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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #99,221
  • Jul 4, 2008 8:21am Jul 4, 2008 8:21am
Quoting belekas
YM is clearly sitting on FE78.6 level @ 11262 . If the weekly candle closes as a pinbar so that would be above FE78.6 level to be valid pin, and in confluence of the descending red dotted tl ive drawn, then we should go up for a retrace, having in mind that LH and LL. Anyone trading YM take a look
BRATKO, that''s typical Midlle finger Pattern... hm..
  • #99,222
  • Jul 4, 2008 8:29am Jul 4, 2008 8:29am
Quoting Piters
BRATKO, that''s typical Midlle finger Pattern... hm..
Da bratan, i see the same If it closes 11285 or higher then it will be valid pinocchio bar and we should climb up. Might be sign of reversal/retracement in progress...
  • #99,223
  • Jul 4, 2008 8:36am Jul 4, 2008 8:36am
If i was keeping any shorts on EURO i would have taken partial profit at the point i have highlighted, if FE50 and descending tl that is beying retested are cleared then next level FE38.2 .55791 is on the cards. It has retraced 61.8% and this are with confluence of FE50 and broken tl that is beying retested might give a good bounce up. But weekly cande looks like a pinbar if it closes that way, then shorts are very strong indeed
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  • #99,224
  • Jul 4, 2008 8:59am Jul 4, 2008 8:59am
She is retesting the broken weekly tl, and we have confluence with 50% fib retrace. Ill just watch PA around this level, maybe its the end of the up moove and we are doing down, who knows

Any comments guys?
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  • #99,225
  • Jul 4, 2008 9:07am Jul 4, 2008 9:07am
Yen weekly preasure points

think she ran out of gass for now
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #99,226
  • Jul 4, 2008 9:10am Jul 4, 2008 9:10am
But those weekly pin's on UJ & GJ are telling there should be more space up, so UJ might be going for a full 50% retrace to 109.93-110 that means GJ will climp maybe to its 50% retrace level of whole down moove started @ 251, so that would be around 221.78. In the way theres 38.2% @ 214.87 and a little above theres neckline from the big weekly GJ h&s pattern, so they have to be taken out first.

Then again the price mooves only up and down, but still...So lets just watch PA around important levels and dont jump the gun, market will be here tommorow and next day after tommorow ( hopefully LOL)

cheers crew!
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  • #99,227
  • Jul 4, 2008 9:45am Jul 4, 2008 9:45am
One last chart before i go out.

Personaly i would like to see 38.2% retrace @ 214.98. The point ive highlited is in confluence with broken h&s neckline, dayly descending tl and lrc in green. If price can get up to this point i think we might see quit a nice bounce to the south-side

Anyway lets just ride the waves big boys are doing and make money
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  • #99,228
  • Edited 11:07am Jul 4, 2008 9:51am | Edited 11:07am
Ok, i understand there is a lot of people that say GJ is in down trend and will continue down. It could be, but all the graphs seem forget it was in an up trend before the fall, and if you take a look at EJ, or other Yen pairs, you'll see the lows of the past year and they are clear. Too add, Historically GU is bullish. Three months goes by, still up, when will you jump on the ride up? 220? It doesn't bother me that some see it going down, I'm just contributing my views. Happy Fourth Everyone.


gbp/jpy, higher highs expected above 250
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gbp/aud downtrend, it could rally, or go down a bit more, but more likely a year of range
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  • #99,229
  • Jul 4, 2008 11:45am Jul 4, 2008 11:45am
I thought instead of fretting baout direction of GJ .... just do something that no one else talks about . Look at obscure time frames like a 8 hour chart.

On the 8 hour chart it is fairly simple . The GJ is pivoting around the 50 sma.

every 8 hours I look at the chart 0900 , 5 pm and 1am ( well I look at this one 4am). If the candle goes up thru the 50 sma I place a buy stop order 75 pips higher than the top of the candle ( to make sure that if in fact a trend continuation is in play) opposite for sells. If this pair breaks out of range going down to 207 / 205 or up to 215 / 220 i am ready for her.

There are way better pairs out there to intraday trade right now including my favs gbpcad , gbpchf and eurcad.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #99,230
  • Jul 4, 2008 11:47am Jul 4, 2008 11:47am
Quoting Clouds
Ok, i understand there is a lot of people that say GJ is in down trend and will continue down. It could be, but all the graphs seem forget it was in an up trend before the fall, and if you take a look at EJ, or other Yen pairs, you'll see the lows of the past year and they are clear. Too add, Historically GU is bullish. Three months goes by, still up, when will you jump on the ride up? 220? It doesn't bother me that some see it going down, I'm just contributing my views. Happy Fourth Everyone.


gbp/jpy, higher highs expected above 250
Attachment

gbp/aud downtrend, it could rally, or go down a bit more, but more likely a year of range
Attachment

Clouds .

that chart looks like a bear flag to me ..... just a simple observation
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #99,231
  • Jul 4, 2008 11:49am Jul 4, 2008 11:49am
Quoting malcolmb14
There are way better pairs out there to intraday trade right now including my favs gbpcad , gbpchf and eurcad.

