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Probability Trades

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jul 11, 2008 4:24pm Jun 19, 2008 1:08am | Edited Jul 11, 2008 4:24pm
Hello fellow traders, my name is George. I have been trading the forex for close to 10 years and I do this full time.

My journal will be based upon a system that is created by a friend of mine. I established my own trading style to produce what I think is the most profitable method for me.

This system provides me with the most probable direction where the trend is going which is a great tool for scalping or short term trading style.

I am going to demo this unique system using FXDD and my goal is to grab 5-10 pip minus spread on the EUR/USD currency pair.

Any trades mentioned/taken in this journal are for my trading purposes only.This is not a signal service and I don't make recommendations as to when and where to jump into trades. Simply stated, this journal is to only document my process and progress as a trader using this system. Since I am only the tester for this system, I can't disclose the different indicators or formulas used to create this system.

These postings are not created to entice other traders to purchase this system. I am testing and documenting this system using my own settings and money management style.

I will post once a day showing my entries and exits.

This journal is not meant as trading advice in anyway.

I close the journal after each entry to prevent other from posting on it.

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #2
  • Edited 8:13am Jun 19, 2008 7:17am | Edited 8:13am
Attached is a pic of the system with the FFCAL indicator which a serious trader should always have displayed.

For demo purposes of this system, you may yawn at the low pip counts but these pips are consistent and should show very little losses if any.

The pip count is not what brings in the money, it is the number of lots calculated in the trades. My goal is to have 20-50 pips a day.

I will try to grab 5 pips with each trade. Using the system, the first 5 pips almost always occur rapidly.

My first trade actually moved 9 pips before I jumped out. My second trade was immediately after my first and this added 5 more pips to my count.

My EUR/USD trade and summary 6/19/08: +14 pips.

On the below account summary, I removed the size of lots and the profit which is not needed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: First Trade 2.jpg Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: First Trade.jpg Size: 147 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #3
  • Edited 8:20am Jun 19, 2008 7:58am | Edited 8:20am
I've been trading for a lot of years and I though that I would share this trick with you. If you scalp the forex, consider keeping the NEW ORDER window open at all times. This will cut anywhere between 5-20 seconds off of your time if you want to jump into a trade. As a scalper, one can gain 1-10 more pips by having this window already open and ready to execute a trade.

Being a big lot trader, this means a lot of extra money for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Suggestion.jpg Size: 140 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #4
  • Jun 20, 2008 10:53am Jun 20, 2008 10:53am
The day is half over but the system gave me four entries and exits so far. Two trades moved rapidly and I just let them ride further than my usual grab my 5 pips and run method.

Total pips 6/20/08 is +60

Total for two days is +74

Wins = 6
Losses = 0
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Day two.jpg Size: 22 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #5
  • Edited 10:19am Jun 23, 2008 3:47am | Edited 10:19am
My system went off several times and resulted in 14 trades so far today.

I will update my trades throughout the day

Total pips 6/23 = +100

Total pips for three days = +174
Ave 8.7 pips per trade

Wins = 20
Losses = 0
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ff4.jpg Size: 80 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #6
  • Edited 9:50am Jun 24, 2008 9:39am | Edited 9:50am
The news was on my side. I stayed busy jumping in and out this morning with 25 short trades on the 1M chart.

Total pips for today, 6/24/2008 = +249

Total pips for three days = +423
Ave 9.4 pips per trade

Keep in mind that I set my take profit in all cases and then walk away from the computer. Today was an exception. My alert was going off so many times, I let a few ride higher than my usual 5-10 pips.

I submitted this info at 9:35 CST so I expect a few more trades throughout the day.

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-24-2008 9-35-56 AM.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-24-2008 9-09-49 AM.png Size: 57 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #7
  • Edited 2:25pm Jun 25, 2008 1:51pm | Edited 2:25pm
I jumped in with 17 trades on the 1M chart this afternoon. One jump occurred hours earlier.

Total pips for today, 6/25/2008 = +172

Total pips for four days = +595
Ave 8.8 pips per trade with 67 trades total.

My alert was going off once so far and ended 10 min ago.

Update: Grabbed 17 more pips 44 min later.


Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-25-2008.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Wed.png Size: 56 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #8
  • Edited 9:25am Jun 26, 2008 2:30am | Edited 9:25am
38 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today.

Total pips so far today, 6/26/2008 = +227

Total pips since 6/20/2008 = +822
Ave 7.6 pips per trade with 107 trades total.

I am now going to take the rest of the day off.


Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-26-2008.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-26-2008 6-47-41 AM.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-26-2008 2-18-16 AM.png Size: 104 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #9
  • Edited 3:07pm Jun 27, 2008 2:52pm | Edited 3:07pm
My system took a break... approx 20 hours since my alerts last went off. I really needed the break too. My alerts went off early this morning and I set my TP too high and I took 17 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart. I then walked away from my computer to find that my trades didn't hit. I chalked it up to being too greedy. Since the trends still pointed in the same direction, I decided to wait until they hit 11 hours later and took a nice profit. I'm thankful that they did before the end of the trading week. The forex is known for spiking when it opens up on Sunday.

