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  • #3,281
  • Jul 12, 2008 12:53am Jul 12, 2008 12:53am
Quoting luSan
I read your entries and suddenly I understood much better your dance!
Thanks for the message...Clearly it will take a long time for lusan to really learn how to dance...still I made a little pips but this was worthless week: to many uncertainties and I was too impatient.

So your attack sequence was 1-2-6? How did you timed your entries? ...I know that there are no fixed rules, but how did you timed it?

Please do not be disturbed by ignorant people. I think that the best policy is not to acknowledge their messages. They will go away when they find no audience.

Regards,
Well Lusan I think we are both understanding better and reaching a new level and I would think others to are making the connection a little better.

As long as we don't drive the teacher crazy in the long run will be ok.
I think I did tell him in a past post he has his work cut out for him.
thanks teach.
  • #3,282
  • Jul 12, 2008 2:47am Jul 12, 2008 2:47am
Quoting Srikanth
finally this thread aslo becoming dirty with trade calls
I started to read this thread couple of days ago.
Someone may remember that there was a story
about man on the roof on the beginning.
Being on page 25 of this thread, it crossed my mind that
it would be very, very interesting to watch,
how fti trades. Then bang, page 218 and fti shows
it to all of us.
Thanks God, I will definitely take this ride .
  • #3,283
  • Edited 8:42am Jul 12, 2008 3:08am | Edited 8:42am
Dear fit, lilpip, Zenseven, Lusan, Zoran and other friends:

Since June 6 to June June 25(the day FED announce rate decision), I was doing OK with my FXsol account, got about 250% profit.

On June 25, I longed G/U around @9680, out around 9710. Squared, with no positions before FED decision.

Mistake No.1: After FED decision, the price resumed up-trend, while I was testing a trading platform and missed the opportunity to set up long positions.

Mistake No. 2: Since I missed the best oppotunity to long, on day 26, I started to short, assuming G/U will have at least a pullback and bearing mind of avoiding chasing the market. Look at hourly chart, it is a shooting star(GMT +6), isn't it? I made a mistake from the beginning, chosing the wrong trading direction.

When the price turned against me, I reduced my positions. The problem is the reduction is not enough. The price moved too fast when passing 9760, and I didn't set stop loss order(I don't want to a sitting duck). This time, the patience is not a virtue but an enemy. So I was stuck.

I started rescue operation by adding more positions around 9860~9880 averaged the price to 9820. The book loss is still with my threshhold.

Mistake No 3.: On June 27, the price went down to 9803 and gave me a chance to bail out. But the problem is: that was only a spike, I closed some positions around 9330~9340, but not all. Then what is worse, some rescue positions were also trapped. The position size is already in danger.

Mistake No 4: I saw the price couldn't break out 9900, and in early NY session when price went up again to 9900, I started to short from 9880~ 9900. But this time, the price broke through 9900. And more rescue positions trapped. I found out the position size was too heavy, cound not make further rescues.

Finally, I got a MC on June 1, with a shame that the highest price was just 10 pips higher then the MC price, and 4 days later G/U went down to 9650. If my positions were still there, 150~200 pips profit if closed @9650!

There are some things I need to think about.

1. From 9720 to 2.000, when I was trying to rescue bad innitial positions, in effect, I was trading against the main trend of my trading time frame. If I just closed the bad positions and follow the trend, wouldn't that be better?

2. Why not closed my initial bad positions when G/U passed 9760? Maybe I don't want to be a sitting duck, but one hour later, when price broke up 9790, surely break-through of 9760 is not stop loss sweep. And then why not put a stop loss order this time? Maybe I could be a sitting duck, but so what? Capital preservation is more important than being a sitting duck for once or twice.

3. When price broke through 9760, why not gave back some profits to the market in change of capital preservation and risk control?

4. Actually, I did some successful rescue operation when the price reached 9880. However, the initial dead-in-the-water positions had -150 pips loss, and effective rescue range is only 60 pips(9890~9830, 9830~9310 is only a spike which last less than 5 minutes).

And I have be honest to me, for a range of 60 pips, I could make only 10~30 pips profts. Let's take 20 pips, so in order to save 150 pips loss, you need about more troops of 7 times of initial positions. Wouldn't that too harder than just take loss from the begining and traded while following trend with 7 times of troops?

