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  • #781
  • Feb 6, 2007 1:57pm Feb 6, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting steviet
OK, EU short just stopped out for minus 19 pips. Will be going long later so would like a little retracement by close for a better entry price.

Kind Regards
Steve
I just hope & pray to god that it doesn't go back down and get stopped again lol, it's been getting on nerves lately..

I looked at the 4hr chart.. you can't really put this system on that time-frame, it's pretty tough since most of the time the next candle either breaks the low/high of the previous but like you mentioned in one of your posts, it's good to trade on 4hr and grab some pips when the market ranges rather than keep getting stopped out day after another.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #782
  • Feb 6, 2007 2:12pm Feb 6, 2007 2:12pm
this is it, this is the test! from your back-testing how long did you find your were stuck in break-even or losing periods? we know you've had three good months so far but sooner or later you will turn into a rough patch.

keep the faith bro, and stick with your system!
(we're all here to cheer you on: GO, STEVIE, GO!!!)

btw, there is no harm in experimenting while you forward test: if you have the time then try out the 4h on another account. the danger like you said is mixing the two which normally spells disaster...

Quoting steviet
Sorry bro - market is killing this method at the moment - I knew it would happen but it's different going through all the emotions live rather than just totting it up on a calculator whilst backtesting.

I've got to stick with it because this is where you are tested the most and I'm really looking forward to more profitable times.

Annoying thing is I see green pips on all these trades but following trends you have to bite the bullet & wait for the big ones to more than pay you back for the losses.

We are only just over a quarter of the way through testing and overall results are near enough as expected. I must see it through to the end and then I'll be sure whether I've found my way of trading or whether I need to look again at how to improve/tweak the method. If I don't do that I'm only cheating the system. Until then I don't change a thing.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #783
  • Feb 6, 2007 2:14pm Feb 6, 2007 2:14pm
you have more noise to deal with and have to pay more attention to all those annoying reports.

daily charts are far easier and more profitable.

Quoting karmostaji
I just hope & pray to god that it doesn't go back down and get stopped again lol, it's been getting on nerves lately..

I looked at the 4hr chart.. you can't really put this system on that time-frame, it's pretty tough since most of the time the next candle either breaks the low/high of the previous but like you mentioned in one of your posts, it's good to trade on 4hr and grab some pips when the market ranges rather than keep getting stopped out day after another.
  • #784
  • Feb 6, 2007 2:24pm Feb 6, 2007 2:24pm
when i started out it was always the system that was wrong never me (the trader)...

...after i acquired a little knowledge (and experience) i started to realise it might be me or the system...

...after a (long) while i've come to the conclusion it's always the trader and not the system (that is, if the system has survived a proper back-test and comes up trumps!)...

i think trading is purely about your mindset once you have a profitable system. i find nowadays the greatest opponent is not Mr Market but my state of mind while conducting a trade. to the extent that i just use Mr Market to keep score of how well i stick to my plan and follow the rules.

Quoting steviet
Exactly!

See, you can be quite articulate when you want to be

I think many traders, especially newbies jump from system to system only to find the grass is not greener on the other side. Once you realise it's not the system but the trader in most cases, you are more than halfway there.

Cheers for the support bro & just getting the t-shirt & shorts out for those sunnier days

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #785
  • Feb 6, 2007 2:33pm Feb 6, 2007 2:33pm
if i could make one more suggestion steve...(oh no! i hear the groans already!!)

...don't keep printing your totals all the time!!!

i think you're a positive person and can take these knocks and that this style of trading seems to fit your personality really well.

however when the chips are down you might be looking at your performance so far to keep your spirits up...(i'm just guessing about all of this btw!)

so far with your performance it works but on a losing streak it might be counterproductive.

i just look at my totals once a month - during the month i don't really care how far up or down it goes. since I have strict MM i don't really see myself losing a whole bunch by not monitoring it (hopefully).

stick with the charts, and let the totals take care of themselves!

maybe i'm butting in with unwanted advice here so my bad (if i am). it's just that i rarely read a great trading thread anymore by a budding trader that i can see loads of potential in, so maybe i need to butt out a bit more i guess...

Quoting steviet
That's great news Mark - well done

Obviously on the 4 hour charts it would be more difficult to stay in a big trend but at least you can pick up some pips when the market is as difficult as it is now. Normally, even ranges you can come out at least break even on the daily's but the last two weeks or so have been pure evil

I'm still very positive as it's only Feb 6th - you never know, I may break even or better come month's end coz when the market does decide to go, it's time to pick up the hundred plus pip winners again.

Overall, increase in account balance has been.....

Nov 06: plus 7.08%
Dec 06: plus 12.00%
Jan 07: plus 10.54%
Feb 07: minus 6.73%

So, overall I'm up well over 20% from the start which can't be bad can it???

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #786
  • Feb 6, 2007 3:02pm Feb 6, 2007 3:02pm
Quoting Isotonic
if i could make one more suggestion steve...(oh no! i hear the groans already!!)

