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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,141
  • Edited 2:29am Jul 7, 2008 2:15am | Edited 2:29am
Quoting zenseven
Dave:
May I give you a little advice

1. Give up GBPUSD.

This advice was read by me in one book by Igrok not so long time ago.
But it works. He has explanation. Why it is better to go other currencies.
I do not want to reproduce.
I need to say it is really good book to learn patterns of Forex. But he is not rigid. He always says that all patterns for forex are not finished.
Trader Igrok is known among russian traders as showing unbelievable results. He has own thread here at forexfactory.com

2. And in reality you do not need 100 pips profits all you need 20-35 pips run
But you need to snowball your positions fast. Square your position after this small move to 1 scout and wait again for next impulse. 2 impulses a day make your day for sure.

All:
Please find attached cut from Robert Balan "Elliote Wave Principle applied to Foreign Exchange Market".
This cut is not about forex itself but about trading, i think it has some resemblance to FTI teachings
Hi zenseven,
Ahh, Bob Balan of Lloyds Bank fame.
Are you his understudy? Wonder what he's been up to?
I believe he is doing consultancy now, but its been a long long time.

regards

@ Lusan & auxesis, thanks for your thoughts. Much oblighed.
Its so hard enough to get it right,
Its so much harder to stay right,.
  • #3,142
  • Jul 7, 2008 2:47am Jul 7, 2008 2:47am
Quoting fti
Hi zenseven,
Ahh, Bob Balan of Lloyds Bank fame.
Are you his understudy? Wonder what he's been up to?
I believe he is doing consultancy now, but its been a long long time.

regards

@ Lusan & auxesis, thanks for your thoughts. Much oblighed.
Its so hard enough to get it right,
Its so much harder to stay right,.
Hi FTI
no i'm not balan's understudy, but i've read his most known book recently for my development in the field of elliot theory

i liked part about using analysis. he says that analysys cannot be rigid but it is feeling ;-)

to be exact igrok book for forex beginners and seasoned guys much more useful

especially if one still does not understand basics of charting

thanks and regards
it's o'k to win ...
  • #3,143
  • Edited 6:12am Jul 7, 2008 5:51am | Edited 6:12am
Careful now, fireworks, fizzing out.
Look for signs. Try not to jump the gun, and be nimble and wise.
The question now, Is the weak USD now retrace or trend??
More signs along the way.
  • #3,144
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:52am Jul 7, 2008 7:52am
Quoting fti
Careful now, fireworks, fizzing out.
Look for signs. Try not to jump the gun, and be nimble and wise.
The question now, Is the weak USD now retrace or trend??
More signs along the way.
Hello Fti and others.
I went short Eur/Jpy last friday towards close of day. This morning I couldnt babysit, right now am down 50% of my equity... not enough to rescue, do you think there could be a retrace or I should just take my hard loss and move on?
Pls help am stranded...
  • #3,145
  • Jul 7, 2008 8:17am Jul 7, 2008 8:17am
Gnat,
Thanks very much Gnat, I got your PM...
  • #3,146
  • Jul 7, 2008 8:18am Jul 7, 2008 8:18am
Quoting 2fx
Gnat,
Thanks very much Gnat, I got your PM...
OK, good to know! But this does probably not really help - please do not overleverage that much in the future!!

Ciao!
Gnat - Matt
  • #3,147
  • Edited 9:19am Jul 7, 2008 8:54am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting 2fx
Hello Fti and others.
I went short Eur/Jpy last friday towards close of day. This morning I couldnt babysit, right now am down 50% of my equity... not enough to rescue, do you think there could be a retrace or I should just take my hard loss and move on?
Pls help am stranded...
Gosh! But we do not go for large overnight open positions. This is well described on many messages. I believe that somebody got into this problem several weeks ago.

You have 2 choices: (1) close some positions and use their leverage for rescue. You might have to repeat that operation many times-, or (2) Pull the plug and promise never to sin again.

Your choice.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #3,148
  • Jul 7, 2008 9:53am Jul 7, 2008 9:53am
Quoting 2fx
Hello Fti and others.
I went short Eur/Jpy last friday towards close of day. This morning I couldnt babysit, right now am down 50% of my equity... not enough to rescue, do you think there could be a retrace or I should just take my hard loss and move on?
Pls help am stranded...
Hi 2fx,

I would suggest tht you cut the loses, stop trading for a while and read this thread carefully, to see where you went wrong.

I recomend you this course of action, as I believe that you may be very inexperienced trader. Moreover you have violated many principles that I deem prudent for traders.

Good Luck
regards.
  • #3,149
  • Jul 7, 2008 9:54am Jul 7, 2008 9:54am
Quoting 2fx
Hello Fti and others.
I went short Eur/Jpy last friday towards close of day. This morning I couldnt babysit, right now am down 50% of my equity... not enough to rescue, do you think there could be a retrace or I should just take my hard loss and move on?
Pls help am stranded...
please practice on demo!!
  • #3,150
  • Edited 1:58pm Jul 7, 2008 11:26am | Edited 1:58pm
Quoting fti
Hi lilpip,
Time out is a good way to rejuvenate the energies. I always encourage it.
this is esp true with profits$$$ to spend, makes it so refreshing.