Dear fti, sincerely, would you point out my mistakes and give me some advice. I am suffering and upset about serious drawback. You see, I am doing ants job and build up profits, but suddenly, several days drawback sent me back to the initial status.

Confused and troubled: David
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  • #3,284
  • Jul 12, 2008 6:14am Jul 12, 2008 6:14am
Quoting Green_David
Dear fit, lilpip, Zenseven, Lusan, Zoran and other friends:
David
Untercapitalization? Overtrading?
Maybe if you have disclosed your MM, the picture would be much clearer.
Just my 2c.
~xa
  • #3,285
  • Jul 12, 2008 7:08am Jul 12, 2008 7:08am
Quoting fxa
Untercapitalization? Overtrading?
Maybe if you have disclosed your MM, the picture would be much clearer.
Just my 2c.
~xa
OK.

To make it clear, if my account equity is USD10,000. my initial position is normally 1 standard lot (I trade only E/U and G/U by intraday). So, let's say if the market turned against me for 100 pips, the book loss is -10%. My maximum book loss is supposed to be -30%.

When I am doing right, I will added on winners increasing position size by 2 times maximum.

Agressive, I have to say.

David
  • #3,286
  • Edited Jul 13, 2008 7:24am Jul 12, 2008 7:40am | Edited Jul 13, 2008 7:24am
Quoting Green_David
Dear fit, lilpip, Zenseven, Lusan, Zoran and other friends:

Since June 6 to June June 25(the day FED announce rate decision), I was doing OK with my FXsol account, got about 250% profit.

On June 25, I longed G/U around @9680, out around 9710. Squared, with no positions before FED decision.

Mistake No.1: After FED decision, the price resumed up-trend, while I was testing a trading platform and missed the opportunity to set up long positions.

Mistake No. 2: Since I missed the best oppotunity to long, on day 26, I started to short, assuming G/U will have at least a pullback and bearing mind of avoiding chasing the market. Look at hourly chart, it is a shooting star(GMT +6), isn't it? I made a mistake from the beginning, chosing the wrong trading direction.

When the price turned against me, I reduced my positions. The problem is the reduction is not enough. The price moves too fast when passing 9760, and I didn't set stoll loss order(I don't want to a sitting duck). This time, the patience is not a virtue but an enemy. So I was stuck.

I started rescue operation by adding more positions around 9860~9880 averaged the price to 9820. The book loss is still with my threshhold.

Mistake No 3.: On June 27, the price went down to 9803 and gave me a chance to bail out. But the problem is that was only a spike, I closed some positions around 9330~9340, but not all. The what is worse, some rescue positions were also trapped. The position size is already in danger.

Mistake No 4: I saw the price couldn't break out 9900, and in early NY session when price went up again, I started to short from 9880~ 9900. But this time the price broke through 9900. And more rescue positions trapped. I found out the position size was to heavy, cound not make further rescues.

Finally, I got a MC on June 1, with a shame that the highest price was just 10 pips higher then the MC price, and 4 days later G/U went down to 9650. If my positions were still there, 150~200 pips profit if closed @9650!

There are some things I need to think about.

1. From 9720 to 2.000, when I was trying to rescue bad innitial positions, in effect, I was trading against the main trend of my trading time frame. If I just closed the bad positions and follow the trend, wouldn't that be better?

2. Why not closed my initial bad positions when G/U passed 9760? Maybe I don't want to be a sitting duck, but one hour later, when price broke up 9790, surely break-through of 9760 is not stop loss sweep. And then why not put a stoll loss order this time? Maybe I could be a sitting duck, but so what? Capital preservation is more important than being a sitting duce for once or twice.

3. When price broke through 9760, why not gave back some profits to the market in change of capital preservation and risk control?

4. Actually, I did some successful rescue operation when the price reached 9880. However, the initial dead-in-the-water positions had -150 pips loss, and effective rescue range is only 60 pips(9890~9830, 9830~9310 is only a spike which last less than 5 minutes).

And I have be onest to me, for a range of 60 pips, I could make only 10~30 pips profts. Let's take 20 pips, so in order to save 150 pips loss, you need about more troops of 7 times of initial positions. Wouldn't that too harder than just stop loss from the begining and trading while following trend with 7 times of troops?

Dear fti, sincerely, would you point out my mistakes and give me some advice. I am suffering and upset about serious drawback. You see, I am doing ants job and build up profits, but suddenly, several days drawback sent me back to the initial status.