...don't keep printing your totals all the time!!!

i think you're a positive person and can take these knocks and that this style of trading seems to fit your personality really well.

however when the chips are down you might be looking at your performance so far to keep your spirits up...(i'm just guessing about all of this btw!)

so far with your performance it works but on a losing streak it might be counterproductive.

i just look at my totals once a month - during the month i don't really care how far up or down it goes. since I have strict MM i don't really see myself losing a whole bunch by not monitoring it (hopefully).

stick with the charts, and let the totals take care of themselves!

maybe i'm butting in with unwanted advice here so my bad (if i am). it's just that i rarely read a great trading thread anymore by a budding trader that i can see loads of potential in, so maybe i need to butt out a bit more i guess...
You butt in as much as you like

About the numbers......I'm a numbers man (sad I know hehe) but I do see your point. I just like to note where I am so I'll be able to go back through the thread later on this year and see what was happening through the good times & not so good times.

Anyhow, can't wait for the first profitable trade in Feb - might have to throw a party hehe.

You did warn me on page one of this thread that this would happen at some point and here we are - a long string of losers lol. Going through the backtesting there were a few periods like this, often not quite so whipsawey (is that a word?) as this one. Often what happens is although the market is indecisve for a short while, there is still a big enough range to pick up some winners amongst the losing trades.

Looking positively, EU (double bottom & bullish engulfing bar) & GU may well be starting on a run - they have moved in sync properly for the first time in Feb with UCHF & UJ going down as well. I've even held onto a USDCAD trade for more than two days so things must be looking up

Thanks for your comments, constructive & supportive as always

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #787
  • Feb 6, 2007 3:51pm Feb 6, 2007 3:51pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
OK. My question is this?

If we are using D1 charts, should we not be using longer s/l?? say week high/low. It seems as though some decisions being taken are the correct ones and that our stop losses are too tight?

Your thoughts please..

mark
  • #788
  • Feb 6, 2007 4:07pm Feb 6, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting markt
OK. My question is this?

If we are using D1 charts, should we not be using longer s/l?? say week high/low. It seems as though some decisions being taken are the correct ones and that our stop losses are too tight?

Your thoughts please..

mark
Hi Mark,

There are lots of different things you could do with this method to personalise it. Best thing is to backtest it thoroughly to see how it performs then forward test on a demo or micro.

It would keep you in more trades and therefore fewer stop outs but the stop outs would generally be bigger - look at my s/l today being hit on GU, EU, UCHF for example. I got away with fairly small losses - how would you be feeling if yours was another 50-100 pips away and looking like it may get hit tomorrow. Also, by its nature, you would miss more of the first and last part of the trend I think. I could be wrong (often am lol) and it may turn out more profitable.

It's all about being comfortable with YOUR system and then trading it as is consistently. I'm comfortable with mine and hope that by the end of the 12 months I'm vindicated in sticking to it. Time will tell....

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #789
  • Feb 6, 2007 4:11pm Feb 6, 2007 4:11pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Point taken... looking forward to waking up one (tomorrow) morning to see a lot more trades in positive territory!! thanks
  • #790
  • Feb 6, 2007 4:18pm Feb 6, 2007 4:18pm
OK, two trades still running and stop losses tightened on USDJPY at least....

USDJPY short from 120.31 (s/l 120.66 guarantees minus 35 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1847 (s/l 1.1800 guarantees minus 47 pips)

New trades.....

USDCHF short from 1.2398 (s/l 1.2509 guarantees minus 111 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9712 (s/l 1.9578 guarantees minus 134 pips)
EURUSD long from 1.2984 (s/l 1.2902 guarantees minus 82 pips)

The new trades have been taken with lower pip size as account balance has currently dipped below $200. Big moves today which means larger s/l initially.

EURUSD double bottom & bullish engulfing candle, GU bullish engulfing & UCHF fell heavily too. Often after such large moves, the next candle is consolidating in nature so patience is required.

I prefer to see an uptrend start with a couple of small bullish candles then BOOM or alternatively a nice doji followed by a bull candle to confirm reversal. Oh well, can't have everything hehe

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #791
  • Feb 6, 2007 4:20pm Feb 6, 2007 4:20pm
Quoting markt
Point taken... looking forward to waking up one (tomorrow) morning to see a lot more trades in positive territory!! thanks
All you can do is mess around with backtesting if you want to trade on the daily charts. I did and came up with this - I'm sure there are better methods and I may after 12 months think I need to make changes but once I make a decision based on what I think is a winning method (over the long term) I have to stick to it come what may.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #792
  • Feb 6, 2007 9:48pm Feb 6, 2007 9:48pm
Hi Steve

I am enjoying the thread, thank you for the many postings. Did I read somewhere way back that you were risking 4 cents a pip..? If so that's a good way to trial a system, better than paper trading. My question is who do you trade with to be able to place such small lots and do they have good spreads i.e. GU 3 pips EU 2 pips etc.

