1026 pips in a week, but no idea

Hello All,

I've made 20% on an account in 7 days, admittdly high risk, it's just an experiment but i tend to need 4% risk on account balance to make a single trade.

Problem is i'll be honest, i do think it's a potential money management risk, and wondering if someone could explain in detail lot sizes vs account balance vs risk.

For anyone that wants to see the FXCM print out, i can show them.

The system is based on look at a 15 min chart, seeing if it's currently in the higher or lower section of the range, if it's in one, check on the 30 and 60 minute charts to confirm... thats it.

Set a stop loss below where the currency tops or bottoms out and set a reasonable profit target, yes it does mean taking 20-75 pip profits, with 150-200 pip losses, but i've made 1026 pips so far this week (started 2nd and print out of today shows this).

Admittedly i havn't actually hit a stop loss yet, and when i eventually do it will make a huge blow to profits.

Before anyone rants about my system being stupid due to MM, please just help me out with the info, as it's just the basics of something i want to tweak, and at least i'm testing it on live currencies and not on a meta trader backtester aye!

Thanks for reading and potentially helping

If i havn't explained my system well enough:

Look at a chart, any currency, i am using GBP/USD EUR/USD apart from the fact i get a good bit of interest in carry trades theres no reason why i use them.

For instance lets say GBP/USD, is currently 9715(for example only - these arenot real numbers) has been trading pretty consistently from 9700-9850 on the 15min, i check the 30min and 60 min charts

I've check them and it turns out it's averaging between 9650 and 9900, over say 2-3 weeks.

So of a 250 pip range, we're only 65 pips in, so with probability on our side we should be able to set the stop loss at say 9625 and buy 3 lots and put limits at 25, 35 and 50 pips, a total of 110 pips on the move.

Personally i'm using the bigger stop losses hence why i'm getting 100% results at the moment.

Any input would be great.

you should post this under trading systems... However, remove the "but no idea" portion of the title...

FWIW, I would recommend that you back-test it for at least one year to determine the true probability curve.

Walt

have you considered that your results could be pure luck?

by no means am i discouraging you moving forward.... i just needed to get that out in the open.

Yes i have, but i expected the 150 pip in the minus to stop out, but it didn't.

I will backtest when i can load the software, but to be honest, im just going test in real time and see how it goes over a few weeks and see what happens.

If after a few weeks is still going well, i'll look at developing it to maybe stop out at say 150 pip and take higher profits.

Untill then, like i say, ill accept constructive critisism

I think this system is playing with fire - like you said if you get stopped a lot of your profits will be lost - what aout if you get stopped 3 times in a row???

I think it's an interesting idea and also 1000 pips is 1000 pips. My advice is to work out a way to reduce your stop size and improve your R:R ratio otherwise i fell the market will eventually eat you alive.

I recently had a scalping system that was right 9 times out of 10. Sounds great but the profit was taken at 5 pips above spread and the SL was 15 pips + spread.

All was fine and dandy until I had 3 losses in a row. BAM 2 weeks profits eaten up in 2 hours (if anyone wants to know this system and perhaps help improve it let me know)

THe thing is though I couldn't have narrowed the SL or widened the TP level any more because it would serverly lessen the 90% win rate.

THis is what your system reminds me of on a much smaller scale.

Sounds like you have a solid and original foundation to develop a good system on though. If you can time your entry better and have a better R:R ratio (smaller stop loss) would obviously be key.