Confused and troubled: David
GreenDaviid,

As you know I am new and inexperience so any thoughts I express at any post should be considered as such.
They are only there to convey my thoughts, understanding, and perception as to what I'm seeing to the group.
They are also there with the hope of being directed, reminded, guided and encouraged by the more experienced.

It was from one of your previous post that I realized one of the more important and difficult things to do is to find where is the trend coming from each day, as it would seem inevitable because of my inexperience, when using the 1hr. 15min and 5 min I would end up with these long rescues like yourself.

However, after seeing fti's exercise seeing the speed of the dance, getting in and out, we will most likely cut back on putting ourselves in those consistant rescue operations;
Don't you think?

So I figured that if find where the (daily) higher more dominant time frame trend is coming from I would have less of a chance in a big rescue operation during that day, So that is one of my generals top priorities in planning.


So the commander has his work cut out to find the best point of entry each day as he goes into his daily battle to avoid casualtes.

I misread and thought you were still in a trade, anyway just erased that other print.

I do have a question though.

Besides the fact of assumption which we all know what happens after that.
How well did the general know the terrain
You were right saying you were on the wrong side of a trend, where did the general consider his support/resistance of that trend Is one question I would ask.
That would contribute to determine whether you kill the trade. At least it does for me.

To, I have a question for fti.
Is David caught in one those spirals from the 9656 that you spoke of in the past? If so can you elaborate briefly I'm trying to understand them.
  • #3,287
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:26am Jul 12, 2008 8:26am
Quoting Green_David
OK.

To make it clear, if my account equity is USD10,000. my initial position is normally 1 standard lot (I trade only E/U and G/U by intraday). So, let's say if the market turned against me for 100 pips, the book loss is -10%. My maximum book loss is supposed to be -30%.

When I am doing right, I will added on winners increasing position size by 2 times maximum.

Agressive, I have to say.

David
Thanks for clarifying your MM David.
Let's wait what fti and others says on it.
Have a nice rest of weekend.
~xa
  • #3,288
  • Jul 12, 2008 10:15am Jul 12, 2008 10:15am
Quoting fxa
Thanks for clarifying your MM David.
Let's wait what fti and others says on it.
Have a nice rest of weekend.
~xa
I am more conservative on the initial at 1mini per $10,000. This leaves me more room to be wrong!!
  • #3,289
  • Jul 12, 2008 10:23am Jul 12, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Green_David
OK.

To make it clear, if my account equity is USD10,000. my initial position is normally 1 standard lot (I trade only E/U and G/U by intraday). So, let's say if the market turned against me for 100 pips, the book loss is -10%. My maximum book loss is supposed to be -30%.

When I am doing right, I will added on winners increasing position size by 2 times maximum.

Agressive, I have to say.

David
David

Basically, you are working with 1000 troops and I think that is under capitalised. At the moment, I have over 10,000 troops so at an equivalent level, I would be trading one mini-lot to your lot (although I trade in £s and not $s).

I remember fti once mentioning that he considered 10,000 troops under capitalised although he understood that everyone has their financial limitations.
  • #3,290
  • Jul 12, 2008 3:34pm Jul 12, 2008 3:34pm
Quoting Northpro
I am more conservative on the initial at 1mini per $10,000. This leaves me more room to be wrong!!
Standard, I missed that.

It's definately not a position to be in, but we all have.

I'm with you, 10,000 using mini lots while I'm in diapers.
  • #3,291
  • Jul 12, 2008 6:04pm Jul 12, 2008 6:04pm
Hi, sorry to hear about your MC.

I have taken fti's ideas to heart, but unless you have unlimited resources, you must establish a threshold of pain when trying to rescue trade positions. I my mind, and since trading is my full time job, being a good steward of my margin account is job #1. If your threshold is 30%, maybe you should have killed all postions at that level unless you had overwhelming evidence that you were on the right path (just facts, not hope). Actually, I kill any trade regardless of price when my analysis and "The Dance" go off course and I am unable to reconcile the difference on a higher compression chart (30M or 60M) from the one used for entry (10M).

This is just me and is not right for everyone, but hope my first try at contributing is okay. As for the future: I know a fx trader in West Virginia who lost $750,000 in one morning when he was confronted with a personal emergency and had to leave his trading station open while he made a trip to the local hospital. He got to work the next day and made it all back in less than two months. Hard work and good MM will pay off...

