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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #14,501
  • Edited 3:07pm Jul 7, 2008 2:45pm | Edited 3:07pm
In the chart below we see the GBP/JPY in the confines of the H4/daily channel started around 17th March - nearly 4 months ago.

Long would seem the way to go but at the top of the chart we see strong resistance in the form of the orange bar and this formed strong support in January and strong resistance in february 2008. So it's not going to go up much.

Below you can see the bottom of the channel which also is coinciding with the 200sma. This should provide some support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy1.gif Size: 25 KB


Interestingly, on the daily chart (below) at the moment, the 200sma corresponds to the orange line of resistance and could make this resistance stronger. If we look at the daily scenario my trend lines point to a break out at the end of the month. It could be explosive. My guess is it will be - and down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily1.gif Size: 26 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #14,502
  • Jul 7, 2008 2:57pm Jul 7, 2008 2:57pm
But if you want to see something, the funniest thing that's been on FF for a while, go to The Moe: "I am dying" thread and look at this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=30
Gone to a better place
  • #14,503
  • Jul 7, 2008 6:56pm Jul 7, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting smikester
But if you want to see something, the funniest thing that's been on FF for a while, go to The Moe: "I am dying" thread and look at this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=30

Thanks for the analysis and the laugh, both very good.
  • #14,504
  • Jul 7, 2008 8:26pm Jul 7, 2008 8:26pm
what about my 217.33? did it turn into 214.00? dangit
  • #14,505
  • Jul 7, 2008 8:50pm Jul 7, 2008 8:50pm
Until this moment, the major lower red trendlines still stand as a strong support and a true breakout would bolster the bearish continuation trend scenario. But please be carefull any strong bounce which is would favour to the alt count in white. Preferably, I'm looking forward for a bearish trend later within this week. Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1hb.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #14,506
  • Jul 8, 2008 1:25am Jul 8, 2008 1:25am
Quoting dukeofdents
While I'm not a big afficianado of one system or another, 4hr vegas combined with candlestick analysis seems okay on this one, and screw the G7, get your money this week:
Good luck to you, duke! It's a safe bet.
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  • #14,507
  • Jul 8, 2008 1:27am Jul 8, 2008 1:27am
Quoting Jebatfx
Until this moment, the major lower red trendlines still stand as a strong support and a true breakout would bolster the bearish continuation trend scenario. But please be carefull any strong bounce which is would favour to the alt count in white. Preferably, I'm looking forward for a bearish trend later within this week. Good luck.
Good luck to you too, Jebatfx.
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  • #14,508
  • Jul 8, 2008 1:44am Jul 8, 2008 1:44am
Quoting zawodowiec
I guess a lot depends on what will be said in the G7 meeting. However, here's a chart showing a key support. Unless it is broken, this can be a good place to go long. What do you think?
This chart is too old to show the forum. What are you trying to pull? An example of the profits? Well, then tell us that! Otherwise, post a current chart please.
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  • #14,509
  • Jul 8, 2008 2:15am Jul 8, 2008 2:15am
Quoting forexpert
This chart is too old to show the forum. What are you trying to pull? An example of the profits? Well, then tell us that! Otherwise, post a current chart please.
Sorry mate....

but the chart is that old, because the post you are quoting is also a year old nearly to the minute. And the Duke has been around recently for a split second, but from his post you could see, that he quit trading and also quit paying federal income tax. So one bad and one good decision!