Total pips so far today, 6/27/2008 = +97

Total pips since 6/20/2008 = +919
Ave 7.41 pips per trade with 124 trades total.


Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #10
  • Edited Jul 1, 2008 6:04am Jun 30, 2008 7:02am | Edited Jul 1, 2008 6:04am
Started to trade my system on live account this morning. The EUR/USD was slow on Sunday and later that evening I jumped into two trades. Both crept up slowly and I decided to monitor it and use SL toward the very end when the first news event came out. My SL set for a close 5 pips hit when the news hit.

Total pips so far today, 6/30/2008 = +91

Total pips this week = +91
Ave 15.1 pips per trade with 6 trades total.


Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monday.png Size: 13 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #11
  • Edited Jul 2, 2008 9:10am Jul 1, 2008 9:37am | Edited Jul 2, 2008 9:10am
5 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today.

Total pips so far today, 7/1/2008 = +35

Total pips this week = +126
Ave 11.4 pips per trade with 11 trades total.

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #12
  • Edited Jul 3, 2008 9:31am Jul 2, 2008 9:38am | Edited Jul 3, 2008 9:31am
9 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today.

Total pips so far today, 7/1/2008 = +54

Total pips this week = +170
Ave 8.5 pips per trade with 20 trades total.

The 1 pip movements may not seem much to you, but I am a big lot trader.

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #13
  • Edited 12:04pm Jul 3, 2008 9:43am | Edited 12:04pm
7 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today.

Total pips so far today, 7/3/2008 = +82

Total pips this week = +252
Ave 9 pips per trade with 28 trades total.

The 1 pip movements may not seem much to you, but I am a big lot trader.

Although this indicator works well in trending markets, It tested well in today's news events.

This weeks results would be better if I could have dedicated the time to trade this week as I did last week.

Trades will be added throughout the day

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.

Date of yesterdays trades were 7/2 instead of posted 7/1,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Thursday.png Size: 17 KB
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #14
  • Jul 4, 2008 7:36pm Jul 4, 2008 7:36pm
2 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today.

Total pips so far today, 7/4/2008 = +30

Total pips this week = +282
Ave 9.4 pips per trade with 30 trades total.

Today was a holiday for the US and the market moved a few times for a profit.

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.

Happy Independence Day to my fellow traders.
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #15
  • Jul 7, 2008 12:57pm Jul 7, 2008 12:57pm
2 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today.

Total pips today, 7/6/2008 = +12

Total pips this week = +12
Ave 6 pips per trade with 2 trades total.

Very slow Sunday

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #16
  • Jul 7, 2008 1:01pm Jul 7, 2008 1:01pm
4 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today.

Total pips today, 7/7/2008 = +69

Total pips this week = +81

Ave 13.5 pips per trade with 6 trades total.

Also attached is a pic of my new chart setup.


Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7-7-2008 12-15-53 PM.png Size: 48 KB
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #17
  • Edited 11:18am Jul 8, 2008 8:05am | Edited 11:18am
3 trade on the 1M EUR/USD chart today so far.

Total pips today, 7/8/2008 = +43. My daily goal is 25 pips a day.

Total pips this week = +125

Ave 13.8 pips per trade with 9 trades total.

All 3 trades today were result of news events with assistance from the Buyers and Sellers indicator.


Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: save.png Size: 31 KB
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #18
  • Edited Jul 10, 2008 2:39pm Jul 9, 2008 3:40pm | Edited Jul 10, 2008 2:39pm
6 trade on the 1M EUR/USD chart today so far.

Total pips today, 7/9/2008 = +26.

My daily goal is 25 pips Monday - Thur. My goal on Friday and Sunday is 10 pips. I have already exceeded my weekly goal of 120 pips.

Total pips this week = +151

Ave 10 pips per trade with 15 trades total.

All 6 trades today were result of The Probability Meter.

I had meetings throughout the day which resulted in my jumping in and out of trades with short pip attained.

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #19
  • Edited Jul 11, 2008 10:04am Jul 10, 2008 2:38pm | Edited Jul 11, 2008 10:04am
4 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today so far.

Total pips today, 7/10/2008 = +26.

My daily goal is 25 pips Monday - Thur. My goal on Friday and Sunday is 10 pips. I have already exceeded my weekly goal of 120 pips.

Total pips this week = +176

Ave 9.26 pips per trade with 19 trades total.

All 4 trades today were result of The Probability Meter.

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.

I close the journal after each entry to prevent others from posting on it.
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #20
  • Edited 4:21pm Jul 11, 2008 10:03am | Edited 4:21pm
2 trades on the 1M EUR/USD chart today.

Total pips today, 7/11/2008 = +149.

My daily goal is 25 pips Monday - Thur. My goal on Friday and Sunday is 10 pips. I have already exceeded my weekly goal of 120 pips.

Total pips this week = +325

Ave 15.46 pips per trade with 21 trades total.

All 2 trades today were result of The Probability Meter. I jumped out due to meetings this morning. I could have made more pips this afternoon but I far exceeded the amount of pips I was looking for this week.

Last, If you have any questions about this system, please send me a Personal Message Only.

I close the journal after each entry to prevent others from posting on it.
Attached Image
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
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