Rap
  • #3,292
  • Edited 7:17pm Jul 12, 2008 6:37pm | Edited 7:17pm
Quoting rapaduski1
Hi, sorry to hear about your MC.

I have taken fti's ideas to heart, but unless you have unlimited resources, you must establish a threshold of pain when trying to rescue trade positions. I my mind, and since trading is my full time job, being a good steward of my margin account is job #1. If your threshold is 30%, maybe you should have killed all postions at that level unless you had overwhelming evidence that you were on the right path (just facts, not hope). Actually, I kill any trade regardless of price when my analysis and "The Dance" go off course and I am unable to reconcile the difference on a higher compression chart (30M or 60M) from the one used for entry (10M).

This is just me and is not right for everyone, but hope my first try at contributing is okay. As for the future: I know a fx trader in West Virginia who lost $750,000 in one morning when he was confronted with a personal emergency and had to leave his trading station open while he made a trip to the local hospital. He got to work the next day and made it all back in less than two months. Hard work and good MM will pay off...

Rap
rapaduski1,
Welcome to the thread and feel free to contribute.
I thought you had earlier posts and this wasn't your 1st time? ,
We do like encouraging stories and their results when proper mm is used.
  • #3,293
  • Jul 13, 2008 12:22am Jul 13, 2008 12:22am
Hi, Zoran, Northpro, lilpip, rapaduski:

Thank you for your comments. My scout size is the same proportion of 0.5 standard lot for 10K. My position size was heavy because my attack troops were also trapped.

This brought new question, how to attack? And when attack troops also trapped, what to do?

I will reduce the scout size. With reduced scout size, is it easier to kill the scout or is it easier to rescue?

Another question, when shall we stop rescue? Surely, rescrue operation shall not turn out to be trading against trend.

Waiting for the chief's answer.

David
  • #3,294
  • Jul 13, 2008 5:12am Jul 13, 2008 5:12am
Quoting Green_David
Dear fit, lilpip, Zenseven, Lusan, Zoran and other friends:

Since June 6 to June June 25(the day FED announce rate decision), I was doing OK with my FXsol account, got about 250% profit.

On June 25, I longed G/U around @9680, out around 9710. Squared, with no positions before FED decision.

Mistake No.1: After FED decision, the price resumed up-trend, while I was testing a trading platform and missed the opportunity to set up long positions.

Mistake No. 2: Since I missed the best oppotunity to long, on day 26, I started to short, assuming G/U will have at least a pullback and bearing mind of avoiding chasing the market. Look at hourly chart, it is a shooting star(GMT +6), isn't it? I made a mistake from the beginning, chosing the wrong trading direction.

When the price turned against me, I reduced my positions. The problem is the reduction is not enough. The price moved too fast when passing 9760, and I didn't set stop loss order(I don't want to a sitting duck). This time, the patience is not a virtue but an enemy. So I was stuck.

I started rescue operation by adding more positions around 9860~9880 averaged the price to 9820. The book loss is still with my threshhold.

Mistake No 3.: On June 27, the price went down to 9803 and gave me a chance to bail out. But the problem is: that was only a spike, I closed some positions around 9330~9340, but not all. Then what is worse, some rescue positions were also trapped. The position size is already in danger.

Mistake No 4: I saw the price couldn't break out 9900, and in early NY session when price went up again to 9900, I started to short from 9880~ 9900. But this time, the price broke through 9900. And more rescue positions trapped. I found out the position size was too heavy, cound not make further rescues.

Finally, I got a MC on June 1, with a shame that the highest price was just 10 pips higher then the MC price, and 4 days later G/U went down to 9650. If my positions were still there, 150~200 pips profit if closed @9650!

There are some things I need to think about.

1. From 9720 to 2.000, when I was trying to rescue bad innitial positions, in effect, I was trading against the main trend of my trading time frame. If I just closed the bad positions and follow the trend, wouldn't that be better?

2. Why not closed my initial bad positions when G/U passed 9760? Maybe I don't want to be a sitting duck, but one hour later, when price broke up 9790, surely break-through of 9760 is not stop loss sweep. And then why not put a stop loss order this time? Maybe I could be a sitting duck, but so what? Capital preservation is more important than being a sitting duck for once or twice.