Have a good one!
Ciao!
Gnat
  • #14,510
  • Jul 8, 2008 8:49pm Jul 8, 2008 8:49pm
Until this moment, price already break the lower yellow trendline but bounce back from the major lower red trendline. I'm looking forward for a another downside movement (2nd attempt) and a true breakout would bolster either the alt count in yellow or magenta scenario. Otherwise please be carefull for any breakout to the 212.40 h-line. Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1hb.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #14,511
  • Jul 9, 2008 9:31pm Jul 9, 2008 9:31pm
I believed subwave 2 (cyan) is already completed and looking forward for a bearish continuation to complete subwave 3 (cyan). As long the price moving inside the downtrend channel trendline, this scenario is valid. Otherwise if the price make a breakout to the upper green trendline, this scenario would be in doubt. Please analyse all critical lines and good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1hb.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #14,512
  • Jul 10, 2008 11:52am Jul 10, 2008 11:52am
At the moment, market in hedging phase and still inside the downtrend channel. Its hard to determine which trend is more preferable right now. Also please be extra carefull regarding the ascending triangle pattern if valid and don't forget to protect your entry with SL. Please refer towards more bigger TF as your control trading strategy such as BSTS 2 Weekly. Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1hb.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #14,513
  • Jul 10, 2008 9:13pm Jul 10, 2008 9:13pm
At this time, I'm looking forward for any breakout from the teal triangle corrective area and please noted that any breakout is possible. Therefore please look for any good entry setup signal from BSTS before making any entry. Have a nice weekends.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1hb.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #14,514
  • Jul 12, 2008 2:03am Jul 12, 2008 2:03am
Quoting smikester
In the chart below we see the GBP/JPY in the confines of the H4/daily channel started around 17th March - nearly 4 months ago.

Long would seem the way to go but at the top of the chart we see strong resistance in the form of the orange bar and this formed strong support in January and strong resistance in february 2008. So it's not going to go up much.

Below you can see the bottom of the channel which also is coinciding with the 200sma. This should provide some support.

Attachment

Interestingly, on the daily chart (below) at the moment, the 200sma corresponds to the orange line of resistance and could make this resistance stronger. If we look at the daily scenario my trend lines point to a break out at the end of the month. It could be explosive. My guess is it will be - and down.

Attachment
Ah-ha! Thank you Smikester. I have been looking at this setup and wondering about the likely outcome. My chart I drew slightly differently and got this very interesting focus.

This chart is a couple of days old now, but the price has traded sideways within the triangle - accepting yesterdays aberration due to Wall Street.

The current price level has significance back at the beginning of 2006. Resorting to a look at the fundamentals I agree with you that down is the most likely direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dragon_080710.jpg Size: 45 KB
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #14,515
  • Jul 13, 2008 9:23pm Jul 13, 2008 9:23pm
I'm looking forward for a completion confirmation of subwave 2 (yellow) before expecting a bearish continuation trend later. But please be carefull for any possibility refering to the alt count in white. Looking for a breakout soon. Good luck.

p/s : extra tips - please analyse Eur/Jpy tf 4H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1hb.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #14,516
  • Jul 14, 2008 2:35am Jul 14, 2008 2:35am
Thanks for the input Primate. Let's wait and see and maybe not get our fingers burned?

Jebatfx: Keep 'em coming. Those charts really brighten up my mornings.
Gone to a better place
  • #14,517
  • Jul 14, 2008 4:46am Jul 14, 2008 4:46am
http://bp2.blogger.com/_nmIuQsC9b-Q/...r++GBP+JPY.png
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  • #14,518
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:27am Jul 14, 2008 10:27am
Quoting Algirdas
http://bp2.blogger.com/_nmIuQsC9b-Q/...r++GBP+JPY.png
Hello, just a question of clarification since I just saw your chart:

you have here a blue bold line on the chart ~ 212,20/30
which is supposed to be the pivot
where to enter the market (here short).

but also a blue dashed line ~ 211,71.
Is this your TP?

Are my assumption correct? Thanks for clarifying it.
  • #14,519
  • Jul 14, 2008 11:13am Jul 14, 2008 11:13am
http://bp3.blogger.com/_nmIuQsC9b-Q/...r++GBP+JPY.png
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  • #14,520
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:13pm Jul 14, 2008 9:13pm
Price still inside the teal rectangle zone. I believed subwave 2 (yellow) is already completed and looking forward for a downside movement to bolster the bearish continuation scenario to perform subwave 3 (yellow). A further breakout to the white critical line would enhance this point of view. Otherwise please be carefull for any upside movement. Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1hb.gif Size: 50 KB
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