Attachment
Ive been playing around with EU. EC looks extreme, good for u
  • #99,232
  • Jul 4, 2008 11:56am Jul 4, 2008 11:56am
Quoting malcolmb14
Clouds .

that chart looks like a bear flag to me ..... just a simple observation
why do you see a bear flag? 3 monthly candles up, do you see a bear flag too on EJ? it's got same 3 monthly candles up. Well, no worries, we all see different things.
  • #99,233
  • Jul 4, 2008 11:58am Jul 4, 2008 11:58am
Quoting belekas
YM is clearly sitting on FE78.6 level @ 11262 . If the weekly candle closes as a pinbar so that would be above FE78.6 level to be valid pin, and in confluence of the descending red dotted tl ive drawn, then we should go up for a retrace, having in mind that LH and LL. Anyone trading YM take a look
I think we may see 10800 in the coming week or so as this major break level has not been tested.

However there are some trains of thought that suggest major reversals occur after the major holidays and the daily is very oversold

However there is no good news on the horizon and the threat of war is going to hold oil and gold prices high ( oil as if Iran is attacked they will likely target all oil facilitites in the Middle East)

Oil is effecting companines bottoms lines so thius earning season and next earning season may not be the best

We may get a little retrace , that would sprak renewed selling interest.

I day trade the YM so it does not matter to me what it does , in fact on any given day I may make 4 - 5 trades both side of the market.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #99,234
  • Jul 4, 2008 12:07pm Jul 4, 2008 12:07pm
Quoting Clouds
why do you see a bear flag? 3 monthly candles up, do you see a bear flag too on EJ? it's got same 3 monthly candles up. Well, no worries, we all see different things.
Clouds ..I am not criticising you... but bear flags on longer term time frames can last a long time

EURJPY is not a bear flag on the weekly at all ..... EUR has been very strong, however .... lol ... there is always a however ... we may be in for a double top as there is MASSIVE bearish divergence on the RSI with 2 dojis side by side on the weekly.

GBPJPY has formed what I think may be a bear flag on the weekly and has tested ( and is now finding support on)_ the 38% fib of the move down. As we know the GJ loves the 38% fib retracement of major moves. Again we have double dojis on the weekly.

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  • #99,235
  • Jul 4, 2008 12:08pm Jul 4, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting malcolmb14

I day trade the YM so it does not matter to me what it does , in fact on any given day I may make 4 - 5 trades both side of the market.

Hi malcolmb14,

can you tell me what "YM" is ?

thanks
  • #99,236
  • Jul 4, 2008 12:14pm Jul 4, 2008 12:14pm
malcolm,
thanks for refreshing my memory about cad, plus they are not on holiday today. thanks.
  • #99,237
  • Jul 4, 2008 12:20pm Jul 4, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting Clouds
malcolm,
thanks for refreshing my memory about cad, plus they are not on holiday today. thanks.
Long eur/cad, gbp/cad, aud/cad,
  • #99,238
  • Jul 4, 2008 12:25pm Jul 4, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting Titus
Hi malcolmb14,

can you tell me what "YM" is ?

thanks
YM ( along with other futures including eurostoxx 50 and es(s$p minis) are a beast. YM are the dj emini futures. They trade at $5 per point per contract

In any given day they can move up to 400 points .. yes you read right 400 points , from US market open to close at 4pm EST. Wednesday was a 500 point day. All you need to do is make 50 points in one of the moves and you are set for the day.

Volume is typically about 200, 000 contracts per day , but liquidity never seems to be an issue getting in and out with 5 - 20 contracts. If you want to trade a futures contract with higher volume the ES trades at about 2 million contracts per day.

The beauty of trading futures over forex is that one can use Market Delta to see inside the chart and see the ' real volume' of where the buyers and sellers are.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #99,239
  • Jul 4, 2008 12:29pm Jul 4, 2008 12:29pm
Quoting Clouds
Long eur/cad, gbp/cad, aud/cad,
good man ..... just watch those guys on a long weekend.... eurcad and gbpcad in particular.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #99,240
  • Jul 4, 2008 12:31pm Jul 4, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I think we may see 10800 in the coming week or so as this major break level has not been tested.

However there are some trains of thought that suggest major reversals occur after the major holidays and the daily is very oversold

However there is no good news on the horizon and the threat of war is going to hold oil and gold prices high ( oil as if Iran is attacked they will likely target all oil facilitites in the Middle East)

Oil is effecting companines bottoms lines so thius earning season and next earning season may not be the best

We may get a little retrace , that would sprak renewed selling interest.

I day trade the YM so it does not matter to me what it does , in fact on any given day I may make 4 - 5 trades both side of the market.
all respect to your opinion. however, i don't see why a retracement is impossible, unlikely, or even doubtable. this sucker dropped some 2000 pips without any significant retracement or consolidation. dailies are highly oversold so are weeklies as you mentioned. a 1000 pip retracement shouldn't even be considered as a change of trend, not that i'm saying it won't happen. the economic conditions aren't worse than they have been 2 months ago. we are just FEELING the consequences right now of that massively bad economy. i'm sure big players knew that ahead of time, especially when the dow was going up for a 61.8 retracement (1600+ pips) starting from march and still didn't change the major trend that started on october of last year.

yes i know this could keep on going down. but a retracement is on the cards.

the price is at FE161.8 of it's downtrend. yes it has been breached on a weekly level, but weeklies can have a 200 pip range and still considered respecting that level. i've attached another chart to describe what i mean.

bottom line. i'm expecting back to 11600 at LEAST (11900 more likely, more? who knows...) then back down again.


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