Try it, then you will be able to feel that the whole world is living on the cheap.

regards
I was to anxious to exicute my plans viewing the e/u 1.5660 area as support
for an uptrend for the day and not putting the same energy into being patient and recognizing the possible change dropping below 5660.
The trade was not going according to plan and I did not have the energy to stay with it so I closed down for the night.
Right now I'm looking to see if todays lows 5610 area holds as support and then a move above 5660 area before I place any scouts long.
Sometimes I think I make my entry point more compicated than it really is but I'm trying to end up on the right side of the trend. Thats one of the reasons why I'm back in class rereading the old post again.
thanks fti and everyone contributing to the thread.

Wow that was fast 5660 to 5755 area thats what we've been waiting for all night.
I'm out at 5750 and waiting to see what tonite brings.
  • #3,151
  • Jul 7, 2008 11:59am Jul 7, 2008 11:59am
Thanks you all for your advises... am still holding on 'hoping' that I can still get some retrace. So far not bad. I will definitely need to go thru the thread again and
Lusan I promise not not to sin again.
Thanks for again
2fx
  • #3,152
  • Edited 1:52pm Jul 7, 2008 12:57pm | Edited 1:52pm
Quoting 2fx
Hello Fti and others.
I went short Eur/Jpy last friday towards close of day. This morning I couldnt babysit, right now am down 50% of my equity... not enough to rescue, do you think there could be a retrace or I should just take my hard loss and move on?
Pls help am stranded...
2fx,
I don't know what to tell ya, you ask about retrace or trend we might find that out tonite.
I see support at 167.80 area but what do I know as it was my turn to bat I had to forfiet the ballgame lastnight because I was sleepy .
  • #3,153
  • Edited 11:00pm Jul 7, 2008 1:07pm | Edited 11:00pm
Hi All,

Outside day reversal against outside day reversal in the USD/eur.
(manipulation at its greatest)
and long long tails in the cable and DLR/Yen.
This one's gonna confuse day chart traders and position traders.
Do not try to Run,
Beware, slippery, much blood on the street.
Selling USD seems good stance now.
Devaluation isn't complete. Maybe tip of iceberg yet.
But please no running be nimble still.
Dance gracefully.

regards
  • #3,154
  • Jul 7, 2008 6:22pm Jul 7, 2008 6:22pm
Hi all,

I've been reading through the 200+ pages for the past few days. I'd like to thank fti and all the contributors for such a brilliant thread.

I'm new to the world of forex, with my studying only beginning a couple of weeks back. Having read numerous threads on multiple forums proposing the next big system to have me making 1000 pips by the end of the week; it was refreshing to stumble upon a thread such as this.

From just reading the first few posts, the things said by fti make perfect sense to me, in such that they ring true on a personal level... on how I'd think of myself approaching trading and the kind of trader I want to become.

Unfortunately due to work, I'll probably be only able to trade forex from 8pm-1am gmt, which is kind of limiting if I hope to trade true to fti's methodology.

I'm only trading demo at the moment (and will be for a few months yet) but I'd like to join in the fun and participate in this thread if that's no problem

Regards,
Dean
  • #3,155
  • Edited 8:42pm Jul 7, 2008 7:07pm | Edited 8:42pm
Im watching e/u 5748 area possible scout short till I can figure out the trend.
any thoughts?
need to practice on attacks.
added @ 5715
closed out at 5708.

I thought the entry point taken at 5633 posted just realized it didn't.
  • #3,156
  • Jul 7, 2008 10:01pm Jul 7, 2008 10:01pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,

Outside day

regards
Hi Fti,

Regarding Outside day, other than its commonly mentioned pattern significance, is there any other things that we should look out for?

I remember you saying something about it before.......
  • #3,157
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:25am Jul 8, 2008 3:25am
Is e/u 1.5736 area going to prove resistance for the day?
I'll find out when I wake up tomorrow.
goodnight
  • #3,158
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:45am Jul 8, 2008 3:45am
fti

still searching for info on 'hip and lop' patterns that you mentioned very early in the thread, no luck as yet can you please help ?

btw lucky bid on ebay today for 'paper money' can't wait to read it, but will be several weeks as i am in australia.

many thanks for all your pearls of wisdom and generous sharing of your knowledge

joy
  • #3,159
  • Jul 8, 2008 8:05am Jul 8, 2008 8:05am
Quoting fti
David,
Iam not sure, but you seem to be moving further and further from the basics.
Time to recap your MO esp mindset.


regards
Thank you for your kind words and my appreciations to other friends' comments.

You are a master, fti. I am not as good dancing as you, my shifu(sihfu).

From June 9th to Jun 25th, about 13 days, I realized about 250% profit, but on 28th when G/U went to 1.9994, I got a margin call, just 10 pips from the highest! This happened for the 4th time in about 3 months to my Fxsol account. All profits gone. A trigger problem happened again to me.

The other accounts are OK. I' rather discuss my failure not success.

I will tell you the details with the chart on Saturday when I will have time. So we can have more discussions.

P.S. The volitility range is from 80 to 150 for E/U and 100~ 200 pips for G/U. 20 pips profit is definatley not my target, the reason is obvious. Of course, when I need to reduce the size, I won't think about how much pips I made or lost.

David
  • #3,160
  • Jul 8, 2008 9:45am Jul 8, 2008 9:45am
Quoting sitoca
Hi Fti,

Regarding Outside day, other than its commonly mentioned pattern significance, is there any other things that we should look out for?

I remember you saying something about it before.......
Hi sitoca,
sorry , that an incomplete posting was posted, as I jumpped the gun.
Please reread posting for the thoughts.

regards.
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