you some examples.....

Lets start with $1000 & compound each month for 4 years & see what results we get. I am also assuming that we risk the same % of account balance each trade and if balance goes down we trade with lower pip size & up higher pip size - are we being over ambitious or can we actually do it??

5% average per month over 4 years would be $10497
6% $16322
7% $25625
8% $39691
9% $62348
10% $98456
15% $819247

I still believe I can average between 5% and 10% a month and both my backtesting and forward testing so far indicates as much.

Would love to hear your comments - if all we are talking about is sticking to rules, patience & discipline I can do that.

Comments please

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #816
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:35am Feb 8, 2007 6:35am
Quoting steviet
We hear a pro trader would be very happy with returns of 30% each year - that equates to just over 2.2% a month average compounded.



Kind Regards
Steve
Hey Steve,

I think that this type of speculation is one thing that is limiting aspiring traders. You should expect returns based on your testing, not opinions of others on what "pro" traders would be happy with.

When it comes down to it, the only way you are going to really know (and actually believe it) is when (not if ) you reach your one year mark. Also, unless you are using other people's money, the amount of returns you are getting really doesn't matter - they will be what they will be, nothing more nothing less. Then you can revise your forecast every 6 months if you are aiming towards some higher goal such as looking for real estate to invest in or becoming a full time trader.

Best of luck and look forward to the months ahead!

Cheers
Dean
To be one with the market, you must first be one with yourself.
  • #817
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:38am Feb 8, 2007 6:38am
Quoting Unforeseen
Hey Steve,

I think that this type of speculation is one thing that is limiting aspiring traders. You should expect returns based on your testing, not opinions of others on what "pro" traders would be happy with.

When it comes down to it, the only way you are going to really know (and actually believe it) is when (not if ) you reach your one year mark. Also, unless you are using other people's money, the amount of returns you are getting really doesn't matter - they will be what they will be, nothing more nothing less. Then you can revise your forecast every 6 months if you are aiming towards some higher goal such as looking for real estate to invest in or becoming a full time trader.

Best of luck and look forward to the months ahead!

Cheers
Dean
Thanks so much Dean for taking the time to respond - my thoughts as well but I'm only a noob - what do I know lol

Anyhow, I'm in this till the bitter (I mean better) end and then we can have a good year of live data to go with the 2 years backtesting.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #818
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:46am Feb 8, 2007 6:46am
ahh compounding what a glorious thing .. The real edge to the market IMO. Great journal steve, I trade very similar. My own thoughts with compounding is; Lets say after 4 years, are you going to withdraw somme of your account, or have the stommach to be trading whatever the new lot sizes will be on your position. According to ones system, nothing should change, ups and downs still occur, but do you persoanlly want to be trading 1000$ a pt as opposed to whatever you started with(just example). I always think about this. Or would I cut mmy account in maybe half, and start at the appropriate size. I guess when the time commes my lot sizes get that big, I can tackle that right

Keep it up bud,
MMike

Quoting steviet
OK,

It's been dead at work today due to the weather so been doing some calculations which I would like some comments on please.

We hear a pro trader would be very happy with returns of 30% each year - that equates to just over 2.2% a month average compounded.

What I would like to know is whether we are expecting too much - lets give you some examples.....

Lets start with $1000 & compound each month for 4 years & see what results we get. I am also assuming that we risk the same % of account balance each trade and if balance goes down we trade with lower pip size & up higher pip size - are we being over ambitious or can we actually do it??

5% average per month over 4 years would be $10497
6% $16322
7% $25625
8% $39691
9% $62348
10% $98456
15% $819247

I still believe I can average between 5% and 10% a month and both my backtesting and forward testing so far indicates as much.

Would love to hear your comments - if all we are talking about is sticking to rules, patience & discipline I can do that.

Comments please

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #819
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:54am Feb 8, 2007 6:54am
Quoting mbqb11
ahh compounding what a glorious thing .. The real edge to the market IMO. Great journal steve, I trade very similar. My own thoughts with compounding is; Lets say after 4 years, are you going to withdraw somme of your account, or have the stommach to be trading whatever the new lot sizes will be on your position. According to ones system, nothing should change, ups and downs still occur, but do you persoanlly want to be trading 1000$ a pt as opposed to whatever you started with(just example). I always think about this. Or would I cut mmy account in maybe half, and start at the appropriate size. I guess when the time commes my lot sizes get that big, I can tackle that right

Keep it up bud,
MMike
I agree with this Mike - obviously at some point when you can become totally debt free with money in the bank you can reduce the risk and you are comfortable with your average profit each year.

That's why I like stating pip gain/loss beacuse as that becomes $10 a pip, $100 a pip etc, I would rather look at pips than $'s as it must be easier psychologically.

Thanks for your opinion

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #820
  • Edited 7:34am Feb 8, 2007 7:07am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting steviet
I agree with this Mike - obviously at some point when you can become totally debt free with money in the bank you can reduce the risk and you are comfortable with your average profit each year.

That's why I like stating pip gain/loss beacuse as that becomes $10 a pip, $100 a pip etc, I would rather look at pips than $'s as it must be easier psychologically.

Thanks for your opinion

Kind Regards
Steve
Even when you start trading full time no matter how large your account grows it still has to be treated like that very first amount of risk capital and you should never treat your trading account like a saving account no matter how good your system turns out to be.

I mean by this is only be trading with funds if you lost it wouldn't change your current life style so make sure you have cash in the bank too

I know a few mates that got crushed doing this with Refco and had no choice but to go back to the 9 to 5 and they probably won't be trading for a living for at least another 2 years.

Yes it deff easier only thinking your risking a few 100 pips instead of a few $1,000.
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