whether would 2008 year become 2005 for EURO?

whether would 2008 become 2005 ?

It is a chart only. I should think it is hardly posiible to repeat 2005. Though it is like measured move..

Happy New Year and Merry Christmas to all !

well from fundamental point, it shouldnt, the presidental elections in usa were in november 2004 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_2004, and the dolar was bearish till early 05,...in late 08 the US presidental elections are also held, and the dolar should be bearish, BUT, it is high probabilities for Democrats to Win, so it may be trending to the oposite side then previous,...i still think the dolar will be bearish in 08. till late 08, thanks.
others?

I think the one rule I've learned in dealing with the forex is "Nothing is ever impossible". From a fundamental standpoint, I think at least the first half of the year could be very sideways for the EUR/USD. Right now it seems the negative fundamental factors affecting the USD are starting to spread to the European countries. I believe there will be more of a tug-of-war to see whose economy is being hurt more. Towards the end of 2008 there will be a lot more influence from the election, but I don't believe that will start picking up until July-August and on through the beginning of 2009.

I'm currently short on the EUR/USD as far as my long term trades. However we have already hit my first decision area on where to take profit. If 1.4350 is decisively broken I will continue to hold. However going into this worldwide holiday, I think we're done as far as decisiveness for the year.

There are some significant probability for up & down Euro.

1. I should think up is about 40% (signed by magenta to none color at the diagramm). Here resistance line would become the support line, the speed of trend would decrease. It is not concept — just a probable direction. I should never advice anyone to use such plotting to predict the future. The case is not rule.
2. Down is 20% (resistant crosses 2009 at 1.3)
3. Other 40%

when I have a look at State Debt of US there is appearing strange imagination.

It seems to me FRS could be interested in weak dollar. And maybe it is FRS who is really interested in the sequel of euro increasing.

FRS would prove it is world financial crisis and believe that dollar falling is satisfactory problem solution.

I am not sure of it at all...

I propose modern economics is not designed for big savings. FRS have to decide a very serious problem.

If China and Russia had invested money in their ground environment or smthng there would not have been any crisis by now. But China and Russia have had poor democracy. The poor democracy means weak administrations.

I want to know your opinion.

Euro: what about new rise?

Just have a look at the red (probable) bars of the chart

Long term new rise is almost obvious by now, I have catched it at 1.5650, stop 1.5350

I never advise anyone to duplicate my positions.
I guess they are heating up Sterling. And Buba keeps on EURGBP just about 0.8

On the strength of that Euro has started new rising...
I could change my mind in any time

In Q1 I thought we could see USD take initiative action against the crosses, but the micro data simply has not offered up any convincing numbers to suggest rate spreads will move favorably for any length of time. One could think the FED is smoking something suggesting rates could move higher this year, but I'm trading against FED rhetoric and with rate spreads. The FED is just jawboning, while Eurozone rates moving up based on sound data. In recent weeks, the market has realized it was a headfake and unrealistic to anticipate a hike in H2, while we will find out tomorrrow if another hike is in order in eurozone.
The USD rally will come at some stage, but i don't see it yet.
This summer, look for Yen to grind higher as the market "avoids" risk (as opposed to "risk aversion") Risk avoidance is weak upside strength that drops to sellers, but not an all out risk averse move.

Thank you for your kind interesting reply...

Yep. Euro would go down. But it cannot afford such a weakness, while the other grows.

Nice thread with good predictions.
It believe USD will gain in the second half of this year 2008 and most notably in the final quarter of 2008. US FED will be forced to raise rates in a series beginning in September. ECB is going to be forced to cut rates in a series by year end. Since the market is forward looking this EURUSD selloff could start anytime now that Trichet admits no more hikes.

US FED hiking rates will not hurt the economy like many think. Currently we are in a credit crisis (deflation) and no one I know can get a loan, so these low rates mean nothing to us workers. Banks are using the low rates (cheap money/inflation) to build up their coffers (profits) and will begin loaning again when rates go higher late 2008. Banks are making money now and banks will make money when rates rise. As the dollar appreciates it will have a weighing effect on commodities but we will not see less than 2005 prices for the remainder of the Earth. The US will exit one war in 2009 if not both (I pray this is true because odds are it is not). (I also pray Israel does not bomb Iran.)

ECB is being forced by exporting nations to lower rates to be competitive. Also important to note is the high inflation/money printing out of control of Euro Zone leading to rallies in equities and real estate (which is why US is contacting). This inflation must be reduced but cannot afford more rate hikes so credit restrictions must prevail which will pull the EU down into a near recession in the next year.

Food and energy prices will remain higher than 2005 levels as they try to burn off the excess inflation caused by developed nation's excess money printing.

Emerging markets' currencies will appreciate against the exporter's desire and will stifle their exporting capabilities.

Australia who has been guilty of running printing presses 24 hours a day will feel an impact similar to EU's credit crunch and simultaneous deflation. AU will begin a series of rate cuts to keep AU dollar competitive with exporting countries. The rate cuts will not help the necessary deflation and Australia will end up near a recession as well.

Spain and Sweden will seek energy independance in a way few people are considering. Solar farms.

How to profit. When deflation is over in each country it will be time to invest in their real estate and equities for about 7-10 years. Commodities at 2005 levels are very attractive. Renewable energy stocks are going to rally for 20 years especially solar. I like nanosolar if they ever go public. I think nanosolar will go global and public around the same time and their IPO will return 1000% in 5 years.

Just have a look at the yelow (probable) bars of the chart.

Euro is returnig in old (2006-2007) rising trend (20 pips weekly)

Is Euro going the old way after the knockdown?

(one could see the old way above)