3. When price broke through 9760, why not gave back some profits to the market in change of capital preservation and risk control?

4. Actually, I did some successful rescue operation when the price reached 9880. However, the initial dead-in-the-water positions had -150 pips loss, and effective rescue range is only 60 pips(9890~9830, 9830~9310 is only a spike which last less than 5 minutes).

And I have be honest to me, for a range of 60 pips, I could make only 10~30 pips profts. Let's take 20 pips, so in order to save 150 pips loss, you need about more troops of 7 times of initial positions. Wouldn't that too harder than just take loss from the begining and traded while following trend with 7 times of troops?

Dear fti, sincerely, would you point out my mistakes and give me some advice. I am suffering and upset about serious drawback. You see, I am doing ants job and build up profits, but suddenly, several days drawback sent me back to the initial status.

Confused and troubled: David
Greend_David, thank you for coming forward with this! We should all learn from mistakes and this is pretty common one.

First mistake I see is No 2, I think this was an emotional trade, you felt like you were missing the train and you should have waited at next train stop to go long again. You chose a quick posi against it and its not that bad by itself but theese trades should be small and swift (as I say it to myself: for fun only).

No 3, if you could go out on the spike with net 0 or something in profit you should have done it, if you were still in loss area then I would have waited more myself and also missed the opportunity to exit. Sometimes I do take a small loss but 90% of time its pre-mature.

About the rest.. we have had several discussions here about situations like this with a lot of advice in them. I hope fti will comment this more as he is the experienced one.

Imho, you knew you were going against the trend and you should have adjusted your positions accordingly. Your MC was 10 pips before the top, well it could have been easily 200 pips.. don't hurt yourself by thinking what I should have, could have, would have done while looking at history. It's gone. Remember the monk stories, get over it.
  • #3,295
  • Jul 13, 2008 7:28am Jul 13, 2008 7:28am
Quoting Green_David
Dear fit, lilpip, Zenseven, Lusan, Zoran and other friends:

Since June 6 to June June 25(the day FED announce rate decision), I was doing OK with my FXsol account, got about 250% profit.

On June 25, I longed G/U around @9680, out around 9710. Squared, with no positions before FED decision.

Mistake No.1: After FED decision, the price resumed up-trend, while I was testing a trading platform and missed the opportunity to set up long positions.

Mistake No. 2: Since I missed the best oppotunity to long, You decided to kill yourself self by trading against the trend on day 26, I started to short, assuming ( making an ass of you and me ) G/U will have at least a pullback and bearing mind of avoiding chasing the market. Look at hourly chart, it is a shooting star(GMT +6), isn't it? I made a mistake from the beginning, chosing the wrong trading direction.

When the price turned against me, I reduced my positions. The problem is the reduction is not enough. so you decided to rescue against the trend The price moved too fast when passing 9760, and I didn't set stop loss order(I don't want to a sitting duck). This time, the patience is not a virtue but an enemy. Patience looked more like egor So I was stuck.

I started rescue operation by adding more positions around 9860~9880 averaged the price to 9820. The book loss is still with my threshhold. So you wondered that since you were invincible , you can do anything you like

Mistake No 3.: On June 27, the price went down to 9803 and gave me a chance to bail out. But the problem is: that was only a spike, I closed some positions around 9330~9340, but not all. Then what is worse, some rescue positions were also trapped. The position size is already in danger.and as you were the market , you can dance as you like, the market gotta follow you, it would not be otherwise , How would the market dare to get back into trend without giving your invivibility the chance to get all your positions out first, This is not possible, you are invincible and you are well capitalised.

Mistake No 4: I saw the price couldn't break out 9900, and in early NY session when price went up again to 9900, I started to short from 9880~ 9900. But this time, the price broke through 9900. And more rescue positions trapped. I found out the position size was too heavy, cound not make further rescues.What condesending behaviour , the market thinks that they can continue the trend without giving you profit first. You will show them, You got more money to back your positions then the market can trend against.

Finally, I got a MC on June 1, with a shame that the highest price was just 10 pips higher then the MC price, and 4 days later G/U went down to 9650. If my positions were still there, 150~200 pips profit if closed @9650!
What the...., now we will drown, why did you do that,. Well sorry, I couldn't help myself, It's my ......

There are some things I need to think about.

