Wall Street close watch

I am more inclined now to think they (GU / GJ) are breakaway gaps.

Although S&P500 futures really haven't reacted too much so far -0.4% down.

European markets down around -1.0% on average.

anyone watching the yuan closely?

I'm just beginning to pay attention to it and would love some pointers about its dynamics from people who have looked at it for a while.

thanks!

Thought I would post here and try to get this thread going again.

Looks like the Fed is in a corner; no more rate cuts and really can't raise them either.

Where to from here?

DJIA tried to rally today up over 170 pts.
Closed +57.80.
Nice pinbar on todays action with heavier volume on selling.

S/P can't stay above important support now turned resistance level of 1344.

Big banks report earnings next week.

Looks like another meltdown to me.

Comments ?

Total volume was anemic. Summer is here. Well in my part of the world it never leaves.

But the S&P500 was at 57.5% upside volume which is not bad but not fantastic either.

In bear markets (which we may now be heading into?) thursday is the rally day and selling resumes on fridays. We shall soon see.

havent been following the news much lately but from a high level it looks like the fed HAS to get back to raising rates. while they try to hold up the economy they are letting inflation get the best of them, especially on the commodities front. the weak dollar is helping manufacturing right now, but thats the only reason i see for keeping rates low. could the fed get lucky again... housing saves the dot bomb, then manufacturing saves housing burst?

as for the stock market, well, we all see where thats headed

well we broke 12K with authority, not looking good for the bulls

Bear market has just begun.

Indeed. It is "officially" a bear market (which means I start buying soon ).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7486640.stm


On a related note:

"The fugitive former manager of the Bayou Group hedge fund, whose faked suicide on a Hudson River bridge and subsequent disappearance last month set off an international manhunt, turned himself in Wednesday morning in Southwick, Mass., just after speaking to his mother by phone."

My take: if you cant fake a suicide without your mom interfering, you shouldn't be trading at all.

I read about that yesterday... What was he thinking turning himself in? It's not that hard to find a country that has no extradition treaty with the United States, and while some of these countries may not exactly be heaven on earth, they sure beat the hell out of jail.

A lttle event called 9-11 has made it easier to track movement of people and more importantly their money, ill-gotten or otherwise.

i saw this! too funny!! LOL! any drama that involves trading is right up my alley thats why im hooked on this new Trader magazine, if you dont have a subscription yet, get one now, you wont regret it. its like a gossip mag for traders

as for wallstreet, things are falling apart as expected and we are in store for a panic crash me thinks, monday looks like a good day

Well yes, but then there's this other problem called "your mom" that tends to complicate things even worse than the "patriot act" (which I passionately hate). The dude waited until AFTER his silly little stunt, then apparently remembered he hadn't called his mom to tell her he was faking a suicide. Time for a wiretapped phone call.

Seriously, no comment.

Fanni-ng the flames and Mac-king taxpayer dollars

(aka Phony and Fraudy git their rescuin' on)


U.S. Weighs Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/11/bu...fannie.html?hp

"Alarmed by the growing financial stress at the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, senior Bush administration officials are considering a plan to have the government take over one or both of the companies and place them in a conservatorship if their problems worsen, people briefed about the plan said on Thursday"


See also
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...YU4&refer=home

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Yay for eternal big-boy-botch, little-man-pay merry-go-around.

I've posted this one somewhere along the line. Long term charting is entertaining, but, takes a, er, long time to show it works


Bit like a sitcom though, no?

Please note that the likely turnaround points / targets / reaction zones were put in either beforehand or, at around the turning point for May. The chart was on the 16th, the high before this drop started on the 17th.

Since I sometimes get "called out" on charting / technical analysis or something, as in "TA always can only do what FA allows it to" or similiarly:
This is a really nice showcase for progression.

Accordingly one should note - there was exactly ZERO, I repeat ZERO fundamental analysis involved(this is the German Index anyway). Just simple TA and price flips. Plus my "creative" projections.
The boundaries are always going to be put in by price, regardless of what "really moves it".

I think one can really see and trade these type of zones, that's more important to me personally.

Caveat(and this needs to be said) - I've been completely off in the actual timing during a lot of the trip. In my behavior/posting(not that I ever stopped believing in new lows along the way though). A lot of that is chronicled here and boy, do I feel silly.

But for some reason, when I'm alone with the chart, it gets a lot clearer once away from the everyday buzz. Just wanted to throw these up as examples for charting progression.
In effect, the charts did what they were supposed to do, it was just me that got a lot carried away

I think detachment(especially from FA, but it's not just that) is one big factor in getting ahead. Either way, there's a lesson in there somewhere. Y'all know I'm the supposed "Anti-FA crusader", but that alone is not it.

As for the latest chart...there's some serious divergence built up and we haven't closed the week below that area yet. So anything still goes. But I do think there'll be some recognition of the fact we just went below that line, if briefly, already.