Thanks for all your effort, I can imagine you will be quite sick of all the typing after the 12 months of postings....

Regards
Peter
  • #793
  • Feb 6, 2007 11:41pm Feb 6, 2007 11:41pm
Quoting barndat
Hi Steve

I am enjoying the thread, thank you for the many postings. Did I read somewhere way back that you were risking 4 cents a pip..? If so that's a good way to trial a system, better than paper trading. My question is who do you trade with to be able to place such small lots and do they have good spreads i.e. GU 3 pips EU 2 pips etc.

Thanks for all your effort, I can imagine you will be quite sick of all the typing after the 12 months of postings....

Regards
Peter
As per information provided by Steve in one of his posts in this thread
( sorry got to search again for posting the link), he trades with Marketiva.
  • #794
  • Feb 7, 2007 6:24am Feb 7, 2007 6:24am
USDJPY short stopped out for minus 35 pips lol. Things were going nicely down and threatening to break 120 properly until someone says they are not going to be talking about yen weakness at the weekend G7 meeting.

Result is that UJ forms a nice double bottom and here we go again. We are seeing a constant pattern in the majors in the last weeks of a big bullish or bearish daily bar, followed by consolidation the next day and then reversal the day after. Kills the system stone dead but I'm not going anywhere.

Sorry Isotonic, cover your eyes - here come the numbers :

Net Pip Gain Feb 07: minus 445 pips
Cumulative since Nov 06: plus 1523 pips
A/c Bal Increase Feb 07: minus 7.63%
Increases So Far: Nov +7.08%, Dec +12.00%, Jan +10.54%, Feb -7.63%

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #795
  • Feb 7, 2007 7:22am Feb 7, 2007 7:22am
Hi,

Thanks Steve for this great system.

I did some backtesting (2004 until now) on the Cable. I can assure you: it works. At least more than 2000 pips per year, sometimes much more (up to 4000), just for the Cable. One trade gaves 680 pips in 2004!!!! I will post in few days the results. I am still checking them. I got some differences with Steve because I am based in Singapore, so my opening is 7pm EST.

To conclude, just stick to the system, money will come soon. It can be stuck for 3-4 weeks!! So be patient! But we all know now that Steve is very disciplined. The quality of great traders!

Valérie
  • #796
  • Feb 7, 2007 9:09am Feb 7, 2007 9:09am
Hey Steviet,

The bright side in all of this is if anyone is wanting to test your system, now may be a good time since they may have missed out on January to start. Then they didn't have to suffer through the 7% loss. .

Your system still rocks!!!!!!!
  • #797
  • Feb 7, 2007 11:22am Feb 7, 2007 11:22am
Quoting datagram
Hi,

Thanks Steve for this great system.

I did some backtesting (2004 until now) on the Cable. I can assure you: it works. At least more than 2000 pips per year, sometimes much more (up to 4000), just for the Cable. One trade gaves 680 pips in 2004!!!! I will post in few days the results. I am still checking them. I got some differences with Steve because I am based in Singapore, so my opening is 7pm EST.

To conclude, just stick to the system, money will come soon. It can be stuck for 3-4 weeks!! So be patient! But we all know now that Steve is very disciplined. The quality of great traders!

Valérie
Hi Valerie,

Yup, I know it will work - cable should bring the most pips from the pairs I trade. That's good to know of the 680 pips in 2004 - I just backtested 2005/2006. We have had a 761 pip winner and various trades over 200 mark so I know they will come

Thanks for your kind words

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #798
  • Feb 7, 2007 11:23am Feb 7, 2007 11:23am
Quoting llambert3
Hey Steviet,

The bright side in all of this is if anyone is wanting to test your system, now may be a good time since they may have missed out on January to start. Then they didn't have to suffer through the 7% loss. .

Your system still rocks!!!!!!!
LOL - I reckon it still rocks - just in a rocky period at the mo but patience is king

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #799
  • Feb 7, 2007 11:46am Feb 7, 2007 11:46am
Hey Steve, im new to this forum, but it seems like you are rockin on really well. Just wondering if you have posted your system rules and indicators. If so could you please put up a link so i can check it out.

Thank you
All the best in your trading
  • #800
  • Feb 7, 2007 11:54am Feb 7, 2007 11:54am
Quoting nikim
Hey Steve, im new to this forum, but it seems like you are rockin on really well. Just wondering if you have posted your system rules and indicators. If so could you please put up a link so i can check it out.

Thank you
All the best in your trading
Hi & welcome

If you go back to the first few pages of the journal, my rules are posted there. Take note especially to my money management policy - this is really important as there are times when you will have a string of losers as we are experiencing just now. The system is based on following the trend and when you do you can pick up some big winners. When the market gets stuck in a tight range as it has been these past couple of weeks, you need the discipline to accept the losers, knowing a winning trade is right around the corner.

No real indicators are used but do grab yourself a cup of coffee or three and have a good read. Also remember this is a method I am testing live so they are not necessarily trade recommendations, just my journal of trades

Kind Regards
Steve
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