1. From 9720 to 2.000, when I was trying to rescue bad innitial positions, in effect, I was trading against the main trend of my trading time frame. If I just closed the bad positions and follow the trend, wouldn't that be better?

2. Why not closed my initial bad positions when G/U passed 9760? Maybe I don't want to be a sitting duck, but one hour later, when price broke up 9790, surely break-through of 9760 is not stop loss sweep. And then why not put a stop loss order this time? Maybe I could be a sitting duck, but so what? Capital preservation is more important than being a sitting duck for once or twice.

3. When price broke through 9760, why not gave back some profits to the market in change of capital preservation and risk control?

4. Actually, I did some successful rescue operation when the price reached 9880. However, the initial dead-in-the-water positions had -150 pips loss, and effective rescue range is only 60 pips(9890~9830, 9830~9310 is only a spike which last less than 5 minutes).

And I have be honest to me, for a range of 60 pips, I could make only 10~30 pips profts. Let's take 20 pips, so in order to save 150 pips loss, you need about more troops of 7 times of initial positions. Wouldn't that too harder than just take loss from the begining and traded while following trend with 7 times of troops?

Dear fti, sincerely, would you point out my mistakes and give me some advice. I am suffering and upset about serious drawback. You see, I am doing ants job and build up profits, but suddenly, several days drawback sent me back to the initial status.

Confused and troubled: David
Hi David,
If you allow egor to think for you while you count your profits, then you will earn this lesson again and again until you learn to recognise egor.

I wonder what I can teach you. Maybe I should let some here teach you instead.
This trader here has good mindset, you may recognise him.

Quoting Green_David
Thank you fti. I will always remember your saying dancing with the market. I think it is great thought beyond mechanical technical analysis.

So, for trend determination, we must see the chart not think/assume by ourselves. If the sign of trend is not clear, be patient and wait standby with no positions.

So, when you carry the positions over night. You will reduce the size to a safe level as no need to place a stop loss. I see.

Thank you very much. Looking forward to your Chinese story, I wonder if I ever heard of .

Cheers.
Any ways
Analysis = who needs that.
Trade in line with trend = failed ,

mindset : Trade counter trend
patience = failed , so market didn't wait for you, teach it a lesson, trade against it.
rescue in line with trend = failed, nevermine the trend , you can rescue any dead in water positions. You are king of market.
flowing into the trend = against, You will teach the market not to respect you.
humility to market's lead = failed, but you are king , right?

Dance : You are dance master, so market must follow you. No other way. There's no terrain that you cannot handle, you got MM, and thats all thats needed. No need to babysit this chaps , you gotta the $$, huh

MM : You got the $$, you can attack , even when in adversity, Super skilled.

Capitalisation : You got the big $$, no sequense can take you out. Can it?

Well wonder what happened, maybe its a fluke.

regards
  • #3,296
  • Jul 13, 2008 7:38am Jul 13, 2008 7:38am
Quoting fti
Hi David,
If you allow egor to think for you while you count your profits, then you will earn this lesson again and again until you learn to recognise egor.

I wonder what I can teach you. Maybe I should let some here teach you instead.
This trader here has good mindset, you may recognise him.



Any ways
Analysis = who needs that.
Trade in line with trend = failed ,

mindset : Trade counter trend
patience = failed , so market didn't wait for you, teach it a lesson, trade against it.
rescue in line with trend = failed, nevermine the trend , you can rescue any dead in water positions. You are king of market.
flowing into the trend = against, You will teach the market not to respect you.
humility to market's lead = failed, but you are king , right?

Dance : You are dance master, so market must follow you. No other way. There's no terrain that you cannot handle, you got MM, and thats all thats needed. No need to babysit this chaps , you gotta the $$, huh

MM : You got the $$, you can attack , even when in adversity, Super skilled.

Capitalisation : You got the big $$, no sequense can take you out. Can it?

Well wonder what happened, maybe its a fluke.

regards
I needed to here some things in that post, simple direct and to the point,
especially the power of mm.
thanks
  • #3,297
  • Edited 8:15am Jul 13, 2008 7:56am | Edited 8:15am
A possibility, Once upon a time.....,

Quoting Green_David
Dear fit, lilpip, Zenseven, Lusan, Zoran and other friends:

Since June 6 to June June 25(the day FED announce rate decision), I was doing OK with my FXsol account, got about 250% profit.