Carry is melting down strongly
I feel kind of bad for feeling good about something bad.

SL,

Hey how are things these days. Here is a DAX daily chart I have with same basic fib zones. I see a little divergence in RSI and price but still think it is going below 6000 to at least monthly S1/127.2% ExtRet 5967-5878 area. More likely 5500 zone.

Sun

Wassup ST
Sun still shining on you? It just can't decide here, but we got evil humidity as consolation
Doing alright otherwise, thanks =)


I also think that sub-6000s are just a question of time. I do wonder what news will report in "normal" television when we do. It's always interesting for me to reflect on how radically different the non-trading world is and their perception or lack thereof of this little subreality that is trading.

I've got some oddball TL around 5700ish and some s/r as marked in the chart.

I use the same "127.2% of the last potential Wave IV" min. target logic, too, btw, but usually we easily can get to 161.8%.
That's your 5500 zone, isn't it =)

Another fib idea would be => 50% retrace => 138.2% extension => around 5455 as seen in the chart.

One could get "inside" the fifth(if this is a fifth), look for an end of the V.3, then as it forms measure out the V.4 and just move stops above that once the lows go. Should capture the majority of the move.
Or one could just trail LL/LH logic and channel boundaries.

Not necessarily aimed at you Sun, you already know all that stuff anyway
I'm just rambling..

I think we've got a good chance of things getting very volatile again.

I also think we're not done with the full extent of the move to come, initiated by today's sneak attack.

At least things are finally MOVING.

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On a more "let's pass some time with trading unrelated speculation" basis..

Does anyone have any ideas what clever plans would be left?

We already have basically infinite Fed lending.
We already have "everyone will be bailed out".
I wonder if we're starting to reach the state I described earlier in the thread. Everything that can be done, is being done, and more. Yet still things seem to perpetually worsen regardless(Now, what if something REALLY evil-bad happens? Or has it already? Do we have the sudden "impact" event yet?).

What's left?

Panic?

SL,

I think the Fed /ECB / BOE / BOJ and throw in CIA / MI5 and any other 3 letter brilliant government agency around the world is just trying to hold their finger in the dike to avert a panic. All the while knowing that things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. Always have, always will. Bust follows boom without fail.

And in modern times when we go bust so does just about everyone else. A lot of traders here on FF (excluding yourself and certain others) are quick to talk about how the Dow/S&P/Nasdaq are going to tank. Those Einsteins forget that longterm as go the US markets so does the Europeans and Asians and others. I know you know this though.

Sun

I have to accumulate more data for the DAX further back to look at retracements. May be a weekend project.

Indeed.
On that thought - there has to be a next boom then, too, no?

I'm currently actually pondering whether or not there's any sense in unleveraged bargains in the low numbers.

The last bargain buy was the last Iraq war, when the DAX hit 2xxx levels(2403 says Yahoo, but I seem to remember 22xx figures one day in the news).
This was coming down from - yes indeed - 7960 at the height of the dot-com boom.

That's 80% gone.

Back then, it was tangible, everyone felt like the world could end any day now. It was early 2003, around February. Day after day, the DAX just was red, exasperation everywhere.

It was only briefly after this time, that the low point was reached. Perversely, in March, right as soon as the actual invasion began, the low was established. We went back to 7000+ in 4 years.

That was my first real life and really live example of the "buy when there's blood in the street", literally.

I had nothing to do with real trading then yet, but it did seem like a pretty low point compared to what I remembered as 5k+ valuations(turns out it was actually 8k) which we'd previously achieved. I was wondering about this back then(it being bargain levels, shouldn't people be buying?), but I just had nothing to do with all of it.

Anyone who'd have bought that monster-dip would have quadrupled their unleveraged long at 8000 DAX 4 years later..at which point, as the subprime loomed, I'd have gotten the heck out or put a s/l at 7100 at the worst.

400% in 4 years is still beatable with compounded active trading, but quite a lot less effort to just get in after an 80% bomb-out. People back then actually mentioned it(i.e buy these disaster prices to get rich), but I don't think they actually ever DID IT. Was very odd, truly.

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I know someone who has been buying tracker stuff and 1-2 stocks all the time during the 6200-7200 phase this year. I kept telling him he was rather nuts. He just said he'll just keep buying and that he's patient.

Personally I think it's not just being patient, it's being patient for the right event that gets you that moolah(if 8k is a 20 year double top peak, buying at 7k is NOT the way to riches in my book, call me silly, boring or no-fun-conservative).

I'm seriously pondering a small sum I can spare if we are to really reach decent levels(at the very least below 4000 in my mind) vs just getting a broker/market maker with indices and trading it actively and leveraged on perhaps weekly.

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Oh and as for cross market contagion - the DAX has been a DJI proxy for a long time. It just seems to chart a lot nicer
German efficiency again!

i wont be surprised if monday turns out to be a black one