On June 25, I longed G/U around @9680, out around 9710. Squared, with no positions before FED decision.

Mistake No.1: After FED decision, the price resumed up-trend, while I was testing a trading platform and missed the opportunity to set up long positions. oops, the trend has resumed, I'm not in.

Mistake No. 2: Since I missed the best oppotunity to long, on day 26, I started to short, assuming G/U will have at least a pullback and bearing mind of avoiding chasing the market. Look at hourly chart, it is a shooting star(GMT +6), isn't it? I made a mistake from the beginning, chosing the wrong trading direction.
Where can I get in on this party. Should I send out the scout?, Whats, the volitility sequense? Lets see where the market allow a time window for me? Will this trend RUN?

When the price turned against me, I reduced my positions. The problem is the reduction is not enough. The price moved too fast when passing 9760, and I didn't set stop loss order(I don't want to a sitting duck). This time, the patience is not a virtue but an enemy. So I was stuck.

I started rescue operation by adding more positions around 9860~9880 averaged the price to 9820. The book loss is still with my threshhold.
Ah the scouts good, some quick attack will put the scout out of range to be endangered.

Mistake No 3.: On June 27, the price went down to 9803 and gave me a chance to bail out. But the problem is: that was only a spike, I closed some positions around 9330~9340, but not all. Then what is worse, some rescue positions were also trapped. The position size is already in danger.
Well is this 1st wave, or second wave? How aggressive can I attack safely?


Mistake No 4: I saw the price couldn't break out 9900, and in early NY session when price went up again to 9900, I started to short from 9880~ 9900. But this time, the price broke through 9900. And more rescue positions trapped. I found out the position size was too heavy, cound not make further rescues.
Oh good, another impulse, great, I got good profits, on attack as well as scout.
So how can I protect the profits , while staying on the trend,

Finally, I got a MC on June 1, with a shame that the highest price was just 10 pips higher then the MC price, and 4 days later G/U went down to 9650. If my positions were still there, 150~200 pips profit if closed @9650!
the trend seems deep in, must be nimble now.

There are some things I need to think about.

1. From 9720 to 2.000, when I was trying to rescue bad innitial positions, in effect, I was trading against the main trend of my trading time frame. If I just closed the bad positions and follow the trend, wouldn't that be better?

2. Why not closed my initial bad positions when G/U passed 9760? Maybe I don't want to be a sitting duck, but one hour later, when price broke up 9790, surely break-through of 9760 is not stop loss sweep. And then why not put a stop loss order this time? Maybe I could be a sitting duck, but so what? Capital preservation is more important than being a sitting duck for once or twice.

3. When price broke through 9760, why not gave back some profits to the market in change of capital preservation and risk control?

4. Actually, I did some successful rescue operation when the price reached 9880. However, the initial dead-in-the-water positions had -150 pips loss, and effective rescue range is only 60 pips(9890~9830, 9830~9310 is only a spike which last less than 5 minutes).

And I have be honest to me, for a range of 60 pips, I could make only 10~30 pips profts. Let's take 20 pips, so in order to save 150 pips loss, you need about more troops of 7 times of initial positions. Wouldn't that too harder than just take loss from the begining and traded while following trend with 7 times of troops?

Dear fti, sincerely, would you point out my mistakes and give me some advice. I am suffering and upset about serious drawback. You see, I am doing ants job and build up profits, but suddenly, several days drawback sent me back to the initial status.

Confused and troubled: David

DAVID,

MINDSET !
The ART OF WAR, SUN ZI
DON'T BUCK THE TREND, IT IS YOUR ONLY FRIEND

RESPECT THE MARKET, be humble

even, when you were caught on the first rescue, didi you reference your hourly chart for trend bias?
did you reference , the volitility of the impulse?

you rescued against trend, this is the hardest, were you nimble?or were you fearless?
What is the standard and technical defination of "trend"?

regards
  • #3,298
  • Jul 13, 2008 8:29am Jul 13, 2008 8:29am
Quoting fti
Hi David,
If you allow egor to think for you while you count your profits, then you will earn this lesson again and again until you learn to recognise egor.

I wonder what I can teach you. Maybe I should let some here teach you instead.
This trader here has good mindset, you may recognise him.



Any ways
Analysis = who needs that.
Trade in line with trend = failed ,

mindset : Trade counter trend
patience = failed , so market didn't wait for you, teach it a lesson, trade against it.
rescue in line with trend = failed, nevermine the trend , you can rescue any dead in water positions. You are king of market.
flowing into the trend = against, You will teach the market not to respect you.
humility to market's lead = failed, but you are king , right?

Dance : You are dance master, so market must follow you. No other way. There's no terrain that you cannot handle, you got MM, and thats all thats needed. No need to babysit this chaps , you gotta the $$, huh

MM : You got the $$, you can attack , even when in adversity, Super skilled.

Capitalisation : You got the big $$, no sequense can take you out. Can it?

Well wonder what happened, maybe its a fluke.

regards
Hi, Fti:

Very glad to hear your comments. Thank you very much.

The attached chart is 1 hour chart. I entered scout and added first attack positions as in yellow circle. I was according 5 min chart(5 min chart can't show as early as June 26) to enter. Looking at the 1h chart, it is a shooting star, a bearing sign. I draw 2 imaginative red candles, well, if that happened, my entry would be perfect. In this sense, I didn't short blindly.

Of course, the price didn't go as I expected: the second candle didn't go down and the price bounced back, so I reduced my size with profits even though the profits are very small. But as I said, offloading is not enough, since I closed the only profitable positions.

I remember you shorted E/U on 23 June and made good profits. I did the same. It is also sort of against daily trend, isn't it?

And for mistake No. 4. Yes, I was trading completely based on guess. The reason is simple: to get a better price instead of waiting for 5min confirmation! Because when trading counter-trend, the space is narrow, and very difficult to make a larger profit.

Over 14 days, the daily maximum drawback is -1%, so, I am not gambling before that day.

My problem, I think is I just don't have guts to face the fact of loss and over-position, and due to lack of that guts, failed to act immediatle and allow the positions out of control(more than scout)

How can I say? I am still a newbie trader.

Of course, if reduced the size enough, -300 pips would not hurt me at all when G/U touched 2.0, and if I started to short again, that would be much better. Of course I shall miss the bulk of price move from 1.9720 to 2.0.

Regards

David
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU case study end of june hour chart.JPG Size: 102 KB
  • #3,299
  • Jul 13, 2008 8:55am Jul 13, 2008 8:55am
Quoting fti
A possibility, Once upon a time.....,




DAVID,

MINDSET !
The ART OF WAR, SUN ZI
DON'T BUCK THE TREND, IT IS YOUR ONLY FRIEND

RESPECT THE MARKET, be humble

even, when you were caught on the first rescue, didi you reference your hourly chart for trend bias?
did you reference , the volitility of the impulse?

you rescued against trend, this is the hardest, were you nimble?or were you fearless?
What is the standard and technical defination of "trend"?

regards
I did check the 1 hour reference. I know it was very dangerous. In fact, I reduced some rescue positions with small profits befor I went to sleep. And the averaged price increased from 9780 to 9810.

The next day, due to weaker than expected data, G/U did go down as low as 9803. But it was a stop loss spike, it did not go down any more. I reduced some positions, but again not enough. And then G/U went up almost 80 pips higher right after I closed some rescue positions.

By that time the book loss was still in control, ie. less than 10%.

The disaster is mistake No. 4, because I was trapped another 100 pips already, and I openned more positions to average down, but this time I lost alert and clear mind after long hours of my work. The 9960 was not resistence any more.

Regards.

David

P.S. The same case with E/U and G/U now. To long on E/U? It is right, since it is definately following the trend. But it could also be possible that maybe chasing the market and longed at the top, if we see the long tail of G/U and U/J.
  • #3,300
  • Jul 13, 2008 9:02am Jul 13, 2008 9:02am
Hi all,

David, I just read your last post and would say that the actual candle after your circled candle is an engulfing candle that would scare me to death especially given that the trade is against the 4H trend. Perhaps in the future, when the imaginary candles do not develop, you are just better off killing the counter-trend trade and riding the trend up, which seems clear as the day developed. In know, paper trading is always 20/20.

In addition, you seem to use the shooting star candle as the main reason for assuming a move down. I am pretty conservative in my trading, so call me carzy for saying this, but you may want to establish a trading rule that says you must have at least 5 reasons to enter a trade (that would be five facts/observations rather that assumptions) before entering a trade.

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